Chinese Leadership's motivation behind latest escalation with India

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

I bet it has just happened discord, and commotion at the local level.

During all previous border incidents, local commanders were unable to do anything, but to take satellite phones and trying to hours go up the chain of command. Now, with all the disarray from the two sessions, something must have broke in the command chain, and the guy just took initiative into his own hands.

I don't believe that Xi was that much desperate to throw a distraction, given that Chinese media were dead silent about it for weeks, and if he were to do so, there would've been other options on the table. Now Xi himself throws mixed signals about this, possibly looking for an option to stand down without it looking like a retreat.

Wu Shezhou lost one star, and relived of Western theatre command because of Doklam incident three years ago. We will have to see how Zhao Zongqi (the current Western theatre commander) will fare, if he loses a start or two, it was unintentional, if he are to retire quietly in a few years, then it was unintentional, but Zhongnanhai didn't disapprove of him, and if he will be given a pat on the head, then it would be Xi's doing after all.

I have heard of Zhao being one of few ballsy generals left in the general staff. Xi has replaced a lot of generals after Xu purge. Most of new ones are of very humble service records.

Do local commanders have that sort of freedom? The move seemed pretty aggressive and spanned over days whilst being reported in the media. Is it possible for CCP to have ignored something like this if indeed it was a locally planned affair.

Or is it that it started out as a local affair but the CCP let it play out? However, given the nature of the issue and global events occurring, it would be strange for China to have acted without much thought on such an issue.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

partially agreed on this one,to started a new front line in the far west with Indian while we are occupied with Yankees doesn't sound logical thus my understanding of the current situation is a strike back to those who wanted to takes advantage of the epidemic in early march till April as some suggests that the Indian started preparing since early March, but things has changed too fast and now it is China who doesn't wanted to let it go easily.

Yes. This is also entirely plausible.

 

[Signalian]

PakBrother mine,

Indeed, a valid, simple question!

To answer this simple question in a simple manner is rather difficult to say the least!

In short, the PRC is reacting to IndoPacificPartnership and threats to XinJiang and Tibet.

India by offering itself as Frontline State Against China .... wishes to join the high table of the US led CombinedWest ... which is bent upon Containing China.

The paper, illegal annexation of IoJK and declaring Ladakh a UnionTerritory by the ModiRegime was the breaking of the promises/assurances he made to Pres. Xi.

The Indians also accelerated military infrastructure development in Ladakh..which could be a threat to XinJiang and Tibet.... and then, and only then... to CPEC.

The pressure that the US wishes to build on China in SouthChinaSea is directly related to mirroring it to AfroPak/AfroAsianOcean falsely called IndianOcean..an imperical designation!

INS is to become the Policeman in AfroPak/AfroAsianOcean...challenging PLAN and the Chiense SeaLines of Communications.... Containment!

We cann't truly know what the Chinese want...because it is not a unidimmensional approach or outcome...hence, the most we can do is speculations!

Let us have a look at the Map of Eurasia....

Now, as you can see:

• China and Russia are in Strategic Coordination.
  
  
• Pakistan and China are Strategic Partners
  
  
• China and CentralAsia are SCO partners and tied by energy deals.
  
  
• China and Afghanistan ...well, XinJiang again... but with the Yanks leaving...the good Indians will have to leave... so a lessening headache.
  
  
• China and EastAsia biggest trading partners... expect for Japan's Existential Angst... presence of the US troops
  
  
• China and NorthKorea.... Fat Kim is just a boy...and sedate...all good there!
  
  
• China and Taiwan .... intertiwned through business and people...so alot of soundbites and sabber rattling..but StatusQuo.
  
  
• China and ASEAN biggest tradding partners... also BRI... increasing Sinofication of AESAN trade/economy. FTA... alot of noise around SouthChinaSea but none of the ASEAN will go beyond that
  
  
• China and India.... China tried to incite India through BRICS, SCO, AIIB and China-Russis-India Trilateral Framework...but India has been tilting towards the US since the 1990s... ModiRegime only accelerated the process...
  India decided since 2000s that it was to be Competitor to China... a Rival power...with ambitions to become a SuperPower... hence, it has been opposing BRI and CPEC rather vocally... Now it has been signing StrategicAgreements with all of the ChinaContianmentParty members...

Please, also consider..that India publishing maps showing GB/AJK and parts of China territories as its own...and making loud claims to regain these by force....

KhooniVirus came and turned the world into Giant IoJK!!!

China got the blame...and the good Indians went overboard with blaming China...calling it ChineseVirus, echoing Mr. Trump's Tweet!

Even here on PDF the good Indians made it their mission to call the KhooniVirus as such...

The TradeWar between the US and China was barely... concluding that the KhooniVirus struck..WHO got grinded in the middle... and India voted to for an investigation...primarily targeting the Chinese..by its design.

Now the song of Decoupling with the Chinese economy is getting louder...easy said than done...but the rhetoric will gain more momentum...

India wishes to gain by the Chinese loss... by positioning itself as Frontline State Against China ...

5G is another front in this Hybridwar! And India is opposing the Chinese company..siting security concerns...echoing America agian.

Also, if you have read... IndianGov put restriciton on the Chinese companies investing in India during the KhooniVirus lockdown and after it... since, Indian economy is in recession and heading towards a depression...as its CreditRatings are now practically junk...making cost of borrowing higher!

Why now, you asked?

It makses logical sense to conclude that the PLA actions were planned sometime back and now executed with speed..surprising the Indians.

Imagine... what are the probabilities... the US and Indians doing joint exercises in IndianOccupied Ladakh... the US establishing intelligence presence there...in collaboration with RAW..

If you recall the US Senate passed Tibet Bill and HongKong Bill and soon XinJiang Bill... (Never for PakKashmiris in IoJK!!!)

When you put all of the above, perhaps, it becomes clear that China is forced to react to counter what might be coming down the road... a kinda Proactive Reaction, to secure XinJiang and Tibet!

My sense is that the Chinese have concluded that the good Indians are not going to be netural in Sino-US ColdWar3.0 but rather they will be the Frontline State Against China ... think DalaiLama replacement sooner than later....

Therefore, the Chinese are trying to establish pre-emptive Facts-on-the-Ground with PLA Activism... not to make India choose..but to keep it preoccupied.... while not going for full frontal war... just keeping it under pressure... and having options to increase the pressure should India go a bit too hostile....

In the meantime, trade will be ongoing... Indians on AsocialMedia and other media will keep on spewing rage/hate against China... but trade will be ongoing...

Ladakh, Nepal and Sikkim make access to the soft underbelly of China... the PRC wishes to create a Firewall now...

What are Pakistan's Options in all this, you have posed?

Not many!

However, IF there is a Strategic Framework of Defence...then we can create tons of headache for the good Indians... from CeaseFireLine to IB... without going into full fledge war...

We can do a reverse of what the good Indians did when they stationed their troops along our borders for a year.... we can do the same.. but then someone has to foot the bill!!!

I don't see the Chinese going down the sweet talking India's Rabbit Hole...

Modi has broken too many promises already... and Xi cann't take a risk in Tibet and XinJiang... more important than SouthChinaSea!

The Chines will try to keep Indians under pressure on different point on LCA...with enough muscle in the backup to discourage any adventure from the Indians...

However, should there by some really powerful impulse within the ModiRegime to prove that India is a GreatPower and will not be intimidated by China.... it might do something rash... and then all bets are off!

Enter Russia as PeaceMaker!!!

It is, also, imperative that we undertand that if the OIC is not taking the Cause of PakKashmiris...then we are on our own.... with a singular partner who has its Own Interests at Heart first and farmost!!!

Hopefully, this helps to develop a productive discussion....

Mangus

@masterchief_mirza @Ace of Spades @Slav Defence @Socra @PakSword @RescueRanger @Signalian @PanzerKiel @BHarwana @LeGenD @Arsalan @Blacklight @Verve @jaibi

I have few different views from your post.

For you, CPEC is not the front-line issue why China is showing presence in Ladakh and Sikkim currently. You said its XinJiang and Tibet, and after that its CPEC, if i interpreted correctly. That could be due to the J&K map issued by Modi regime showing Chinese area as India's or Chinese own ambitions in the region for its regional security.

I put Chinese ambitions defending CPEC first based on its history. If you study China, you will see that China laid its foundation in economy, and then other factors like military. Economy whether based on industry, human resources, trading etc is the most important factor for China and its the critical factor on which China stands today opposite to USA. I will not go deep into economics here or the debt owed by USA to China or GDP or how many billions and trillions China starts investing in every opportunity it gets. It is by the end of the day, all economics. USA's economics to a major extent was weapon trading and exports to many countries of the world, in almost every region while Chinese was investment and trading and then technology. The technological gap is also closing quickly since past 20 years between China and USA, but remember its the economy which China strengthened firstly and now its progress in all domains is based on that. CPEC is about economy and trading. China will defend its economy and trade as top priority and then it will follow its other ambitions- globally and regionally.

One has to look at other factors also, like, Pakistan-Chinese strategic friendship since the independence of both countries and then to which extent will both countries and their military join together for an operation or war. In 1962, its said that Chinese did talk to Pakistan for a second front but Ayub Khan capitulated under sweet words of USA that UN will resolve Kashmir issue, no need of going to war. In 1965, neither China nor USA showed up. In 1971, Chinese had helped already during 66-71 by sending military assets like Tanks and aircrafts but didn't join in war. In 1999, Pakistan had India cornered badly in J&K and Chinese mustered up a track or road near Ladakh when prompted by Pakistan. Both sides are guilty of not joining each other in a war when opportunity presented itself.

Now look at how USA wins its wars, it first gathers its allies like NATO and currently ISF and then invades. This has been going on since WW1 and WW2 and later Korean war, Vietnam war, Gulf wars etc, except a few ones like Grenada, Panama. If USA goes in alone to invade or attack a country which is militarily strong like Iraq, it will face brutal losses though it will win. This means China going in alone lets say against India in J&K will achieve something but not to the extent of its full potential if not joined with Pakistan from the southern and western front. Similarly, near Sikkim, China needs support of Nepal or Bhutan to achieve its aims. USA's reaction is paramount if a war or a skirmish erupts, but currently Pakistan is important in US-Afghan exit strategy and USA has its own stakes against China in different domains.

Pakistan being a smaller country than China or India, can easily defend and win a skirmish on a small scale, but a full fledged war against India on borders will stretch Pakistani forces from coast to the mountains and thats where India gets its upper hand. At the end of the day, a war solely between India and Pakistan will weaken both countries. India could resurrect itself with USA help after that while China will help Pakistan, but due to CPEC's security China cannot stand on the lines and watch both countries fight with eachother watching as a mere spectator.

 

[Song Hong]

China withdrew after taking back her territory in 1962. Why she want incur tis moment?

 

[kankan326]

I don't believe that Xi was that much desperate to throw a distraction, given that Chinese media were dead silent about it for weeks, and if he were to do so, there would've been other options on the table.

Agree this point. If "War is continuation of politics by other means" , Xi definitely did not use this tension to serve any political purpose. We didn't see many reports about the LAC news in Chinese domestic media. On the other hand, this is the hottest topic in Indian media.

The one who has louder voice, must be the one who makes profit from it.

 

[Song Hong]

There is only childish street fighting at Lac. Not sure why Indian keep coming back.

 

[Paul2]

Or is it that it started out as a local affair but the CCP let it play out? However, given the nature of the issue and global events occurring, it would be strange for China to have acted without much thought on such an issue.

Imagine this scenario:

There is a ton of commotion, and discord from corona, and two sessions. There is a minor incident on the border that usually gets settled without even a record of it, but something breaks in the chain of command this time, and the officer on the ground can't get in touch with people who can make this decision.

The guy then decides that risking his rank, and annual bonus is a much safer bet than risking his head, and decides to escalate.

This goes on for a few days, and by the time zhongnanhai gets a whiff of it, it turns into a something much bigger than a local issues, which they can't just shut down.

 

[Paul2]

the end question is, this is a litmus test. if we cannot stand against India, then what are our options in other major theaters?

With recent news, indeed it is. The leaders are now turning this into balls size contest.

With me being stuck outside of China now, can't be more happy that I am.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

With recent news, indeed it is. The leaders are now turning this into balls size contest.

With me being stuck outside of China now, can't be more happy that I am.

nothing is going to happen inside China. it is the safest place in the world for an Asian person right now, just above South Korea.

 

[Asian.Century]

This is the whole strategy, its a global power race, who wins will rule the region and the world, the ultimate boss, these battles depict clearly India is an unreliable partner to US, India's illegal abrogation of Article 370 of Kashmir, making Pakistan and China dismiss it later, a threat to both Pakistan and China, protect our economic routes, India's building of infrastructure sneakily, China needs a show of power, Pakistan did it for past 20 years, that it's unbreakable on ground, can defend its skies, no matter what, ISI power will rule the region from Central Asia, to Afghanistan to Arabs and to China now.

India's Modi lost Strategically, tactically, and going down little details at operational levels last night at Galwan has big impact on national psyche, Look at it in deep meanings. The dignity of India is at stake. Indian Army has been morally destroyed, Media expose as lying as we know for past 10 years. Alot of validations, objectives achieved.

 

[tower9]

Pretty obvious what is going on. China sent Modi a message and indirectly sent Trump a message. "Stop fucking with us". It is as simple as that.

China's purpose was to tell Modi that the US won't be coming to his aid and that his political posturing will result in real humiliations that he won't be able to answer. He is dealing with a far stronger foe that was willing to be a friend, yet he betrayed their mutual understanding, so he has to pay. They are telling him that he chose to destroy their relationship and by killing Indian soldiers, China no longer gives a **** about its relationship with India and is willing to escalate and humiliate India further if Modi keeps at it.

It is also a message to Trump that China is ready to fight, so bring it on.

Salaam


"War is continuation of politics by other means" (Clausewitz)

What politics are Chinese playing with these other means.

This thread is meant to discuss the motivations of the Chinese leadership behind their move on the LAC.

The question isn't merely why are the Chinese doing this but why are they doing it now?

The Chinese strategic thinkers are looking at this on a massive chess board that has to account for not just the regional realities but also global realities. They also must be considering the economic effects this could have as well as the response of the western powers.

Keep in mind the Chinese have also recently made the move on Honk Kong. So there may be a larger game at play here than anything to do with India specifically.

Anyways, looking forward to a rational discussion.

(Please avoid pointless banter. It adds nothing to the discussion. There are plenty of threads where you can lob pointless insults at each other and show your patriotism.)

China is no longer restraining itself. That is the big strategic move here. It has accepted that the US and many other countries it is aligning have chosen to destroy their relationship with China and have taken away all carrots and replaced them with sticks. China is like a cornered tiger, it has no choice but to start clawing and biting back. HK was just the first step in this overall move. I wouldn't be surprised if China escalates this into a larger war with India and eventually invades Taiwan as well. China is figuring that if these countries is already treating it like the enemy, it will start making moves and really become the enemy of their nightmares until they back off.

 

[nahtanbob]

Pretty obvious what is going on. China sent Modi a message and indirectly sent Trump a message. "Stop fucking with us". It is as simple as that.

China's purpose was to tell Modi that the US won't be coming to his aid and that his political posturing will result in real humiliations that he won't be able to answer. He is dealing with a far stronger foe that was willing to be a friend, yet he betrayed their mutual understanding, so he has to pay. They are telling him that he chose to destroy their relationship and by killing Indian soldiers, China no longer gives a **** about its relationship with India and is willing to escalate and humiliate India further if Modi keeps at it.

It is also a message to Trump that China is ready to fight, so bring it on.



China is no longer restraining itself. That is the big strategic move here. It has accepted that the US and many other countries it is aligning have chosen to destroy their relationship with China and have taken away all carrots and replaced them with sticks. China is like a cornered tiger, it has no choice but to start clawing and biting back. HK was just the first step in this overall move. I wouldn't be surprised if China escalates this into a larger war with India and eventually invades Taiwan as well. China is figuring that if these countries is already treating it like the enemy, it will start making moves and really become the enemy of their nightmares until they back off.

With the coronavirus raging and China as the source of the virus the last thing China wants to do is a full fledged war

At the end of the day China is still in no position to challenge the US Navy or US Air Force

 

[tower9]

With the coronavirus raging and China as the source of the virus the last thing China wants to do is a full fledged war

At the end of the day China is still in no position to challenge the US Navy or US Air Force

Globally China is not in a position to challenge the US Navy but regionally China will be able to defeat US forces in East Asia.

Also, China has largely contained the virus even if there are flare ups. Yes, it isn't in China's interest to start a war with the US or India, but the US and India made China its enemy, ganging up with Japan, Australia, Canada, the UK, etc. This all triggers a traumatic experience in China's past in its century of humiliation. China will not sit around and just keep taking hits, it will begin to strike back.

 

[nahtanbob]

Globally China is not in a position to challenge the US Navy but regionally China will be able to defeat US forces in East Asia.

Also, China has largely contained the virus even if there are flare ups. Yes, it isn't in China's interest to start a war with the US or India, but the US and India made China its enemy, ganging up with Japan, Australia, Canada, the UK, etc. This all triggers a traumatic experience in China's past in its century of humiliation. China will not sit around and just keep taking hits, it will begin to strike back.

We are not talking a global war - regional clash with India or Taiwan. Unless China wants to make it one.

Sovereign states have the right to follow independent foreign policy. If China tries to bully smaller states they will team up in reaction.

ASEAN states, India and Taiwan had little to do with China's past century of humiliation.

 

[tower9]

We are not talking a global war - regional clash with India or Taiwan. Unless China wants to make it one.

Sovereign states have the right to follow independent foreign policy. If China tries to bully smaller states they will team up in reaction.

ASEAN states, India and Taiwan had little to do with China's past century of humiliation.

True but every move will welcome a reaction. China and India had come to a mutual understanding back in 2018 that they would not be adversaries. However, the Trump administration has acted to get India on board as an anti-China ally. It has provided India promises of cooperation, exchanges and setting up India as the replacement for China as a manufacturing hub. Obviously, this is music to Modi's ears and being the opportunist that he is, he has abandoned any good relationship with China to get on the anti-China track. This has already peaked tensions with China. On top of that, in order to prove that he was a useful ally to the US and the West, he started to annoy China at the line of control in Ladakh which has led up to the confrontation today. So I think this latest fight which has unfortunately led to some deaths, is a sign that China is ready to fight and escalate if needed to remind Modi that there are consequences to his anti-China stance.

Honestly, this is all Modi's miscalculation and he did it with the encouragement of the Trump administration.

India was not one of the nations that bullied China in the 19th century but jumping on board the anti-China wagon and provoking tensions at the border all triggers a bad memory. China is going to be pro-active and start acting aggressively as the US continues to get its allies to provoke China.