So I do not understand based on all publicly available evidence, what are Indians happy about. If anything they should be kicking their Air Force Chief.
Even if we are brutally strict this how the score would stand for both Air Forces:
26th Feb:
i) IAF strikes: Shallow Airspace Violation of 12 Mirages only 4-5 bombs released. All missed target [1][2]
ii) PAF Response: Exact details not known, but PAF claims out of 12 Mirages(escorted by 8 Su-30) only 4 could deploy bombs before the formation had to disengage due to approaching interceptors.[3][4]
27th Fed:
i) PAF Strikes: PAF's stated mission was to demonstrate capability by striking near Indian Military Installation. Result: Success. 6 bombs weapons released, 1 more than the Indian claim.[5]
ii) IAF Response: Su-30, Mirage-2000 and Mig-21 responded.
iii) Final Score:: PAF: 1 Mig-21 Confirmed Kill, 1 Su-30 Probable or at the least a mission kill. IAF: No Kill, no missile fired. [6][7][8]
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[1]: Analysis of Satellite Imagery by 3rd Party Defense Publications. Identified 3 impact points on side of hill. Indicating 3 targets(more on this later).
[2]: Local & International Media reported from area within hours so they would have picked up chatter/gossip from locals even if there was a cover up going on as claimed by Indians, but nothing of the sorts was reported.
[3]: This claim was made by AM Haseeb Paracha in Sept. 2019 special program celebrating successes of PAF.
[4]: India Media reported that 12 Mirages(6 Spice-2000 + 6 Popeye) + at least 4 Su-30 that participated in mission. Another Indian Media outlet reported that Mirages failed to deploy Popeye Missile due to weather that's why IAF has no video of strikes. But given Popeye has Inertial Navigation System complimented by TV/IR guidance and has day/night/severe-weather capability its strange it could not be deployed due to weather. Also Indian Media reported that of 6 Spice-2000((3 for 1 single target + 1 each for remaining 3) only 5 were launched against "3 of 4" targets.
Analysis: NationalInterest article also identifies 3 impact points on side of the hill through satellite, which would indicate the 3 targets. Its unlikely that off the 5 weapons launched against 3 targets; 3 missed and 2 ended up on target since all would have been programmed with similar target coordinates.
Reuters reported four large craters on ground, which would either mean that 1 of the bombs hit in or around the existing crater from earlier bombs. This would also explain PAF assertion that only 4 bomb craters were found. Again its highly unlikely that off 5; 4 ended up on side of the hill and 1 ended up hitting the top when they would have been programmed with similar coordinates.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...strike-shows-how-hard-precision-bombing-49397
https://indianexpress.com/article/e...i-popeye-jaish-training-camp-balakot-5602272/
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/exc...e-in-pakistans-balakot-by-mirage-2000-2028332
The Spice 2000 bombs were aimed at "four targets, of which three were hit. One [was hit] with three [bombs] and the remaining two with one bomb each," said a source familiar with the operations that day.
https://indianexpress.com/article/i...s-in-jaish-madrasa-were-hit-official-5607623/
"Two Reuters reporters who visited the site of the bombings, where four large craters could be seen, said up to 15 pine trees had been brought down by the blasts. (Reuters)"
[5]: PAF stated objective from get go was "capability demonstration by striking empty spaces near Indian Military Installation". IAF agreed that PAF bomb struck empty spaces within/near Indian Military installations and hence this was act of Military aggression. So PAF claim was seconded by IAF itself. Moreover PAF showcased video from at least 1 target and given nature of H2/H4 any military expert would understand that if PAF wanted it could have struck on that target at least.
[6]: PAF showcased all missiles from Mig-21 either intact or still attached to the wreckage. Even before PAF; defense enthusiats were able to identify these parts around Mig-21 wreckage.
[7]: IAF showed AMRAAM piece; whose state indicated that war head exploded. Whether this happened due to Chaff or fighter itself is not known. But none the less Su-30 were out of the fight and PAF completed it mission with ease. So at the very least this missile achieved a mission kill of Su-30.
[8]: PAF used the words "it threatened PAF strike package..." in its memorial; which indicates Su-30 was targeted as it threatened PAF Strike Package, so even a mission kill is important in this case.