Who Says North Korea Is Bluffing?

[third eye]

The new Fat Kim is bluffing when it comes to the USA. Maybe the intention is there, but he has no capability to achieve it (which would require advanced ICBM's with MIRV warheads).

But when it comes to South Korea it is completely feasible.

Over half of South Korea's population lives in the Seoul Capital Area, which is right next to the North Korean border. If the new Fat Kim wanted to wipe out the South Korean population, he actually does have the capability to achieve that.

If he did that, then there would be a new UN intervention in North Korea and this time we will not enter it, since nuking Seoul would be too much for anyone to explain. If North Korea wants this suicidal approach, then they'll have to handle it on their own.

CD

Why is China allowing this man to make a fool of himself & hold the world to ransom ?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

CD

Why is China allowing this man to make a fool of himself & hold the world to ransom ?

I'm not sure about the word "allowing".

A lot of people say, well China supplies the majority of food and electricity to North Korea, why don't we just cut them off?

But what will happen then? The entire population will starve, and millions of North Korean refugees will stream over the Chinese border creating a big crisis for us.

So we can't cut them off. Can we invade them? Probably, given what happened in the Korean War.

But the truth is that I don't want even one single Chinese person to die on behalf of North Korea. Hell, I don't even want one single piece of Chinese property to get damaged on behalf of North Korea, as uncharitable as that might sound. We have enough of our own problems, they need to learn to take care of their own.

 

[third eye]

I'm not sure about the word "allowing".

A lot of people say, well China supplies the majority of food and electricity to North Korea, why don't we just cut them off?

But what will happen then? The entire population will starve, and millions of North Korean refugees will stream over the Chinese border creating a big crisis for us.

So we can't cut them off. Can we invade them? Probably, given what happened in the Korean War.

But the truth is that I don't want even one single Chinese person to die on behalf of North Korea. Hell, I don't even want one single piece of Chinese property to get damaged on behalf of North Korea, as uncharitable as that might sound. We have enough of our own problems, they need to learn to take care of their own.

Point taken & accepted.

The fact that NK stays afloat thanks to the largesse of China would imply that China has a clout there. In any case it must be communicating more with DPRK than any other nation does.

China's silence would imply that either its aware that the thin red line will not be crossed or its a party ( allows) to what Kim is doing. The latter seems unlikely though but helps to keep US & its allies engaged and assess their reactions.

In any case should things go out of control - it would the 1st time US would be present so close to China since 1950 - something that throws up implications.

 

[cirr]

The NK has nothing to lose，while the SK has everything to keep。

Once I stood barely 10 yards from the river that separates the South from the North。

And it was pitch dark and eerily quiet。

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If I had to guess, I would say this one is more likely:

China's silence would imply that either its aware that the thin red line will not be crossed or its a party ( allows) to what Kim is doing. The latter seems unlikely though but helps to keep US & its allies engaged and assess their reactions.

After all, North Korea has always been more about bluster than anything else.

In any case should things go out of control - it would the 1st time US would be present so close to China since 1950 - something that throws up implications.

Yes, it would throw up lots of implications. And the vast majority of those implications would be bad. For us anyway.

 

[KS]

he's doing the same strategy as his father and gfather did,... full of bluffing to bring US down the table and win some prices... but before US bend down but it doesn't seem to happen, if Kim backs down it'll show his weakness to his people since he's a king of nk and very young I don't think so he would like to put his chin down.... maybe the war unlikely but issuing threat would continue until nk manages to design nukes to fit on a rocket....

lol you think his people are aware what is happening ?

 

[cirr]

The US is the menace here，not the NK。

If US troops pack up today and leave the Peninsula，NK will immediately abandon nuclear weapons。

The continuing presence of US armed forces in this part of the world is the root cause of all troubles involving the two Koreas。

 

[third eye]

If I had to guess, I would say this one is more likely:



After all, North Korea has always been more about bluster than anything else.



Yes, it would throw up lots of implications. And the vast majority of those implications would be bad. For us anyway.

Just as I expected.

 

[KS]

The US is definitely safe from NK regardless if conventional weapons are used or not. South Korea especially it's capital will be affected. However, if nukes are used, South Koreans (and maybe the Japanese depending on the weather) will be looking for a new homeland. The problem is that Washington needs to consider the well being of South Koreans and to a lesser extent, the Japanese. If North Korea won the war, Washington would have cratered that place a long time ago.

The more I think about it, neither the Americans nor the South Koreans would want a war simply for one reason. Who's going to pay for the reconstruction costs? I vaguely remember reading an article that the cost to South Korea would be greater than when Germany reunified.

On the other hand, Japan would win big if only conventional weapons are used as one economic rival would be removed from the picture for at least a decade. But Japan would lose big if nukes are used.

As for NK using nukes, I seriously doubt they have the capability to deploy via rockets. The best NK can do is detonate one near the DMZ and hope the radiation spreads to populated areas untouched by their initial artillery strikes.

In any case, the war will last about a few hours in favour of the Americans.

tl;dr - NK has nothing to loose,SK has everything.

 

[Shahin Vatani]

US doesn't mess with countries who have real power (nukes in case of DPRK). Kim Jong-un just sending a reminder to the US: "don't f*ck with us!"

 

[third eye]

The US is the menace here，not the NK。

If US troops pack up today and leave the Peninsula，NK will immediately abandon nuclear weapons。

The continuing presence of US armed forces in this part of the world is the root cause of all troubles involving the two Koreas。

This is funny and so typical of all dictators who blame what the do on others.

What has the US done since 1950 that merits NK to starve its ppl and cut them off from the world ?

 

[KS]

The new Fat Kim is bluffing when it comes to the USA. Maybe the intention is there, but he has no capability to achieve it (which would require advanced ICBM's with MIRV warheads).

But when it comes to South Korea it is completely feasible.

Over half of South Korea's population lives in the Seoul Capital Area, which is right next to the North Korean border. If the new Fat Kim wanted to wipe out the South Korean population, he actually does have the capability to achieve that.

If he did that, then there would be a new UN intervention in North Korea and this time we will not enter it, since nuking Seoul would be too much for anyone to explain. If North Korea wants this suicidal approach, then they'll have to handle it on their own.

Much thanks, Xi Jinping.

 

[A.Rafay]

They are just bluffing to save his regime, Kim Jong knows he is doomed if he did anything!

 

[cirr]

The very fact that the US continues to station over 30，000 soldiers in SK 60 years after the Korean War speaks volumes about its cold war mentality。

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Just as I expected.

If any of the sides genuinely wanted a war, they could have started it anytime. It's not hard to start a war, if that is their actual goal. Just mobilize and go.

As of now, it's all bluster and posturing.

That could change in the future of course, but personally I feel this game of diplomatic posturing will continue, since none of the sides are willing to accept the casualites of such a war.