Foxbat over Pakistan the facts & fiction

[Bilal Khan 777]

@Oscar @Bilal Khan 777 , speaking to my source who normally sounds like a top notch bank manager or even a professor didn't take kindly when i asked if there was any chance of a mutiny or some form of conspiracy, he totally rejected the idea,
He said, although the Navy boys were keen to go into every corner of the country but the incident he described as pure murder and a despicable act by the IAF just to revenge their Kargil losses.

That is a general theory. Still, internal sabotage or send the plane to an area to be ambushed is still unanswered.

My apologies for being harsh, but this is pure bull shit being spewed here now.

It was a standard case of pure ambush. ATL was on a routine training flight and this wasn't the first flight in the area and talk of non-communications over VHF is in-correct, there was no dedicated communications setup in that area and fighter pilots who have ended up before flying around run of kutch knew that radio communication with base breaks off at times. In those days, going off-track to a few miles is not something new, Atlantics did not have dedicated mapping and GPS subsystems at that time and required an NO to manage navigation.

Bastards have watched such flights before and planned it well in advance with assets in place. But their plan to make it land did not work out, they had a very small window of time to attempt it and shamefully they shot it down on failure. Shooting down an unarmed aircraft in peace-time over international border is not heroic but a dastardly act of cowardice.

This talk of mutiny with a bloody dozen trainees on board is just pure fantasy.

This is your opinion, as I have mine. You can use whatever parlance as you are familiar with through your Civ or Uniform career.

There were no distress calls. ATL is not a fighter aircraft. There were no response on guard channel. I have flown over R&K enough to know what frequencies work and what don't on UHF or HF. The Plane was sufficiently upgraded with latest radar and french suite. There was GPS, and SATCOM on board.

There were no dozen trainees on board, as it was in the Orion crash. The additional number of crew make the aircraft susceptible for struggle, which could be the reason for violent manoeuvres and such as clean attempt to escort the aircraft. All communication between the Indian aircraft and ATL was black. The radio silence is the biggest unexplainable fact, followed by the strange maundering of the aircraft. There are no enemy assets there which would be of concern to a maritime surveillance aircraft.
I maintain that this is the saddest incident in Naval aviation, or Pakistani aviation. However, we are yet to find out all the facts.

 

[Windjammer]

That is a general theory. Still, internal sabotage or send the plane to an area to be ambushed is still unanswered.

1: Had it crashed due to mysterious circumstances then you would be inclined to think along those lines, the MiG HUD shot and the plane crashing in Pakistan territory rules that out.
2: After the Kargil fall out, armed forces would have been on their toes, moreover Nawaz Shariff wasn't the director of operations. The whole idea seems absurd.

 

[ghazi768]

That is a general theory. Still, internal sabotage or send the plane to an area to be ambushed is still unanswered.



This is your opinion, as I have mine. You can use whatever parlance as you are familiar with through your Civ or Uniform career.

There were no distress calls. ATL is not a fighter aircraft. There were no response on guard channel. I have flown over R&K enough to know what frequencies work and what don't on UHF or HF. The Plane was sufficiently upgraded with latest radar and french suite. There was GPS, and SATCOM on board.

There were no dozen trainees on board, as it was in the Orion crash. The additional number of crew make the aircraft susceptible for struggle, which could be the reason for violent manoeuvres and such as clean attempt to escort the aircraft. All communication between the Indian aircraft and ATL was black. The radio silence is the biggest unexplainable fact, followed by the strange maundering of the aircraft. There are no enemy assets there which would be of concern to a maritime surveillance aircraft.
I maintain that this is the saddest incident in Naval aviation, or Pakistani aviation. However, we are yet to find out all the facts.

I do not agree with you. In investigations, almost all angles are investigated but that does not mean if a theory or angle becomes credible by just being investigated. Thinking that some or most among a crew of 12 plus 4 going overboard is still fantasy in my view.

You can check if some of the crew were fresh or not by making calls yourself especially about navigator.

Atlantic was not deep in land it was flying in the coastal area and there was nothing unusual in this.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

I do not agree with you. In investigations, almost all angles are investigated but that does not mean if a theory or angle becomes credible by just being investigated. Thinking that some or most among a crew of 12 plus 4 going overboard is still fantasy in my view.

You can check if some of the crew were fresh or not by making calls yourself especially about navigator.

Atlantic was not deep in land it was flying in the coastal area and there was nothing unusual in this.

Sure, i think you are confusing the indian border with the coastline.

1: Had it crashed due to mysterious circumstances then you would be inclined to think along those lines, the MiG HUD shot and the plane crashing in Pakistan territory rules that out.
2: After the Kargil fall out, armed forces would have been on their toes, moreover Nawaz Shariff wasn't the director of operations. The whole idea seems absurd.

The plane was undertaking a violent turn / bank at low altitude and cartwheeled. He must have lowered the altitude to get out of Indian radar coverage. In the final moments it was not visible to the ATC or Pakistani radar at Korangi, due to low altitude.

The pictures indians claim and online could be doctored, as usually AAMs are not shot at such close range.

 

[Windjammer]

The plane was undertaking a violent turn / bank at low altitude and cartwheeled. He must have lowered the altitude to get out of Indian radar coverage. In the final moments it was not visible to the ATC or Pakistani radar at Korangi, due to low altitude.

The pictures indians claim and online could be doctored, as usually AAMs are not shot at such close range.

Sir, some years later we also lost a P-3.... that was due to pilot error or something but hostile action was ruled out.
If as you say AT. crashed due to evasive action, why would we give undue credit to the Indians and claim that it was a tragic accident.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

Sir, some years later we also lost a P-3.... that was due to pilot error or something but hostile action was ruled out.
If as you say AT. crashed due to evasive action, why would we give undue credit to the Indians and claim that it was a tragic accident.

The Orion crashed a few days later, with a full Sq and UT Sq onboard. The tragedy remains, whatever caused it.

 

[rockstarIN]

I do not agree with you. In investigations, almost all angles are investigated but that does not mean if a theory or angle becomes credible by just being investigated. Thinking that some or most among a crew of 12 plus 4 going overboard is still fantasy in my view.

You can check if some of the crew were fresh or not by making calls yourself especially about navigator.

Atlantic was not deep in land it was flying in the coastal area and there was nothing unusual in this.

Flight path

 

[ghazi768]

Sure, i think you are confusing the indian border with the coastline.



The plane was undertaking a violent turn / bank at low altitude and cartwheeled. He must have lowered the altitude to get out of Indian radar coverage. In the final moments it was not visible to the ATC or Pakistani radar at Korangi, due to low altitude.

The pictures indians claim and online could be doctored, as usually AAMs are not shot at such close range.

I mentioned coastal area not coast line. ATL was also an ELINT for PN.

The crew on flight of ATL-91 had two experienced pilots and 4 experienced crew members. In addition there were two young pilots recently out of PAF Acdm. risalpur and seven or eight sailors on training for different specialisations.

Wether the flight was a training or a surveillance mission, we would not had put a case in ICJ if we did not had in-controvertible proof in shape of radar recordings of two Mig echoes upto 20km inside our border and our flight at 7000 feet before the incidence clearly inside our border and other audio recordings etc. Indian did not win that case on basis of proof but a mere technicality that court had no jurisdiction in that matter.

I know that there were whisperings about ATL crew in some quarters and all investigations will remain classified. If you are a professional you claim to be, you know what can go on when there is a Mig at your wing and tail making demands. Arguments and talk of not surrendering and it being a pure suicide can take place. But in the end after few kms they did maneouvre violently and tried to go down rapidly in hope of using earth to evade the short range AAMs they have been shown but ended up shot down in a dastardly act of cowardice.

 

[IceCold]

. However, we are yet to find out all the facts.

Sir we never find out facts in Pakistan whether its about Zia plane or 71 debacle or how was Osama the most wanted man in the world found in Pakistan which is even more sad. Can it be because of the holier than thou attitude and because somehow the arm forces believe they are above any sort of accountability?

 

[SQ8]

@Oscar @Bilal Khan 777 , speaking to my source who normally sounds like a top notch bank manager or even a professor didn't take kindly when i asked if there was any chance of a mutiny or some form of conspiracy, he totally rejected the idea,
He said, although the Navy boys were keen to go into every corner of the country but the incident he described as pure murder and a despicable act by the IAF just to revenge their Kargil losses.

I dont doubt that the IAF acted outside of operational norms to kill the ATL.

The Orion crashed a few days later, with a full Sq and UT Sq onboard. The tragedy remains, whatever caused it.

That tragedy was engine failure at low altitude. While Engine failure for a four engine P-3 is no issue otherwise, this occurred at around 100 feet AGL while it was using its MAD probe to try and zero in on a PN sub during an exercise.
These pilots were also known to me and consummate professionals, but there is less than a second of warning if you lose an engine at 100 feet and lose altitude.

 

[ghazi768]

I am not a bloody mouth-piece of Gov or PAF or PN and have known enough dark characters and stories to know that all is not hunky and dory and had never been. But is it always essential for us that for every incidence we first go on debating some god damned conspiracy theory before coming back to senses.

If conspiracy theories is all we are here interested in, than go on, call the crew reckless,inept what ever. After all these are the same guys who on seeing an Indian ship in clear blue seas will not give up a chance to 'buzz' it and actually once ended up getting shot at. But calling them treasonous or mutinous is far fetched. They were on a mission whether training or surveillance and were clearly performing within the orders they were given. And I think it is a disservice to them and our nation when every thing points to that bastards next doors had a huge hurt ego and had murder in their heart.

After-all isn't this thread about indian foxbat buzzing over Lahore and else to somehow salvage their egos and in case of ATL flight they actually have the audacity to claim that Atlantic flight was violating a bilateral agreement to not fly with-in 10 kms of international border. Bullshit..

Call PN and PAF leadership what ever names you want for not being cautious enough and unable to read the mindset of IAF at that time right after hostilities ended at Kargil. But haven't Bill of Clinton intervened and Indians were making tall claims of victory and things were looking to cool down. How many airforces send dedicated fighter escorts with patrol aircrafts while not in full hostilities.

Shit does happen.. that is a fact..

Could you call Russian leadership in-ept, not cautious, or not able to read minds of turkish leadership when their bomber (without a fighter escort at that time) was bombing turkmens right at the border, in full view of Turkish F-16s flying at the border?

 

[SQ8]

ELINT mission was considered to be the task allocated. That is the assessment on Indian side. The Fact that the aircraft debris were found 2 kms on Pakistani side of IB, can not rule out airspace violation in the convoluted border region. However, the violation of the 10 km no fly zone was adequately exhibited. Additionally, all accounts have indicated that the IAF fighters were trying to get the PN AC to land and were postured to escort it to the nearest Air Base as directed by ground controllers. So possibility of a shoot in Indian airspace is also there. The data of FDR and CVR is hence of value, which strangely is missing and was never brought out.

Intercept of the PN Atlantique was by Migs ex-45 Sqn, based at Naliya at the time. Open sourced across the net.

@Oscar
Sir. CVRs and FDRs made an appearance in 1950s-60s and the compliance of western manufactured equipment, civil or military, was achieved more or less along with the civil entities. The same was achieved across Soviet Military platforms by early 1970s too.

I am merely intrigued by the claim of the aforementioned professional who has attributed use of CVRs and FDRs to civil usage pre-dominantly. Anyone in any AF will know how seriously such a claim should(should not) be taken.

Pertinent to note, the upgradation of PN Atlantiques was also undertaken with enhancements undertaken to enable Anti-ship role as also ELINT tasking. And this was 1999, so a supposition that no upgradation of the aircraft took place will be pretty far fetched. Additionally, all aircrafts being designed/flying in EU countries or US need to be compliant with the civil safety standards of the said country. A new aircraft will not be certified if it does not meet the civil aviation standards. Holds for the military too.

While CVR usually holds no value for post-flight de-brief and assessment in fighters due to obvious reasons while being a yardstick for evaluation of a pilot in transports, the FDR is valuable for both transports and fighters.

A source for general capability of the platform; the parameters as listed leave me actually incredulous over the claims of CVR and FDR.

http://pakdef.org/breguet-atlantic-1/

I am yet to find any source where I can give specifics of upgrade program undertaken due to paucity of time. Will do so when possible.

However, I request if any error or additional information that you can point out, will be grateful.

Thanks

Thanks for pointing out that Naliya was involved - Because based on the deployment patterns of IAF, Naliya was then housing only a single squadron and Bhuj remained the MoB. Although now all Naliya houses is UAVs.

 

[Hellfire]

Thanks for pointing out that Naliya was involved - Because based on the deployment patterns of IAF, Naliya was then housing only a single squadron and Bhuj remained the MoB. Although now all Naliya houses is UAVs.

That shall be a rotational det deployment for Naliya.

 

[SQ8]

That shall be a rotational det deployment for Naliya.

It has the facilities anyway and is essentially a less used MoB.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

I dont doubt that the IAF acted outside of operational norms to kill the ATL.


That tragedy was engine failure at low altitude. While Engine failure for a four engine P-3 is no issue otherwise, this occurred at around 100 feet AGL while it was using its MAD probe to try and zero in on a PN sub during an exercise.
These pilots were also known to me and consummate professionals, but there is less than a second of warning if you lose an engine at 100 feet and lose altitude.

This was an embargo period, and the PHF/THF and resulting TLF was due to locally manufactured / uncertified parts installed on the T56. A very expensive lesson.

I am not a bloody mouth-piece of Gov or PAF or PN and have known enough dark characters and stories to know that all is not hunky and dory and had never been. But is it always essential for us that for every incidence we first go on debating some god damned conspiracy theory before coming back to senses.

If conspiracy theories is all we are here interested in, than go on, call the crew reckless,inept what ever. After all these are the same guys who on seeing an Indian ship in clear blue seas will not give up a chance to 'buzz' it and actually once ended up getting shot at. But calling them treasonous or mutinous is far fetched. They were on a mission whether training or surveillance and were clearly performing within the orders they were given. And I think it is a disservice to them and our nation when every thing points to that bastards next doors had a huge hurt ego and had murder in their heart.

After-all isn't this thread about indian foxbat buzzing over Lahore and else to somehow salvage their egos and in case of ATL flight they actually have the audacity to claim that Atlantic flight was violating a bilateral agreement to not fly with-in 10 kms of international border. Bullshit..

Call PN and PAF leadership what ever names you want for not being cautious enough and unable to read the mindset of IAF at that time right after hostilities ended at Kargil. But haven't Bill of Clinton intervened and Indians were making tall claims of victory and things were looking to cool down. How many airforces send dedicated fighter escorts with patrol aircrafts while not in full hostilities.

Shit does happen.. that is a fact..

Could you call Russian leadership in-ept, not cautious, or not able to read minds of turkish leadership when their bomber (without a fighter escort at that time) was bombing turkmens right at the border, in full view of Turkish F-16s flying at the border?

My gripe would only be with the one who gave the order for the aircraft to be sent to the TRN area, or the one who changed the flight plan. I have all the respect for the departed, since they are not here to defend themselves.

I mentioned coastal area not coast line. ATL was also an ELINT for PN.

The crew on flight of ATL-91 had two experienced pilots and 4 experienced crew members. In addition there were two young pilots recently out of PAF Acdm. risalpur and seven or eight sailors on training for different specialisations.

Wether the flight was a training or a surveillance mission, we would not had put a case in ICJ if we did not had in-controvertible proof in shape of radar recordings of two Mig echoes upto 20km inside our border and our flight at 7000 feet before the incidence clearly inside our border and other audio recordings etc. Indian did not win that case on basis of proof but a mere technicality that court had no jurisdiction in that matter.

I know that there were whisperings about ATL crew in some quarters and all investigations will remain classified. If you are a professional you claim to be, you know what can go on when there is a Mig at your wing and tail making demands. Arguments and talk of not surrendering and it being a pure suicide can take place. But in the end after few kms they did maneouvre violently and tried to go down rapidly in hope of using earth to evade the short range AAMs they have been shown but ended up shot down in a dastardly act of cowardice.

I knew most of them. Read earlier that this is the saddest incident of my career. No disagreements with your statements, but the last manoeuvres of the aircraft are easily in contradiction to the doctored AAM picture used by the Indians, from underneath the aircraft nose up and such range where the AAM would not even lock. The aircraft probably cartwheeled at low altitude when challenged by the Migs to land at Bhuj.

Flight path

View attachment 323022

Indian claim for the flight path is a correct label. Very interesting is the Actual Indian AD map shows MPDR90 at Talhar, which is quite interesting.