A three tier attack capability?

[Armstrong]

Have you ever thought of writing ? Some of the analysis in newspapers that pass for 'informed opinion' seems like overly clichéd, self-righteous literary tantrums !

Its always nice to read someone who's analysis doesn't reek of 'jingoism' and is written in simple enough terms for someone like us - non technical people - to understand and appreciate it as being well argued.

True, but every nation faces these concerns, so I'm not that willing to give Pakistan a pass. All nations, irrespective of their economic or political situation has to take their military seriously. If they don't we end up with the same scenarios that are now being seen around the world. Russia, thanks to misguided acquisitions policies is once again spending itself into oblivion, the US has propped up the LCS, Legend-class cutter, and other underwhelming programs because it doesn't have an alternative, India can't seem to buy a stick of gum without red tape getting in the way, the UK is slashing its budget at a time when trans-regional strife (such as in Africa and the Middle-East) means it needs a larger budget to better tackle political, military and humanitarian concerns, this is a problem for everyone, and to be honest, the whole "developing nation" thing strikes me as an excuse.

If you're a developing nation you should be developing quality habits to avoid the pitfalls that have befallen developed nations. Not using your underdevelopment as an excuse to avoid reforms.

If there is urgency, the situation will improve. Perhaps a crisis is what Pakistan needs to get the anchors out of its pants and press forwards with greater economic, political and military reforms... or maybe Pakistan will break?

No...no I wasn't referring to the 'developing nation' thing to rationalize away our failures but simply trying to point out that just as it took most countries in the rest of the world (barring the odd exception) to evolve into successful nations...its going to take us time and we can't just metamorph into a developed country with proper structures of governance without going through the same teething problems (and then some) that other countries did.

Our problem is compounded many times by the premature death of Our Father - Muhammad Ali Jinnah - just a year after Pakistan's creation. He was the only sincere politician that we've ever had in a long...long time; after his death its been a free for all for everyone who's who of Pakistan and our leaders have ripped us off every time they could. The Indians were lucky in that regard that Mr.Nehru and other leaders of the Congress Party - the party that won their freedom, survived for a decade or more after India's creation.

Unfortunately still in a country where as much as 45% of your people are living in multi-dimensional poverty and another 60% or so are literate (not educated) you can't really bank on popular change either so its taken us much longer than it should've to get our acts together and actually start realizing the dreams that were dreamt when we got Pakistan.

Fortunately for us the baptism of the past and current decade and more that we've gone through and the ripening restlessness amongst the youth of Pakistan (of whom are the majority of our population) is definitely going to become a catalyst for change. In fact it already has and between some tangible successes and some false dawns we're slowly but surely moving forward.

Definitely! From the outside, it does seem that Pakistan is doing a lot of the things I mentioned, but what I'm wondering is whether they are part of a larger strategy, or just a series of seemingly inter-connected options, that are in reality being conducted separately? The latter is a problem, a targeted focus that's part of a greater plan can help Pakistan further refine each option and tailor its effectiveness.

I can't answer this question though, I'm not too familiar with Pakistan's strategies.

We don't have a lot of transparency in Pakistan so I don't know whether we're moving forward as part of a well thought out larger strategy or whether this is all haphazard.

I think its probably somewhere in the middle.

I'm not sure how much of a deterrent you'd be though.

You doubt me ?

Never underestimate the power of the Butt !

 

[thrilainmanila]

I think there was a very good reason why PA went with the AH-1Zs there combat proven, I doubt the PA will buy 50 or so Z-10s just like the J-10 its completely unproven in combat, You'd be foolish to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a unknown quantity when you can buy something which is trailed and tested and delivers great results.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

I see. Well, for military was grouping types of attack helicopter use varies from configurations roles depending on threat environment rather than platform models.

Firstly, there are pros and cons of acquiring different platforms. Having two-three or more types of rotary-wing platforms for air assault can result with logistic nightmares depending on user's resources and A4* capabilities. I don't know the situation and availability of spares in Pakistani logistics but I can't say I'd support this idea cost wise if I had limited budget.

Tiering into groups by general military doctrines mostly depends on the use of the aircraft, roles, configuration, threat environment,...etc. So surprisingly, it actually doesn't really matter that much whether you are buying from US, China or Turkey unless there's vast technical differences and type, ex: AH-64 and AH-1W.

As it is counter insurgency we are talking about. Use of armed rotary wing against assymetric threats is roughly classified into:

1- Air Assault
2- Supporting Ground Operations
3- QRF*
4- CAS
5- Reconnaissance
6- Utility Support/Group Escort


Tiering and acquiring such aircraft is based on roles above. These missions can easily be conducted by a single type of reliable platform for Pakistan's case if armed well. You can get Chinese missiles, also last time I heard PA was getting Mızrak-U/O (UMTAS). I don't have deep insight on army aviation (hopefully will so) but grouping into tiers is a matter of configurations (both armaments and sensors) and technical requirements and the task types listed above.

AC-130 is a different story. China probably has such a program but there's also a gunship project like Spectre is under development/testing phase under the name GÖREN-2. Hope that you guys could find the best solution against the enemies of the nation.

A4: The term used to refer Air Logistics
QRF: Quick Reaction Force

I doubt PA will get mizrak missiles .. They already have the barq (Air launched laser guided missile) .. Unless Turkey offers a man portable fire n forget weapon... They will most likely go for chinese options.

 

[Quwa]

* Pakistan asked the US to sell the AC-130 Spooky Gunship for COIN operations which for whatever reason was rejected by the US.

* Pakistan operates 50 odd frames of AH-1F/S Cobras which are depleting fast due to the operational stresses coped during last ten years of war, hence a replacement is due.

* After T-129 deal stalled due to US refusing to sell engines, the AH-1Z Viper was cleared for sale to Pakistan and it seems to be underway.

* Pakistan also got 3 Z-10 Thunderbolt helicopters from China for test and evaluation in the battlefield.

* Pakistan placed an order for an initial batch of 4 Mi-35 Assault Helicopters with a bigger order expected to be placed later.

This indicates a few things.

* Cobras might be replaced by 15 Zulus plus remaining units to be replaced by Z-10s. Some sources also cite the role attack helicopters have to play in a Cold Start like situation with India acquiring AH-64D followed by a large number of cheaper locally built platforms like LCH, it becomes cruicial for Pakistan to add attack helicopters in numbers.

They also stated that China is willing to commit to generous offer including the assembly of more than 50 Thunderbolts and local manufacturing of spares.

* More than 20 Mi-35s can be bought and will be used for Special Operations.

So is it possible that Pakistan might be headed for a 3 tier attack capability?

Tier-1: AH-1Z VIPER (15)
Tier-2: Z-10 Thunderbolt (40-50)

Total - Up to 70 with all Cobras replaced eventually and the fleet strengthened with 15-20 extra units to meet evolving threats?

Tier-3: Mi-35M Hind-E (20)

Assault Helicopter to negotiate asymmetric threats of various nature.

Opinions?

@Oscar @Irfan Baloch @Xeric @Icarus @Hyperion

I think the AH-1Z fleet will see increases, but at an incremental rate. I don't see it replacing the current Cobras 1:1, but it doesn't need to, it is a much more capable platform. I think a total of 30 AH-1Z by the early 2020s is a reasonable projection.

The WZ-10 is a tougher matter, but I believe the Army is looking to hedge against the Viper and build its India-focused attack element around the WZ-10. That said, it should go for a high amount over the long-term. A conflict with India will be ridden with losses, especially from high intensity encounters. IMHO 70-90 WZ-10s would be appropriate, especially if one wants to scale for local assembly and spare-parts manufacturing.

As for the subtopic about Pakistan's lack of development. Honestly, cutting back defence expenditure isn't the solution. The solution is for a political leadership that is invested in the country's progress and is willing to build up the real economy, I.e. produce jobs, new products, etc. That takes leadership that spends its time on governing, not singing praises about IMF and looting the nation, or leaving it to decay via neglect. In short, steering Pakistan to success will take systemic changes, for without them, the gains one might make from cutting back defence will be wasted in other ways.

 

[Viper0011.]

Acquiring 3 types of attack helicopters does not indicate a 3 tier capability. one must understand each chopper has certain characteristics that allow it to do a task another chopper cant do. example the mil 35 can support ground troops and also deploy 8 fully kitted troops to the ground as well, something the z10 and the viper cant do. with the vipers i feel due to them being extremely advanced i cant imagine them being used for militants. they will be based up north towards the eastern borders.

You need to read the above posts in details to see the actual 3-tier strategy.....it's not uncommon to have 3 different types of choppers by the way, usually, countries have an attack, a transport and a basic / intermediate heli for various need. Add a 4th Naval operation's focus heli too. Pakistan isn't dong anything out of the ordinary. In fact, getting Z-10 TOT would help her save billion over the long run and they can customize to mimic Viper's capabilities as that's their heli of choice. Over the long run, Vipers will be received and will be used as an additional assets, similar to the F-16's or other top end jets they might get, but the JFT remains the main workhorse.

[/QUOTE] i love how Pakistan gets good stuff and then says it going to use them terrorists. How are they going to use 500 aim-120c against militants? [/QUOTE]

India gets a lot of better stuff than Pakistan under the kicking dust and screaming of "we need more weapons due to a threat of a two front war". The reality is, India is building her numbers more to power project on other countries. India (even with all the talk), doesn't consider and doesn't want the Chinese to be a threat. If the US wasn't supporting the Indian economy to the extent she has been, and Pakistan wasn't in between, India and China would've signed a no war pact and an open trade pact a LONG time ago. And it will happen, just watch. India won't show interest in it as long as the Americans are helping their economy, the second the Chinese grow more trade, India will switch roles. Nothing anyone can do.
So everyone gets good stuff, some by making a country a "boogeyman" and some by just asking for it for dual use!!!

 

[Blue Marlin]

3-tier strategy.....it's not uncommon to have 3 different types of choppers by the way, usually, countries have an attack, a transport and a basic / intermediate heli for various need.

thats sort of obvious. i meant the 3 choppers mentioned mil35, z10 and the viper has its speciality and having them used in a tier capability is flawed as one chopper have have a capability that the other one may not have.

Add a 4th Naval operation's focus heli too. Pakistan isn't dong anything out of the ordinary. In fact, getting Z-10 TOT would help her save billion over the long run and they can customize to mimic Viper's capabilities as that's their heli of choice. Over the long run, Vipers will be received and will be used as an additional assets, similar to the F-16's or other top end jets they might get, but the JFT remains the main workhorse.

agreed! pakistan needs to focus on attaining tot with the z10 and should look at the viper as a template to of capability. also looking at the t129 for attaining some of it design concepts would be golden. turkey helping pakistan with tot of some some t129 components will not be problem. the key point of this is self sufficiency.

India gets a lot of better stuff than Pakistan under the kicking dust and screaming of "we need more weapons due to a threat of a two front war". The reality is, India is building her numbers more to power project on other countries. India (even with all the talk), doesn't consider and doesn't want the Chinese to be a threat. If the US wasn't supporting the Indian economy to the extent she has been, and Pakistan wasn't in between, India and China would've signed a no war pact and an open trade pact a LONG time ago. And it will happen, just watch. India won't show interest in it as long as the Americans are helping their economy, the second the Chinese grow more trade, India will switch roles. Nothing anyone can do.
So everyone gets good stuff, some by making a country a "boogeyman" and some by just asking for it for dual use!!!

what you say makes sense. but its too late indias transition in to leaning over to the US and Europe is growing too fast. modi is not going to stop just because china is increasing trade with them. china and the Us are the largest trading partners. why not sign a war pact? pakistan foresaw that in order to not be left behind it must side with china. china and pakistan relationship is too strong. china's trade with Pakistan is $12 billion whilst india's trade with china is $100 billion. why not sign a war pact now? and why did they invest $46 billion in Pakistan and not india? india will only be a trade partners not defence partners. india's turn towards the the US and Europe and it allies will eventually come at a cost in the very long term, for now it doing wonders for them.

 

[fatman17]

Turkey has offered to upgrade Pakistan's AH1S/F fleet and I personally think the army will get some frames upgraded. Cannot just retire the entire fleet of nearly 50 armed helos. In any case it will be difficult to replace all these helos in one go.
Yes additional Mi35Ms will be purchased but l am a bit skeptical about the Z10. We haven't heard anything about the 3 Z10s delivered. Some sources say that the evaluation hasn't even started as army aviation is too busy with Zarb-e-Azb ops. Additional AH1Zs will also be purchased but will take time.

 

[HRK]

Turkey has offered to upgrade Pakistan's AH1S/F fleet and I personally think the army will get some frames upgraded. Cannot just retire the entire fleet of nearly 50 armed helos. In any case it will be difficult to replace all these helos in one go.
Yes additional Mi35Ms will be purchased but l am a bit skeptical about the Z10. We haven't heard anything about the 3 Z10s delivered. Some sources say that the evaluation hasn't even started as army aviation is too busy with Zarb-e-Azb ops. Additional AH1Zs will also be purchased but will take time.

If I am not mistaken these upgrades are limited to Avionics only no option is available regarding Helicopter fuselage ....
somehow if we can manage to arrange any gradation package for our Cobra fleet similar to F-16 MLU which can bring both increase of useful life by structure strengthening + upgrade its electronics will be the best coast effective option for PAA gunship operations, by this way we can accumulate the figures of our gunship hellis upto 75 (60 AH-1S/F+ 15 AH-1Z= 75)

 

[fatman17]

If I am not mistaken these upgrades are limited to Avionics only no option is available regarding Helicopter fuselage ....
somehow if we can manage to arrange any gradation package for our Cobra fleet similar to F-16 MLU which can bring both increase of useful life by structure strengthening + upgrade its electronics will be the best coast effective option for PAA gunship operations, by this way we can accumulate the figures of our gunship hellis upto 75 (60 AH-1S/F+ 15 AH-1Z= 75)

Includes avionics, uprating of powerplant and gatling gun to AH1W standard.

 

[araz]

Good analysis, but I believe PD will increase the number of Zulus, they will have to as 15 are not enough. PD will have to acquire at least 50 more of Zulus. Also MI35 E number is not enough but as various articles suggests that PD will acquire at least 20-30 of MI35 E which is a good news for our Special forces. If WZ10 pass the battlefield test with flying numbers then surely PD will go for WZ10 as China will & is offering them with good package, possibly with ToT.

For future of PD's MI17, PD might replace them with WZ20 if they get inducted in PLA, as PD's MI17 are giving bad results like crashes which happened in recent times.

I think 50 Zulus are expensive and perhaps may not be approved. PAA will most likely get 15 more if allowed to do so. The number being touted for MI35 is 20 ands it seems reasonable. Unless Z10 is a miserable failure we will use it in numbers as our work horse and we will probably have 40-50 platforms. A total of 80 should see us through . There have been mutterings of Cobra s continuing but with the beating they have taken I dont know for how long.
Araz

This is a once in a generation acquisition so it is going to be expensive. Pakistan has the option to join the Z-20 helicopter development to produce them at home for replacement of Mi-17 and other copters in next 20 years.

Someone was mentioning PAA looking at Z18and Z20 for replacement . I dont know how viable that is. The likelihood is that the MI17attritions will be replaced.
Araz

 

[Quwa]

If PAA ge

I think 50 Zulus are expensive and perhaps may not be approved. PAA will most likely get 15 more if allowed to do so. The number being touted for MI35 is 20 ands it seems reasonable. Unless Z10 is a miserable failure we will use it in numbers as our work horse and we will probably have 40-50 platforms. A total of 80 should see us through . There have been mutterings of Cobra s continuing but with the beating they have taken I dont know for how long.
Araz


Someone was mentioning PAA looking at Z18and Z20 for replacement . I dont know how viable that is. The likelihood is that the MI17attritions will be replaced.
Araz

if PAA gets Z-20, then it wouldn't be for replacing Mi-171, but replacing the Puma, older Hueys, etc. The Mi-171 can carry more troops, but I suspect Z-20 would be preferred as a more all round utility chopper, especially if it is faster than the newer Hip.

 

[My-Analogous]

I think if we can get a platform like AC-130, it would be a great boost for COIN ops in the long run as this fight is still going to go for many years to come.

And as for attack helicopters a force of 70-80 helis may be enough, but with short of funds and limited budget maintaining a big fleet for offensive missions or defensive missions may not be possible. What we can do for shutting the cold start kind of ops or any armor push, invest in HJ-12 kind of ATGMs. Field it in numbers with infantry soldiers, who will have a better chance to stop these armor offensives. Also get NLOS missile kind of systems, AFT-10 / CM-501 are the kind of missiles which should be inducted. They are cheap, can be fielded in thousands and with Chinese assistance can be produced locally thus bringing its cost down.

Do remember our eastern neighbors have mobile SAM systems too which may be covering their armor formations, thus attack helicopters may be at great risk to them, so have a decent affordable attack helicopter fleet and supplement with a very decent short range and long range ATGM systems.

We don't need AC-130 and best possible for this role is this baby

Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt

This is cheaper, reliable and bang on target

 

[haviZsultan]

Can't we end our dependence on the US? I mean are we even capable of doing it or in technical terms and hubris its impossible. Because China has much to sell as well and they have pushed US forces in a war a long time ago and I believe there is no reason to suggest they can't now. So why are we so inclined to buy from the US despite traitorous behavior like the Presler Amendment when we are not needed in their wars. What happens when they don't need us. Won't they abandon us again?

I think it would be useful for us to focus on China. They have much to offer and no demands. US too has much to offer, possibly the best technology but there are many strings attached.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

We don't need AC-130 and best possible for this role is this baby

Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt

This is cheaper, reliable and bang on target

A-10s were offered to Pak in the past...

These are great jets but not in production anymore... Most of them retired and some upgraded by US for their Marines... These would be good for stopgap but useless in the long run...


...


For COIN operations.... Our CN 235s can be turned into light gunships like the Jordanians CN's;

Pak Navy operates 4 CN's;

 

[Neptune]

Guys one thing I noticed.

I checked wikipedia (yeah I know it's not really reliable but) I couldn't see a proper list of PAA equipment.

So two questions for local experts.

1- Which platforms are in FOC, in which quantity and specif variants?

2- inventory of AGMs suitable for assymetric warfare?

@fatman17 @Irfan Baloch @Horus @araz others..