Disintegration of China because of economic collapse?

[Cherokee]

Growth might slow down over next decade but that nowhere means collapse !!

 

[Echo_419]

China will become the sole super power in the next 20 years. China will rewrite history.

That is what he shall wrote.

Seriously this author is an anti china. He just too jealous of the spectacular sucess of china.

this is the thing which is must INDIA must make our relations with china normal or better than normal atlest
the only thing i think which china will not be able to take over west is percapita income in next 2-3 decades rest asssured it will achive all targets folks have been predicting chinese collapse since 1989 this ain't happin

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

The threads of CHina collapse, US collapse are biggest BS in PDF.

 

[Hellraiser007]

A strong China is a strong Asia.

Completely wrong, China which obeys UN laws is good for Asia not the current China.

 

[Dandpatta]

A few pages back some of you mentioned China's economy is investment driven.
The kind of investments the CHINESE are making in other countries (flush with cash & capital) itself needs a closer look . China's domestic market is one thing, but the developing world and the 3rd world markets are definitely going to need China's quick production base - and if not that, then its investments in their own host countries. Labor costs going up? Look at how many Chinese clothing manufacturers moved their capital and know-how to Bangladesh and Dhaka has one of the highest number of Chinese nationals comprising as "expatriates" in the roll of clothing factory professionals & technicians.

Africa already has Chinese flags (no offence, but I mean it in investments made by Chinese.. overwhelmingly).

If by the plain logic of countries falling apart due to economic downturns, forget China! The US, Britain, and many other countries could have crumbled.

What really worked in the very first place for CHINA was that it had Russia as a prime example on how NOT to grasp democracy at the drop of the hat. USSR disintegrated and the separate countries that resulted from the breakup gave CHina a very good lesson on how not to loose the strings of control. Secondly, it also used Russia's example and the think tanks that still exist in Chinese politburo - STUDY other nations economic models thoroughly. Lessons learnt are lessons digested and strategies made accordingly. (Not that other nations and economies don't study other economic models, but I have seen how the Chinese have a good grasp of socio-eco-political scenarios).

On the very other hand, why China will NEVER disintegrate is because though technically a communist country, China's economic models and plans have shown its YOUNG population that its leaders deliver ! Just a few pages back one of our Chinese friends commented that within 30 years, he has seen a sea change in China, owns a car, a house, has a job and a security that the nation provides.

And this is exactly what China's leadership has provided. HOPE, CONFIDENCE and a definite CAN DO , WILL DO patriotism instilled in its population. (On a very honest note, how this confidence turns into a bragging affair amongst mainland Chinese when they lecture Hong Kong Chinese, is totally different matter <<<< TROLL NOT INTENDED But just an offside remark).

^^^^ and by the way, GAN BEI !!! (raising my Jinan Rice Wine... not moutai)

 

[AViet]

Comment on this:


"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

China already became one of the biggest consumer nation in the world, and already the biggest for a number of items, dwafted both the US or the whole of Europe combined.

Second, the ratio of export per GDP of China is much smaller than many other countries, like Germany. No one says the Germany economy is going to collapse. If it ever does, then it will after the US and other European countries did collapse.

Third, the Chinese workers are already more expensive than Indian, Indonesian, bangladeshi,.. for at least ten years, and according to a recent The Economist article, Chinese workers wage are now on par with that of Mexican workers, but there is no big wave of moving away from China, except for the low-value-added industry, like textile (but even the wave is quite small). Their quality of education is among the best in the world, already beating Germany, France or US quality for basic education of workers. Where else in this world one can find high-quality but relatively cheap workers for high-tech industries. If you look seriously as a businessman, you will find no where. East Asia, aside from Western Europe and North America, is where there are high-quality workers, but only China, Vietnam and North Korea (if they ever open their country for foreign investment) are still cheap.

 

[Ayush]

China will become the sole super power in the next 20 years. China will rewrite history.

That is what he shall wrote.

Seriously this author is an anti china. He just too jealous of the spectacular sucess of china.

i disagree.no offense but china is not gonna be the sole power in 20yrs,not even by 2050.the superpowers will be-usa,china,india,russia but usa will still be the first among equals.

ya,by 2050 china will most probably be the first among equals.
AFP: Intel report says US &#39;first among equals&#39; by 2030

 

[darkhero]

China may collapse because of various social conflicts. If there is not a country called US, if there is no other country trying to take advantage of this, I would wish it happen tomorrow.

 

[TuranKhan]

China's GDP in 2011 was 7.3 Trillion USD (GDP per capita $5500). By 2020 the GDP per capita of China will be more than likely higher than $11000 which is roughly Turkey's GDP per capita today.

You are talking about the "collapse" of an economy that is 20 times greater than yours. No one knows the future but we have faith in my country.

In 2020 China GDP per capita will be $11,000 and ours $25,000 2023.

+ Social Security probably much better.

 

[Pakchina]

The disintegration, collapse, bursting of China have been around since 10 years and even more since China is the world number 2 economy. Recently there was also a report about the collapse of China in 2030. The disintegration of China is a dream by the jealous white Western racists who want to maintain their hegemony and neo-colonialist rule in the World. The disintegration of China is also an opportunity for them to partition China for their own benefit just as before the invasion of the Japanese Imperial Army. But the dream of these white racists will remain only a dream while the disintegration of the UK (Scotland is having a referendum for that sake), of Belgium (Walony and Flamand), of Spain etc are realities. What we see nowadays? China is still going strong and is witnessing tremendous success in every field (Baidu, longest Bullet rail,etc) while its economy is recovering strongly with 7-8% growth in 2012, 2% more than India which is still trying to surpass China. Before China disintegrate, the racist White Western World civilization will already collapse and vanish.

 

[Mech]

China is going nowhere. Even without a credible economy they have managed to display their ability to stay as a single nation.

 

[neehar]

STRATFOR? Now where have I heard that name before?

Oh yes, their founder is George Friedman, who wrote this book.

The Next 100 Years - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here are some of the predictions in this book:

hi there buddy..remembr our discsn in "india can overtake china"..i dont believe that china is going to collapse and i am pretty sure that u've got 2 more decades to rule.if u continue in the same form u'll create wonders..however if u fail to utilize that crucial time then u'll be in trouble..however i'm pretty confident of ur capabilities

 

[Mech]

The only thing that could "fall" in China is the CPC itself. That too, not very likely. There is no question of any "disintegration" however. There might a bit of problem in Uighur and hui regions...sustained by pak elements........but nothing beyond China's ability to "contain".

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Martin Jacques will not agree with that China will be desintegrated otherwise his will find no customers for his best selling book about China

 

[giant panda]

Han Chinese account for more than 90 percent of the population and constitute the world&#8217;s single largest racial-cultural group. Our ethnic solidarity and historical superiority remain remarkable. we have great national cultural cohesion,China collapse theory is just a joke from western world , that&#8217;s all