Seems like you are severely overestimating US/NATO power, fatally underestimating Iran's capabilities & not recognizing current context of geopolitics.
- In 2003, US has lot of ammo & quality troops. Now they have spent much of their storage in Ukraine & their troops are woke. Pak might also stop supplying ammo to Ukraine/US.
- In 2003 Iraq war, contractors (esp technical) played an important role. They will not be available this time. Recently we heard news of US deploying Reserves (technical personnel) to some eastern europe NATO country bcz that country had shortage. How would you fight in this condition?
- In 2003, Iran was neutral. Now Iran will mine entire Persian gulf. No ship or sub will sail there.
- You may not be able to supply your forces in ME or will face severe difficulties.
- Cargo ship (including fuel or LNG tankers) will not be able to leave gulf. Petrol would be $100k per barrel with in no time. Chinese (& European) industry would collapse too. A sort of financial nuclear bomb for world.
- US/NATO are engaged in Ukraine. Opening 2nd front would be difficult for them. Possibility of China invading Taiwan increases ten folds if US invades Iran.
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- You seem to be giving much imp to Tanks & artillery etc. They are irrelevant if you have ATGMs & kamikaze drones as evident in Russia Ukraine War.
1.) US was fighting another war, plus UN commitment (KFOR, UNTAET and so on). and yet we can spare the troop to invade Iraq, we do not have UN commitment and currently we have no war.
2.) Contractor business in US increased multiple fold after Iraq and Afghanistan, when I was in the military, there were only 3, when I leave, there were 7, and when I joined L3, there were 16, and now there are roughly 25 PMC in the US alone, I don't know which planet you are living on, today PMC are more abundant and a lot cheaper, if we can afford to use PMC back in 2003, we can certainly afford PMC today.
3.) I don't know why you think laying mine is useful, number 1, Iran don't have enough naval asset to protect their minelayer. When they were deployed, you don't even need an entire CBG to shoot them out of the water. Second, demining is not something very hard to do, and if you think Iran have what it takes to take on a CBG, then all I can say is you probably know nothing about how navy work.
4.) Lol, US and NATO are giving Ukraine minimal equipment, US given Ukraine 31/8000 M1 Abrams, 200/6000 Bradley, 110/1400 M777, 20/560 HIMARS, 0/385 M270 MLRS, 0/1100 F-16, 0/255 F-15E NATO did not even donate 1% of their entire equipment stock and 10% of their ammo stock, with 0 NATO soldier involve, explain to me how they cannot start another front?
Kamikaze drone won't work unless you have a full spectrum ISTAR, because you need to know where your target is for you to launch drone, ATGM can only work in build up area, Iran is not Russia, Iran don't even have their own satellite, Iran don't have AWACS, how do you suppose to locate your target? And then Iraq is not Ukraine, Iraq don't have a lot of build up area to hide your ATGM team.
I mean, if you want to believe NATO cannot invade Iraq, well, I don't honestly know what should I say to you.