Effects of War on Terror on Pakistan

[fd24]

That's true, I never hear the BBC give news reports quoting Pakistani officials, giving the Pakistani perspective. Extremely biased. And they never mention anything good about Pakistan.

Brother lately the "bad news exagerating" has even spread to India. They are displaying warnings NOT to travel to India! Thats how much full of cr*p they are. If they say that about India then think what they say about us!

 

[Ali Raza Sahni]

We are responsible for these attacks b/z we have no any respect for the Tribal Traditions... In first 50 years of our freedom, we have a force without any cost (Tribal People) but now we have war with multimillion cost........................................................................

 

[Nothing]

What effects? This WOT has ruined us, its a war that we never initiated.

But you took part in it.. from both sides ..

 

[muse]

The number and intensity of attacks in 2011 has really reduced a lot. One doesn't need data to manifest that. The situation has bettered a lot this year.

It is a fact all too evident.

How should we evaluate the data Billu has presented? What does this data actually represent?

Why is it better? What does this "lull" mean? Billu makes the point that attacks in the Punjab have decreased - and yet fails to mention that the political power of obscuritanists has increased -- Is there a connection between increased political power and decreased number of acts of terror?? If yes, what does that say about increased numbers in KP.

 

[SMC]

The attacks have been mostly been concentrated in FATA this year. Last year and years before, majority of attacks where still in FATA and KP, but there were still a lot in Punjab and Sindh. Those seem to have been reduced significantly this year. That's not to say this trend will continue for sure. We've seen lull in the number of terrorist attacks for a while, then later they start happening again.

I think 2012 will be an important year to look at. That's when WoT will significantly wind down, which will make a big difference for us.

 

[muse]

The attacks have been mostly been concentrated in FATA this year. Last year and years before, majority of attacks where still in FATA and KP, but there were still a lot in Punjab and Sindh. Those seem to have been reduced significantly this year. That's not to say this trend will continue for sure. We've seen lull in the number of terrorist attacks for a while, then later they start happening again.

I think 2012 will be an important year to look at. That's when WoT will significantly wind down, which will make a big difference for us.

This was a interesting post but you have not explained WHY the trend will continue - WHY will terror attacks lessen in Punjab (but other kinds of religiously motivated violence against non-Wahabis increase and why in general minorties and women's rights will not fare well in punjab -- till the next election cycles --- And Why will attacks in KP increase -- what is the relationship between these attacks and the kinds of politics at work in different provinces?

What I'm getting at is that there are political motivations behind these attacks - obviously, right?? These attacks are designed to get or effect a change in government policies, right?? So, when these attacks have gone down, as in Punjab, what does it mean??


Am I getting through to you?

 

[53fd]

I think some of the trends seen in Balochistan & KPK show lesser number of attacks, but higher casualty figures. If you analyze the events of KPK, you will see that the number of attacks on government/Army installations has decreased, so terrorists resort to killing in public areas where you have a large, concentrated gathering of people. In Balochistan, the number of attacks on (& killings of) ordinary citizens has increased.

In FATA, the number of attacks by militants are pretty much the same as last year's (& will rise higher than 2010 when year 2011 ends), but the number of people killed or injured has decreased. Meaning a lot of unsuccessful attacks, which can be a result of the FATA people fighting side by side with the Army, & taking responsibility to root out the militants.

There have been huge improvements elsewhere in the country. But that has come as a result of higher violence figures in Balochistan & KPK.

 

[Zarvan]

This war has brought Disastrous results for Pakistan we lost 35000 people 70 Billion Dollars in economy war spreading in whole of Pakistan people getting into depression afraid to go

 

[53fd]

How should we evaluate the data Billu has presented? What does this data actually represent?

Why is it better? What does this "lull" mean? Billu makes the point that attacks in the Punjab have decreased - and yet fails to mention that the political power of obscuritanists has increased -- Is there a connection between increased political power and decreased number of acts of terror?? If yes, what does that say about increased numbers in KP.

As I see it, KP is a "contested" region between militants & the local authorities/law enforcement agencies. In other words, we are bound to see higher incidents of terrorism in these "contested" areas, than in "stable" ones like Punjab where there is a much stronger presence of local law enforcement agencies. We can also attribute the higher figures of KPK with the operations in the FATA. When the Army conducts an operation in FATA, militants try to flee to nearby KPK areas like Hangu, Dir, Kohat, Peshawar etc, & attack those cities.

 

[muse]

As I see it, KP is a "contested" region between militants & the local authorities/law enforcement agencies. In other words, we are bound to see higher incidents of terrorism in these "contested" areas, than in "stable" ones like Punjab where there is a much stronger presence of local law enforcement agencies. We can also attribute the higher figures of KPK with the operations in the FATA. When the Army conducts an operation in FATA, militants try to flee to nearby KPK areas like Hangu, Dir, Kohat, Peshawar etc, & attack those cities.

I will take strong exception and refer to those parts of your response which I have bolded -- now, the exception is not with the general but the particular --- Quite the contrary I will argue, it is in the Punjab that LEA are a joke --What has happened in the Punjab is that jihadi organizations and so called religious organizations have become partners with the PML-N -- While acts of terror such as suicide attacks and the like have diminished, other acts of terror, inspired by sectarian concerns and bigotry against minorities has increased.

And in KP, it is the same dynamic, that is to say a political dynamic, and not a military dynamic that I would argue we should focus on and which the data you resent suggests -- it's clear that the ANP's stand against obscuritanism is qualitatively different from the stance, to the degree that it is a stance against obscuritanists,in the Punjab.

 

[muse]

Billu

Consider this piece that appears in the DT today:

A tsunami of change?
Abdul Quayyum Khan Kundi



A visit to villages in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) shows that the season of elections has started. There are street banners and billboards of potential candidates of various parties erected on the roadsides while political rallies, corner meetings and local deal makings are also in full swing. But there is a deeper current flowing that suggests that the country is preparing for a revolutionary change in its political structure. There are various factors at play for this grand change.

Youth activism in politics can be credited to the celebrity appeal of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan. It started as a fan appeal but as these youth got indoctrinated in the ideology of the PTI, they have become a potent political force that is eager to demonstrate its ability to affect the future of Pakistan. The challenge for the PTI will be to mentor and guide this youthful energy with the experience of seasoned politicians. They may be political novices but on the other hand they are savvy in using social media, SMS and twitter technologies to connect and mobilise at very short notice. The effectiveness of these abilities was in full show during the political rallies organised by the PTI before and during Ramazan. This phenomenon was initially discarded by old guard politicians but the success of rallies in Faisalabad, Multan and Gujranwala has forced them to rethink their approach.

The other factor is the emergence of regional media that is showing its ability to educate the local masses and influence their decision making by highlighting the poor performance and broken promises of the parties in office. As the national media focuses on larger issues, the regional media has carved out its role by dictating the political agenda filled with local issues that cannot be ignored by candidates and must become part of their election manifesto. Most of these media outlets are using social media and internet to spread their message to the registered voters that have migrated to other parts of the country. If used effectively they can become a key factor in monitoring fraud in the elections. Regional media is showing a desire to have an independent voice despite lack of financial resources to challenge the establishment and local landlords.

The third factor is the ever widening gap between the rich and the poor. As an illustration, Faisalabad is the second largest city in Punjab and an industrial centre in Pakistan. Just few miles off the GT road, in the vicinity of Faisalabad are located the poorest villages of Pakistan. In these villages the streets are unpaved, the children are unclothed, the sewerage is flowing in uncovered channels serving as breeding grounds for harmful germs, streets are littered with garbage and the houses are made of mud. In the middle of this abject poverty, the rich landlords drive in shining new Prados or Land Cruisers comforted by the cool breeze of car air conditioners while the masses struggling below the poverty line are worried about their next meal. The rich are totally unaware of the misery spread around them. They spend a large part of the year in Faisalabad, which is stocked with the best merchandise produced locally and internationally. They do spend a few months in their villages but their villas are built at a distance from the village, featuring the latest amenities that modern construction technologies can offer.

While the villages of central Punjab are poor, ironically the mosques are modern and adorned with the best marble inside and out. One wonders how people could afford to construct such beautiful buildings when they themselves are living below the poverty line. This paradox is solved when he/she is informed that the funds for the mosque and attached seminaries are provided by international benefactors. This is a recipe for disaster as the orthodox imam of the mosque is impregnating the minds of the people with hatred for the rich in the name of religion. This phenomenon has made Punjab a breeding ground for extremism. The religious establishment has become so powerful that no one has the strength or the courage to challenge it. Anyone who dares to hint at bringing these institutions under state control is threatened with dire consequences. Mosques have lost some of their political lustre because of the acts of terrorism committed by the religious extremists. But they cannot be totally ignored and will play a role in the elections.

In the next elections, all these factors will come into play and will impact the outcome of the elections. The larger struggle will be between the rich and the poor. Youth, media and the religious establishment will all join hands to defeat the influential status quo. The PTI can provide the vehicle for this dynamic if the party plays its cards right. Realising the PTI’s potential to break out as a majority party, it has suddenly become the darling of the old political elite that had lost its lustre or lost the last elections. The debate within the party is how to handle this challenge and balance the interests of the loyalists against the electable. If too many old faces get party tickets, it will lose the prized status of a party of change while ignoring it might not produce the desired strength in parliament. It is a test of the party’s ability to gauge the political current and use it to its advantage without losing its core electorate comprising the youth — undecided and new voters. The PTI rallies and processions are drawing growing crowds but the party analysts have to ascertain how many of these are party voters versus fans of cricket hero Imran Khan.

Against this backdrop, the PML-N looks tired and out of ideas. The PML-N president, Nawaz Sharif seems to have awakened from a long slumber and is behaving more like a reactionary than a visionary. The PML-N is fighting a threat to its existence as its core vote bank has been attracted by the PTI, the MQM, and the JI. The PPP seems to be confident that the status quo in parliament will sustain with minor losses in its current numbers. The PML-Q looks like the party that will be most affected as many of their dissident leaders have joined the ranks of the PML-N while some others might be unseated in the next elections. The ANP, the JUI-F and the MQM are expected to maintain their numbers except that the ANP might lose its majority in the KP provincial assembly. They are eager and open to making an alliance with the next emerging power centre.

Revolutions are bloody, while transformations are comparatively peaceful. Pakistan is at the cusp, where it can tilt either way. One must hope that the nation selects the path of transformation and emerges as a beacon of light for the larger Muslim world.

The writer is the Chairman Council of Past Presidents, Pakistan Chamber of Commerce-USA. He can be reached at abdul.kundi@gmail.com

 

[Zarvan]

Billu

Consider this piece that appears in the DT today:

A tsunami of change?
Abdul Quayyum Khan Kundi



A visit to villages in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) shows that the season of elections has started. There are street banners and billboards of potential candidates of various parties erected on the roadsides while political rallies, corner meetings and local deal makings are also in full swing. But there is a deeper current flowing that suggests that the country is preparing for a revolutionary change in its political structure. There are various factors at play for this grand change.

Youth activism in politics can be credited to the celebrity appeal of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan. It started as a fan appeal but as these youth got indoctrinated in the ideology of the PTI, they have become a potent political force that is eager to demonstrate its ability to affect the future of Pakistan. The challenge for the PTI will be to mentor and guide this youthful energy with the experience of seasoned politicians. They may be political novices but on the other hand they are savvy in using social media, SMS and twitter technologies to connect and mobilise at very short notice. The effectiveness of these abilities was in full show during the political rallies organised by the PTI before and during Ramazan. This phenomenon was initially discarded by old guard politicians but the success of rallies in Faisalabad, Multan and Gujranwala has forced them to rethink their approach.

The other factor is the emergence of regional media that is showing its ability to educate the local masses and influence their decision making by highlighting the poor performance and broken promises of the parties in office. As the national media focuses on larger issues, the regional media has carved out its role by dictating the political agenda filled with local issues that cannot be ignored by candidates and must become part of their election manifesto. Most of these media outlets are using social media and internet to spread their message to the registered voters that have migrated to other parts of the country. If used effectively they can become a key factor in monitoring fraud in the elections. Regional media is showing a desire to have an independent voice despite lack of financial resources to challenge the establishment and local landlords.

The third factor is the ever widening gap between the rich and the poor. As an illustration, Faisalabad is the second largest city in Punjab and an industrial centre in Pakistan. Just few miles off the GT road, in the vicinity of Faisalabad are located the poorest villages of Pakistan. In these villages the streets are unpaved, the children are unclothed, the sewerage is flowing in uncovered channels serving as breeding grounds for harmful germs, streets are littered with garbage and the houses are made of mud. In the middle of this abject poverty, the rich landlords drive in shining new Prados or Land Cruisers comforted by the cool breeze of car air conditioners while the masses struggling below the poverty line are worried about their next meal. The rich are totally unaware of the misery spread around them. They spend a large part of the year in Faisalabad, which is stocked with the best merchandise produced locally and internationally. They do spend a few months in their villages but their villas are built at a distance from the village, featuring the latest amenities that modern construction technologies can offer.

While the villages of central Punjab are poor, ironically the mosques are modern and adorned with the best marble inside and out. One wonders how people could afford to construct such beautiful buildings when they themselves are living below the poverty line. This paradox is solved when he/she is informed that the funds for the mosque and attached seminaries are provided by international benefactors. This is a recipe for disaster as the orthodox imam of the mosque is impregnating the minds of the people with hatred for the rich in the name of religion. This phenomenon has made Punjab a breeding ground for extremism. The religious establishment has become so powerful that no one has the strength or the courage to challenge it. Anyone who dares to hint at bringing these institutions under state control is threatened with dire consequences. Mosques have lost some of their political lustre because of the acts of terrorism committed by the religious extremists. But they cannot be totally ignored and will play a role in the elections.

In the next elections, all these factors will come into play and will impact the outcome of the elections. The larger struggle will be between the rich and the poor. Youth, media and the religious establishment will all join hands to defeat the influential status quo. The PTI can provide the vehicle for this dynamic if the party plays its cards right. Realising the PTI’s potential to break out as a majority party, it has suddenly become the darling of the old political elite that had lost its lustre or lost the last elections. The debate within the party is how to handle this challenge and balance the interests of the loyalists against the electable. If too many old faces get party tickets, it will lose the prized status of a party of change while ignoring it might not produce the desired strength in parliament. It is a test of the party’s ability to gauge the political current and use it to its advantage without losing its core electorate comprising the youth — undecided and new voters. The PTI rallies and processions are drawing growing crowds but the party analysts have to ascertain how many of these are party voters versus fans of cricket hero Imran Khan.

Against this backdrop, the PML-N looks tired and out of ideas. The PML-N president, Nawaz Sharif seems to have awakened from a long slumber and is behaving more like a reactionary than a visionary. The PML-N is fighting a threat to its existence as its core vote bank has been attracted by the PTI, the MQM, and the JI. The PPP seems to be confident that the status quo in parliament will sustain with minor losses in its current numbers. The PML-Q looks like the party that will be most affected as many of their dissident leaders have joined the ranks of the PML-N while some others might be unseated in the next elections. The ANP, the JUI-F and the MQM are expected to maintain their numbers except that the ANP might lose its majority in the KP provincial assembly. They are eager and open to making an alliance with the next emerging power centre.

Revolutions are bloody, while transformations are comparatively peaceful. Pakistan is at the cusp, where it can tilt either way. One must hope that the nation selects the path of transformation and emerges as a beacon of light for the larger Muslim world.

The writer is the Chairman Council of Past Presidents, Pakistan Chamber of Commerce-USA. He can be reached at abdul.kundi@gmail.com

]
IF MMA is formed again it will win the elections KP and Balochistan again and also if their are fare election Karachi they can win some seats there too

 

[53fd]

I will take strong exception and refer to those parts of your response which I have bolded -- now, the exception is not with the general but the particular --- Quite the contrary I will argue, it is in the Punjab that LEA are a joke --What has happened in the Punjab is that jihadi organizations and so called religious organizations have become partners with the PML-N -- While acts of terror such as suicide attacks and the like have diminished, other acts of terror, inspired by sectarian concerns and bigotry against minorities has increased.

And in KP, it is the same dynamic, that is to say a political dynamic, and not a military dynamic that I would argue we should focus on and which the data you resent suggests -- it's clear that the ANP's stand against obscuritanism is qualitatively different from the stance, to the degree that it is a stance against obscuritanists,in the Punjab.

Well, that is certainly an interesting perspective. I do agree with you though. I'll give you a couple of points to ponder over:

We all know that Pakistan was relatively stable prior to 2001 in terms of overall violence from terrorism. Does it means there was no extremism/radicalism in Pakistani society then? No, there was plenty of extremism/radicalism in Pakistani society, but it wasn't challenged, or 'pursued' by the LEAs. However, there was a lot of sectarianism in the 90s; lots of people killed from sectarianism. Post 2001, LeJ was banned by Musharraf, LeT/HuM were banned, & these groups were clamped on.

Now coming to today: Punjabi Jihadi groups are still going strong, & they aren't having their authority challenged, so that could explain their lack of activity or endeavor in Punjab: they might have struck some of 'understanding' with the local authorities. But that doesn't stop them from facilitating other local groups (Taliban, TTP) & foreign groups in FATA & Balochistan.

 

[53fd]

Both Afghanistan & Pakistan have 'beasts' that can only be tamed to a certain level, not controlled or destroyed. Pakistan tried to go after the local Mujahideen groups post 2001 in Musharraf's time. The US tried to go after the Taliban in Afghanistan post 2001. I think the effects of the 1980s, when the Mujahideen were created, will never diminish. There will be co-existence between the radical elements of Pakistan, as well as the majority of the country that has got nothing to do with these things. I think Hina Rabbani Khar's words "let's give peace a chance', or the US negotiations in Afghanistan only go to show that the 'beast' (created from the 80s) cannot be destroyed, but can only be tamed. As long as you don't challenge its authority, it will remain 'tame' to a certain extent, with sporadic attacks on minorities & 'infidels', but not the kind of violence we see today in FATA/KPK. The good news for Pakistan is that this 'beast' does not constitute a huge part of Pakistani society (might be in a few millions, 3-5 million people in Pakistan out of 180 million), whereas the beast is much more prevalent in Afghan society, in positions of authority (unlike Pakistan).

 

[CENTCOM]

What effects? This WOT has ruined us, its a war that we never initiated.

USA was smart in 1980's.. It did breed snakes, but did that in Pakistan's backyard instead of its own.. So even if they end up biting the owner of the yard, it was no skin off the back of USA

Are both nations not victims of religious extremism that has resulted in thousands of innocent deaths and the spilling of innocent blood on our soil? Are we both not continuously targeted by the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, a common enemy set on using religious extremism to destroy our peace and our sovereignty? How can we avoid the reality that these violent extremists are as much, if not more, of an enemy of Pakistan as they are to the US? The sensitivity of the situation requires both nations to keep focus on achieving the common interests and avoid indulging in the blame game.

Are we not, to terrorists, a strong alliance, a common threat standing in their way and preventing them from achieving their dark and evil agenda? Would it be wise to say that “It’s a war we never initiated” when the US and Pakistanis are focused on the common goal of wiping out terrorism? Are we not victims of the same injustice, which points to a common enemy and solidifies our strategic alliance? Then it’s time we eliminate the threat that continues to loom over our nations. We understand the nation of Pakistan continues to pay the highest price in this war on terror, and the US fully backs and supports and appreciates all its efforts. We know there will be disagreements, as there are in any relationship between independent nations. But Pakistan and the US will continue to overcome any obstacles to continue its war on terror until this mission is accomplished. It is clear to us that in the struggle against extremists’ organizations, our interests are one and the same with the people of Pakistan (and every other peace loving nation).

‏MAJ Taylor,
DET, United States Central Command
U.S. Central Command