Fall of Kabul: How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory

[third eye]

How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory | The Express Tribune

Islamabad couldn't foresee dangers of the militant’s return to power, ensuing threats to its security

tribune.com.pk

ISLAMABAD:
In February 2021, the top US general was on a visit to Pakistan. General Frank McKenzie, the Centcom chief, was visiting just months before the withdrawal of the US-led foreign forces as part of the Doha deal signed between the Trump administration and the Afghan Taliban.

At the GHQ, his meeting with then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa focused on Afghanistan particularly the post-US withdrawal scenario.

The US general was keen to have Pakistan's assessment on one key question: How long would it take for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul after the US withdrawal?

Pakistan's assessment mattered the most, both because of its close proximity to Afghanistan and its historic linkages with the Taliban.

Gen Bajwa, as per the assessment of Pakistan's security agencies, had informed Gen Mackenzie that the Afghan Taliban might make inroads capturing other parts of the country but taking control of Kabul wouldn't be a cakewalk.

These details are available with The Express Tribune based on some background interactions with relevant people as August 15 marks the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul.

According to the Pakistani army chief, the Afghan Taliban forces would be met with stiff resistance from the Afghan National Army (ANA) when they would try to capture Kabul.

Gen Bajwa believed that it could take a year or more for the Afghan Taliban to regain power in Kabul after the US withdrawal.

He told the American general that during this period, the international community would have sufficient time to persuade all groups to agree on an inclusive government.

When President Biden finally announced the withdrawal date, the US intelligence community too came with their own assessment.


Initially, the US intelligence claimed that it could take 9 months for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul.

That assessment was later revised as the US security agencies predicted the fall of Kabul within three months of the US withdrawal.

The revised intelligence assessment was based on the rapid capitulation of provinces after provinces to the Afghan Taliban as the US-led foreign forces began their withdrawal.

However, even as the last batches of US forces were preparing to leave the war-torn country, the Afghan Taliban were at the gates of Kabul and the ANA had vanished.

The embattled President Ashraf Ghani flew out of the country in a hurry, leaving the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul without shedding any blood on the streets of the Afghan capital.

The speed with which Kabul fell to the Afghan Taliban exposed the faulty intelligence of both the US and Pakistani intelligence communities.

It was not just the Kabul fall where Pakistan's assessment went wrong. Islamabad couldn't foresee the dangers of the Afghan Taliban’s return to power and the ensuing threats to its security.

Pakistan at the time of Taliban’s victory thought it would help the country.

The first and foremost expectation of Pakistan was that the Afghan Taliban would deal with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Two years on, the number of cross border attacks by the TTP has been on the rise.

The Afghan Taliban have refused to take action against the TTP, something that compelled Pakistani officials now to admit that the TTP and the Afghan Taliban are "ideological cousins''.

The TTP problem has threatened to unravel the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban.

 

[JonAsad]

General Frank McKenzie thought ISI is an intelligence agency ha ha ha

 

[Areesh]

Matlab General Bajwa aur Major Gaurav Arya ka military acumen aik jaisa tha

Both thought Taliban won't be able to capture Kabul easily

 

[Commoner]

Afghanistan has a treacherous geography that locals are familiar with. We, outsiders, can only make calculations as per experiences in our terrain.

 

[S.Y.A]

Matlab General Bajwa aur Major Gaurav Arya ka military acumen aik jaisa tha

Both thought Taliban won't be able to capture Kabul easily

they may have been basing their predictions based on what had happened after soviet withdrawal. the commie regime held out for a long time against both mujahideen factions and the taliban later on.

what is surprising is the speed with which the ANA melted away. only the panjshiris held out for a bit.

 

[maithil]

Hahaha... GHQ making Americans Chu***A again and again.

 

[jhungary]

not sure about Pakistan, we all know the war is over when Trump sign that deal with Taliban and pull troop out, you don't even need to wait until August 13, 2021, to know, you know then if US sign peace deal with Taliban they are going back to power.

What we were all hoping for is for Biden to reverse that, but the political hurdle is just too great for Biden to do anything, even the Dem didn't want to change that deal and you can't roll over a signed treaty by a sitting president without congress approval.

 

[One_Nation]

This has not much to do with intelligence. Its more to do with reading into Afghan culture which invaders fail to do.
There was nothing intact in Afghanistan. Americans failed to create any system that could work on its own. Afghan army was enacting fake battles to keep the flow of dollars going, government was stealing aid dollars. Even if there were no Taliban, that fake system would have collapsed due to infighting or civil war.
Taliban were an organized mob. They would have taken over even if they didn't have any weapons.
No one can forecast the outcome from a broken society.

 

[ziaulislam]

How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory | The Express Tribune

Islamabad couldn't foresee dangers of the militant’s return to power, ensuing threats to its security

tribune.com.pk

View attachment 945993

ISLAMABAD:
In February 2021, the top US general was on a visit to Pakistan. General Frank McKenzie, the Centcom chief, was visiting just months before the withdrawal of the US-led foreign forces as part of the Doha deal signed between the Trump administration and the Afghan Taliban.

At the GHQ, his meeting with then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa focused on Afghanistan particularly the post-US withdrawal scenario.

The US general was keen to have Pakistan's assessment on one key question: How long would it take for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul after the US withdrawal?

Pakistan's assessment mattered the most, both because of its close proximity to Afghanistan and its historic linkages with the Taliban.

Gen Bajwa, as per the assessment of Pakistan's security agencies, had informed Gen Mackenzie that the Afghan Taliban might make inroads capturing other parts of the country but taking control of Kabul wouldn't be a cakewalk.

These details are available with The Express Tribune based on some background interactions with relevant people as August 15 marks the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul.

According to the Pakistani army chief, the Afghan Taliban forces would be met with stiff resistance from the Afghan National Army (ANA) when they would try to capture Kabul.

Gen Bajwa believed that it could take a year or more for the Afghan Taliban to regain power in Kabul after the US withdrawal.

He told the American general that during this period, the international community would have sufficient time to persuade all groups to agree on an inclusive government.

When President Biden finally announced the withdrawal date, the US intelligence community too came with their own assessment.


Initially, the US intelligence claimed that it could take 9 months for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul.

That assessment was later revised as the US security agencies predicted the fall of Kabul within three months of the US withdrawal.

The revised intelligence assessment was based on the rapid capitulation of provinces after provinces to the Afghan Taliban as the US-led foreign forces began their withdrawal.

However, even as the last batches of US forces were preparing to leave the war-torn country, the Afghan Taliban were at the gates of Kabul and the ANA had vanished.

The embattled President Ashraf Ghani flew out of the country in a hurry, leaving the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul without shedding any blood on the streets of the Afghan capital.

The speed with which Kabul fell to the Afghan Taliban exposed the faulty intelligence of both the US and Pakistani intelligence communities.

It was not just the Kabul fall where Pakistan's assessment went wrong. Islamabad couldn't foresee the dangers of the Afghan Taliban’s return to power and the ensuing threats to its security.

Pakistan at the time of Taliban’s victory thought it would help the country.

The first and foremost expectation of Pakistan was that the Afghan Taliban would deal with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Two years on, the number of cross border attacks by the TTP has been on the rise.

The Afghan Taliban have refused to take action against the TTP, something that compelled Pakistani officials now to admit that the TTP and the Afghan Taliban are "ideological cousins''.

The TTP problem has threatened to unravel the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban.

Ok so now ISI is the good guy of the story

not sure about Pakistan, we all know the war is over when Trump sign that deal with Taliban and pull troop out, you don't even need to wait until August 13, 2021, to know, you know then if US sign peace deal with Taliban they are going back to power.

What we were all hoping for is for Biden to reverse that, but the political hurdle is just too great for Biden to do anything, even the Dem didn't want to change that deal and you can't roll over a signed treaty by a sitting president without congress approval.

Lol of course you can
Treaties have no value for super powers

Biden simply agreed with trump

Matlab General Bajwa aur Major Gaurav Arya ka military acumen aik jaisa tha

Both thought Taliban won't be able to capture Kabul easily

Common man in the street knew it and they didn't..

People were fed up with govt just like how they are in Pakistan and that's a scary preposition for us

 

[TheSolution]

Hard to believe Pakistan didn't know

I mean the smile on Faiz Hameed's face said everything, there was no shock or distaste...

 

[FuturePAF]

they may have been basing their predictions based on what had happened after soviet withdrawal. the commie regime held out for a long time against both mujahideen factions and the taliban later on.

what is surprising is the speed with which the ANA melted away. only the panjshiris held out for a bit.

The Taliban were united in comparison with mujahideen factions against the post-Soviet regime.

The slow motion withdrawal since the ISAF mission changed in 2014 also exposed that the ANA, outside of the supposedly 30k commando force was a poorly managed and poorly motivated paramilitary, barely better then a warlord’s militia.

The corrupt government and ineffective fighting forces of the GoRoA (Government of the Republic of Afghanistan) were their own undoing, more so than the Talibs.

 

[jhungary]

Ok so now ISI is the good guy of the story


Lol of course you can
Treaties have no value for super powers

Biden simply agreed with trump

Dude, Biden delayed that as long as he can, if he agreed with Trump, he would have pack up back in May

Even Mark Esper, Trump's SecDef, did not agree with him, and you think Biden administration did??

Former defense secretary says Trump 'undermined' US deal with the Taliban by rushing withdrawal of troops

"President Trump, by continuing to want to withdraw American forces out of Afghanistan, undermined the agreement," Mark Esper told CNN.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[FuturePAF]

Hard to believe Pakistan didn't know

I mean the smile on Faiz Hameed's face said everything, there was no shock or distaste...

IMHO, he probably figured he could talk the Afghans into seeing it the Pakistani way, considering the Afghans had no other options, but the Afghans flush with the sense of victory weren’t ready to talk or be seen as talking to Pakistan.

The Afghans take time to adjust to their new realities, especially after they almost went to war with the Iranians, the Russians screwed themselves (and the Central Asian republics in a way) in a war in Ukraine, and the Chinese want to do business but alongside their regional partner Pakistan.

Dude, Biden delayed that as long as he can, if he agreed with Trump, he would have pack up back in May

Even Mark Esper, Trump's SecDef, did not agree with him, and you think Biden administration did??

Former defense secretary says Trump 'undermined' US deal with the Taliban by rushing withdrawal of troops

"President Trump, by continuing to want to withdraw American forces out of Afghanistan, undermined the agreement," Mark Esper told CNN.

www.businessinsider.com

Biden wanted to pull out in 2009, at the start of the Obama Administration. Obama didn’t like the optics, but Biden was right to pull the pull on a pointless mission.

 

[VkdIndian]

The assessment of Taliban‘s capability or speed to capture Kabul has no meaning, once US had decided to leave Afghan soil.

When ISI chief landed in Kabul with a cup of tea in one hand and a cunning smirk, it didn’t give any indication of a surprise, but that of triumph. As if GHQ achieved what it tried to. That turned sour very soon, when Taliban showed two fingers rather than playing ball as assessed by GHQ.

Hence, ISI and GHQ have a bigger setback to answer to. That is their wrong assessment of how Taliban’s would conduct their business after they came to power.

 

[FuturePAF]

The assessment of Taliban‘s capability or speed to capture Kabul has no meaning, once US had decided to leave Afghan soil.

When ISI chief landed in Kabul with a cup of tea in one hand and a cunning smirk, it didn’t give any indication of a surprise, but that of triumph. As if GHQ achieved what it tried to. That turned sour very soon, when Taliban showed two fingers rather than playing ball as assessed by GHQ.

Hence, ISI and GHQ have a bigger failure to answer to. That is their wrong assessment of how Taliban’s would conduct their business after they came to power.

Not a failure, just a set back in a never ending mission of securing the border with a tribal based nation.

They have to retool with economics and politics. The Afghan society is most similar to parts of Pakistani society, so now it is about managing the relationship.

Pakistan hedged its bets over the last 20 years considering what happened with the Soviets, and the way they rejected the imposition of an alien culture on a tribal society. 40 years of cultural osmosis (since the Afghan refugees came over after 1979) by Pakistan was a better strategy, after the Russians presented the opportunity with their invasion.

It’s a messy process, and the US should have seen it from the Pakistani point of view from the start, but the squandered the post Soviet space in central Asia and if they don’t reconcile with Pakistan, they will be giving away the central Asian space to the Chinese.

Pakistan failed to predict the Talib victory in so much that they didn’t know the exact date but for the last few years could see the inevitability of the Talib’s victory, which can be proved when the Taibs opened their office in Doha staffed by former Talibs officials, some from Pakistani jails, such as Mullah Baradar if I’m not mistaken.

The late Richard Holbrooke tried to understand the problem better and literally died talking to Hilary Clinton face to face at her desk (if I remember correctly). An advocate for some kind of realistic reconciliation between US and Pakistan’s interests build a common long term strategy.

2009:

Pakistan with 120,000 troops did remarkable things in pushing back the TTP, but needed help in building up the economy which would support the writ of the state.

2013:

Holbrooke’s last words to his Pakistani surgeon: “You’ve got to stop this war in Afghanistan”.