Have you looked at successful and disastrous counterinsurgency history.
Rule # 1: no permanent collective punishment; such as mass killings. Temporary travel and trade embargoes can work for a time.
Alienating the public is what you hope the miscreants do, not the counter-insurgent forces.
You are advocating a France in Algeria strategy, when you need something more akin to the smart parts of the British in Malaya strategy.
Don’t do this
Study what worked in this.
Always remember, they’re our our citizens and we can’t use the full tactics of foreign colonizers, they need to be studied and only applied selectively and without extrajudicial means.
in the end it is in Pakistan’s interest to have the Afghans facilitate our interests, not be the enabling environment of continuous problems. One possible solution, is beating the TTP back over to the Afghan side of the border, and preventing them and their families from ever returning to Pakistan. If we can host millions of Afghans in Pakistan, the Afghan Talib can put the TTP under some kind of open air house arrest. In the mean time, we heavily fortify our border and require anyone wanting to cross to go through proper channels. If the TTP or their family try to cross they will be detected and denied entry.
If you wondering why I advocate the border fortification model, if you look at Roman fortifications with trade posts on the Rhine and in Northern England/Scotland, they were the model that succeeded for centuries in a self-sustaining manner.
Good Lessons from the two video summarized
1. Don’t make any political parties operating within the constitution illegal as they are pressure relief mechanism. This also broadens the support the government. Could have when trying to build as much local support for a final settlement to hostilities and getting the local people to go along with it.
2. Use intelligence to detect, monitor and interdict insurgents and their logistics tail
3. Protect local allies and critical infrastructure and mining resources. Incentivize the local populace (medical and food aid disproportionately higher than a regular area to deal with the extra burden the state is placing on the local people for their troubles) to help protect these people and assets. Hoping this local populace would be a source of intelligence and potential troops for the fight. Also, making sure this population’s governance institutions are working quickly and fairly; so they see the system they are fighting for providing good governance and services.
4. Disrupt insurgent funding and arms resupply
5. depopulating areas and clearing vegetation along logistical routes make detecting insurgent logistics easier
6. Equipping and paying local troops adequately to Jee morale high and casualties to a minimum, so troops are motivated to keep the pressure on the enemy.
7. Helicopter assault troops to quickly intercept miscreants.
8. Detecting (in a manner even if the public doesn’t report it) any food stolen from the public to track any food the insurgents maybe taking to keep themselves fed. Letting the elements degrade the insurgents ability or live off the land.
9. Providing enough resources and jobs and educational opportunities (including facilitating students getting into good schools in the rest of the country and even going abroad to maximize their utility to their region, if they merit it based on merit) in the region to provide an alternative “Career path” for the youth.
10. Making sure local and provincial governance is as corruption and nepotism free as possible, so that young people with no connections can see a pathway, if they play by the rules, to earn a way into a good living and live a prosperous life.
11. Make any investment go to any area a win-win for the local people (dominant tribe and other people in the area) and the state. Shared risk and shared reward. Don’t antagonize local land owners, and offering to invest in their ventures for a share of the profits instead of buying local land or setting up wholly government owned projects/industries in their area. Do “joint venture” with the locals; their “equity” and the state’s capital.
12. don’t allow other countries from carrying out military operations (I.e. drone strikes) or even operating in your territory as it undermines the authority of the state and its monopoly on legitimate use of force.
13. Identifying any international supporters of the miscreants and using lawfare and diplomacy with the host country to combat their ability to aid the miscreants groups in your country.
14. Minimize the number of army troops, especially troops from outside the province to operate in the province, and try to do all operations with provincial police, preferably with police as local to the area of operation as possible, as not to create any perception amongst the people that could unknowingly cause alienation. Don’t make the population feel like they are under siege, but rather their local police is strong enough (and had intelligence means) to handle any attacker and push back hard; deterrence. This will require rebuilding local police stations to look normal on the outside but be strong as forts on the inside of their compounds.
15. No mass reprisals (don’t galvanize Afghans across the border or Afghans (as well as any Pakistani) residing in other parts of Pakistan to support the insurgents, financially or physically), but identifying all responsible kingpins and hunting them down and putting them in front of a court to show the rule of law will be upheld.
16. Having a police QRF force (but able to call in army attack helicopters) ready to respond to an attack ASAP and wiping out attackers quickly and methodically during a battle, with forensic evidence used to follow back killed miscreants to their regions and taking legal action against their direct supporters.
17. Don’t give the perception any dramatic change of governmental structure or laws are going or be negotiated, don’t even hypothetically in any back channel negotiations or through intermediaries. Stick to the constitution of the state, so all parties know salami slicing won’t work.
17. Working to minimize any discrimination people from these regions have in the rest of the country. Generally working on minimizing discrimination in the country and creating a merit based system, everywhere in the country. Opening a percentage of jobs to non-locals everywhere in the country, so opportunities to work in other areas are always possible as well as non-locals able to come to the locals areas to share their knowledge and skills.
18. Don’t kill the most incompetent or divisive leaders of the insurgents. Dot kill the moderates, Let them keep the miscreant organization unstable from the inside and eventually more likely to negotiate a surrender or exile to another country.
19. Built up the economy and government services/jobs/education so the insurgents can’t wear down the government in a war of attrition.
20. Don’t alienate the local police, whose role is central to long term to maintaining any gains.
21. Don’t allow local allies or police to form paramilitaries, to take things into their own hands in case of a major attack. Only allow the chain of command to have the legal authority to use force as per the constitution and the law.
22. don’t allow a ceasefire that only allows the insurgents to regroup and rearm. Only allow a censure if the insurgent give up at least some of the capabilities.
23. Don’t allow an environment to persist during the COIN operation in which the best and the brightest want to leave the region if not the country. Their presence will be necessary to quickly rebuild ASAP after the miscreants have been pushed back if jot neutralized.
24. Don’t allow the insurgents from operating a shadow government, such as courts, and undermining the rule of the principal and local governments.
