Ive been thinking iranian is using their 3000year history of diplomacy to always stay a step ahead of other countries and their plans. Bit like China always knows how to deal with the West and does not come out empty handed or sucked into a stupid war.
Iran's goal makes it impossible for the country to totally avoid direct conflict - or at least it's unachievable without the
direct use of military force. Iran wants to mold the region in its own image (forget the bluster about Israel). Iran's first targets are the Sunnis of the region, then the Sunnis of the world. Iran has NO intention of fighting any direct wars against another country. These are the steps it has taken and continues to take, which is leading it nowhere:
1. First, it wants to insulate the regime from a direct military attack. It is trying to do this by stockpiling missiles and building a nuclear arsenal.
2. Secondly, it tries to hijack countries from within by creating a state within a state through proxies like Hezbollah
3. Thirdly, these proxies will gradually accumulate military and economic strength with the ultimate aim of taking over the country or ensuring that the government pursues only Iran-friendly policies. Any attempt to dismantle these proxies lead to a civil war in that country.
Iran does this while trying to bolster its image in eyes of less critical Sunnis via its bluster and hot air against Israel and America.
But things aren't working out well for the Mullahs due to the following reasons:
1. They assumed that by not using direct force, hostile governments like America and Israel won't employ direct force on Iran. They got this wrong: Saddam Hussein used force against Iran. America used limited force against Iran (praying mantis). Israel assassinated Iranian scientists, covertly bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, sank Iran's naval ships, assassinated IRGC officers, etc. America assassinated Soleimani while at the same time heaping sanctions on Iran and warning the Mullahs not to go for nukes.
2. Iran underestimated America's determination to protect its petrodollar system (the backbone of America's power both military and economy). Iran's strategy of gradual but hostile expansion is easy to dissect despite its denials. This is why the Mullahs find themselves on the back foot now. They are trying to survive not expand. To limit its losses, the US doesn't want to topple the regime via direct military action if possible. It wants to use colour revolutions and ISIS to accomplish this but Iran is a harder target for these operations. Trump went further by assassinating Soleimani - thus, daring the Iranians to openly draw American blood. Expectedly, the Mullahs backed down.
3. America is now more termined than ever to topple the Iranian regime. It knows that Iran won't take any direct military action against America or Israel for fear a US military response. So, the US created conditions for a civil war in Iraq and Lebanon. The US wants a civil war in Iraq that destroys Iran's militias and fosters the growth of terrorists that threaten Tehran. The first attempt with ISIS faile, but I'm sure the US is preparing a second one. If America wanted stability in Iraq, it would have long installed a puppet Sunni dictator to rule Iraq with an iron fist. But there's no guarantee that a stable dictatorship in Iraq would willingly go to war with Iran just to appease Washington. So, better to leave Iraq destabilized and without a stable government to impose order.
It appears the Americans want to first weaken Iran's proxies severely, especially Hezbollah, before sparking a civil war in Iraq. It's not a coincidence that both Lebanon and Iraq are close to descending into full chaos.
I have to stop here for now.