Fall of Kabul: How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory

[Kharral]

Matlab General Bajwa aur Major Gaurav Arya ka military acumen aik jaisa tha

Both thought Taliban won't be able to capture Kabul easily

At least Major Gaurav Arya isn’t getting cussed like a bitch in front of his family in a foreign country.

 

[TheSolution]

The assessment of Taliban‘s capability or speed to capture Kabul has no meaning, once US had decided to leave Afghan soil.

When ISI chief landed in Kabul with a cup of tea in one hand and a cunning smirk, it didn’t give any indication of a surprise, but that of triumph. As if GHQ achieved what it tried to. That turned sour very soon, when Taliban showed two fingers rather than playing ball as assessed by GHQ.

Hence, ISI and GHQ have a bigger setback to answer to. That is their wrong assessment of how Taliban’s would conduct their business after they came to power.

What you fail to realise is that even though the relationship between TTA and Pakistan is sour, GHQ still got a strategic victory.

They had two options:

Option 1: Western-ally Afghanistan with a huge American-equipped army that is internationally recognised and hostile. (Don't forget they regularly attacked Pakistan on the border)

Option 2: Globally Isolated 'extremist' government with left-over equipment that is hostile

You need to look at the history of Afghanistan-Pakistan to realise that there was never going to be a perfect government in power to begin with, because Afghanistan essentially has a land dispute which means they can't ignore it.

Ultimately the final solution for Pakistan may have to eventually be some kind of war and supporting Tajik separatists.

 

[VkdIndian]

Not a failure, just a set back

Agreed.
Modified the post and changed to setback.

It is definitely a difficult task to manage that part, due to troubled history over many decades. How well the task was handled would still be asked. Difficult and demanding tasks are accomplished by many nations and can’t be a reason for so many setbacks as faced by your nation.

Hedging bets is based on assessment of a situation. That seems to have gone wrong in this case. ISI had access to Taliban like no other and it was it’s job to give inputs in this regard. Did they do it well? That would still remain a tough question that they have to answer to. This is not the first time either.

but the squandered the post Soviet space in central Asia and if they don’t reconcile with Pakistan, they will be giving away the central Asian space to the Chinese.

US had nothing to loose in this region. Paksiatn had everything on the block and it failed in assessing it. When Zia was in control, he wanted the pot to remain on boil just enough for US aid to keep coming. What was he thinking? To keep the neighbourhood on boil but not foreseeing a spillover in the adjoining regions? A region that had common culture, language and social fabric.

Today’s unrest on the western borders of your’s have roots that go a long way. More, one looks into it, more, it looks like a botched handling. Doesn’t look pretty on Paksiatn, from any angle whatsoever.

 

[FuturePAF]

Agreed.
Modified the post and changed to setback.

It is definitely a difficult task to manage that part, due to troubled history over many decades. How well the task was handled would always be asked.

Hedging bets is based on assessment of a situation. That seems to have gone wrong in this case. ISI had access to Taliban like no other and it was it’s job to give inputs in this regard. Did they do it well? That would still remain a tough question that they have to answer to. This is not the first time either.

US had nothing to loose in this region. Paksiatn had everything on the block and it failed in assessing it. When Zia was in control, he wanted the pot to remain on boil just enough for US aid to keep coming. What was he thinking? To keep the neighbourhood on boil but not foreseeing a spillover in the adjoining regions? A region that had common culture, language and social fabric.

Today’s unrest on the western borders of your’s have a roots that go a long way. More one looks into it, more it looks like a botched handling. Doesn’t look pretty on Paksiatn, from any angle whatsoever.

It’s gonna be a rough decade, but the silver lining is that the whole of Pakistani society is changing and that gives the opportunity for our decision makers to retool and rebuild their image so the next 40 years.

Military officers have limited objectives so they have a realistic goal to achieve. The have to fight one battle at a time.

It’s the think tank and foreign office strategists that should be formulating a 20,30,40 year nation strategy.

See my post, I updated with interesting videos to full explain out my point of view. Cultural change is the only way to change a bordering nation to learn to live with you. Look at India prior to Modi, Pakistan always tried to compete and build back up its own cultural products in similar ways as the Indian products; such as via the movies and music over the last 50 years as our own movie/drama industries shrivel up.

Modi’s rise was the greatest thing to build up the image of the openly and actively irredentist hostile neighbor, while prior to Modi, india was doing so but quietly. This image undermined India’s cultural influence in Pakistan and for nearly a decade, Pakistan’s are looking less to Indian media for culture, and looking to build back up their own cultural products.

 

[IceCold]

It's upon the US General that he took the words of Pakistani Genralz at their face value.

 

[MH.Yang]

not sure about Pakistan, we all know the war is over when Trump sign that deal with Taliban and pull troop out, you don't even need to wait until August 13, 2021, to know, you know then if US sign peace deal with Taliban they are going back to power.

What we were all hoping for is for Biden to reverse that, but the political hurdle is just too great for Biden to do anything, even the Dem didn't want to change that deal and you can't roll over a signed treaty by a sitting president without congress approval.

Whatever bad thing happens in America is Trump's fault?

Are you studying Modi blaming the Congress party?

 

[Kaniska]

How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory | The Express Tribune

Islamabad couldn't foresee dangers of the militant’s return to power, ensuing threats to its security

tribune.com.pk

View attachment 945993

ISLAMABAD:
In February 2021, the top US general was on a visit to Pakistan. General Frank McKenzie, the Centcom chief, was visiting just months before the withdrawal of the US-led foreign forces as part of the Doha deal signed between the Trump administration and the Afghan Taliban.

At the GHQ, his meeting with then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa focused on Afghanistan particularly the post-US withdrawal scenario.

The US general was keen to have Pakistan's assessment on one key question: How long would it take for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul after the US withdrawal?

Pakistan's assessment mattered the most, both because of its close proximity to Afghanistan and its historic linkages with the Taliban.

Gen Bajwa, as per the assessment of Pakistan's security agencies, had informed Gen Mackenzie that the Afghan Taliban might make inroads capturing other parts of the country but taking control of Kabul wouldn't be a cakewalk.

These details are available with The Express Tribune based on some background interactions with relevant people as August 15 marks the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul.

According to the Pakistani army chief, the Afghan Taliban forces would be met with stiff resistance from the Afghan National Army (ANA) when they would try to capture Kabul.

Gen Bajwa believed that it could take a year or more for the Afghan Taliban to regain power in Kabul after the US withdrawal.

He told the American general that during this period, the international community would have sufficient time to persuade all groups to agree on an inclusive government.

When President Biden finally announced the withdrawal date, the US intelligence community too came with their own assessment.


Initially, the US intelligence claimed that it could take 9 months for the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul.

That assessment was later revised as the US security agencies predicted the fall of Kabul within three months of the US withdrawal.

The revised intelligence assessment was based on the rapid capitulation of provinces after provinces to the Afghan Taliban as the US-led foreign forces began their withdrawal.

However, even as the last batches of US forces were preparing to leave the war-torn country, the Afghan Taliban were at the gates of Kabul and the ANA had vanished.

The embattled President Ashraf Ghani flew out of the country in a hurry, leaving the Afghan Taliban to take control of Kabul without shedding any blood on the streets of the Afghan capital.

The speed with which Kabul fell to the Afghan Taliban exposed the faulty intelligence of both the US and Pakistani intelligence communities.

It was not just the Kabul fall where Pakistan's assessment went wrong. Islamabad couldn't foresee the dangers of the Afghan Taliban’s return to power and the ensuing threats to its security.

Pakistan at the time of Taliban’s victory thought it would help the country.

The first and foremost expectation of Pakistan was that the Afghan Taliban would deal with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Two years on, the number of cross border attacks by the TTP has been on the rise.

The Afghan Taliban have refused to take action against the TTP, something that compelled Pakistani officials now to admit that the TTP and the Afghan Taliban are "ideological cousins''.

The TTP problem has threatened to unravel the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban.

The difference between the US and the rest of the world's military thinkers is their approach to seeing things beyond 10-20-30 years. It is only Pakistan or someone who is deluded about their foreign policy, can believe that US lost the war and the Taliban got a visible victory in this region.

US - Taliban made a deal where the US is no longer ready to spend money for a useless exercise that was quite unpopular within America itself. I may be wrong, but I fear, the Taliban may have made some deal that will eventually work for US interests in this region in return of backchannel support with their economy.
At the end of the day, everyone knows who created the Taliban and their group. So it is nothing unexpected if US - Tabs become goody-goody friends where they will find some common ground to fight against an invisible enemy.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The Pak Deep State was like hands and gloves behind the fall of Kabul.....

Why do you think they had to depose IK to placate the US anger? President Biden (aka the US Deep State) openly wanted a "punishment" for the high "crime(s)" Pak had been committing....

As for the Pak Deep State, the Pak-Afgan border produces $1b of "trade" per day with a "share" for the CIA. The rest are all Fasa Fiso....

 

[Mirzali Khan]

This image undermined India’s cultural influence in Pakistan and for nearly a decade, Pakistan’s are looking less to Indian media for culture, and looking to build back up their own cultural products.

No.

SRK’s movie “Pathaan” was loved by Pakistanis. Many Pakistani people watched it despite it being an anti-Pakistani movie and undermined Pakistan’s position on Kashmir lol.

 

[Kaniska]

No.

SRK’s movie “Pathaan” was loved by Pakistanis. Many Pakistani people watched it despite it being an anti-Pakistani movie and undermined Pakistan’s position on Kashmir lol.

One of the most interesting things that Pakistan's SRK fans forget it. In one extreme situation, any Indian Muslim can be an anti-BJP, anti-VHP but SRK/Indian Muslim is as patriotic to his country as any BJP/Congress of name anyone in India...The same thing even goes well for AIMM chief Owasi too...So it is really interesting when Pakistan showers their love and affection for all the Bollywood stars with an assumption and hopes that if any choices are given SRK/Indian Muslims will incline towards Pakistan's public views than India's.

So in a nutshell, anyone who is an SRK fan can not be hating India or our culture. it is contradictory to each other.

 

[FuturePAF]

One of the most interesting things that Pakistan's SRK fans forget it. In one extreme situation, any Indian Muslim can be an anti-BJP, anti-VHP but SRK/Indian Muslim is as patriotic to his country as any BJP/Congress of name anyone in India...The same thing even goes well for AIMM chief Owasi too...So it is really interesting when Pakistan showers their love and affection for all the Bollywood stars with an assumption and hopes that if any choices are given SRK/Indian Muslims will incline towards Pakistan's public views than India's.

So in a nutshell, anyone who is an SRK fan can not be hating India or our culture. it is contradictory to each other.

SRK was an actor of a previous era. When the reign of the Bollywood Khans fully end, there won’t be anyone the Pakistani public will look to in the same way.

 

[VkdIndian]

This image undermined India’s cultural influence in Pakistan and for nearly a decade, Pakistan’s are looking less to Indian media for culture, and looking to build back up their own cultural products.

Current power centres in India aren‘t bothered about it. A decision was taken to stop any goodie goodie interactions and take any measure necessary to curtail connections with Paksiatn.

It was good for your nation since it has spurred your own entertainment industry. Seems that everyone is happy.

As far as strategic decision making goes, Paksiatn has a long way to go. Every foreign policy decision appears to be a knee jerk reaction, rather than well thought out one. Main problem is involvement of the Establishment in all policy making. Their vision can never be as wide or game changing as a deft and pragmatic politician. I don’t see any change in that regard.

Your nation needs a charismatic political leader with enough clout to charter a path of his/her own. IK is out for few years. Is there anyone else? I don’t see any.

 

[Kaniska]

SRK was an actor of a previous era. When the reign of the Bollywood Khans fully end, there won’t be anyone the Pakistani public will look to in the same way.

You did not understand my question. Even if the previous era generation, these facts hold true. Either your previous generation was under misunderstanding about the patriotism of our Bollywood stars or the Pakistan population in general did not have so much hatred as it exists today.

 

[hussain0216]

Hard to believe Pakistan didn't know

I mean the smile on Faiz Hameed's face said everything, there was no shock or distaste...

Pakistan knew
ISI knew


People are idiots, they think. Little TTP fall out is some great unforseen cost when it was entirely predictable and predicted by our planners

The aim was always straight forward, pull the rug from underneath the Afghan Republic and Indias alliance and completely dismantle afghani nationalism

The Taliban can be made to see sense, THEY NEED A FRIENDLY PAKISTAN for any development in Afghanistan and whilst their is TTP fallout, steps are also being made to counter it and Taliban have made some positive moves


Seeing how bent out of shape the afghanis, the lar aur bar types and the wannabe Afghans are tells you EVERYTHING about how hard we hit them


It was always going to be a 5-10 year period to get the TTP under control and sufficient destroyed and then the aim will be to develop the resources of both Afghanistan and Pakistan

 

[Khan_patriot]

The only reason the TTA was able to take over so quickly was because there wasn’t any coherent front left to counter them, the ANA pretty much vaporised in a fortnight. Every outside stakeholder was either banking on TTA victory or was apathetic. The only way a complete TTA takeover could have been delayed was by continual US support to the ANA or propping up a new “indigenous” anti-TTA faction but the US just didn’t have the appetite for either. A swift TTA takeover was always over the horizon and everyone knew it, whether they chose to acknowledge it or not is a different matter.