BrahMos Storage Complex Under Construction in Halwara

[kursed]

The biggest problem India faces/Pakistan has advantages of - is that currently there is ambiguity on any launches of strategic systems. Try as India might Brahmos gets qualified as a strategic system and Pakistan was able to use that threshold to roll out Shaheen systems on the evening of 27/2/2019 in response to Indians considering using Brahmos.

So if India does launch Brahmos for which there are few defenses Pakistan launches a conventional BM barrage. Problem for both countries is that the rollout of such systems is difficult to hide not just from each other but also from world powers. So the only scenario India is truly able to effectively utilize these systems is a surprise all out attack.

No build up, no warnings - just boom. Otherwise in a gradual escalation like in 2019 they are fairly useless in terms of closing an offensive and only lead to more rapid escalation including nuclear.

Nothing like that happens - it is still a very effective system in Indian hands for the parameters it was designed for.

Whatever assets was able to undertake the task required did it. Had the Su-30s gone further north to try and intercept the Jf-17 strike they would have been engaged by their JF-17 escort with PL-12s. There is no segregation of assets and whatever is provided in the media is part of a diplomatic fog requirement for the United States and Pakistan so that the US can manage its current courting of India to its needs.

JF-17s on that day flying sweep had the flankers on scope but never got clearance to engage. Mirages from the other side bugged out at the drop of a hat.

 

[Aneeq Rashid]

That is the ambiguity that also keep them from utilizing this effectively.

Who ever gets nuked first is at extreme disadvantage. Imagine if rawalpindi gets nuked. It could effect response time from Pakistan.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

The biggest problem India faces/Pakistan has advantages of - is that currently there is ambiguity on any launches of strategic systems. Try as India might Brahmos gets qualified as a strategic system and Pakistan was able to use that threshold to roll out Shaheen systems on the evening of 27/2/2019 in response to Indians considering using Brahmos.

So if India does launch Brahmos for which there are few defenses Pakistan launches a conventional BM barrage. Problem for both countries is that the rollout of such systems is difficult to hide not just from each other but also from world powers. So the only scenario India is truly able to effectively utilize these systems is a surprise all out attack.

No build up, no warnings - just boom. Otherwise in a gradual escalation like in 2019 they are fairly useless in terms of closing an offensive and only lead to more rapid escalation including nuclear.

Nothing like that happens - it is still a very effective system in Indian hands for the parameters it was designed for.

Whatever assets was able to undertake the task required did it. Had the Su-30s gone further north to try and intercept the Jf-17 strike they would have been engaged by their JF-17 escort with PL-12s. There is no segregation of assets and whatever is provided in the media is part of a diplomatic fog requirement for the United States and Pakistan so that the US can manage its current courting of India to its needs.

What are the prospects for launches from underground silos? The subterranean activity would be harder to spot. India opted to use the Brahmos bluff because Pakistan had taken aim at its military installations. Perhaps Indians were not comfortable in pitching IAF against PAF again until the glaring deficiencies that had been exposed would stand addressed, that is why they upped the ante threatening with missile strikes.

I don't think India could afford (diplomatically) to launch all-out missile strikes in nuclearised South Asia post a future Pulawama-esque attack. If it does, it would target select installations of PA/PAF. Retaliation would be certain from Pakistan given its missile stockpiles would be intact.

What do you have in mind when you say an all-out boom? Any attack against installations holding strategic delivery systems would immediately force use it or lose it posture on Pakistani strategic forces. I hope we have planned for this eventuality and the delivery systems are spread all over the country so the enemy cannot escape a counter strike which is necessary to maintain deterrence vis a vis surprise strikes.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

There is nothing China can do other than push India into the arms of USA
Neither China nor Pakistan is going to fight a two front war with India and even limited American air power

Meray khyal meh, 27 February 2019 confirmed how darpoke India is or at least it has become.

As soon as Pakistan learnt India was preparing missile attack on Pakistan, Pakistan made it clear to everyone that Pakistan will launch 3 missiles for each Indian missile.

The Americans, the Russians and Chinese didn't pressurise Pakistan but made it very, very clear to India that you are on your own.

It was such a blunder on India's part that it didn't foresee such response from the big three powers, all due to India's over-confidence in its global standing and out of hubris.

Three-years on, India is still panic buying everything out of fear of an overwhelming Pakistani response that will result in complete obliteration of India.

Pakistan need hypersonic missile that can cover entire land mass of India in same time similar to time it will take Indian Brahmos to cover narrow Pakistan. Brahmos will not give much reaction time to Pakistan.

It takes longer for Indian missiles to reach Pakistan than Pakistani missiles hitting India due to the orbit of the Earth.

 

[SQ8]

What are the prospects for launches from underground silos? The subterranean activity would be harder to spot. India opted to use the Brahmos bluff because Pakistan had taken aim at its military installations. Perhaps Indians were not comfortable in pitching IAF against PAF again until the glaring deficiencies that had been exposed would stand addressed, that is why they upped the ante threatening with missile strikes.

I don't think India could afford (diplomatically) to launch all-out missile strikes in nuclearised South Asia post a future Pulawama-esque attack. If it does, it would target select installations of PA/PAF. Retaliation would be certain from Pakistan given its missile stockpiles would be intact.

What do you have in mind when you say an all-out boom? Any attack against installations holding strategic delivery systems would immediately force use it or lose it posture on Pakistani strategic forces. I hope we have planned for this eventuality and the delivery systems are spread all over the country so the enemy cannot escape a counter strike which is necessary to maintain deterrence vis a vis surprise strikes.

They have built a few for Prithvis and an experimental one for the Shaurya (or just a test site) near the northern border but wont do so for the Brahmos because its strength lies in its shoot & scoot capability to maximize the multiple directions it can fire from.

However, its when they move out of their storage facilities the majority of whose lists are both exchanged and also discovered by some of the highest intelligence efforts when you can call that bluff right there and then.

All out attack means key Pakistani non-nuclear related strategic sites incl C4I nodes, radars, airfield facilities and other command structures.

Who ever gets nuked first is at extreme disadvantage. Imagine if rawalpindi gets nuked. It could effect response time from Pakistan.

Not really - there are redundant response doctrines that all units know in case certain measures happen. India is not going to attack one or two sites with nuclear weapons and will either go all out strike or nothing. If the try with one city as soon as confirmation occurs there are two weapons heading for dehli and an Indian nuclear base. They can attack with 3 and Pakistan will send 5 and so on.

Except Allah, nothing - No ABM, no Energy based Area defense or otherwise can save India from experiencing utter devastation in 300+ targets.
The loss of life, the loss of infrastructure and natural environment/resources(fresh water sources, key agro areas) will make death seem like a better option for whoever remains in India. Sure, Pakistanis will face the same but because of the more dense population concentration in the major cities along with having 1/5th the population there is going to be quicker demises in Pakistan and few remaining after the initial month to suffer. Meanwhile, the 1.2 billion in India will lose a lot more and suffer a LOT more.
Moreover, India and Pakistan are NOT first world nations like the US or even USSR with detailed plans for population rehabilitation and rebuilding. The United States can lose all its urban areas and still have plenty of land available for a somewhat livable existence - India has land but the careful selection of targets means that natural resources to make that land survivable by more than a few hundred thousand will be irradiated and inhospitable.

Finally, the impact of such a conflict doesn't just impact the two countries - All the immediate neighbors especially Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal moving outwards to Far east and upwards to Central Asia and to a degree the middle east will be severely impacted. All of these countries will protect their interests too of not wanting such a holocaust to occur.

Hence, the deterrent and the focus on 5th gen socio-economic warfare by India.

 

[HRK]

How would Pakistan know that a missile coming towards Pakistan is nuclear tipped or not?

This is exactly what IK in his speech in Parliament mention .... and this is what compels Fanatics Indian in the Government and Defence forces of India act little bit rational

 

[IceCold]

There is nothing China can do other than push India into the arms of USA
Neither China nor Pakistan is going to fight a two front war with India and even limited American air power

Its india that dreams of two front war with China and Pakistan, not the other way round.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Ambala is housing the S-400 to provide cover for these facilities as well. India is no longer looking for surgical strikes but a larger scale all out campaign to diminish Pakistan military conventional capability to a point where the only option remains nuclear and that can be used as a gambit to pressurize and coerce Pakistan in collusion with other powers to either turn into Bangladesh or at the least give up on most major issues.

Well cant Pakistan match this by building bases of Babur and other SRBMs with cover from HQ9Bs?
Maybe PA needs to keep as many critical assets as much mobile as possible, and non mobile assets need to be covered by CIWS and LRSAMs ?

 

[Pak Nationalist]

They have built a few for Prithvis and an experimental one for the Shaurya (or just a test site) near the northern border but wont do so for the Brahmos because its strength lies in its shoot & scoot capability to maximize the multiple directions it can fire from.

However, its when they move out of their storage facilities the majority of whose lists are both exchanged and also discovered by some of the highest intelligence efforts when you can call that bluff right there and then.

All out attack means key Pakistani non-nuclear related strategic sites incl C4I nodes, radars, airfield facilities and other command structures.

Not really - there are redundant response doctrines that all units know in case certain measures happen. India is not going to attack one or two sites with nuclear weapons and will either go all out strike or nothing. If the try with one city as soon as confirmation occurs there are two weapons heading for dehli and an Indian nuclear base. They can attack with 3 and Pakistan will send 5 and so on.

Except Allah, nothing - No ABM, no Energy based Area defense or otherwise can save India from experiencing utter devastation in 300+ targets.
The loss of life, the loss of infrastructure and natural environment/resources(fresh water sources, key agro areas) will make death seem like a better option for whoever remains in India. Sure, Pakistanis will face the same but because of the more dense population concentration in the major cities along with having 1/5th the population there is going to be quicker demises in Pakistan and few remaining after the initial month to suffer. Meanwhile, the 1.2 billion in India will lose a lot more and suffer a LOT more.
Moreover, India and Pakistan are NOT first world nations like the US or even USSR with detailed plans for population rehabilitation and rebuilding. The United States can lose all its urban areas and still have plenty of land available for a somewhat livable existence - India has land but the careful selection of targets means that natural resources to make that land survivable by more than a few hundred thousand will be irradiated and inhospitable.

Finally, the impact of such a conflict doesn't just impact the two countries - All the immediate neighbors especially Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal moving outwards to Far east and upwards to Central Asia and to a degree the middle east will be severely impacted. All of these countries will protect their interests too of not wanting such a holocaust to occur.

Hence, the deterrent and the focus on 5th gen socio-economic warfare by India.

They are trying to operationalize subsonic Pralay as a nonstrategic CM that is built only to carry conventional warheads as well. What you are suggesting sounds like a decapitation strike minus the use of nukes. Pakistani nuclear doctrine is explicit in stating that any such action would ensure nuclear retaliation from this side. Are Indians about to call that "bluff" as well?

 

[SQ8]

They are trying to operationalize subsonic Pralay as a nonstrategic CM that is built only to carry conventional warheads as well. What you are suggesting sounds like a decapitation strike minus the use of nukes. Pakistani nuclear doctrine is explicit in its statement that any such action would ensure nuclear retaliation from this side. Are Indians about to call that "bluff" as well?

That is the worry with the current regime in power there

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Distance from say Lahore to Halwara is less than 150 Km.....would like to see how the Indian defences would cope with even the likes of Fatah-1 guided rocket system.


View attachment 807153
140 km
Distance from Wagah to Halwara

https://twitter.com/x/status/1347124088301563905

In all likelihood, India will have forward-deployed those BrahMos missiles in the lead-up to a conflict. They won't wait for the start of hostilities to get things moving. For what you're suggesting to work, Pakistan would have to strike first before there's any sense of conflict happening. In other words, we would have to be the aggressor. This is completely out of what our decision-makers want (i.e. to de-escalate tension and only respond to aggression).

If anything, the focus isn't on neutralizing the BrahMos, but rather, inflicting the same type of damage India is aiming to level on Pakistan.

So, to your point re: Fatah-1, the Army will station those in proximity to its designated targets (such as radar or GBAD assets, fuel stores, hangars, etc). However, I think the bigger point here is for Pakistan to invest in large supersonic (and in the future hypersonic) cruising missile stocks plus expanding the Babur / Harbah inventory. Perhaps even look into developing a GL-SDB-type solution that pairs Fatah-1 to a 113 kg gliding-PGB so that the Army can carry out precision air-strike-type attacks.

Ideally, Pakistan's response mechanism would be disproportionately large relative to its size and that of India's. So, we would aim for a 1:1 match-up in cruise missile stocks of every type, for example. However, we can't bankroll that type of expansion, nor do we have the innate industrial base to support it indigenously. Say "hello" to decades of economic and developmental neglect biting us in the rear.

 

[JamD]

In all likelihood, India will have forward-deployed those BrahMos missiles in the lead-up to a conflict. They won't wait for the start of hostilities to get things moving. For what you're suggesting to work, Pakistan would have to strike first before there's any sense of conflict happening. In other words, we would have to be the aggressor. This is completely out of what our decision-makers want (i.e. to de-escalate tension and only respond to aggression).

If anything, the focus isn't on neutralizing the BrahMos, but rather, inflicting the same type of damage India is aiming to level on Pakistan.

So, to your point re: Fatah-1, the Army will station those in proximity to its designated targets (such as radar or GBAD assets, fuel stores, hangars, etc). However, I think the bigger point here is for Pakistan to invest in large supersonic (and in the future hypersonic) cruising missile stocks plus expanding the Babur / Harbah inventory. Perhaps even look into developing a GL-SDB-type solution that pairs Fatah-1 to a 113 kg gliding-PGB so that the Army can carry out precision air-strike-type attacks.

Ideally, Pakistan's response mechanism would be disproportionately large relative to its size and that of India's. So, we would aim for a 1:1 match-up in cruise missile stocks of every type, for example. However, we can't bankroll that type of expansion, nor do we have the innate industrial base to support it indigenously. Say "hello" to decades of economic and developmental neglect biting us in the rear.

If I were a planner I would prefer the newly inducted UCAV strike option since it has no possibility of being misconstrued as a nuclear strike (unlike CMs that we have stated can carry nuclear warheads).

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

If I were a planner I would prefer the newly inducted UCAV strike option since it has no possibility of being misconstrued as a nuclear strike (unlike CMs that we have stated can carry nuclear warheads).

Yep. Ideally, that's where we ought to head. We'd still be bottlenecked for RPV uplinks (our SATCOM can only handle so many), so delivering some level of automation is key. IIRC the TB2 has a feature where you can pre-plan its flight. You can basically use them as semi-autonomous munitions. With time, you'd evolve this into 3-5-ton jet-powered UCAVs equipped with more autonomous flight/operations capabilities. The ability to fly 100+ of this simultaneously would be a huge conventional deterrence capability.

 

[Windjammer]

In all likelihood, India will have forward-deployed those BrahMos missiles in the lead-up to a conflict. They won't wait for the start of hostilities to get things moving. For what you're suggesting to work, Pakistan would have to strike first before there's any sense of conflict happening. In other words, we would have to be the aggressor. This is completely out of what our decision-makers want (i.e. to de-escalate tension and only respond to aggression).

If anything, the focus isn't on neutralizing the BrahMos, but rather, inflicting the same type of damage India is aiming to level on Pakistan.

So, to your point re: Fatah-1, the Army will station those in proximity to its designated targets (such as radar or GBAD assets, fuel stores, hangars, etc). However, I think the bigger point here is for Pakistan to invest in large supersonic (and in the future hypersonic) cruising missile stocks plus expanding the Babur / Harbah inventory. Perhaps even look into developing a GL-SDB-type solution that pairs Fatah-1 to a 113 kg gliding-PGB so that the Army can carry out precision air-strike-type attacks.

Ideally, Pakistan's response mechanism would be disproportionately large relative to its size and that of India's. So, we would aim for a 1:1 match-up in cruise missile stocks of every type, for example. However, we can't bankroll that type of expansion, nor do we have the innate industrial base to support it indigenously. Say "hello" to decades of economic and developmental neglect biting us in the rear.

Sir, I'm no where as qualified as you in these matters and scenarios, my idea or rather i was trying to imply was that in future conflict, if and when India decides to resort to using Brahmos capability, thus Pakistan has the option of scorch earth reply with all it's conventional capabilities. Halwara facility for example, India will not exactly use all it's arsenal stationed there, neither the facility become redundant after firing off some rounds. This is where Pakistani TEL system come into their own advantage and play. The likes of say Babur and Ra'had will have all the targets to engage at will.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Sir, I'm no where as qualified as you in these matters and scenarios, my idea or rather i was trying to imply was that in future conflict, if and when India decides to resort to using Brahmos capability, thus Pakistan has the option of scorch earth reply with all it's conventional capabilities. Halwara facility for example, India will not exactly use all it's arsenal stationed there, neither the facility become redundant after firing off some rounds. This is where Pakistani TEL system come into their own advantage and play. The likes of say Babur and Ra'had will have all the targets to engage at will.

We need to develop the same insecure mindset of the Indians to be able to fight them. So, I would never assume they wouldn't use all of their stocks as soon as possible. Like @SQ8 said, India's planners want to decimate us as rapidly as possible. Therefore, Pakistan must fight on those terms. Basically, if India looks like it's intending to conventionally end a war within hours of it starting, Pakistan must match that, if not exceed it. Unfortunately, our fiscal capacity and industrial infrastructure does not allow for that parity.