jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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Israeli will not use nuke unless they are threaten with existence crisis, which in this day and age it meant a second Arab Coalition that aimed at destroying Israel and right at the doorstep of Tel Aviv, otherwise any nuke or even attack launched from Israeli side into any of its Arab neighbor without a legitimate reason would mean the west stop supporting Israel, which means they are going to lose any war. Israeli learnt that from 1973 Yom Kippur War.It will not be effective then, Usa has massive fire power, from air and from the ocean. 200 F35s attacking Iran, backed with missiles. It would cause alot of damage to Iran, they will target and destroy all bases, airports, seaports in Iran.
Iran can only respond with missiles but usa aircraft carriers and destroyers will shoot them down. If Usa aircraft carriers do sink or Tel Aviv is destroyed then a few nukes could be dropped on Tehran, which most likely will lead to Iran surrendering.
Iran certainly needs a strong airforce with BVR missiles, destroyers and submarines with long range ballistic missiles and nukes. So if Tehran is destroyed, they will still have a 2nd strike capability.
Map where Usa aircraft carriers are based. Faar from Iran but capable to strike Iran, Hizbollah and Syria.
View attachment 965057
The problem with Hezbollah and to some extend Iran now is whether or not the US asset will go to war on Israeli side. The problem as I said is this is not 2006, when it was the IDF entering Southern Lebanon, if Hezbollah want to do anything meaningful (which mean not just lobbing missile/rocket) then they will need to at least launch an incursion into Northern Israel, or even associate with Syria to launch an attack in Israeli and Golan Height at the same time. There are already static defences and the garrison in those area are already being reinforced, which mean the only thing left to cover those area is air power, which Israeli are currently using them in Gaza, which is why these 2 Carrier Battlegroup with about 8 US Destroyer is there for, that 2 group with its associated LHA alone almost doubled Israel Air Power.
The issue with Iran is Iran have a relatively small coast, and one end is a dead end while the other is a choke point in Strait of Hormuz any naval development with Iran cannot be hidden, which mean there are only limited Traffic can pass thru there, that's good in defensive posturing, but it also open to blockade. On the other hand, it would cost Iran an arm and a leg to build up their Air Force at Israel level, There are virtually no chances at all Iranian Air Force can challenge USAF in any sort of numerical or technological advantage in the region. Unless Russia or China intended to support Iran without any condition. Which I very much doubt.