PakBrother mine,
Indeed, a valid, simple question!
To answer this simple question in a simple manner is rather difficult to say the least!
In short, the
PRC is
reacting to
IndoPacificPartnership and threats to
XinJiang and
Tibet.
India by offering itself as
Frontline State Against China .... wishes to join the high table of the
US led CombinedWest ... which is bent upon
Containing China.
The paper, illegal annexation of
IoJK and declaring
Ladakh a UnionTerritory by the
ModiRegime was the breaking of the promises/assurances he made to Pres. Xi.
The Indians also accelerated
military infrastructure development in
Ladakh..which could be a threat to
XinJiang and
Tibet.... and
then, and only then... to CPEC.
The pressure that the US wishes to build on
China in SouthChinaSea is directly related to
mirroring it to
AfroPak/AfroAsianOcean falsely called IndianOcean..
an imperical designation!
INS is to become the
Policeman in AfroPak/AfroAsianOcean...challenging
PLAN and the
Chiense SeaLines of Communications....
Containment!
We cann't truly know what the Chinese want...because it is
not a unidimmensional approach or outcome...hence, the most we can do is speculations!
Let us have a look at the Map of Eurasia....
Now, as you can see:
- China and Russia are in Strategic Coordination.
- Pakistan and China are Strategic Partners
- China and CentralAsia are SCO partners and tied by energy deals.
- China and Afghanistan ...well, XinJiang again... but with the Yanks leaving...the good Indians will have to leave... so a lessening headache.
- China and EastAsia biggest trading partners... expect for Japan's Existential Angst... presence of the US troops
- China and NorthKorea.... Fat Kim is just a boy...and sedate...all good there!
- China and Taiwan .... intertiwned through business and people...so alot of soundbites and sabber rattling..but StatusQuo.
- China and ASEAN biggest tradding partners... also BRI... increasing Sinofication of AESAN trade/economy. FTA... alot of noise around SouthChinaSea but none of the ASEAN will go beyond that
- China and India.... China tried to incite India through BRICS, SCO, AIIB and China-Russis-India Trilateral Framework...but India has been tilting towards the US since the 1990s... ModiRegime only accelerated the process...
India decided since 2000s that it was to be Competitor to China... a Rival power...with ambitions to become a SuperPower... hence, it has been opposing BRI and CPEC rather vocally... Now it has been signing StrategicAgreements with all of the ChinaContianmentParty members...
Please, also consider..that India publishing
maps showing GB/AJK and parts of China territories as its own...and making loud claims to regain these by force....
KhooniVirus came and turned the world into
Giant IoJK!!!
China got the blame...and the good Indians went overboard with blaming China...calling it ChineseVirus, echoing
Mr. Trump's Tweet!
Even here on PDF the good Indians made it their mission to call the
KhooniVirus as such...
The TradeWar between the US and China was barely... concluding that the
KhooniVirus struck..WHO got grinded in the middle... and India voted to for an investigation...primarily targeting the Chinese..by its design.
Now the song of
Decoupling with the Chinese economy is getting louder...easy said than done...but the rhetoric will gain more momentum...
India wishes to gain by the Chinese loss... by positioning itself as
Frontline State Against China ...
5G is another front in this
Hybridwar! And India is opposing the Chinese company..siting security concerns...echoing America agian.
Also, if you have read...
IndianGov put restriciton on the Chinese companies investing in India during the
KhooniVirus lockdown and after it... since, Indian economy is in recession and heading towards a depression...as its CreditRatings are now practically junk...making cost of borrowing higher!
Why now, you asked?
It makses logical sense to conclude that the
PLA actions were
planned sometime back and now executed with speed..surprising the Indians.
Imagine... what are the probabilities... the US and Indians doing joint exercises in IndianOccupied Ladakh... the US establishing intelligence presence there...in collaboration with RAW..
If you recall the
US Senate passed
Tibet Bill and
HongKong Bill and soon
XinJiang Bill...
(Never for PakKashmiris in IoJK!!!)
When you put all of the above, perhaps, it becomes clear that
China is forced to react to counter what might be coming down the road... a kinda
Proactive Reaction, to secure XinJiang and Tibet!
My sense is that the Chinese have concluded that the good Indians are
not going to be netural in
Sino-US ColdWar3.0 but rather they will be the
Frontline State Against China ... think
DalaiLama replacement sooner than later....
Therefore,
the Chinese are trying to establish pre-emptive Facts-on-the-Ground with PLA Activism...
not to make India choose..but to keep it preoccupied.... while not going for full frontal war... just keeping it under pressure... and having options to increase the pressure should India go a bit too hostile....
In the meantime, trade will be ongoing...
Indians on AsocialMedia and other media will keep on spewing rage/hate against China... but trade will be ongoing...
Ladakh, Nepal and Sikkim make access to the soft underbelly of China...
the PRC wishes to create a Firewall now...
What are Pakistan's Options in all this, you have posed?
Not many!
However,
IF there is a
Strategic Framework of Defence...then we can create tons of headache for the good Indians... from
CeaseFireLine to
IB... without going into full fledge war...
We can do a reverse of what the good Indians did when they stationed their troops along our borders for a year.... we can do the same.. but then someone has to foot the bill!!!
I don't see the Chinese going down the sweet talking
India's Rabbit Hole...
Modi has broken too many promises already... and
Xi cann't take a risk in Tibet and XinJiang...
more important than SouthChinaSea!
The Chines will try to keep Indians under pressure on different point on
LCA...with enough muscle in the backup to discourage any adventure from the Indians...
However, should there by some
really powerful impulse within the ModiRegime to prove that India is a GreatPower and will not be intimidated by China....
it might do something rash... and then all bets are off!
Enter Russia as PeaceMaker!!!
It is, also, imperative that we undertand that
if the OIC is not taking the Cause of PakKashmiris...
then we are on our own....
with a singular partner who has its Own Interests at Heart first and farmost!!!
Hopefully, this helps to develop a productive discussion....
Mangus
@masterchief_mirza @Ace of Spades @Slav Defence @Socra @PakSword @RescueRanger @Signalian @PanzerKiel @BHarwana @LeGenD @Arsalan @Blacklight @Verve @jaibi
