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Will Waziristan break Pakistan's back?

Why in the world have we all the problems? one problem isnt over, here comes another one. Lalmasjid, suicide bombing within the captial, kidnaping and abduction of the army personal, growing tailban influence, political turmoil are just few of the problems mentioned that we are facing currently after the current government decided to joint WOT. I wonder when the government says that joining wot was actually infavour of pakistan and then on the other hand we see the problems faced by pakistan currently and even the threat that the current government was avoiding ( Direct US attack ) seems now inevitable, why did we join this war? Was is worth all the trouble that we have faced and will face in the future. I guess not.

Mistake was not it in joining WoT, but in allowing its terriory to be used by US to fight its cold war foe. Its that mistake thats led you here, with rspect to WoT i would say Pakistan had no choice.
 
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Very sensible stuff mentioned and i couldnt agree more accept for the fact that you dont provide the strategy that Pak might have adopted instead of joining so called WOT (remember india was ready to offer her territory for any support). Noone even musharrraf wanted to be in wot, but i dont think we had many options ( take it as our weak faith), No doubt 9/11's greatest sufferings are on Pakistan. No moe country has more suffered than us. How would Pak lookl like say 30 yrs from now? God Knows!
 
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Mistake was not it in joining WoT, but in allowing its terriory to be used by US to fight its cold war foe. Its that mistake thats led you here, with rspect to WoT i would say Pakistan had no choice.

Options and choices are not given by any one, they have to be created for oneself, its time we learn to make our choices keeping pakistans interest supreme otherwise we have suffered in the past and the nations that dont rectify the mistakes of the past are lost forever.
 
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Options and choices are not given by any one, they have to be created for oneself, its time we learn to make our choices keeping pakistans interest supreme otherwise we have suffered in the past and the nations that dont rectify the mistakes of the past are lost forever.

good textbook stuff, but still no alternate suggested
 
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There is only one answer Strong Economy = Strong Pakistan and Weak Economy = US puppet. Time for pakistan to introspect on what legacy they want to leave to their future generations. One of Pakistan's greatest assets is it well educated and brilliant manpower and they must decide Pakistan's future. They will have to grapple with situations like Islam vs Modernity for eg I understand its un islamic to take photos but all passports require photos for travel so can necessity overide islamic beliefs ?

Best Regards
 
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Karpov,

I would agree with Mastan Khan and Wilco - The job of a spokesperson is not to make up things or convey whatever he feels like, but to communicate whatever the organization decides should be communicated, based on what they know. The people in the Army don't sign up to be spokespeople, they sign up for being trained as soldiers. Waheed Arshad comes across as pretty articulate to me, much better than Shaukat Sultan.

However there is a lot of confusion around the fact that the army said the soldiers had not been taken hostage initially. That could because there had been a renewal of the Sara Rogha peace agreement just days before, so the Army did not expect Baitullah to back stab us, (tribal code of honor and all seems to have gone down the drain with these people). The weather was indeed quite bad, as everyone (tribal sources and official ones) kept reporting, therefore possibly not allowing air support (a day or so later a heli carrying the Jirga members also had to turn back because of bad weather), so perhaps the militants used the army's communication setup (or their own "emissaries") to present the view that the troops had been held back because of the weather and that they were "guests" of the Mahsuds. This would have given them time to split up the solders and transport them to various locations.

Blain or someone else may be able to elaborate better, but to me this does point towards glaring deficiencies in rapid support for troops under ambush because of the lack of fixed wing air support. Should the PAF be involved in this? They could get to situations like this one much faster, though I am not sure how much all-weather capabilities we have, and how much the communication system was effected by the bad weather.

Mistake was not it in joining WoT, but in allowing its terriory to be used by US to fight its cold war foe. Its that mistake thats led you here, with rspect to WoT i would say Pakistan had no choice.

Fighting the Russians was as much in our interest as was joingin the WOT. It can be argued that in both cases we could have faced an existential threat by being sandwiched between two hostile powers. The fault lay in the world abandoning Afghanistan afterwards, and Pakistan not taking steps to reverse the extremism set in motion by Zia-ul-Haq. Pakistan also made a huge mistake in not recognizing the Talian menace earlier and taking steps to bolster the traditional Tribal Maliks (260 of whom have been killed so far by the Taliban) after the U.S invasion. The eroding of the traditional authority of the area has allowed the Taliban to get to this point.
 
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Fighting the Russians was as much in our interest as was joingin the WOT. It can be argued that in both cases we could have faced an existential threat by being sandwiched between two hostile powers. The fault lay in the world abandoning Afghanistan afterwards, and Pakistan not taking steps to reverse the extremism set in motion by Zia-ul-Haq. Pakistan also made a huge mistake in not recognizing the Talian menace earlier and taking steps to bolster the traditional Tribal Maliks (260 of whom have been killed so far by the Taliban) after the U.S invasion. The eroding of the traditional authority of the area has allowed the Taliban to get to this point.

What would have happened if Pakistan extended a freidnly arm to the Russians? The russiand would have gleefully accepted it, right? And then where would US get a spae to manouvor?
 
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What would have happened if Pakistan extended a freidnly arm to the Russians? The russiand would have gleefully accepted it, right? And then where would US get a spae to manouvor?

I think that the concern lay with the Russia-India nexus. Plus the fact that the Afghan regimes weren't very friendly towards us after independence. It was a valid concern.
 
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Tell you what! I have seen some jokers in uniform on TV, but this guy is a total clown, he never acknowledges the truth and just speaks rubbish. Duno how people lik ehim become generals, seems lost brother of Shujjat, the way he speaks, Brig cheem ai much better in terms of communicatio and intuition.

Karpov,

Lets not get carried away with this overt criticism. Most people, including myself, have been taking liberties with what little information we have. Maj Gen Waheed Arshad does a credible job of stating what he can disclose (go beyond that and your arse is in the trouble...remember he is representing the Armed Forces of Pakistan). There may be sensitivities around the situation on the ground thus he may not be able to fully disclose them. Military operations and situations are not ones where they should be presented to the public like an open book. The information needs to be vetted before its shared and many a times the whole picture is not even with the local commanders.

The officers and soldiers if found negligent of their duties will be dealt with upon their return. Pakistan Army does not let things like this go by easily. May the following will help in understanding the situation:



ISLAMABAD: The government has decided to give negotiations a chance to secure the release of 240 soldiers including seven officers from the custody of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan, a senior government official told a select group of journalists on Thursday.

“It is a difficult situation and a different environment. We do not want to inflame the whole area ... negotiations are continuing ... we need to give some time to political talks,” the official said, adding that it had been decided at the highest level that the situation should not be allowed to aggravate. “But we have all options to get the army men released ... the situation cannot be allowed to linger on.” He said the troops were captured because they “exercised restraint and complacency together”.

He said the Americans and NATO forces were failing in Afghanistan because they had insufficient troops and collusion with those who had stakes in drug trafficking and gunrunning. “NATO forces and the Americans cannot succeed in Afghanistan until they take the Taliban on board,” he said.

Without naming any country, the official did not rule out any foreign hand in the suicide bombings in Pakistan and said there were “foreign and local” vested interests that were creating a perception that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies were not capable of handling the internal security situation.

He said that there was cross-border movement, but it had considerably reduced. He linked the suicide bombings with the tribal situation. “The linkages are mostly in NWFP and also in other parts of the country.” He said the government could choke the supplies to the tribal areas but it would be a last resort.

He said if the army was not present in the area, the Americans or NATO forces would have moved in to attack militants in the tribal areas. “Doing is the main problem. There are people here who supported the Taliban. Money and ethnic linkages are there. If we do not do it, someone else will do it,” the official said, adding that it was a situation where Pakistan could not refuse to handle the militants.

source: Daily Times


So there are no desertions, nobody has gone AWOL...there will be accountability when the troops are released. The situation is already tense in the area...responding with more firepower and military action will act as a catalyst for more bloodshed. This is something that Pakistan does not need right after the Lal Masjid operation and all of the other stuff with CJP, elections etc. going on in Pakistan.

So my suggestion to all is to have a cold one (be that a brewski, or Ice tea or lemonade) and chill out! :cheers:
 
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but to me this does point towards glaring deficiencies in rapid support for troops under ambush because of the lack of fixed wing air support. Should the PAF be involved in this? They could get to situations like this one much faster, though I am not sure how much all-weather capabilities we have, and how much the communication system was effected by the bad weather.

Agnostic,

There is an integrated PAA component available to the troops in the Tribal areas. The issue is how and when its used. Usually when the convoys move in areas where there are hostiles, then Cobras provide support (they have even fired at suspects when in force protection role). In this case, it seems like the Convoy was moving and those who planned it did not think that support from the air was necessary.
On the other hand, you have to think about tribal sensitivites...a Convoy of 200-300 people is moving and then you have combat helicopters over them gives the look of some action waiting to happen. Maybe the commanders wanted to keep it low profile thus no air support was provided. In terms of capability, I do not think there is shortage of that in the PA or within the PAF...what lacks is credible intel that can pinpoint the threat. Last thing you want to see happening is a strike against the tribals which results in innocents losing their lives (this would be a propaganda victory for the other side).

The way most reports look to me, the troops in the area took it easy while in the Convoy. That cost them their capture.

I am sure heads will roll upon return, however its just not clear what the exact situation was when this happened. At least the government sources are indicating that restraint and complaceny both had a part to play.
 
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What would have happened if Pakistan extended a freidnly arm to the Russians? The russiand would have gleefully accepted it, right? And then where would US get a spae to manouvor?

Pakistan would have extended a friendly hand to them only if they had not invaded Afghanistan. Pakistan never had bad relations with the USSR. They were so-so but never bad (even after USSR backed India during the 1971 crises). Any book you pick up about the reasons for Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there is a warm water linkage (essentially meaning Karachi or the coast of Baluchistan). Now hindsight is a luxury that we have but back then they did not...maybe if Pakistan had not acted, Soviets would have just left Afghanistan after raping and pillaging it (wishful thinking).

Pakistan, just like many other countries made a call...some of the effects of which can be seen today, many more would come in the next 50-100 years. The same can be said of any calls made by anyone..look at the US call in Iraq and Afghanistan, or US agreement 123 with India...what pandora's box does that open for the rest of the world?, Nothing but good seems to be coming out of it for India, but who knows about the effects of it on global proliferation of nuclear technology as they will be seen and felt over the next few decades?
 
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I think that the concern lay with the Russia-India nexus.

Russia-India nexus, might be.

Plus the fact that the Afghan regimes weren't very friendly towards us after independence. It was a valid concern.

Any book you pick up about the reasons for Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there is a warm water linkage (essentially meaning Karachi or the coast of Baluchistan).

But when you have Russia in control there was no need to think about Afghan regimes and on the contrary you could have offered the russians the vital sea link. I understand its easy to speak in hindsight, but lets just speculate.
 
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But when you have Russia in control there was no need to think about Afghan regimes and on the contrary you could have offered the russians the vital sea link. I understand its easy to speak in hindsight, but lets just speculate.

Bull,

The link to the warm waters was never severed. All of the trade from Afghanistan goes that route and did so back then as well. Russians wanted military presence in order to be able to exert influence on the US along the crucial warm waters of Persian gulf...if we had gone along with the Russians, we would have become their pawns as US would not have liked it (we have had much closer ties and dealings with the US than the Russians...so it was a natural choice...military in Pakistan has always been with western leaning thus the reason for working with the west to stand up to Russian aggression)...I think Pakistan being caught between the rock and a hard place had to choose and chose the US side (overall that was a better decision).

I must also point out that Zia-ul-Haq took this decision against the USSR way before US offered any aid to Pakistan...Hopefully you remember the "peanuts" rejection of Zia to what the US administration was offering. We really did not do this to curry favor with the West but out of our own security compulsions and convictions. Personally despite all of the stuff that has befallen Pakistan, I think it was the right decision.
 
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Karpov,

The officers and soldiers if found negligent of their duties will be dealt with upon their return. Pakistan Army does not let things like this go by easily. May the following will help in understanding the situation:

ISLAMABAD: The government has decided to give negotiations a chance to secure the release of 240 soldiers including seven officers from the custody of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan, a senior government official told a select group of journalists on Thursday.

So my suggestion to all is to have a cold one (be that a brewski, or Ice tea or lemonade) and chill out! :cheers:

Dear Blain,

What you have written is very wise. I hope accountability is the order of the Day in Pakistan. My worry is today you have a military regime in place. What will motivate them to investigate themselves ? As a patriotic citizen of my country I would be very worried if 200 British Soldiers(please note I know the difference between Paramilitary and the Military) were detained by Welsh Farmers just because they were on an exercise mission there.

Best Regards
 
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To all people who believe Russia and Pakistan can be friends I wan't them to remember one thing. The Lts, Capts and Majors of the Russian army who lost more than 20,000 comarades in Afghanistan are todays Generals, Politburo members etc. They will never forgive Pakistan.

History can never be turned back.

Regards
 
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