Fall of Kabul: How US, Pakistan failed to predict Taliban victory

[MH.Yang]

I don't know if anything bad happened to America it's Trump's fault but signing that treaty with Taliban is a big mistake, he signs that, knowing the Ghani government is not going to be able to sustain their attack alone and sidelining the Ghani government as well, and then singlehandedly raise the withdraw limit. Esper want 4500 to remain in Afghanistan by 2021, Trump left 1500, and took out the entirety of the Air Power and by the time Taliban took over, less than 1000 was in country, you can't hold the entire country with 1000 US Troop.

So yes, that's Trump fault, you can ask any Afghan vet and they will say the same thing. You don't need to be in the military to know that's it is the end when he signs that treaty, 20 years of effort he ended it to try to save his presidency which he couldn't anyway

Without the support of the Afghans, the Taliban could not have survived and seized power after 20 years of being purged by the United States.

So the real mistake was that instead of bringing bread and jobs to Afghans, several US presidents dropped bombs on their heads.

Trump put an end to this senseless drain on US national power. He was the only one who made the right choice.

 

[jhungary]

Without the support of the Afghans, the Taliban could not have survived and seized power after 20 years of being purged by the United States.

So the real mistake was that instead of bringing bread and jobs to Afghans, several US presidents dropped bombs on their heads.

Trump put an end to this senseless drain on US national power. He was the only one who made the right choice.

That's where you were wrong. Taliban is only existed in Afghanistan in a very small portion, majority of support for Taliban is not coming from Afghanistan itself, it was from neighbouring country such as Iran, Yemen and thru Pakistani TTP, especially in Yemen when Taliban was literally harboured by the Yemen houthis rebel.

Nobody is arguing whether or not the US Troop should leave Afghanistan, again, we are not trying to make Afghanistan 51st state of the USA. We are not going to be there forever, the method of pulling troop out is what people disagreed on. And again, you don't pull EVERYTHING OUT like Trump did back in 20/21, 85% of US troop and about 60% of ISAF troop was pull out just in the 14 months of the signing the deal, which again, was not consulted with Afghan government and we assume Afghan force can fill that vacuum that quickly? Even if Afghan force is not as corrupt as it is, even a competent force needs half a decade to a decade for transition, we gave South Vietnam 4 years from 71 with the draw down and it still went to shit in 75, you expect afghan can do it in 18 months?

The right choice is to leave a token force in Afghan until the situation stabilised. Either with further talks with Taliban or trying to strengthen Afghan National Army position. The problem is, while nobody actually believe Ghani will be able to hold the country alone, but the better solution is Ghani to form a government with Taliban, which would considered a win/win from both side, but that is not to be, and all these because Trump pull the card under the dominos.

 

[indushek]

The difference between the US and the rest of the world's military thinkers is their approach to seeing things beyond 10-20-30 years. It is only Pakistan or someone who is deluded about their foreign policy, can believe that US lost the war and the Taliban got a visible victory in this region.

US - Taliban made a deal where the US is no longer ready to spend money for a useless exercise that was quite unpopular within America itself. I may be wrong, but I fear, the Taliban may have made some deal that will eventually work for US interests in this region in return of backchannel support with their economy.
At the end of the day, everyone knows who created the Taliban and their group. So it is nothing unexpected if US - Tabs become goody-goody friends where they will find some common ground to fight against an invisible enemy.

There are games within games there, US holds Afghan money. The group that sat in UAE and made a sort of peace agreement between US and Talibs, is now sidelined. However the differences are in the way Taliban governs, and not on main stuff as of now.

One of the key points, was that the Taliban will not let their land be used for grooming of any Terrorist organizations. This is the reason why we saw Taliban fighting ISIS

The current generation of Talibs who moved into positions are fighters, and aren't yet fully into administration games. This is the reason many of them getting bored of sitting in offices, are going and joining organizations like ISIS or Daesh. So its basically Talib vs Talib in a different form. Am talking of local leaders here

Once the Central leadership gets full control, and gets some form of structure like a jirga or whatever going its then that US and others will recognize them. Essentially US and Talibs are friends now, just that the games haven't started yet given the unsettled situation.

I might be reaching but, if tomorrow the Talibs through TTP make some headway in Pakistan's tribal areas US might make sounds but look the other way. That region is a kettle on slow boil.

 

[One_Nation]

That's where you were wrong. Taliban is only existed in Afghanistan in a very small portion, majority of support for Taliban is not coming from Afghanistan itself, it was from neighbouring country such as Iran, Yemen and thru Pakistani TTP, especially in Yemen when Taliban was literally harboured by the Yemen houthis rebel.

Taliban were always there among their people. They never needed any external support.
They were collecting taxes, they were making money from drugs, they even got a chunk of US aid money. Afghan army soldiers were selling their weapons to them.

 

[jhungary]

Taliban were always there among their people. They never needed any external support.
They were collecting taxes, they were making money from drugs, they even got a chunk of US aid money. Afghan army soldiers were selling their weapons to them.


View attachment 946291

Well, I would say, the issue here is that we can fight only what we can see. We can't see into people's head which is why the ideology, not the Taliban, is extremely dangerous. I mean you can literally show up on an ISAF base in the morning acting all normal and selling whatever you are selling to the ISAF troop, while you harbor that ideology at night.

Physical support though, is different, and that's what I was talking about.

 

[nahtanbob]

not sure about Pakistan, we all know the war is over when Trump sign that deal with Taliban and pull troop out, you don't even need to wait until August 13, 2021, to know, you know then if US sign peace deal with Taliban they are going back to power.

What we were all hoping for is for Biden to reverse that, but the political hurdle is just too great for Biden to do anything, even the Dem didn't want to change that deal and you can't roll over a signed treaty by a sitting president without congress approval.

Biden decided American lives weren't worth Afghan lives

It is today's equivalent of

“The Balkans aren't worth the life of a single Pomeranian grenadier.”
― Otto von Bismarck

 

[LeGenD]

Hard to believe Pakistan didn't know

I mean the smile on Faiz Hameed's face said everything, there was no shock or distaste...

Situationer: Can Kabul ‘edict’ ease anti-TTP pressure from Pakistan?

Militant attacks in KP recorded a 93.6 per cent spike from January to June 2021 and 2022.

www.dawn.com

Who is smiling now?

I am very disappointed in Pakistani intelligentsia. These people think that they can control militant organizations and do not care about loss of lives in Pakistan. Civilians or Troops - both are expendable.

 

[TheSolution]

What you fail to realise is that even though the relationship between TTA and Pakistan is sour, GHQ still got a strategic victory.

They had two options:

Option 1: Western-ally Afghanistan with a huge American-equipped army that is internationally recognised and hostile. (Don't forget they regularly attacked Pakistan on the border)

Option 2: Globally Isolated 'extremist' government with left-over equipment that is hostile

You need to look at the history of Afghanistan-Pakistan to realise that there was never going to be a perfect government in power to begin with, because Afghanistan essentially has a land dispute which means they can't ignore it.

Ultimately the final solution for Pakistan may have to eventually be some kind of war and supporting Tajik separatists.

@LeGenD

Read this perspective

 

[epebble]

Situationer: Can Kabul ‘edict’ ease anti-TTP pressure from Pakistan?

Militant attacks in KP recorded a 93.6 per cent spike from January to June 2021 and 2022.

www.dawn.com

Who is smiling now?

I am very disappointed in Pakistani intelligentsia. These people think that they can control militant organizations and do not care about loss of lives in Pakistan. Civilians or Troops - both are expendable.

Is there any evidence that Pakistan military is particularly unhappy or dissatisfied with the current state of affairs? What would have been their ideal?

 

[hussain0216]

Is there any evidence that Pakistan military is particularly unhappy or dissatisfied with the current state of affairs? What would have been their ideal?

They are fine with it (unfortunately), they expected it

To them to achieve longer term aims this is worth it

 

[SaadH]

SRK was an actor of a previous era. When the reign of the Bollywood Khans fully end, there won’t be anyone the Pakistani public will look to in the same way.

Pakistani cucks are the biggest fans of Kohli...Don't underestimate the magnitude of Pakistani cuckery...they will be the biggest fans of whoever bollywood props up next.

There is a reason why few million sikhs subjugated tens of million of musalmans in Punjab and Kashmir and a few thousands British took over an entire subcontinent with hundreds of million sheep.

 

[jhungary]

Biden decided American lives weren't worth Afghan lives

It is today's equivalent of

I am not against withdrawing US troop from afghan. I am against how that was done, and the move was solely considered in a political point of view instead of a military one. That's a bad move because it will dent the next military deployment.

I mean people suffer thru those war and it was being used as a political football. It kind of make you think why was I sent to Afghanistan when the administration is going to use your life as a political tool to try to score vote and what you did over there didn't mean shit.

 

[nahtanbob]

I am not against withdrawing US troop from afghan. I am against how that was done, and the move was solely considered in a political point of view instead of a military one. That's a bad move because it will dent the next military deployment.

I mean people suffer thru those war and it was being used as a political football. It kind of make you think why was I sent to Afghanistan when the administration is going to use your life as a political tool to try to score vote and what you did over there didn't mean shit.

I hear you on how troops who fought in Afghanistan are going to view this. Do not blame Biden. Well I suppose you could blame him. Blame the previous presidents Bush Jr, Obama and to some degree Trump for not articulating the strategy clearly

 

[AA_]

Pakistan cucks are the biggest fans of Kohli...Don't underestimate the magnitude of Pakistani cuckery...they will be the biggest fans of whoever bollywood props up next.

There is a reason why few million sikhs subjugated tens of million of musalmans in Punjab and Kashmir and a few thousands British took over an entire subcontinent with hundreds of million sheep.

Bro I hate it too but it’s not cuckery, it’s because the powers that deliberately made it this way to stay in control.

It’s mind control. I’ve noticed the middle and upper middle class men in Pakistan are very borderline passive. They won’t rock the boat. They don’t know better. Also they’re very civilized compared to the ugly, shit skinned color dotheads next door. Pakistanis are secured and don’t need tell the world about their forex or some superpower complex that apu dothead has. Do I wish Pakistanis were more nationalistic and anti apu dothead, yes. But humans as public are basically sheeples and need to be guided by a Shepard. The powers that be saw an emergence of a nationalist ideology in Pakistan and they made sure to stifle it before it rocked the boat ie putting pressure on apu dothead while he’s too busy taking a sh*t on a Mumbai railroad track and worrying about china.

I’m hoping that Pakistan becomes more educated and nationalistic. I would not shed a tear if the subhuman dotheads next door were wiped away by a nukes.