Will IAF have an edge over PAF in advanced air weaponry?

[Hasnain2009]

can you provide a link plz

Can posts thousands of links if you need more!!

 

[Hasnain2009]

If currency value again regains its value as it was in Early 2008, then the GDP Growth will 8%!!

 

[Hasnain2009]

^^^^^
GDP growth rate may drop below 1pc: official

Pak GDP growth < 1%


GDP growth rate may drop below 1pc: official



Thursday, February 05, 2009
By Khalid Mustafa

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is feared to experience negative growth this year in all sectors of economy except the agriculture sector, a senior official at Ministry of Finance confided to The News.

Growth in agriculture sector is expected around 4.5 per cent depending on wheat production, if this target was missed the Gross Domestic Product growth rate would be even less than one percent, he said.

Pakistan experienced negative growth in 1952 and if the agriculture sector does not perform up to expectations, then once again the country would be exposed to negative growth of 0.3 per cent.

In the last fiscal year, the agriculture growth was 1.5 per cent and now the country is expecting 4 to 4.5 per cent growth, which is to be the only factor that would take the GDP growth into positive zone.

“We are expecting negative growth by the end of the ongoing fiscal in all sectors of economy except agriculture. The massive negative growth is to hit Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and Construction,” the official said keeping in view the preliminary estimates worked out with regard to the expected GDP growth by the end of ongoing fiscal.

“Electricity & and gas distribution, Transport And Communication, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Finance and Banking, Public Administration and Defence and Social and Community Services are also not likely to perform, but the Agriculture sector would be in the positive zone with no major positive impact on overall GDP growth,” he said.

The government is alarmed over the performance in the said sectors of economy and is all set to revise the targets of GDP growth, tax revenue, inflation and exports with International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has extended to Pakistan the 23 months $7.6 billion bailout package under Stand By Arrangement (SBA).

For the ongoing fiscal, the official said, IMF had earlier fixed the target of 3.4 percent GDP growth, 21 percent average inflation, 12 percent growth in export and Rs1,360 billion tax revenue.

Pakistan and IMF would revise the targets during the appraisal process by IMF review mission that is to be held in Dubai during February 14 to 24 period.

Pakistan and IMF would revise downward the target of GDP to about less than one percent, as the global economic outlook has entirely changed from the world scenario during the October-September 2008 period because of the massive decline in oil and commodity prices in the international market.

The official said that Large Scale Manufacturing has 19 per cent weight in GDP growth and it is expected to experience negative 6.5pc growth in this fiscal.

Construction sector with 2.7pc weight on GDP would witness six per cent negative growth against 15pc growth in 2007-08.

Electricity and gas distribution has 1.6pc weight in GDP and its growth is likely to decline 5.5pc from 14.7pc in last fiscal. Mining and Quarrying has 2.5pc in GDP growth and it is likely to experience 3pc growth in this financial year. “This means the overall growth in industrial sector would be in negative zone,” the official said.

Transport and communication sector growth dropped to 1.5pc from 4.4pc in last financial year. Likewise zero growth in wholesale and retail trade is likely to decline to zero per cent from 6.4pc in 2007-08. This particular sector owns the weight of 17 percent in GDP growth of the country.

Finance and banking sector depicting 17pc growth in last fiscal is expected to show negative growth of 4.5pc. The weight of this vital sector stands at 6.5pc in GDP.

The government is expecting status quo in growth of 3.5 percent in ownership of dwellings sector. This sector carries the weight of 2.6 percent in GDP growth. Public Administration and Defence, which has weight of 6.5pc in GDP is likely to witness 5pc growth against 10.9pc in last fiscal year.

Where u found that?? Or you have made it yourselv!! Nice try!!
cheers

 

[acer]

^^^^yes article clearly says they are expecting 3.7 %of growth in GDP for the year 2008_09..
Still it is not good considering inflation around 20%

Where u found that?? Or you have made it yourselv!! Nice try!!
cheers

It is from a pakistani news paper..

GDP growth rate may drop below 1pc: official

 

[Hasnain2009]

^^^^yes article clearly says they are expecting 3.7 %of growth in GDP for the year 2008_09..
Still it is not good considering inflation around 20%

Yes i agree 100%!! Our govt. is very corrupt, they were borrowing hundreds of billion of rupees for central bank that's inflation rose to 24%, now govt is returning loans fo central bank, and inflation is near 19%, and expected to deline to 9% before July 2009!!

 

[Hasnain2009]

It is from a pakistani news paper..

GDP growth rate may drop below 1pc: official

Yeah its known pakistani news paper!! But i think that news is not verified, and made by the officials of news group.

 

[acer]

Yes i agree 100%!! Our govt. is very corrupt, they were borrowing hundreds of billion of rupees for central bank that's inflation rose to 24%, now govt is returning loans fo central bank, and inflation is near 19%, and expected to deline to 9% before July 2009!!

Yes that can be a basic reason for inflation..In technical terms it is dillution of currency ..That is also the prime reason for devaluation of rupee against $.

 

[acer]

Yeah its known pakistani news paper!! But i think that news is not verified, and made by the officials of news group.

But whatever proof provided by you is from newspapers..And this one is fresh news where it has mentioned about previous expectation of 3.7 %..
So untill other news comes it will hold good..

 

[Hasnain2009]

But whatever proof provided by you is from newspapers..And this one is fresh news where it has mentioned about previous expectation of 3.7 %..
So untill other news comes it will hold good..

This is from 7th Feb
World Bank to lend $2 bln to Pakistan in 2009 | Reuters

And expecting growth below 1 percent is written by only one source(so it may be wrong) but 3.7-4.5 is written by every credible source, in number of hundreds, so dont expect pak's economy growth below 1 percent!!

 

[acer]

Yes ..There are many articals which are expecting 3.7% gdp..I will go for that for the time being..

 

[zombie:-)]

guys stop hijacking the thread

MODS please delete unrelevent posts

 

[Manticore]

yes paf is a defensive force thus requiring less aircrafts
...
but i think that had we gotten the miragess in the 90s, most of the speculations would have not occured..paf had made a blunder at that time by not buying mirages. a country should buy the best qualitative jets which are available.. whatever the cost [the quantity can be debateable]
.
yes grippen tech was more for paf to absorb.. i posted that interview in the ''paf shouldve invested more in j10s'' thread. but jf17 block 2 would be 90percent grippen..so it is idiotic to go for costly grippen and selfreliant jf17 at the same time.
.
the future procurement of j10,jf17,eyeree will help in the defencive roles.
[i'm glad to know that the mlu will take place in pakistan]
[some j11b avionics are also put in j10... thus making it a far more agile dogfighter than the twin engine j11]
.....
but we do need a couple of hiteck squadrons.. if india buys f18, then maybe the other contenders would be more willing to sell things to paf.. a timely rafale order will really help us in the longrun as would take time to induct it anyway.
.
a person should be extremely self critisizing when it comes to defence.. the 65 glory is over.. now is 2009... how did we win in 65?americans were giving us their frontline jets..now they are giving third line jets with so many strings that just take the joy out of the ride.. i.e we had qualitative edge..which we have lost now. rafale might just give some of that edge back alongwith j10 plus f16 newer/upgraded blocks

 

[IceCold]

How can be tech too advance to absorb? I remember Mastan sir and i think it was Blain sir had a really long discussion and while Mastan sb was of an opinion that ACM meant we could not handle the Gripen in itself, Blain sir said that it was related to TOT only. Anyways how can PAF not be able to handle Gripen, i mean i don't get it, its not a rocket science for a professional airforce such as the PAF to handle an advance jet such as the Gripen or for that matter the EF or rafale.

 

[mean_bird]

Mean-Bird,

My good man, I appreciate your candor---we are talking intelligent now----you mentioned about integrating mirage 2000 and time it would take to do so---a plane that we are somewhat familiar with----how about integrating JF 17----a totally unproven system---a brand spanking new plane that has yet to be paired with weapons systems---we are putting the nation, the people---the welfare of the country---everybody's welbeing in a basket called JF 17----


You tell me----think like a commander---would you trust your flank with an unproven weapons system against a world proven top notch system---if you are the general of the army---Suppose you are the KHALID BIN WALID of the pakistani army---what would you have giving you protection---a Mirage 2000-5 / 9 or a JF 17 / FC 20.


Qatari and UAE mirages will number between 50--70---on our turf, we don't need a 400 hi-tech plane umbrella today to compete with IAF ( it will change in the coming years ) a 60 plane of the calibre of mirage 2000 5 / 9 capability will put the PAF flyer at a totally different pleateau---they will be the guardians of the skies----that would totally liberate the rest of the planes and their pilots to do what they do best. They will act as force multipliers----just think about it for one moment---if with today's armament---the IAF is hesitant in striking selected targets in pakistan keeping in view what is available---think what they would have gone through if we had mirage 2000's.



In the early 90's somebody spooked the PAF buyer of mirage 2000 about bribes---there were no bribes involved at all----it was a propaganda and mis-information by the indians to keep pakistan in control----and the fools that we are---we fell into that trap head first---and chopped are very legs by ourselves----by an individual who claimed to be a God fearing and honest air vice marshall---sick of these self-righteous fools---nobody thought of pakistan----nobody thought---when we stop this purchase----does our enemy benefit.

Yes there were constraints on the PAF---but being a defence force---dealing in death and destruction---they had to be prepared for the day when the sanctions would come off---what they would buy---it was their job to be prepared and ready that moment.

They should have prepared a two year plan---if today the sanctions came off---these are the two planes that we would go for----and so on for the next two years after the first two ended----the sanctions were not for a lifetime----they would have to come off one day----I just want to share with you the thought process of the PAF----they were too angry with their failure of not getting the F 16's----in their anger they made bad judgements one after the other----they compounded on the mistakes time and again----never admitting their fault to this day that they knew going in that the sanctions were acoming---.

MastanKhan,

I totally agree with you about M2K-5 being renowned and proven plane. No doubt about it that they would act as a force multiplier and are an exellent platform. But before, we even start debating on this, two questions need to be answered-

a) Are the UAE M2K available to us? if yes then when? AFAIK, it will take some time before UAE gets their rafale...surely you don't expect them to hand over the M2ks tomorrow and sit with an airforce without a plane.

b) How much is it costing us? As I said, after the sanctions period was over and while we had a booming economy, M2Ks were not the only planes available to us. Rafales, Grippen could have been other options. We are discussing used M2Ks from UAE under the "assumption" that they will be dirt cheap...so far nothing verifying this claim.

Until both the above questions are answered, both mine and your arguments would just be debate for the sake of a debate. Honestly, I have doubts on both the points i.e they are neither cheap, nor readily available.

Regarding your point about the PAF behaviour, its quite possible what you say. Makes sense too since if they haven't 'tasted' so to speak the BVR, they wouldn't emphasize so much on its importance.

But another theory could be that having been BVR less, and technologically and numerically inferior they want a long term parity instead of a short term. The idea being that in the days the sanctions were over, we were having relatively good relations with India, our Army is fighting in FATA under the gurantee that our eastern borders would be peaceful, and our significant development on the missile front. These could have been some reassuring thoughts for PAF to look for long term investment rather than short term. Both you and I know we couldn't have gone for both. Buy expensive planes now, and you must cut on the numbers of JF-17s ending up numerically inferior.

Regarding putting all your goods in one "untested" basket. Well, previously we had gone for the F-7 and Mirage III/V as our backbone. Surely JF-17, being developed as an improvement, and tested by experienced veterans, can not be worse. I doubt PAF would accept a not satisfactory plane just for ego.

Don't get me wrong...I am not against the Mirages. I would love them in our fleet. Back in the 90s it was because of Zardari (10% commission) that we couldn't get the planes since they were sought during PPPs regime. It was cancelled by Malik Miraj(coincidence? :p) Khalid. I don't think it was PAF who were spooked but dirty politics at work. Would have been much better if we had had them then.

So long story short...if we could get them now (which i doubt) its not a bad investment. If we could get them starting in 2-3 years, I think there are better alternatives.

My $0.02

 

[mean_bird]

Oh I do know the procedures involved. The Govt does consider all the possibilities and then comes to a decision. The Indian army, unlike that of some other countries, has no say whatsoever in that decision. Under any given circumstances, when ordered into battle, the forces GO! No if's and but's!

In any case, the IA was woefully ill-prepared in '99 - what with all the crippling sanctions. But still when ordered, they shooed out the encroachers/squatters from Kargil!!

~ Moriarty

You are failing to get a simple point. If an army says it isn't prepared, no sane govt. would send it to war. Ofcourse they would go to war if forced.

Today, of all indian forces, the indian army is least prepared and of all pakistan forces the PAF is least prepared. And if one of your forces is not ready, you don't go to war or anything that might lead to a war.

Kargil was a different issue...it was NOT an all out war.