China's Malacca dilemma: How India controls Indian Ocean chokepoints

[dbc]

What missile in Indian arsenal has 600 nm range and can target moving targets with electronic countermeasures, CIWS and missile defense?

Indian airspace is open in a war. Even Delhi is open. Any war against India where they use the navy is a total war.

we are talking about commercial shipping traffic, oil/gas tankers and freight carriers not military vessels.
Air launched Brahmos has twice the range of its earthly cousin. Sure counter measures and missile defense will work against Brahmos as it does against the Dong Fengs.
But none of this is an option for commercial ships. Just the threat of an attack will send insurance premiums through the roof making shipping cost prohibitive.

 

[Zarvan]

They're after chinese cargo ships, the US has floated the idea before to seize chinese bound shipping to strangle the country.

every big powers are assertive, but China is our main big power adversary

sure it's easy to pin our hope on increasing our own military might, but that too seems very slow and distant, I don't have any illusion that Indonesia could stand a chance in it's own feet.

Trusting India will be your biggest mistake. They seriously hate Pakistan, and Muslims in general. What you and Malaysia need to do is that built your forces, specially Navy and Air Force. You need way bigger Navy, and Air Force, than what you currently have.

 

[bshifter]

That @dbc has once again demonstrated how to lower his IQ to the bottomless pit. To even think India has the capabilities to block merchant ships or even to blow them up from a safe distance. Not what you exactly would call think tank material. Begs the question how he got promoted in the first place.

In the event that India decides to block the Strait, will not allow any merchant ships to pass through. What does that mean? It simply means war, just in case there are others around as dumb as that idiot who does not know what the situation has escalated to. A war with China means we will deploy not only the Navy but also the Airforce, Army, Rocket force, cyber warfare to the space domain. Now think for a moment what Chinese stealth bombers will be doing to New Delhi. The last thing Indians will be thinking about is the Malacca Strait when their soil turns into a living nightmare.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

we are talking about commercial shipping traffic, oil/gas tankers and freight carriers not military vessels.
Air launched Brahmos has twice the range of its earthly cousin. Sure counter measures and missile defense will work against Brahmos as it does against the Dong Fengs.
But none of this is an option for commercial ships. Just the threat of an attack will send insurance premiums through the roof making shipping cost prohibitive.

if they block civil traffic, then they need to distinguish between Chinese and non Chinese ships. They can't at standoff range. They can't, even if they are looking at the ship, since most shipping is done under flags of convenience like Liberia or Panama. They'd have to board and look at the manifests.

a blockade also only works if you shoot at a navy that tries to contest it. if they shoot at civilians and then back down when the PLAN goes to contest, then they're just war criminals. if they shoot at the PLAN then its total war and Delhi is on the table.

 

[dbc]

That @dbc has once again demonstrated how to lower his IQ to the bottomless pit. To even think India has the capabilities to block merchant ships or even to blow them up from a safe distance. Not what you exactly would call think tank material. Begs the question how he got promoted in the first place.

In the event that India decides to block the Strait, will not allow any merchant ships to pass through. What does that mean? It simply means war, just in case there are others around as dumb as that idiot who does not know what the situation has escalated to. A war with China means we will deploy not only the Navy but also the Airforce, Army, Rocket force, cyber warfare to the space domain. Now think for a moment what Chinese stealth bombers will be doing to New Delhi. The last thing Indians will be thinking about is the Malacca Strait when their soil turns into a living nightmare.

Oh! did I upset you

Perhaps your IQ is too high to appreciate the subtle nuance of my earlier post. Allow me spell it out for you.

I did not say India will block Chinese shipping, I said India can block Chinese merchant traffic transiting through Malacca.
China can retaliate, rain rockets into Delhi as suggested by someone but at sea there isn't a damn thing China can do to protect shipping lanes so far from home base.

This may change in the future once China develops a blue water navy but not today.

cyber war, rocket force , stealth bomber .. Oh! China so mighty .I'm sure Modi is shitting himself as we speak.

if they block civil traffic, then they need to distinguish between Chinese and non Chinese ships. They can't at standoff range. They can't, even if they are looking at the ship, since most shipping is done under flags of convenience like Liberia or Panama. They'd have to board and look at the manifests.

a blockade also only works if you shoot at a navy that tries to contest it. if they shoot at civilians and then back down when the PLAN goes to contest, then they're just war criminals. if they shoot at the PLAN then its total war and Delhi is on the table.

..well depends on the current state of affairs. If rockets are raining into Delhi, I don't think India will think twice about sinking merchant vessels.
Just one is enough to discourage all merchant traffic. It's been done before, Iran, Libya and so on....

 

[striver44]

Trusting India will be your biggest mistake. They seriously hate Pakistan, and Muslims in general. What you and Malaysia need to do is that built your forces, specially Navy and Air Force. You need way bigger Navy, and Air Force, than what you currently have.

Bruh I don't trust anyone or pinning hope on anything. It's just what India will likely do once hostilities broke out.

Also, China hate muslim just as much, just look at what they did in Xinjiang towards their muslim population and their Hui muslim in Ningxia.

If anything, Pakistan as a self declared Muslim country should not be allies woth commies who's very core of belief is the rejection of god, let alone the one god.

 

[donkeykong]

China just have to divert water flow to xinjiang and india becomes a desert overnight lol. We get a rainforest in xinjiang and wipe out indians. Win win but lucky we such nice people lol.

Bruh I don't trust anyone or pinning hope on anything. It's just what India will likely do once hostilities broke out.

Also, China hate muslim just as much, just look at what they did in Xinjiang towards their muslim population and their Hui muslim in Ningxia.

If anything, Pakistan as a self declared Muslim country should not be allies woth commies who's very core of belief is the rejection of god, let alone the one god.

Ur country forced indigenou people to become muslim and race riots against chinese. Ur a massive lying hypocrite.

 

[SrNair]

Trusting India will be your biggest mistake. They seriously hate Pakistan, and Muslims in general. What you and Malaysia need to do is that built your forces, specially Navy and Air Force. You need way bigger Navy, and Air Force, than what you currently have.

Muslims?
We have second largest Muslim population?
That is our minority .
Where is your minority,?

Hate Pakistan?
As long as you are not minding in your own business.
You will face worst

What does 'safety of their own skies' mean in open war? They'll have to contest the PLAN. When they do, they will be defeated by 055 with longer range than their anti-ship missiles and PL-15 armed J-15 with longer range than their small little Mig-29s while the PLAN remains far out of range of their diesel conventional subs that can't reach the open ocean.



We can defeat IN directly or open up a ground front and defeat IA. Indian Ocean isn't your turf, it just has the name Indian in it.


all I see are nonstealthy 1980's ships with few VLS systems. They might be able to threaten Bangladesh, not China.

You can try and we are welcoming for it.
Our naval tradition goes back to centuries and have enough experience.
Only Navy that can challenge our might in our turf is USN .

Indian Ocean is the turf of Indian Navy .
From Malacca strait to Persian Gulf .
You wont move single ship through this area without our survelliance .
A&N islands is enough to block you once and for all.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

..well depends on the current state of affairs. If rockets are raining into Delhi, I don't think India will think twice about sinking merchant vessels.
Just one is enough to discourage all merchant traffic. It's been done before, Iran, Libya and so on....

that's the stupidest thing they could do because China has oil reserves and domestic production capable of sustaining a war for years while India doesn't. India will also be unable to distinguish merchant shipping and thus WILL end up sinking US allies shipping. They cannot distinguish since nobody uses their own flags for merchant vessels except the US due to the Jones Act.

India also will be unable to import oil itself when missiles are hitting their refineries, and their lack of oil hits far harder as India is less electrified and relies heavily on private diesel generators rather than power plants, further stressing their oil reserves.

The whole premise of "Indian navy blocks Chinese shipping" is predicated on China not shooting back. If China shoots back the entire plan falls apart.

You can try and we are welcoming for it.
Our naval tradition goes back to centuries and have enough experience.
Only Navy that can challenge our might in our turf is USN .

Indian Ocean is the turf of Indian Navy .
From Malacca strait to Persian Gulf .
You wont move single ship through this area without our survelliance .
A&N islands is enough to block you once and for all.

Your naval tradition is sinking your own submarines and using unstealthy 1980's ships with no VLS.

 

[striver44]

Ur country forced indigenou people to become muslim and race riots against chinese. Ur a massive lying hypocrite.

Hypocrite? Lmao
Majority of Indonesian muslim embrace Islam without being forced to do so, with an exception on some place like in Sumatra (Padri revolt 1800)

 

[Indos]

Hypocrite? Lmao
Majority of Indonesian muslim embrace Islam without being forced to do so, with an exception on some place like in Sumatra (Padri revolt 1800)

Padri revolt is a clash against Abangan (liberal) Islam. The revolt then become a fight against Dutch. Nothing to do with Muslim conversion since at that time Minang ethnic have already become Muslim.

 

[dbc]

that's the stupidest thing they could do because China has oil reserves and domestic production capable of sustaining a war for years while India doesn't. India will also be unable to distinguish merchant shipping and thus WILL end up sinking US allies shipping. They cannot distinguish since nobody uses their own flags for merchant vessels except the US due to the Jones Act.

India also will be unable to import oil itself when missiles are hitting their refineries, and their lack of oil hits far harder as India is less electrified and relies heavily on private diesel generators rather than power plants, further stressing their oil reserves.

The whole premise of "Indian navy blocks Chinese shipping" is predicated on China not shooting back. If China shoots back the entire plan falls apart.

Plenty of examples in history of innocent merchant traffic being hit and sunk. Oil reserves yes, domestic production no not enough to sustain the economy and war efforts - China needs more than just oil.
I speak of a state of affairs where India is prepared to escalate and suffer the consequences of Chinese retaliation and international condemnation. Like I said, Iran and Libya were both pushed to attack Maritime traffic, India may cross that threshold too if sufficiently provoked. It has been done before, going back to dawn of maritime trade, U2 boats....

 

[striver44]

Padri revolt is a clash against Abangan (liberal) Islam. The revolt then become a fight against Dutch. Nothing to do with Muslim conversion since at that time Minang ethnic have already become Muslim.

nope Padri revlt is against the Pagaruyung Kingdom which at the time are shiites (like the majority of the Minagkabau people at the time).
You should read the book Tuanku Rao, Terror Mazhab Hambali di Tanah Batak,
after the fall of Pagaruyung the Padrist invaded Batak highlands

 

[fallstuff]

A move like this will have untold unintended consequences , I doubt Modi will make a move like this, then again he did shot himself on the foot with demonetization !

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Plenty of examples in history of innocent merchant traffic being hit and sunk. Oil reserves yes, domestic production no not enough to sustain the economy and war efforts - China needs more than just oil.
I speak of a state of affairs where India is prepared to escalate and suffer the consequences of Chinese retaliation and international condemnation. Like I said, Iran and Libya were both pushed to attack Maritime traffic, India may cross that threshold too if sufficiently provoked. It has been done before, going back to dawn of maritime trade, U2 boats....

Innocent merchant ships being sunk = US allies such as South Korea and Japan being attacked by India, a non-US ally. Will US honor its treaty obligations? That is the worst case scenario for the US: it either does nothing and fails its treaty obligations to India, a much weaker country, or it honors its treaty obligations and prevents the Indian military from sinking merchant ships.

In a war economy, the oil that is available will be diverted towards warfare. War economies take place during total war. India blockading China will be a total war because there is no way for China to stop India from blockading the straits without destroying the Indian military. Since China has 5x higher GDP, a larger advantage than that the US enjoyed over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, India is likely to be defeated in a total war the same way the Axis were.

India is prepared to suffer the consequences, but it will be of little use in the long run, as India is totally isolated from oil imports without seaports and can't reach any Chinese population centers, while China has forces right next to Delhi.