Will Iran enter to the war against Israel?

[Hack-Hook]

Iraq is in the area, as described "Mediterranean or North Atlantic above the Tropic of Cancer"

to be honest Iraq is neither north Atlantic nor Mediterranean

 

[HGV]

Not directly, regardless of the bellicose rhetoric from Iranian leaders (bluffing as usual).

 

[jhungary]

to be honest Iraq is neither north Atlantic nor Mediterranean

But that's the definition on Article 6,

The funny thing as my wife pointed out, look closely, article 6 mentioned both Atlantic Ocean and The Mediterranean, so if we just interpret it as it is, then none of the troop will be protected anywhere because you can't put troop in the ocean, which mean either we can just abolish the entire article 6 (which means also abolish article 5) or it would mean the area intersect the ocean and north of the equator.

 

[jhungary]

I was saying it would be relatively difficult for US to invade Iraq this time around.

Result of US war games in 2002 was not favorable. Now Iran has far more capabilities.

There were reports about US running out of shells when they decided to give DU shells to Ukraine.

I was talking about local contractors.

Again, how is it harder to think it would be for US to invade, if you look at US troop deployment, they were up to 40% at that point in 2003 when they deployed to Iraq, Beside the that's the reason why we dipped into National Guard for deployment. We had around 80,000 troop in Afghanistan, 5000 in KFOR, another 10,000 in variety of UN Duty and also overseas US deployment (like station force in SK, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Philippine and so on), we still able to scratch up 130,000 US troop for Iraq

Now, beside the Oversea deployment, we don't have any active war, don't have any active UN or NATO mission, and you think we can't deploy enough troop to Iraq and fight a war??

Iran has more capability than 2003, but then so did the US, and it would be honestly naive to think Iran have more capability than the US. And we don't depends on local contractor in Iraq, it's either US or TPN (Third party nation) such as Nepal (eg Gurka solution), locally we only hire translator.

And finally, either you have misheard or misunderstood the term or reason why DU shell is sent to Ukraine. First of all, no country in this world is stupid enough to send all their stock and completely taken out their combat readiness to help other countries, there are red line on aid, and you can't go below that line, in the US, that line is roughly 25% of the US stock, because that would take them roughly a year to restock, and that is the balance here because 75% opf their ammunition would last between 12-18 months of operation. "Running Out" means running out of that red line, it does not mean it run out of shell in munition depot......

Article 5 only covers attack on NATO member's territories, not on half a world away colonial outposts

Hawaii May Not Be Protected Under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty

There's one notable exception to the areas protected by the original NATO agreement. It seems to have forgotten about what drew the United States into World War II in the first place: Hawaii.

www.military.com

no..........again, I have quoted both Article 5 and 6, it does not.

And a giant hint for you, Turkey themselves seek Article 5 protection from Syria means they also think it was protected, and I don't think there are no legal scholar available in Turkey to say they couldn't, if they couldn't. Which mean they think it is the case here. Again, as I pointed out already. Ground Forces in North Atlantic and the Med north of the equator is covered, as long as they were not there to conduct offensive operation.

 

[jhungary]

How do you think Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas receive tangible Iranian support without sharing a border?

Iran has direct land access all the way to Palestine through its vast hidden networks.

Iraq is de facto an Iranian client state, despite US presence.

US soldier count in Iraq, as of March 2023, is only 2500!

First of all, if Iraq is de-facto Iranian state, there won't be 2500 US Soldier in Iraq. Let's be very clear here, there will be 0, as Iraq would have asked us to leave or attack us already.

Secondly, shipping something in peacetime and shipping something during wartime is different, there are flight from Iran to Lebanon now fly over Iraq, that would stop the moment Iran enter the war. And I am not talking about deployment (well, I did a little) the issue would come when Iraq has to stop Iranian flight (or Israel will stop it for them if they don't) in case of war broke out between Israel and Iran, how do you support your troop or equipment in Lebanon? Lebanon don't make Iranian weapon, every drone, every tank shell, every missile Iran use in Lebanon would have to transport from Iran to Lebanon, and once that air corridor is closed, how do you support your troop in Iran.

Weirdly, as the Chinese said here, you can't go to war with Israel unless either Turkey or Iraq did, and US plays a major factor here. Whether you like it or not.

 

[HGV]

as Iraq would have asked us to leave

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/06/793895401/iraqi-parliament-votes-to-expel-u-s-troops-trump-threatens-sanctions

Secondly, shipping something in peacetime and shipping something during wartime is different, there are flight from Iran to Lebanon now fly over Iraq, that would stop the moment Iran enter the war. And I am not talking about deployment (well, I did a little) the issue would come when Iraq has to stop Iranian flight (or Israel will stop it for them if they don't) in case of war broke out between Israel and Iran

You are suggesting Israel will intercept Iranian airlines over Iraq?

, how do you support your troop or equipment in Lebanon?

There is a sea route, air route and land route. Smuggling is rife and Israeli leaders admit they cannot intercept everything.

Lebanon don't make Iranian weapon

They do. Iran has emphasised transferring knowledge to create self-sufficiency among the resistance axis (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen). Hezbollah has its own local production systems for SRBMs. Ancillary items like guidance kits can be smuggled from Iran without much difficulty.

 

[ST1976]

Iran warns of ‘preemptive’ action against Israel amid Gaza war

Tehran has warned that a ground offensive on the besieged Gaza Strip would be met with a response from other fronts.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[PradoTLC]

Pakistan will run away and hide.

You mean the army junta that has currently seized power

 

[jhungary]

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/06/793895401/iraqi-parliament-votes-to-expel-u-s-troops-trump-threatens-sanctions

Yet,, we still there.

You are suggesting Israel will intercept Iranian airlines over Iraq?

If Iran enters a war with Israel, yes

There is a sea route, air route and land route. Smuggling is rife and Israeli leaders admit they cannot intercept everything.

Air route is too easy to intercept, you can't make a plane disappear.....sea route again, NATO would block both Red Sea and Gibraltar choke point, you can't ship anything to Lebanon if you cannot pass thru either choke point. And how much stuff you can carry thru ground route and how long does it take. It's like asking Russia to bring in their war material to support the war in Ukraine over land from Siberia.....

They do. Iran has emphasised transferring knowledge to create self-sufficiency among the resistance axis (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen). Hezbollah has its own local production systems for SRBMs. Ancillary items like guidance kits can be smuggled from Iran without much difficulty.

Basic manufacturing, probably, not anything complex, and you can't win a war without a Ground component, Russian SRBM wouldn't work in Ukraine, hell, RuAF didn't work in Ukraine either and you are talking about Israel, which are 100 times better defended from the air. You will need heavies to go in and take Israel out, otherwise it's hard to punch thru the Iron dome, and even if you can, each SRBM have a payload no more than a 2000lb bombs, it's not going to make much difference. And it would be extremely non-cost effective to lob missile into Israel.

 

[LeGenD]

I was saying it would be relatively difficult for US to invade Iraq this time around.

Result of US war games in 2002 was not favorable. Now Iran has far more capabilities.

There were reports about US running out of shells when they decided to give DU shells to Ukraine.


I was talking about local contractors.

MC02 featured a total of two combat scenarios - each representing a different deployment tactic to see how it can shape the course of battle and outcome. US Navy failed in combat scenario 1 due by exposing itself in the Gulf of Oman - this was intentional to see what happens (i.e., setting yourself up for failure can be instructive). US Navy succeeded in combat scenario 2 with different rules of engagement.

MC02 was aimed to test different battle tactics and spur USN to make its ships more capable and survivable than ever before:

2001	2018
AEGIS Baseline 6	AEGIS Baseline 9
Munition SM-2ER = 8 SM-2MR = 46 ESSM = 8 TLAM = 32 VLA = 8	Munition SM-3 = 8 SM-6 = 16 SM-2MR = 30 ESSM = 16 TLAM = 32 VLA = 6

Latest developments:

- SM-2 munition is entirely replaced with SM-6 munition and SM-3 munition loadout is increased.
- TLAM improvements ongoing
- AEGIS Baseline 10 is emerging

The SM-6 missile is three missiles in one. It's the only weapon that can perform anti-air warfare, ballistic missile defense and anti-surface warfare missions. SM-6 munition is designed to intercept numerous airborne threats including long range ASBM. Case in point = FTM-31 E1a live fire test.

Houthi in Yemen attempted to sink US Navy ships in 2016 only to be disappointed:

USS Mason encountered and neutralized 7 anti-ship cruise missiles in Yemeni waters in 2016

"On three separate dates in October 2016, the USS Mason (DDG-87), USS Nitze (DDG-94), USS San Antonio (LPD-17), and USS Ponce (AFSB-15) came under attack while operating off the western coast of Yemen, near the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. While all four ships were not always operating together as a...

defence.pk

Iran has come up with impressive tools of war but US wasn't sitting idle.

If the above does not convince you then there is only one way to find out which side is more capable.

Iran warns of ‘preemptive’ action against Israel amid Gaza war

Tehran has warned that a ground offensive on the besieged Gaza Strip would be met with a response from other fronts.

www.aljazeera.com

Let's see if Iran can do something about American fleets that have arrived to support Israel.

 

[azbaroj]

a more practical issue is where would Iran jump off with Israel?

Iran does not share a border with Israel, Israel only have border with Lebanon, Syria Egypt and Jordan, and Iran have either Turkey or Iraq to go thru before they can reach Syria, i seriously doubt Turkey will let Iran transit thru their territories, and Iraq is littered with US forces there, any movement there will alert Israel before even their force left Iran. And I doubt even Iraq government would allow Iran to transit thru their territories to get to Syria or Lebanon

The other way they can go is go all the way up Red Sea into the Med, which was controlled by NATO, it's going to take them ages and not guarantee they aren't going to be blockaded before entering the med. There are no practical way for them to heavily involved, other than firing missile from their off.

Any war between Iran and Israel has to be a ground war because Israel have unparallel advantage on their Air Force (Seriously we are talking about latest version of F-15E, F-16 and F-35 against Migs F-14 and F-5) and you are talking about launching strike into Israel with these legacy platforms, that's more or less suicidal, and you have to have way to deliver your troop and armour to the battlefield if you want to be a part of it, and I don't see how Iran can do it unless either Turkey or Iraq open their border for them to f with Israel, I just don't see how this would happen.

Iran is relying on its missile arsenals and proxy fighters . I think Iran poses 2 to 4 nuclear warheads and if so it will deter Israel to strike with nucs .

 

[HGV]

Yet,, we still there.

You said Iraq would have asked US troops to leave. They did. Admit your mistake like a man.

Air route is too easy to intercept, you can't make a plane disappear.....sea route again, NATO would block both Red Sea and Gibraltar choke point

OK, so you're not talking about an Iran-Israel war, but an Iran-NATO war. That's very different and already unrealistic.

To be clear, in this scenario you are suggesting that NATO would impose a total naval blockade on Lebanon?

And how much stuff you can carry thru ground route and how long does it take. It's like asking Russia to bring in their war material to support the war in Ukraine over land from Siberia.....

The distance between Iran and Lebanon is not big and can be travelled by car in less than a day. So no, it's not the same.

Basic manufacturing, probably, not anything complex

Incorrect. Hezbollah is known to produce solid propellants.

and you can't win a war without a Ground component, Russian SRBM wouldn't work in Ukraine,

Depends on the objectives and context.

it's hard to punch thru the Iron dome

We have seen it can be saturated and overwhelmed by Hamas. Hezbollah has rocket launcher vehicles that each have 72 rocket tubes. Run the numbers: how many of them launching at once to overwhelming X number of Iron Dome batteries at Y site?

, and even if you can, each SRBM have a payload no more than a 2000lb bombs, it's not going to make much difference. And it would be extremely non-cost effective to lob missile into Israel.

Israel has no strategic depth and has a few significant targets. Ben Gurion, Dimona, Haifa ammonium plant and about 10 military airports. Therefore, precision guided SRBMs can inflict significant damage to Israel.

Before we talk about victory or defeat we have to define what these words mean in this context.

 

[Blue In Green]

MC02 featured a total of two combat scenarios - each representing a different deployment tactic to see how it can shape the course of battle and outcome. US Navy failed in combat scenario 1 due by exposing itself in the Gulf of Oman - this was intentional to see what happens (i.e., setting yourself up for failure can be instructive). US Navy succeeded in combat scenario 2 with different rules of engagement.

MC02 was aimed to test different battle tactics and spur USN to make its ships more capable and survivable than ever before:

View attachment 963095

View attachment 963096

2001	2018
AEGIS Baseline 6	AEGIS Baseline 9
Munition SM-2ER = 8 SM-2MR = 46 ESSM = 8 TLAM = 32 VLA = 8	Munition SM-3 = 8 SM-6 = 16 SM-2MR = 30 ESSM = 16 TLAM = 32 VLA = 6

Latest developments:

- SM-2 munition is entirely replaced with SM-6 munition and SM-3 munition loadout is increased.
- TLAM improvements ongoing
- AEGIS Baseline 10 is emerging

The SM-6 missile is three missiles in one. It's the only weapon that can perform anti-air warfare, ballistic missile defense and anti-surface warfare missions. SM-6 munition is designed to intercept numerous airborne threats including long range ASBM. Case in point = FTM-31 E1a live fire test.

Houthi in Yemen attempted to sink US Navy ships in 2016 only to be disappointed:

USS Mason encountered and neutralized 7 anti-ship cruise missiles in Yemeni waters in 2016

"On three separate dates in October 2016, the USS Mason (DDG-87), USS Nitze (DDG-94), USS San Antonio (LPD-17), and USS Ponce (AFSB-15) came under attack while operating off the western coast of Yemen, near the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. While all four ships were not always operating together as a...

defence.pk

Iran has come up with impressive tools of war but US wasn't sitting idle.

If the above does not convince you then there is only one way to find out which side is more capable.

Iran warns of ‘preemptive’ action against Israel amid Gaza war

Tehran has warned that a ground offensive on the besieged Gaza Strip would be met with a response from other fronts.

www.aljazeera.com

Let's see if Iran can do something about American fleets that have arrived to support Israel.

not all too confident in their ability to target and score successful hits on CBGs (or any ship) at range given that we haven’t seen what a targeting chain looks like aside from possible OTH radars being used and maybe daisy chaining drones to relay coordinates. I believe AshBMs and cruise missiles use radar homing, infrared and sometimes radio in terminal phases to lock in but that still leaves how the missile gets to the general area. I’m assuming satellites aren’t viable as they wouldn’t be able to update information to launch teams fast enough to be practical; besides not many military satellites available for Iran anyway aside from Russian ones. Maybe submarines will be used (?).

USN ships should have adequate time to pickup on hostile missiles heading their way; employing evasive maneuvers and using several layers of air defense to quell most incoming fire.

Irans missile force is designed to destroy massive amounts of static assets but moving targets are a different story altogether.

Ships within 300km (Persian Gulf Waters, a little ways into the Arabian Sea) are most easy for Iran to hit as there are more numerous systems available for them to use.

 

[nibba]

No.

The USA will not attack Iran, never will. The Crazy Mullahs are a gift that keeps on giving!

In any case though, if war breaks out and Iran is attacked, which it will not be, but lets pretend it does, then the Straight of Hormuz will shut down, no ship will be able to cross the Suez Canal because Iran can easily target that on both its ends. The UAE will be turned back into a desert, Riyadh will be leveled and Iran will test its nuke by the coast of Yemen. That is, if Iran is ever attacked while a truly patriotic Iranian govt is in charge.

Same as Pakistan, armed to teeth with everything but ruled by traitors to Allah and their own country!

The USA is an empire, although tired of war, it still is an empire and understands clearly that the status quo is of great benefit!

Hormuz will be shut down with what?

I dont think iran has the capability to sustain that

 

[Blue In Green]

Hormuz will be shut down with what?

I dont think iran has the capability to sustain that

They can mine the straight and threaten all traffic with the literal thousands of AshCMs and AshBMs hidden along the Southern Coastline in many underground bases, “missile cities”.

IRGC has built truly substantial infrastructure in the West and South of Iran solely dedicated to missile firing platforms.