Will Iran enter to the war against Israel?

[nibba]

They can mine the straight and threaten all traffic with the literal thousands of AshCMs and AshBMs hidden along the Southern Coastline in many underground bases, “missile cities”.

IRGC has built truly substantial infrastructure in the West and South of Iran solely dedicated to missile firing platforms.

I think they can shut it down. I dont think they can sustain it.

The rest of the world (except russia possibly) cannot allow a regime that would do that continue to exist. It would be their death warrant..They havent built up enough to take on what would come to them. It wont just be NATO

 

[nibba]

Middle east needs to remember what it was like before the 2010s and the shale revolution. US added 15million barrel equiv per day of production in ~10 years and suddenly became very friendly. The growth there is done.

You have forgotten what they do to you.

I think whole islamic world is on knifes edge.

 

[Blue In Green]

I think they can shut it down. I dont think they can sustain it.

The rest of the world (except russia possibly) cannot allow a regime that would do that continue to exist. It would be their death warrant..They havent built up enough to take on what would come to them. It wont just be NATO

Don’t know honestly, Iranian armed forces are designed to take on American military might through an asymmetrical approach to warfare.

This entails passive defenses, mobile platforms spanning thousands of kilometers, large underground missile complexes dug deep into steep mountainous terrain. Very hard to get to.

NATO is busy in Europe battling Russia in Ukraine so idk how effective they’ll be on several fronts at once. The United States themselves aren’t too keen on getting embroiled into a new far more deadlier Middle Eastern conflict as well. Resources are spread thin, fighting Iran and its regional allies spreads them even thinner. We haven’t seen what an all out war between Iran and America looks like (I pray that we never will).

Note; I’m not saying Iran is going to win or outright beat the US, but there are some realities that we have to deal with.

 

[nibba]

Don’t know honestly, Iranian armed forces are designed to take on American military might through an asymmetrical approach to warfare.

This entails passive defenses, mobile platforms spanning thousands of kilometers, large underground missile complexes dug deep into steep mountainous terrain. Very hard to get to.

NATO is busy in Europe battling Russia in Ukraine so idk how effective they’ll be on several fronts at once. The United States themselves aren’t too keen on getting embroiled into a new far more deadlier Middle Eastern conflict as well. Resources are spread thin, fighting Iran and its regional allies spreads them even thinner. We haven’t seen what an all out war between Iran and America looks like (I pray that we never will).

Note; I’m not saying Iran is going to win or outright beat the US, but there are some realities that we have to deal with.

Ah yes. Americans are famously laid back when their resources are spread thin. Not predatory in the slightest. I think shale gas/oil is the biggest story in the peace we have had the past 10 years - has made people think america is a teddy bear


Anyway lets forget NATO.

India will not allow hormuz to be shut down. China will not allow hormuz shut down. Despite the protestations of the pakistanis on this forum, pakistan will not want hormuz shut down. Palestine will feel like a universe away if oil hits $250 a barrel.


None of the gulf states will want hormuz shut down, whatch how quick they will abandon palestine if it does.

 

[Blue In Green]

Ah yes. Americans are famously laid back when their resources are spread thin. Not predatory in the slightest. I think shale gas/oil is the biggest story in the peace we have had the past 10 years - has made people think america is a teddy bear


Anyway lets forget NATO.

India will not allow hormuz to be shut down. China will not allow hormuz shut down. Despite the protestations of the pakistanis on this forum, pakistan will not want hormuz shut down. Palestine will feel like a universe away if oil hits $250 a barrel.


None of the gulf states will want hormuz shut down, whatch how quick they will abandon palestine if it does.

On the contrary, I don’t believe the Americans are teddy bears whatsoever but a shooting war with Iran is a different beast altogether.

That’s all I’m trying to say.

 

[nibba]

On the contrary, I don’t believe the Americans are teddy bears whatsoever but a shooting war with Iran is a different beast altogether.

That’s all I’m trying to say.

Sure and im saying that iran would cease to exist if it closed hormuz.

It would probably have a better chance of surviving and keeping some friends if it actually nuked isreal

 

[Blue In Green]

Sure and im saying that iran would cease to exist if it closed hormuz.

It would probably have a better chance of surviving and keeping some friends if it actually nuked isreal

Yeah, no it wouldn’t lol.

Nuking Israel is far worse than a temporary closing of the Straight of Hormuz.

 

[KAL-EL]

Not directly, regardless of the bellicose rhetoric from Iranian leaders (bluffing as usual).

Anything's possible, but they threatened to do this before and bluffed so you're right.

Lots of bellicose language

People here on the Forum telling them what they should do isn't going to make them do it.

At this point though, I wouldn't rule anything out

 

[nibba]

Yeah, no it wouldn’t lol.

Nuking Israel is far worse than a temporary closing of the Straight of Hormuz.

No.

Nuking israel would be an israel and US problem. Hormuz is an everyone problem. They cant say its temporary or it defeats the purpose.

I can tell you 100% with 0 doubt india will go to war. It wont have a choice.

Taking 30% of the worlds energy off the market is an existential threat to billions of people. People will starve to death. Nobody is in an economic position to have $250-300 oil.

ChinA will too.

Pakistan will probably be the tip of the spear lmao their benefactors will make them

 

[Blue In Green]

No.

Nuking israel would be an israel and US problem. Hormuz is an everyone problem. They cant say its temporary or it defeats the purpose.

I can tell you 100% with 0 doubt india will go to war. It wont have a choice.

Taking 30% of the worlds energy off the market is an existential threat to billions of people. People will starve to death. Nobody is in an economic position to have $250-300 oil.

ChinA will too.

Pakistan will probably be the tip of the spear lmao their benefactors will make them

Yes.

Nukes invite nukes, it would mean the end of Iran as a nation-state plus unmitigated destruction.

Closing the Hormuz wouldn't have nearly as bad repercussions compared to a nuclear exchange.

But I see your mind is set on this matter so I won't reply further.

Agree to disagree.

 

[khansaheeb]

I think they can shut it down. I dont think they can sustain it.

The rest of the world (except russia possibly) cannot allow a regime that would do that continue to exist. It would be their death warrant..They havent built up enough to take on what would come to them. It wont just be NATO

Spoken like a true Hindoo with a yellow streak.

 

[ThunderCat]

Let's not mix normal people with a diplomatic relation or a national interest at large.
Israel was too polite to go against our nuclear reactors. They sided with India provided them with weapons that they used against Pakistan.
Iran on the other hand never did anything serious against Pakistan. In fact with Iranians we have a bond. We have historical, cultural, religious and ethnical ties with iranis.

Thanks to us not minding our own business. They attempted to attack our facilities because we engaged in previous conflicts against them.

But we also have had ties with Israel during the Soviet-Afghan war. Israel passed captured Soviet weapons in Lebanon to Pakistan to pass onto the Mujahideen.

The Iranian regime is no friend to Pakistan. It supports Shia extremism and has ties to India. They should not be allowed to posses nukes by any means.

They're a tyrannical regime whom terrorize their people.

 

[CivilianSupremacy]

The two US aircraft carriers have arrived for a purpose. Israel can bomb Gaza on its own, but the US carriers are there to give a message to ALL other countries that if anyone enters this war and attacks Israel then it will have to go through us.

So, Iran will NEVER enter in this war all alone. Iran cannot fight with the US. Last time in the late 80s, operation praying Mantis US destroyed half of Iranian navy and Iran could not do anything at all.

Iran can only join this war if Russia enters as well Or otherwise multiple countries enter in this war which is highly unlikely. Another unlikely scenario is China start its long due Taiwan operation and US forces are distracted against the Chinese. That will give the room for Iranians or others against Israel.

Israel is already strong military but its best defence is United States. No single country can challenge US

 

[Hack-Hook]

But that's the definition on Article 6,

The funny thing as my wife pointed out, look closely, article 6 mentioned both Atlantic Ocean and The Mediterranean, so if we just interpret it as it is, then none of the troop will be protected anywhere because you can't put troop in the ocean, which mean either we can just abolish the entire article 6 (which means also abolish article 5) or it would mean the area intersect the ocean and north of the equator.

you see when you say Mediterranean you tend to think of countries around it , Iraq is 2 country away .
and I hope we agree that Atlantic is not applicable in this case

by the way as far as I'm aware i believe this discussion is not really important . after how UNSC resolution about protecting civilian in Libya presented by NATO and some other countries , i think that not matter at all they can say for us Afghanistan is part of Mediterranean or even Atlantic, who is gonna stop them ?

RuAF didn't work in Ukraine either

if they used it it would have worked , but i wonder do you consider Russia used its air-force in the war a correct statement ?

Hormuz will be shut down with what?

I dont think iran has the capability to sustain that

with super tankers

 

[khansaheeb]

No.

Nuking israel would be an israel and US problem. Hormuz is an everyone problem. They cant say its temporary or it defeats the purpose.

I can tell you 100% with 0 doubt india will go to war. It wont have a choice.

Taking 30% of the worlds energy off the market is an existential threat to billions of people. People will starve to death. Nobody is in an economic position to have $250-300 oil.

ChinA will too.

Pakistan will probably be the tip of the spear lmao their benefactors will make them

So you expect India to invade Iran? I suppose it could be part of a flotilla of ships but then Pakistan isn't going to allow it to be circled on all sides by hostile nations. I doubt India has the guts to attack China not after the recent beatings they have been given. As for the Euro poodles they are busy barking at Russia and being diverted will be a risky proposition. Collapse of Ukraine will put all those barking poodles under direct Russian threat. This would mean greater dependency on the US , more US forces in Europe and more expansion of the great US empire and the tightening of the leash by Uncle Sam.