Disintegration of China because of economic collapse?

[jbond197]

Well, Americans love disintegration. I fear US doesn't disintegrate itself and even fall of the fiscal cliff.

Shootings, crimes and the spread of needless hate and what not is happening in the US.

As far China is concerned, it needs improvement no doubt, but China has the ability to sustain its growth as it has loads of Cash.

However, this does not mean that I in any way support Chinese regime. But I just want the nosy Americans to worry about their own problems.

Dude, a few Americans predicting some thing in individual capacity does not make them a part of American foreign policy. Stop demonizing America for every $hit happening world over!!

 

[Vassnti]

Comment on this:


"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."
."

China has made remarkable transition from foreign based growth to domestic growth a few years ago i was wondering as well how an export driven economy would cope with its customers going broke. They seemed to have managed in the short term.

I do wonder at the transperancy of figures on China's economy but iron ore prices in WA are holding up, if they are still buying ore they are still making steel and hopefully that is going into products not wharehouses. Perhaps when you see coal and iron ore prices tank then you should worry about whats going wrong in China?

 

[sweetgrape]

Many people hope China collapse, although they say hope Chinese can be richer and better in public, we all know these, as these people's opinion, for example western opinion, china should have collapased.
After more than 30 years later, they are unwilling to give up in dampening China, never mind, let they keep it, at least they have a wish.

I agree with Beast, for china, it is not bad thing, it can keep us be careful, China are good at turning bad thing to a good opportunity, this is China, the reason why China can success, but some other can't.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China has made remarkable transition from foreign based growth to domestic growth a few years ago i was wondering as well how an export driven economy would cope with its customers going broke. They seemed to have managed in the short term.

That's right.

I hope he will check the figures provided in the Financial Times article. Consumption has become the largest engine of Chinese growth, followed by Investment.

Net exports actually subtracted 5.5% from China's growth in 2011!

Anyways if we both nations survive 40 yrs of high growth rate. History will be indeed rewritten and all these hating mouths will be shut for good.

Damn right. We'll show them simply by continuing to work hard, and we'll prove them wrong.

 

[jbond197]

A strong China is a strong Asia.

A Strong China may be good for China and its allies but it does not in any ways mean Strong Asia.. There are way too many countries in Asia which opposes China's policies and bullying..

That's right.

I hope he will check the figures provided in the Financial Times article. Consumption has become the largest engine of Chinese growth, followed by Investment.

Net exports actually subtracted 5.5% from China's growth in 2011!



Damn right. We'll show them simply by continuing to work hard, and we'll prove them wrong.

But your economy is still export driven. Internal consumption is way too low compared to what you export. The danger of buyer going broke will always be dangling over your head. Also, companies moving to other places for importing stuff can impact too..

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But your economy is still export driven. Internal consumption is way too low compared to what you export. The danger of buyer going broke will always be dangling over your head. Also companies moving to other places for importing stuff can impact too..

No, China's economy is investment-driven. Check the numbers.

In fact, Net exports have been a negative drag on China's growth for the past 5 years or so.

More to the point, we have been transitioning towards a consumption-based economy for at least the past few years. The results are showing now in the composition of our GDP growth, and the transition will probably be complete in another few years or so.

 

[jbond197]

No, China's economy is investment-driven. Check the numbers.

In fact, Net exports have been a negative drag on China's growth for the past 5 years or so.

What if investors go broke or develop a different taste? I think investors are putting their money to get products manufacture in China and to sell them to the buyers in open market so in the end, everything is related and one impacts the other in the chain.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

What if investors go broke or develop a different taste? I think investors are putting their money to get products manufacture in China and to sell them to the buyers in open market so in the end, everything is related and one impacts the other in the chain.

The vast majority of investment in China is domestic investment, and a significant chunk of that is Government-directed investment (through the use of state-owned companies).

The Government is not as fickle as private investors, who want instant profits. Many vital parts of the national infrastructure are not very profitable, but they do need to be built for the overall development of the country.

 

[sweetgrape]

A Strong China may be good for China and its allies but it does not in any ways mean Strong Asia.. There are way too many countries in Asia which opposes China's policies and bullying..

To many countries, like Indian, Viet, Japan, SK, Philippine, USA, A strong China is not in their national interest, we know, but for 1.3 BILLION population of china, it is, and the countries operated by us, we don't like bullying small countries, but if they are bitchy, we will "bully" them.

But your economy is still export driven. Internal consumption is way too low compared to what you export. The danger of buyer going broke will always be dangling over your head. Also, companies moving to other places for importing stuff can impact too..

Yes, internal consumption is a little low, but whether I can interpret is as a big potence? just like 30 years ago, our export was small, now, you know. don't forget that we have 1.3 billion, hugest population, and hugest consumption market.
Just think deeply, any difficulty are opportunity, and now, we are working for the transform.

 

[Silverblaze]

Dude, a few Americans predicting some thing in individual capacity does not make them a part of American foreign policy. Stop demonizing America for every $hit happening world over!!

I agree individuals dont matter, but the think tanks there do the same. Lectures, books and media campaign is launched to demonize anyone.

American foreign policy is deeply affected by these think tanks because many of the people there maintain influence in the administrative.

Americans may be good, but their foreign policy is not right for themselves. US has largest share of responsibility because it is matchless in power. So, they should be criticized whenever they mess things up.

 

[cnleio]

In the West views, RPC should been collapsing for many times...
1. 1949 should collaspe because a poor agricultural country to feed 400million ppl;
2. 1979 should collaspe becuase the end of 10-year Culture Revolution;
3. 1989 should collaspe because Tiananmen incident;
4. 1998 should collaspe because The Asian financial crisis;
5. Future sometime should collaspe because like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states,China must collaspe.


FOOL~!
1. 1949-today China not only feed 400million ppl also grow to now 1.3billion ppl here;
2. 1949-1970 China spent one generation to change a agriculture country to building full industrial systems.
3. 1979 China owned the nuclear industry/missile industry/outterspace industry, produced aircrafts/ships/vehicles and exported to other third world countries.
4. 1989-2000 China imported foreign investments and sold kinds of goods to all Western countriest,earning $$$ from the West.Developing our Aerospace/Aviation/Shipbuilding/Automatic/High-tech communications industry;
5. 1998 China joint WTO,then development of China's economic explosion;
6. Future ... China is ur new investor and Gold Lord.



Im a Chinese here close to 30ago,a engineer. U know what? The amazing thing for my life is enjoying my younger years in here specially when China is experiencing high-speed developments. I enjoy the time also get rich by my skills, i got my house(although not big), got my car, i believe the China Dream will finally come true. U might ever heard the America Dream,now it's the China Dream time. GOD BLESS CHINA and All Chinese ~!

 

[jbond197]

The vast majority of investment in China is domestic investment, and a significant chunk of that is Government-directed investment (through the use of state-owned companies).

The Government is not as fickle as private investors, who want instant profits. Many vital parts of the national infrastructure are not very profitable, but they do need to be built for the overall development of the country.

Oh, so China is going Indian public sector way. Nice! Let me tell you one thing that doing business in not a function of any countries governance body. India initially did the same mistake and started with setting up many huge public sector companies which ended up only to become a burden and since for them there was no real competition/pressure they transformed into lethargic and money sucking units. Hope China is not taking the same route.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Oh, so China is going Indian public sector way. Nice! Let me tell you one thing that doing business in not a function of any countries governance body. India initially did the same mistake and started with setting up many huge public sector companies which ended up only to become a burden and with no real competition/pressure transformed into lethargic and money sucking units. Hope China is not taking the same route.

This is a very big risk of course. State-owned companies, especially large ones tend to be inherently inefficient due to the lack of competition.

The Government has broken up large state-owned companies and forced them to compete with each other, which provides some level of competition but is still arguably inefficient.

But the real growth engines of China's economy are the companies in the private sector like Lenovo and Huawei. The private sector provides the growth, and the public sector provides the stability (for example by providing mass employment).

 

[my2cents]

Comment on this:

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

Chinese have already moved from export and investment oriented to consumption led economic growth. Consumption has contributed to 55% of their growth this past year. This has not happened in more than 2 decades. It resembles India's consumption let growth today. They have big enough population to reorient themselves and become less dependent on United states and European markets for their growth.

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

They still have cheap labor in plenty. Their rural population of 600 million people is big enough to fill any gaps in labor shortage. Their one child policy is not etched on stone that they have to abide by.... if needed they will revoke it to address any shortfall in labor pool.

 

[oct605032048]

Comment on this:


"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

China's GDP in 2011 was 7.3 Trillion USD (GDP per capita $5500). By 2020 the GDP per capita of China will be more than likely higher than $11000 which is roughly Turkey's GDP per capita today.

You are talking about the "collapse" of an economy that is 20 times greater than yours. No one knows the future but we have faith in my country.