China's Malacca dilemma: How India controls Indian Ocean chokepoints

[Indus Pakistan]

I am just a old, dumb basket compared to you wiseguys but just one thing. In a eventuality where war broke out between India we would expect USA and West to also get involved. In this environment why would there be need for massive Chinese shipping along those lines?

One would expect trade to cease with the West. Are the Chinese going to try and keep their banana supplies from Africa going in return for floral Chinese made shirts to Nigeria? The Chinese would literally do another "1962" on India and launch mass attack along the McMahon Line and LAC causing the Indian Army to do a Usain Bolt down mountains and hide under their women's Sari's in Delhi.

 

[vi-va]

I am not fond of enough with Indian military presence in Andaman and Nicobar, they are big power and any big power want to assert their influence including ASEAN and the three countries in Malaka. If anything, we should increase our own military power in Aceh and North Sumatra to check them, and prevent their ilegal incursion in which happened regularly.
One thing to be mention, India is the same with China they are aggressive and quite assertive

Indonesia is the biggest player of Strait of Malacca. Period.
Just like Iran hold Strait of Hormuz, Turkey hold Bosphorus Straits.

 

[TheSnakeEatingMarkhur]

View attachment 689584


India has naval capabilities near the Indian Ocean chokepoints especially around the Malacca Strait which connects the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, these waters hold a lot of importance for China since it is a crucial route for energy and trade.

India had threatened a naval blockade of Pakistan previously during the 1971 war. New Delhi has never issued any such threat against Beijing. The Indian navy was reportedly placed on high alert following the Galwan Valley clash.

However, there was no official word on whether the Indian Navy was considering a blockade on Chinese shipping or whether it was considering interdicting Chinese tankers near the Andaman and Nicobar islands, or perhaps looking at diverting shipping traffic to and from China.


In June, reports hinted at chances of the United States moving its carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt into the Malacca Straits area in a show of support for India. In the same month, the Global Times was singing praises about China responding by carrying out Naval drills in the South China Sea.


China knows that it is on the backfoot in the Indian Ocean. Beijing knows that Malacca dilemma. India is in a position where it can monitor the traffic at the Malacca Straits or the Lombok and Sunda straits. It can put pressure on the movement of merchant ships while traffic in the high seas that is waters beyond 12 nautical miles from the coast cannot be impeded. This rule will not apply in the event of a war.

China's disadvantage in high seas becomes all the more grave in the South China Sea where China is fighting six countries. Eighty per cent of China's oil imports come through the Malacca Strait. It is also the route for a considerable amount of Chinese trade.

India has been strengthening its maritime cooperation with the Quad countries. In September for the first time, an American P-8 Poseidon long-range maritime patrol aircraft refuelled at an Indian base in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

In October, New Delhi and Washington signed an agreement to expand military satellite information sharing. India is also planning to strengthen its maritime infrastructure. A deepwater port is being built on the great Nicobar island for $1.3 billion.

It is not for nothing that India is working towards building these naval capacities.

China's Malacca dilemma: How India controls Indian Ocean chokepoints

India has naval capabilities near the Indian Ocean chokepoints especially around the Malacca Strait which connects the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, these waters hold a lot of importance for China since it is a crucial route for energy and trade. India had threatened a naval blockade of...

www.wionews.com

Wion news biggest online liar

 

[Sharma Ji]

 

[dbc]

If Indian navy tried the only thing that would happen is that India would no longer have a navy.

Their air defense destroyers have less range than nearly every single air launched anti-ship cruise missile in existence.

A very arrogant response, mostly bluster though. PLAN does not have the reach to strike the Indian Navy in Malacca strait. Unless you are still fantasizing about DongFeng BM strikes against Naval ships.

You may want to take a good look at a map, the Indians don't really have to use their Navy to block the strait,
They can simply air launch anti-ship missiles from the relative safety of their own skies.

 

[Indos]

Singapore would likely reject those moves.

A US Navy First Fleet based out of Singapore? Not likely, analysts say

The US Navy Secretary’s proposal is seen as a ‘trial balloon’ that is unlikely to garner immediate regional support.

www.scmp.com

Of course Singapore establishment will reject it since US try to make other fleet base in their soil and sea territory beside in Japan in this current US vs China phase which is still not yet blowing into a full scale war.

ASEAN nations understand that it will make the region become so tense and make it become a punching back between US and China. The reason ASEAN economy is thriving is due to the commitments of the members here to avoid any military tension and prefer trade and economic development over conflict and arm races beside the blessing from God.

This is also why after Soekarno period, Indonesia military spending is so low and we just focus on economic development. Previous ambition to take some lands from Malaysia have been thrown into a trash bin and later in 1999 we make another concession to let go East Timor after we took them by force in 1970's.

Singapore also understand the region much deeper and they understand another power in the region will not like it which is Indonesia that will oppose the idea. Similar like Indonesia who dont like Subic and Clark naval base hosted American Navy in Philippine and Indonesia protest over US navy present in Darwin Australia.

But I talk about the war scenario where the war has already happen in SCS, in this kind of scale previous policy is likely not followed anymore. Singapore get US protection if they get invaded and now US is at war in the region. Of course Singapore will not like to host US Navy fleets since that condition will damage their relationship with China, but I guess there is some kind of points in their military treaty with US that can allow such thing to happen under emergency situation.

I doubt US just protect Singapore miltarily, give them the most modern weapon, and give land inside US soil to park Singapore Air Force without something reciprocal given to US. Singapore has participated in some US military operation by the way although more on logistic support.

I am just a old, dumb basket compared to you wiseguys but just one thing. In a eventuality where war broke out between India we would expect USA and West to also get involved. In this environment why would there be need for massive Chinese shipping along those lines?

One would expect trade to cease with the West. Are the Chinese going to try and keep their banana supplies from Africa going in return for floral Chinese made shirts to Nigeria? The Chinese would literally do another "1962" on India and launch mass attack along the McMahon Line and LAC causing the Indian Army to do a Usain Bolt down mountains and hide under their women's Sari's in Delhi.

China still needs essential mineral supplies to support their industry (including their military industry) and oil and LNG supply that currently uses Malacca Strait to reach China if war ever happen in SCS.

 

[Leishangthem]

btw ,strait of malacca isn't in Indian's control,it's in the hands of Indonesia and malaysia.India can't do anything about that against indo-malay duo's wish.

 

[Sharma Ji]

btw ,strait of malacca isn't in Indian's control,it's in the hands of Indonesia and malaysia.India can't do anything about that against indo-malay duo's wish.

who do you want to hang ?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Of course Singapore establishment will reject it since US try to make other fleet base in their soil and sea territory beside in Japan in this current US vs China phase which is still not yet blowing into a full scale war.

ASEAN nations understand that it will make the region become so tense and make it become a punching back between US and China. The reason ASEAN economy is thriving is due to the commitments of the members here to avoid any military tension and prefer trade and economic development over conflict and arm races beside the blessing from God.

This is also why after Soekarno period, Indonesia military spending is so low and we just focus on economic development. Previous ambition to take some lands from Malaysia have been thrown into a trash bin and later in 1999 we make another concession to let go East Timor after we took them by force in 1970's.

Singapore also understand the region much deeper and they understand another power in the region will not like it which is Indonesia that will oppose the idea. Similar like Indonesia who dont like Subic and Clark naval base hosted American Navy in Philippine and Indonesia protest over US navy present in Darwin Australia.

But I talk about the war scenario where the war has already happen in SCS, in this kind of scale previous policy is likely not followed anymore. Singapore get US protection if they get invaded and now US is at war in the region. Of course Singapore will not like to host US Navy fleets since that condition will damage their relationship with China, but I guess there is some kind of points in their military treaty with US that can allow such thing to happen under emergency situation.

I doubt US just protect Singapore miltarily, give them the most modern weapon, and give land inside US soil to park Singapore Air Force without something reciprocal given to US. Singapore has participated in some US military operation by the way although more on logistic support.


China still needs essential mineral supplies to support their industry (including their military industry) and oil and LNG supply that currently uses Malacca Strait to reach China if war ever happen in SCS.

Such a war would be short and sharp. China has enough indigenous oil and minerals to to cover any such war. China is not like Germany with limited indigenous spectrum of resources. The local sources are sufficient to support the Chinese war machine.

 

[Microsoft]

This is just more reason for CPEC to be expedited. Bypass Malaca and its faster to get oil/gas from ME + Access to Africa.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

In case you have weak grasp of Euyrasian geography China has vast land borders with Russian Siberia, Central Asia both region has humongous reserves of oil, gas [with belt/road connections being beefed up every year] and every other mineral you care to mention. No bananas though !!!

Include Pakistan with CPEC.

 

[Sharma Ji]

Such a war would be short and sharp. China has enough indigenous oil and minerals to to cover any such war. China is not like Germany with limited indigenous spectrum of resources. The local sources are sufficient to support the Chinese war machine.

last time this machine went to war was in Korea.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

last time this machine went to war was in Korea.

And you know what it did? Made the entire battle hardened US Army roll back over the Yalu River sending Americans into panic. It was massive US air superirity that blunted and stabiized the attack/front.

Factually speaking Vietnam 1979 was the last major tangle PLA had although it did not go well against those nutcases - the Viet who had just defeated US Army. And don't forget the 1962 clobbering they gave you.
The vast reserves of Russia, Kazak oil/gas, Central Asia and access to Pakistan are a alternative to Malacca.

 

[dbc]

Such a war would be short and sharp. China has enough indigenous oil and minerals to to cover any such war. China is not like Germany with limited indigenous spectrum of resources. The local sources are sufficient to support the Chinese war machine.

Indigenous oil and mineral? The Japanese successfully blocked all supplies to China until the US got involved in WWII. They succeeded largely because Russia was afraid of imperial Japan. No China does not produce enough oil/gas or raw materials to supply its industry and military - not today and certainly not in 1942.

A blockade of Malacca strait will not choke Chinese industry or war efforts entirely. It will increase the cost of acquiring supplies via alternate land or Pacific routes. Of course I don't think India can pull it off on its own. The extent of pain / cost that can be induced upon China largely depends on Russia and the US. Pakistan also has a small part to play, but I don't think land routes via the Himalayas can sustain the volumes necessary to fully satisfy Chinese needs.

Russia realizes its vital interest in the maintenance of Chinese resistance to Japan. From the short-term point of view, however, the lack of greater Russian cooperation, he said, is probably due to several factors. First and most important of these is Moscow’s desire to avoid any move which may irritate Japan or tend to tip the scales of Japanese policy toward an attack on Russia’s Far Eastern rear.

Historical Documents - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

 

[Nasr]

Bad thing is that CN now dont have pro VN leader like Mao who helped VN against US till dead anymore.

CN leaders, Cnese here keep saying " Mao is great, Mao is smart!" but their IQ r just simply too low to understand why Mao supported VN till he died.

Well it would be disappointing if China approaches Vietnam by installing their puppet in your country. Because I wasn't talking about that sort of an alliance between China and Vietnam. Rather, I am hoping that China seeks a genuine friendship and alliance with Vietnam, Malaysia and Bangladesh.

And it isn't like China is incapable of establishing genuine friendship and alliance with other countries. Pakistan has had the fortune to have China as a true friend and ally.

A lot can be achieved between these two great countries. Vietnam earned the respect and hearts of the oppressed countries around the world, when your people defeated the mighty american military. China too has won the hearts of many countries with its astounding accomplishments. It does not have to be animosity and war of words. It can be that both Vietnam and China establish true and lasting friendship.

Whatever and why Mao did what he did, is irrelevant now. Today we have both China and Vietnam emerge from the ashes of western hegemony. Today both countries have the golden opportunity to approach each other with confidence and build trust and exhibit genuine friendship toward each other.

Believe it or not, but this was the same case with india. China and india could've become good friends. The same too with Pakistan and india, who could've become true neighbors in peace. But when we put our differences before everything else. Then it becomes an impediment to genuine friendship, peace and alliance.