Disintegration of China because of economic collapse?

[UKBengali]

Now? Yer dreaming.

This is not a zero sum game. If China's economy does live up to projections, and there are no guarantees it will, that still does not mean there will be an equivalent decline in America's economic capacity, especially when considering the fact that the average American worker is still outproducing his Chinese counterpart by 3-1. You think something like the simple microwave oven came from China? When China can produce functional products from ideas like the microwave oven, talk to US.


Communism died in China the day members of the Politburo donned the Western style business suit. Today, those members are intellectual and moral frauds. And they know it.

It is a zero-sum game.

It does not matter if the US keeps growing at 2% a year till 2030 becuase if China manages 8% a year up to 2030, then China will be around twice as rich.

2x the wealth would translate into a vastly more powerful military than the US would be able to afford.

Why do people not see the fact that the US is in decline due to the fact that China is fast catching up with it?

 

[gambit]

It is a zero-sum game.

It does not matter if the US keeps growing at 2% a year till 2030 becuase if China manages 8% a year up to 2030, then China will be around twice as rich.

2x the wealth would translate into a vastly more powerful military than the US would be able to afford.

Why do people not see the fact that the US is in decline due to the fact that China is fast catching up with it?

Here is what a 'zero sum' situation really is...Pay attention, even though it is not that difficult to grasp...

If you and your neighbor at work make $50,000/yr at the same company, and your boss reduce your salary to $30,000/yr to give your neighbor a raise to $70,000/yr, that is a 'zero-sum' situation. There is a fixed amount of money to allocate among the few. Either everyone get pay the same, or some get pay higher at the expense of others.

If you make $50,000/yr at your company and your neighbor got a raise AT HIS COMPANY to $70,000/yr, that does not mean his company raided your salary of $20,000 in order to give him that raise. This is NOT a 'zero-sum' situation.

Here is a good basic explanation on INTERNAL economics...And from a woman who is smarter than you at that...

Ask Marilyn - Sunday's Column - November 20, 2011 | Parade.com

Economic growth refers to escalating productive transactions from the use of natural resources, technology development, labor, etc. It doesn’t correspond to population growth. A “growing” economy is one in which more and more of these buy-and-sell activities occur, regardless of the number of people involved. In other words, an economy can grow with a stable population. Economic growth is what raises our standard of living. An economy can be perfectly sound without an expanding output of goods and services, but the quality of everyday life won’t increase rapidly, if at all.

I cannot highlight anything because everything Vos Savant said is important and relevant to our arguments.

The US is abundant in natural resources for energy, from coal to dino juice to nuclear to solar and even wind. The US have four times land fit for agriculture over China despite the fact that both countries are nearly identical in bordered land.

Chinese Geography: Readings and Maps | Asia for Educators | Columbia University

...it can be seen that China has only a slightly larger land area, 3.69 million square miles compared to the 3.68 million square miles of the United States. However, while approximately 40% of the U.S. land can be cultivated, only 11% of China's land is arable.

China has three times the population and because of the one-child policy and culturally ingrained misogyny, there is now a serious gender imbalance to the point where there are males only villages. In the US, we call that condition a 'monastery'.

What this mean is that as long as there is a free market economic system that assured INTERNAL changes to resources from manpower to natural, the US economy will at least stabilize with little or no changes to quality of life, neither increases nor decreases, with little or no external influences. In such a loosely controlled system, there are inevitable rise and fall of the entire economic system, but that cycling aid economic growth. Even the Chinese realized this despite the Chinese government attempt to have a tight rein on China's economy because there are discrete sectors in the Chinese economy that dips while others rise. No different than US.

What this also mean is that Chinese economic growth is not from 'raiding' the American economy in terms of denying the US economy of our resources, human and natural. If the American economy declines, it is because of mismanagement or of the natural cycling of a capitalist free market system. Even the Chinese realized this.

But not you.

 

[Khitan21]

I agree with these points but China's population is still too big for its economy. Even if growth rates continue like this (it won't) China will have economic issues. China has 1.5 billion population, comapre that too European population. Plus because of China's one child policy, China has one of the most oldest population in the world, so in the future cheap labor will become an issue for China because it won't be able to provide it. I think another economic disaster is coming within 10 years and global demand will drop, this will hit Asia the hardest.

Obviously all countries who reach near develop or developed status will see their growth rates drop, China is no exception; don't forget the United States experienced double digit growth before becoming developed. If nothing goes wrong in the future, China, according to Goldman Sachs, will have an economy big enough to keep the majority of Chinese people relatively wealthy, solving your "China's too big for it's economy" problem.

You also need to see China as a continent - made up of different countries like Europe. Europe has a similar size in population and would reach one billion in population in the future, but does that mean Europe's population is too big for its economy? No, because each individual nation in europe is very wealthy, which would also be the case for China in the future; Each province in China would be like a very wealthy individual country.

Has it occurred to you that China is not completely moronic, inept and blind to the problems at hand? The fears of China being the nation with the oldest population similar to Japan is steadily becoming a reality as early as late 2020s to early 2030s, but that still gives them plenty of time to implement a two or even three child policy that can help mollify the aging problem. The current working population still has a good couple decades of working years ahead of them before growing old, feeble and yelling at kids to get of their lawn whilst sitting on their rocking chair.

The next president of China: Xi Jinping, will be tasked with rectifying China's aging problem and most likely one his first acts would be to implement the highly discussed two child policy or even three child policy to solve said problem. Whether the two or three child policy would work in the future remains to be seen, but if it does it would not only cure the aging problem that has been looming over China's shoulders but may also solve the persistent gender ratio in balance issues, as it's possible for parents to have both genders of kids instead of aborting baby girls in favor of boys.

And I highly doubt there would be any economic death train ramming into Asia any time soon, at least not from your theory.

 

[senheiser]

stratfor is american biased

 

[Wombat]

It is a zero-sum game.

It does not matter if the US keeps growing at 2% a year till 2030 becuase if China manages 8% a year up to 2030, then China will be around twice as rich.

2x the wealth would translate into a vastly more powerful military than the US would be able to afford.

Why do people not see the fact that the US is in decline due to the fact that China is fast catching up with it?

GDP growth calculation of developed and developing country shouldn't be looked at , just from only percentage % point of view , one of reason is because developing country need basic infrastructure like housing , road , railways etc in large number which can increase the growth domestic percentage considerable.

On your comment of overtake of china as no 1 economy . it may or may not .. ever if US active a growth of 3-4% and China remain at 8-10 .. it will still take china a considerable time to archive number one status. you only need to look at GDP purchasing power parity per capita for this.

For the past 2 year China has slow down a bit due to Europe and US , couple with mistrust on the accuracy of the data released by Chinese government and lack of transparency , nobody really know what the GDP % actually is..

I believe - the world will accept a rising china and wish it well for the betterment of mankind, and her people what it wont do is accept a bully country on the same path as Japan in the 1930-40.

Cheers

 

[atatwolf]

stratfor is american biased

nothing wrong with that. you have to look at the Arguments and judge.

 

[Audio]

And population is a fortune not a burden，you get it completely wrong.

Such a fortune you limit it by having only one child. Yep, he gets it completely wrong.

 

[northeast]

Such a fortune you limit it by having only one child. Yep, he gets it completely wrong.

It's a burden to CCP，but a fortune to the country.