DPP victory, what course of action should China be prepared to take ?

[Aepsilons]

Taiwan knows it's economic future is with mainland China. If they try any stupid stuff like Japan did, the Taiwanese economy will turn into a complete failure like the Japanese economy.

Its without a doubt the direction Taiwan is going, we cannot escape reality, afterall. Anyways, Taiwan's economy is already adapted to integrate the mainland's. In fact, the mainland is such a vast market that Taiwanese industrialists take advantage of, given their natural similarities.

China is Taiwan’s largest export market (with direct exports and exports through Hong Kong accounting for around 40 per cent of Taiwanese exports) and its second largest source of import supplies (after Japan), although the import share is less than half the export share. The underlying economics of the relationship — given Taiwan’s location and the scale and structure of the Chinese and Taiwanese economies — would predict these very large trade shares (in fact they predict that trade shares should be somewhat larger, suggesting that there is some remaining drag of the political on the economic relationship).

Taiwanese trade has thus reoriented towards a more natural pattern with China, as its trade has grown more and more important to Taiwan’s prosperity and the share of Western industrial countries in Europe and North America has receded (to half its previous shareover this time).

Reference: EAF

 

[qwerrty]

all i know is that china can make mediatek, tsmc and many other taiwanese companies that they are so proud of go out of business. lol. the whole mediatek's revenue is from china and china can force apple and many other chip designers to stop using tawanese fabs and use korean instead... sit back and watch those phuckers blaming each others and begging to get back to motherland

 

[Aepsilons]

Taiwan knows it's economic future is with mainland China. If they try any stupid stuff like Japan did, the Taiwanese economy will turn into a complete failure like the Japanese economy.

As for the Japanese economy's poor performance. Yes, well, it shows , and it should serve as case analyses in future research paradigm(s), of how political relations can affect economic performance. Japan must seize the opportunity to improve political relations with China, as doing so will enable Japanese companies greater access to Chinese domestic market, and will win approval of Chinese state sponsored , state-sanctioned development of the interior of the nation. Anyways, the direction points towards greater Sino-Japanese cooperation , and with that , greater economic cooperation. Japan's success is tied to China's success, afterall.

all i know is that china can make mediatek, tsmc and many other taiwanese companies that they are so proud of go out of business. lol. the whole mediatek revenue is from china and china can force apple and many other chip designers to stop using tawanese fabs and use korean instead... sit back and watch those phuckers blaming each others and begging to get back to motherland

Taiwan and Mainland are vested in each other. Each has a stake in each others' collective growth and success. I suppose it is equivalent to reaching a point of no return now. As i said, it is best to take a softer paternalistic position in context to Taiwan, and eventually a 2+1 political resolution paradigm will emerge.

Honestly, it was about time that the KMT fell. It was the historical enemy of the CPC, thus it should be de-legitimized.

all i know is that china can make mediatek, tsmc and many other taiwanese companies that they are so proud of go out of business. lol. the whole mediatek revenue is from china and china can force apple and many other chip designers to stop using tawanese fabs and use korean instead... sit back and watch those phuckers blaming each others and begging to get back to motherland

The United States can try to use the Cross Straits issue as a dividing fixture, however, what the Washington state actors usually fail to understand is that there is a culturally ingrained notion amongst the political establishment in Tokyo, Taipei and Beijing to eventually coordinate , cooperate, intercommisurate. Ultimately, this notion of divisive rhetoric is a short term agenda that Washington plays. Washington cannot , eventually, prevent the integration of Greater East Asia. On a popular basis, it seems that the people of Japan, China , Taiwan --- collectively --- wish for greater cooperation amongst each other. To the chagrin of Washington's geopolitical interest, of course.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Just remember:

All things in Taiwan, the mainland can get with time alone.
Nothing in the mainland, can Taiwan obtain with time alone. Instead they must resort to extremely risky gambits.

So basically, if they wait, they lose. But they can't win right now either.

 

[AndrewJin]

Just remember:

All things in Taiwan, the mainland can get with time alone.
Nothing in the mainland, can Taiwan obtain with time alone. Instead they must resort to extremely risky gambits.

So basically, if they wait, they lose. But they can't win right now either.

They have 2 options
1, maintain status quo>>>>>>>continuation of KMT's cross-strait policies
2, ignore 1992 consensus>>>>>>the start of a series of nightmares for "Republic of China".

 

[Aepsilons]

Just remember:

All things in Taiwan, the mainland can get with time alone.
Nothing in the mainland, can Taiwan obtain with time alone. Instead they must resort to extremely risky gambits.

So basically, if they wait, they lose. But they can't win right now either.

HK's assimilation will be the model for ROC, imho.

 

[mike2000 is back]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

@Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout @Lure @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Martian2 @KAL-EL @ahojunk @ChineseTiger1986@faithfulguy@mike2000 is back @Dungeness
any other opinions ?

Hi Mr Songshan. Thanks for the tag,you are one of the few members here who i respect and who is quite neutral/moderate/respectful in his views.
I agree completely with everything you said. I will also add that the new anti-China Taiwanese president will not only deepen it's relations/alliance with the U.S and Japan, but she will also take a tougher stance against China internationally and unlike the KMT distance itself from the mainland in the dispute in the SCS(never mind that it was the nationalists who created the current nine dash claim for China. lol ).

However, economic relations/ties will continue as they have for the past decade, but that doesn't means Taiwan will get any closer to China nor does it means that Taiwanese will love the mainland more. If there is anything globalization/free trade has thought us today, it's that close economic ties/trade doesn't means countries will automatically become allies/love each other(sometimes it's often the opposite actually. lol ), just like we have seen with China and Japan, U.S and China, China and Vietnam, China-Philippines etc who all have huge trade/business ties, but they are nowhere near partners/allies, on the contrary they have moved further from each other more than ever. It's unfortunate but that's how things are. Just my opinion though.

 

[cnleio]

 

[LowPost]

DPP Wins in Taiwan

The writing has been on the wall for KMT’s chances in the election this time around for some time. As I had discussed earlier, the battle between DPP and KMT in the 2016 election is not about independence vs. status quo as it had been 8 years back when Taiwan elected Ma Ying-jeou, or 16 years ago when Taiwan elected Chen Shui-Bian. That battle had been won long ago, with this time everyone agreeing that the status quo is the way to go. The battle this time around is about economics, about what to do with Taiwan’s stagnant wages and rising home prices.

Of course, there are plenty of symbolism that DPP – and hence Tsai – still stands for independence. DPP’s charter, for example, still officially endorses independence. Tsai has also been purposely demure and vague about her stance toward the Mainland, including her public avoidance of acknowledging the 1992 Consensus on the one-China policy.

But I think all that is just symbolism. Given that it’s election season, and that the 1992 Consensus include details that allowed both sides to interpret things slightly differently under the broad rubric of a one China policy, I think it’s understandable Tsai want to do everything to avoid the specter of getting pinned into one specific or another interpretation.

The real reason KMT lost is because it has not properly addressed the following political trends.

First, over the last few years, many people in Taiwan have come to believe that Taiwan’s growth of the last decade or so have all benefited the very wealthy, with the vast number of Taiwanese left on the side. In the U.S. and world in general, similar things have happened, but people in the States blame on corporate welfare and special interests. In Taiwan, people have somehow come to blame closer relation with the Mainland.

Second, the younger generation are tired of lower than expected economic growth that have endured most of their adult lives. They have seen Mainland and Taiwan come closer during that time also, but see little improvement for their lives. They fear that further tightening of economic dependence will only mean even worse conditions for their future economic prospects.

The KMT’s best line of defense this election continues to be that we are the party of stability with Mainland (true for 2008 election). Vote for DPP and we risk plunging Taiwan into Turmoil.

The DPP’s response has been to capitalize on the recent trends and say, let us defend your interests and concerns. We will keep the status quo, but will work to improve your interests in mind foremost.

The Taiwan people chose the second because they understand that there is little chance that DPP can undo the rapprochement that has been developed between the two sides of the strait under Ma’s administration the last 8 years. What is needed is a fresh course for Taiwan, whatever it is. Irregardless of whether Tsai has any answers, for most people in Taiwan, harmonious relation with Mainland is a done deal. The KMT’s continued invocation of that point is passé and does not confront the real issue of the day.

The truth is that harmonious relations with Mainland has always been necessary (of course) but never sufficient. Even if Taiwan were unified under China today, there would still be local politics and interests and demands that must be paid attention to and satisfied – as it is the case in any area within China – on a region by region basis.

Further, for reunification to occur peacefully and deeply in a way that China wants, it has to come politically. That means China cannot just deal with just the KMT, it must deal with the DPP as well. Viewed in that light, this election result is a great opportunity. Just as today’s KMT is not the KMT of 1949, so is today’s DPP not the DPP of 2000 … or 2008 for that matter. DPP’s election today brings so much less risk than it did 8 or 16 years ago…

It’s a new day in Taiwan. And as this blog’s moniker says, a confident and resurgent China should continually strive to seek new harmonies in a brave new world. While risks exist with DPP’s coming to power again, I believe the opportunities far outweigh the risks for China this time around.

Cheers everyone! Here is a toast to the very best for Chinese people everywhere … on both sides of the strait!!

DPP Wins in Taiwan | Hidden Harmonies China Blog

 

[kankan326]

Hi Mr Songshan. Thanks for the tag,you are one of the few members here who i respect and who is quite neutral/moderate/respectful in his views.
I agree completely with everything you said. I will also add that the new anti-China Taiwanese president will not only deepen it's relations/alliance with the U.S and Japan, but she will also take a tougher stance against China internationally and unlike the KMT distance itself from the mainland in the dispute in the SCS(never mind that it was the nationalists who created the current nine dash claim for China. lol ).

However, economic relations/ties will continue as they have for the past decade, but that doesn't means Taiwan will get any closer to China nor does it means that Taiwanese will love the mainland more. If there is anything globalization/free trade has thought us today, it's that close economic ties/trade doesn't means countries will automatically become allies/love each other(sometimes it's often the opposite actually. lol ), just like we have seen with China and Japan, U.S and China, China and Vietnam, China-Philippines etc who all have huge trade/business ties, but they are nowhere near partners/allies, on the contrary they have moved further from each other more than ever. It's unfortunate but that's how things are. Just my opinion though.

Economic tie sometimes is like air. People don't feel it exists unless they are choked. Taiwanese take it for granted that the mainland should maintain the present economic policy(Which is very favorable to them). The mainland is irreplaceable for Taiwan's economy. The CCP could easily destroy Taiwanese lives. US and its allies often use economic weapon to countries they don't like. Till now CCP has never used it. But it doesn't mean CCP won't use it for ever. What really amazes me is. Taiwanese don't seem to have a tad of idea that their air supply can be shut by mainland at anytime. They are so keen on provoking us.

 

[mike2000 is back]

HK's assimilation will be the model for ROC, imho.

Not really bro. Hk's situation is totally different from Taiwan, For one, we 'leased' Hong Kong from China after the opium war, so when the term of the leased expired, we had to hand China's back it's territory. Hong Konger's had no say in this, in fact you will be shocked to know that had Hong Konger's been allowed to choose/vote for a handover, they would have overwhelmingly voted to remain under Britain.
So if anything you shouldn't use Hk's 'assimilation' as a model for Taiwan, for if you do, then it will mean Taiwan will overwhelmingly choose to remain independent. lol

ahahahahahha............Your picture of Japan and Taiwan being U.S dogs/puppets wont go down well with Japanese and Taiwanese people.
Nice/funny one though.

 

[beijingwalker]

Will US defend Taiwan ,watch the video from 1:10:07

 

[anon45]

The United States can try to use the Cross Straits issue as a dividing fixture, however, what the Washington state actors usually fail to understand is that there is a culturally ingrained notion amongst the political establishment in Tokyo, Taipei and Beijing to eventually coordinate , cooperate, intercommisurate. Ultimately, this notion of divisive rhetoric is a short term agenda that Washington plays. Washington cannot , eventually, prevent the integration of Greater East Asia. On a popular basis, it seems that the people of Japan, China , Taiwan --- collectively --- wish for greater cooperation amongst each other. To the chagrin of Washington's geopolitical interest, of course.

Respectfully I have not seen that in evidence outside of the economic sphere. In the security sphere you see Japan eager for security cooperation with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan, not China. Economics can moderate hostilities or clashing interests, but it doesn't solve them. US-China or Germany- Britain are examples.

It looks to me that security wise Japan is hedging, and Taiwan has every desire to hedge as well.

is there any evidence that any of the governments of East Asia desire an east asian economic union?

It seems clear to me that both China and Japan see each other as competitors when it comes to geopolitical interests, and Japan is cooperating with like minded powers to balance against a growing China, not cooperate with it.


On an unrelated note congratulations to Taiwan, this could mean more cooperation with Japan.

China should be prepared to keep the status quo.

 

[S10]

The prudent course of action is to slowly marginalize Taiwan's economy, by building up competitors in mainland China in information technology sector. Furthermore, restrict and reduce the number of visitor permit to Taiwan each year. Currently about 5000 tourists are permitted to go there daily, so reduce that number by a 1000 with each passing year. Also, impose a heavy 30% tariff on Taiwan's agricultural products, since Taiwan itself has not opened its market to mainland's produce. Finally, any businessmen or celebrities from Taiwan express support for pro-independence camp would be permanently barred from entering China.

In short, hit their information technology, service, agricultural and cultural sector hard. China has been giving Taiwan too much for apparently no return for too long. You do not reward bad behavior with more deals. A spoiled brat does not care how much you gave him, only what he can get.

 

[Lure]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

@Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout @Lure @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Martian2 @KAL-EL @ahojunk @ChineseTiger1986@faithfulguy@mike2000 is back @Dungeness
any other opinions ?

Hey there, thanks for the tag.

People do resist to the change. Since 2008 there is a huge paradigm shift in the cross strait relation. Trade barriers are almost completely vanished in every sector of economy, travel restrictions are completely off and there is an unprecedented opportunity of communication between both sides not only among high level executives but also among common people.

Now this change is extremely rapid especially if one considers that in 1996, merely 12 years ago before this liberalization, both sides were about to go to war.

Such rapid paradigm shifts usually create a resistance. People do afraid. Not because they think Mainland has some hidden agenda, or because they think they are not Chinese but because they are afraid that their way of duing business, their way of life, their political system will be effected drammatically by this paradigm shift. Then the reflex of status quo shows up.

There is a very good example in US. People usually elect different parties for House of Representitives and White House. If they elect the same party for both branches, there might be a very fast progression through a certain party's -or president's- wishes. Just to slow down that progression they use the other party as a watchdog in the House of Representitives.

Now in Taiwan's case, there is huge business interest now between Taiwan and Mainland. That business interest demands further progression, further liberalization, further connection among both sides. In order to counterbalance and slow down the progression, people tend to elect a watch dog. And that watchdog now is DPP.

The current trend can't be reversed between Mainland and Taiwan. There is just too much business interest now. The only option that DPP has is to slow down the progression, without hurting the business interests too much. Now there will be ups and downs. She will always try to test the limits of Mainland regarding cross strait relations. But eventually she will come to her senses.

Mainland and Taiwan speaks the same language (I know there are very little differences, but still it's basically the same language), they have very similar cultures, many Chinese from Taiwan goes to visit Mainland, many Chinese from Mainland goes to visit Taiwan, they make business, they communicate, billions of dollars of investments are realized on both sides. There is nothing that she, or basically any person in the planet Earth can do to stop the rapprochement.