Effects of War on Terror on Pakistan

[53fd]

Muse bhai, if you actually think about it, you'll see what I said makes sense. Islamabad this year has seen a lot less violence (in terms of number of people killed) than it did 3 years ago. In 2008, Pakistan had a lot more casualties from the Marriott bombing. This year, there have been very few killings, but high profile people such as Shahbaz Bhatti, Salman Taseer & Saleem Shahzad were killed. The LEA might have struck out some deal with some Punjabi Jihadi groups, which is why we see less casualty figures from terrorism in Punjab this year, even though higher profile people have been killed, & the blasphemy law has fueled up extremists. Even though violence from terrorism has decreased, that is probably because the LEAs are not going after these Punjabi Jihadi groups like they did in Musharraf's time, & are letting these groups operate within their 'spheres of influence', as long as they don't cross certain lines (threaten/challenge the state of Pakistan). Whether that is detrimental or not for Pakistan's future remains to be seen.

 

[53fd]

I think you are confusing apples and oranges - these characters are no Mujahideen of 80's.

While it's a fact that today an outside power and it's middle eastern oil rich client are active with Islamists in Pakistan, it is also true that the groups the oild rich client state sponsors on behalf of the foreign power and a host of others that the Pakistani state used to sponsor, are in some ways, fundamentally different from what were once known as Mujahideen ---- but lest not m,iss the forst for the trees - incidents of Islamist terror, like suicide bombings tend to go down as the sponsors and the political artm of these movements gain acceptance in the corridors of power.

I think you misunderstand me. I never implied they (the Taliban) are the Mujahideen of the 80s, even though many people think they are. My point is, the Mujahideen was the 'mother of all evils' in the region. While many of the members of the Mujahideen formed non-Taliban groups (Northern Alliance etc), there were many fighters in the 80s (Mullah Umar, Osama bin Laden, Haqqanis, Hekmetyar & others) that were revered then, but are hated today, & seen as the enemies.

The Mujahideen were not a resistance movement, but were means & tools created to break up the Soviet Union. The Soviets never meant to attack Afghanistan, they just wanted to install their puppet government. The Mujahideen were used as a means to 'pull the Soviets out of their shells'. And as a result of that, we are all seeing their effects today. Even today, Chechen militants are proving to be a thorn in Russia, just like the militant/separatist groups were for the Soviet Union, all the off-shoots of the Mujahideen. All the Jihadi groups in Kashmir (LeT, HuM/HuA, JM etc), Pakistan (SSP/LeJ), Afghanistan (Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Haqqani network, IMU, ETIM etc) are all the off-shoots of the Mujahideen.

 

[muse]

I do very much agree with the suggestion that incidents have gone down because political deals have been struck -- that's the point I have been making.

Billu - study Mao - understand the basics of insurgency and that all is for political ends

---------- Post added at 06:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:09 AM ----------

I do very much agree with the suggestion that incidents have gone down because political deals have been struck -- that's the point I have been making.

Billu - study Mao - understand the basics of insurgency and that all is for political ends

 

[53fd]

Ok - lets start over -- we began by suggesting that the meaning of various numbers and stats you offered could best be understood in the framework of extremists winning their political demands.


Am I to understand that you are now suggesting that these numbers can go down to "negligible" or statistically irrelevant

Not negligible or statistically irrelevant, but much more sporadic. The Islamabad analogy I gave to you for 2008 & 2011 explains my point. Post 2014 will like the 90s, mainly stable with sporadic attacks on people seen as 'infidels', but not turbulent like today the way suicide bombing is taking place. Pakistan does not like insurgents, groups that challenge the writ of the state, & the lives of a few Shias & other minorities are a smaller price to pay in their eyes. Pakistan would rather let these groups operate in their 'sphere of influence' without any interference from Pakistan, than going after them, & facing a bigger challenge.

 

[muse]

Yes, Ok - got it.