First of all, I need to make it clear that India is completely responsible for the recent China-India tensions. After Trump visited India in February, Modi had already made up his mind to join in anti China coalition. From April India army broke the status quo at LAC to build roads and bridges there.
Back to the topic. The best choice for India is, sitting on the fence(plan A). Keeping same distance between China and US. Good choice is joining on China’s side(plan B). Worst choice is Joining on US side(plan C).
1, Why is plan A the best choice? It will guarantee India to make profit from both sides. Both sides are willing to offer bribes to India. After joining in US side, India has lost its strategic flexibility. China of course will become its enemy. For US, it doesn’t have to please India because India has no way back. Before the day India decided to side with US, India was the boss. After, US was the boss.
2, Why plan B is better than plan C? 1) If India joins in China side, its position in the ally will be one of the leader countries. May be next to China. On US side however, India will be one of pawn countries like Australia, Canada, Japan. Maybe even worse. 2) China can help India more than US does. First, China has more free money than US to invest. Second, India’s economic structure is too different than US’. China’s technology transfer is more suitable for India’s industry demands. China is good at infrastructure, energy, electronics, labor-intensive industries. US is good at semiconductors, aircraft, high tech products. US is neither suitable for India’s development phase nor willing to transfer it technologies to India or other counties. The China-US trade war has proven that. 3) China is India’s neighbour. US is too far away. China can help India more, also can hurt India more. I mean much much more.
Modi is not a smart leader. He may want to become Indian version Deng Xiaoping. Who joined in US side during cold war and started a war with China’s neighbour Vietnam, Which demonstrated to the world that China was on US board. And China gained a huge reward by that. But things are different this time.
1, Soviet Union was barely a big economic power. It was an energy and materials supplier. And it’s a declining super power. Leaving it would not cause serious loss. Now, US is the declining super power and China is the biggest and growing industry country.
2, Boycotting Chinese products set a glass ceiling for India’s future development. India can boycott Chinese products because it is an importer. But if Indians have a wider and longer view, they should know China is the world biggest market and will be the biggest technologies transfer source. Giving up China is equal to giving up India’s future. “No China” is okay for present India, but not okay if India wants to upgrade its industry structure. The higher India’s development stage is, the harder the glass ceiling will be.
3, China will not collapse like Soviet Union did. China is way stronger than Soviet Union. Western countries have huge interests in China. Chinese leaders are much smarter than Soviet Union’s leaders. Compared with Russians, Chinese are much hardworking and good at science and economic activities. China will haunt India forever.