IND151
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the final conclusion is absolutely incorrect.. since those reserves will last beyond a "few days"..
But the reduction in war fighting capacity is not wrong.
It also depends on the threat as Pakistan is traditionally bolstered itself along the east..there it holds the infrastructure to sustain an onslaught for at least a week if not more.
for eg.. most independent observers put the PAF with operational capability for around 17 to 25 days until its losses are too great to maintain any significant presence.
The PA is expected to take a battering for over 15 days before its key centre's are overrun(provided it does not take the nuclear option) and the PN is not expected to last beyond a week(except one or two subs).
However, if you replace the threat with say a certain ally then the war capacity shrinks considerably. With that the PAF is not expected to provide any resistance beyond a week and the PN for a few days. Still, the PA is expected to hold out longer due to such an enemy's lack of infrastructure to roll troops on the ground and hold sections without an amphibious operation.
Moreover, for both scenario's.. guerilla operations are not ruled out and it is expected that any final surrender will not come till months after the end of major combat operations.
What is unlikely is that India and our "ally" attack in cohesion since it is still accepted that India has an independent foreign policy and will not be coaxed into playing "toady" to any external power nor will it accept "Help" in responding to any future terror attack.
Again, this assessment was of a war fighting capability where Pakistan is engaged alone.. it would change if Pakistan's closest ally in the north was engaged first and Pakistan response
i don't think Pak Supremos are counting on help from china, at least not completely.
Pak policy will be to try to stop thrusts of IA and IAF and lasting for more than week till when international pressure will force both pak and India to halt war
i don't think Pak will use even tactical nukes because it will be responded by Massive Retaliation by India