If you have followed Modi's way of thinking, implementing what he wants to do, not just as a Prime Minister but from his Chief Ministerial days he is not going to stop this matter here. Next few days are going to be quite interesting.
Where do India and Pakistan go from here?
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Clutch
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This may turn out to be a fate changer for Pakistan...
22°30'18.5"N 66°06'49.5"E
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Thəorətic Muslim
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where do India and Pakistan go from here?
Simple. Defense budgets of both nations raise some more.
India finally get's its 120 Rafale Plane MMRCA deal.
Pakistan get's SAMs, Frigates, ?J-10s?
And the poor people of both nations starve for more nights.
Vapnope
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Keeping in view the history of Indo Pak conflicts, it clear as a sun that India would not forget this incident and would up the ante to "Punish" Pakistan. The current ruling elite and their sheep is not going to sit down and go for dialogue with Pakistan.
For our part, i'd like the organizations of JeM and JuD to be dismantled and banned forever for our own good. There should be more focus to get economy on track and putting education as a priority.
For our part, i'd like the organizations of JeM and JuD to be dismantled and banned forever for our own good. There should be more focus to get economy on track and putting education as a priority.
VCheng
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Pakistan's fate hinges on its economy, first and foremost.
How convenient. And no promises of budget cuts in talks with the IMF.
Thəorətic Muslim
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coffee_cup
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And then the next weeks and then the next months and then the next years...
I have said it over and over again, as long as Pakistan remains the decisive factor in winning an election in hinduist extremist majority India, these theatrics are not gonna stop...
Clutch
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That is there turning point.
Arsalan
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But don't media tells what people want to hear? Isnt this their biggest sales pitch and tool to gain audience. To them its business after all.
niaz
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As a retired person I have plenty of free time and I spend most it surfing the net. I have been watching the events after the Pulwama attack ever since it happened and also reading posts from my fellow members. Regrettably, it appears that our nation as a whole has not matured and there is a lot of “Naivety” in our way of thinking
We need to realize that there are no “Free lunches”. Helping fellow Muslims only works to a certain limit but not beyond. Bitter truth is that national policy is governed by the national interest only and not based on religion, ethnicity or race. Alignments and friendship among the nations change with the need of the time.
Indian statement that it was a pre-emptive strike as further terrorist attacks were shortly expected is mere “Hogwash”. Balakot is miles away from LOC. View the difficult terrain & the countless Indian Army checkpoints; infiltration into IOK; would take days; if at all successful.
Here is the actual wording of the UN Charter clause:
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. “
This is a very contentious clause. Understand that it was only intended to be used in situations when the adversary is amassing troops on your border (similar to what happened after Indian parliament attacks) hence you strike before the enemy force becomes too powerful.
To the best of info, until now this has only been used by Israel & the US against the countries who were powerless to retaliate. Should the US attempt a pre-emptive strike against a powerful adversary such as China, or Russia, there would be a full-scale nuclear war.
Despite the fact that Pulwama suicide attack was carried out by an Indian national, Pakistan as a country was held responsible by India.
Shouldn’t we ask ourselves why in addition to the US / European countries, our Muslim brothers & China also avoided issuing a strong statement against the blatant violation of our sovereignty when 12 Indian Mirage-2000 fighters bombed Balakot; not part of Azad Kashmir but of KPK province?
To add insult to injury, India, who is not a member, was invited to attend the OIC meeting without any regard of Pakistan’s feelings?
Isn’t this behavior sufficient for us to realize that there is something that India is doing right and what Pakistan is doing wrong?
In my humble opinion, the reason is not rocket science. There are two factors. Firstly India has a much stronger economy, and with 350-million middle class; all countries want to enter the Indian market. We need to make Pakistan economically strong to have more say in international affairs.
Secondly, in the eyes of the rest of the world, ever since the exit of Russia from Afghanistan; Pakistan has become a safe haven for the terrorists. We keep saying that we have lost 70K Pakistanis to the WOT, that being true the fact remains that OBL was found in Pakistan, the Mullah Mansour, chief of Afghan Taliban killed in drone attack inside Pakistan with a Pakistani Passport.
Maulana Masaud Azhar was arrested in IOK in 1994. In 1999, IAL fight IC814 was hijacked and Masaud Azhar along with 3 others as released in exchange of the hostages.
The Hague Hijacking Convention postulates that anyone involved and /or accomplice in the hijacking of a civilian airliner should be severely punished.
http://www.oas.org/juridico/mla/en/treaties/en_conve_suppre_unlaw_seiz_aircr_sig_the_hague_1970.pdf
However, not a single hijacker nor Masaud Azhar were apprehended in Pakistan. Instead, Masaud Azhar even managed to find financers to form Jaish-e- Mohammed. One of the first acts by Jaishe Mohammed was to gun down 16 Christians while praying in the Catholic Church in Bahawalpur in 2001.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...4e6-8b2e-569196ed634b/?utm_term=.621399453b02
Did anything happen to Masaud Azhar in consequence? He is still living freely in Pakistan. The same thing is true for Laskar Taiba & SSP. When the GOP banned these outfights, they simply changed their name to Jamaat Dawa and Jamiat Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat and went on with business as usual.
GOP has always demanded proof before taking any action. In this case, Indians are pointing out that the very fact that JeM has claimed responsibility should be proof enough. It has been two weeks and no spokesperson from JeM has denied that the Adil Dar (Suicide bomber) was their man.
The direct effect of the inaction over the years against such organizations by the GOP, international community, including our brother Muslim countries, completely ignore atrocities of the Indian armed forces against the Kashmiri civilians and instead accept the Indian narrative that the problem in Kashmir is not home-grown but Pakistan sponsored. I heard an American Lady Professor of George Town University agree with the Indian narrative on the Indian NDTV. Pakistan is also in the danger of FATF Blacklist.
Unfortunately, after the IAF Balakot attack, the paradigm has shifted. Unless we can satisfy the UN SC members that GOP is serious about controlling JuD & JeM; there is a very serious risk of all-out war; with the world siding with India: if anything similar to the Pulwama incident recurs.
Pakistan forces are quite capable of tackling Indian forces but unfortunately, our economy will not be able to sustain any war lasting more than a couple of weeks at the most.
For Pakistan, International forum is extremely important. I am, not suggesting that we hand over Masaud Azhar & Hafiz Mohammed Saeed to India. However, instead of merely asking for “Proof” from India, our agencies should themselves look into their activities and curtail the same. Such action needs to be visible to the international community. This would also help in removing Pakistan from FATF Greylist
My compatriots may think that my attitude betrays a fear of India and betrayal of the Kashmiris cause.
Like most Pakistanis, I am not the slightest bit afraid of the Indian military. My fear is that even though the current crisis would probably be resolved, war is a very costly affair and the economy is currently not strong enough to sustain a full-scale war. IMHO welfare of Masaud Azhar & Hafiz Saeed is not worth the risking the death of hundreds of Pakistani Jawans and destruction of Pakistan’ economy.
Association of the outfits like JeM & Jud with the Kashmiris struggle has already damaged the Kashmiri cause beyond measure. We would actually be helping the Kashmiris if we totally curtail any involvement of Pakistani based outfit from their freedom struggle.
We need to realize that there are no “Free lunches”. Helping fellow Muslims only works to a certain limit but not beyond. Bitter truth is that national policy is governed by the national interest only and not based on religion, ethnicity or race. Alignments and friendship among the nations change with the need of the time.
Indian statement that it was a pre-emptive strike as further terrorist attacks were shortly expected is mere “Hogwash”. Balakot is miles away from LOC. View the difficult terrain & the countless Indian Army checkpoints; infiltration into IOK; would take days; if at all successful.
Here is the actual wording of the UN Charter clause:
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. “
This is a very contentious clause. Understand that it was only intended to be used in situations when the adversary is amassing troops on your border (similar to what happened after Indian parliament attacks) hence you strike before the enemy force becomes too powerful.
To the best of info, until now this has only been used by Israel & the US against the countries who were powerless to retaliate. Should the US attempt a pre-emptive strike against a powerful adversary such as China, or Russia, there would be a full-scale nuclear war.
Despite the fact that Pulwama suicide attack was carried out by an Indian national, Pakistan as a country was held responsible by India.
Shouldn’t we ask ourselves why in addition to the US / European countries, our Muslim brothers & China also avoided issuing a strong statement against the blatant violation of our sovereignty when 12 Indian Mirage-2000 fighters bombed Balakot; not part of Azad Kashmir but of KPK province?
To add insult to injury, India, who is not a member, was invited to attend the OIC meeting without any regard of Pakistan’s feelings?
Isn’t this behavior sufficient for us to realize that there is something that India is doing right and what Pakistan is doing wrong?
In my humble opinion, the reason is not rocket science. There are two factors. Firstly India has a much stronger economy, and with 350-million middle class; all countries want to enter the Indian market. We need to make Pakistan economically strong to have more say in international affairs.
Secondly, in the eyes of the rest of the world, ever since the exit of Russia from Afghanistan; Pakistan has become a safe haven for the terrorists. We keep saying that we have lost 70K Pakistanis to the WOT, that being true the fact remains that OBL was found in Pakistan, the Mullah Mansour, chief of Afghan Taliban killed in drone attack inside Pakistan with a Pakistani Passport.
Maulana Masaud Azhar was arrested in IOK in 1994. In 1999, IAL fight IC814 was hijacked and Masaud Azhar along with 3 others as released in exchange of the hostages.
The Hague Hijacking Convention postulates that anyone involved and /or accomplice in the hijacking of a civilian airliner should be severely punished.
http://www.oas.org/juridico/mla/en/treaties/en_conve_suppre_unlaw_seiz_aircr_sig_the_hague_1970.pdf
However, not a single hijacker nor Masaud Azhar were apprehended in Pakistan. Instead, Masaud Azhar even managed to find financers to form Jaish-e- Mohammed. One of the first acts by Jaishe Mohammed was to gun down 16 Christians while praying in the Catholic Church in Bahawalpur in 2001.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...4e6-8b2e-569196ed634b/?utm_term=.621399453b02
Did anything happen to Masaud Azhar in consequence? He is still living freely in Pakistan. The same thing is true for Laskar Taiba & SSP. When the GOP banned these outfights, they simply changed their name to Jamaat Dawa and Jamiat Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat and went on with business as usual.
GOP has always demanded proof before taking any action. In this case, Indians are pointing out that the very fact that JeM has claimed responsibility should be proof enough. It has been two weeks and no spokesperson from JeM has denied that the Adil Dar (Suicide bomber) was their man.
The direct effect of the inaction over the years against such organizations by the GOP, international community, including our brother Muslim countries, completely ignore atrocities of the Indian armed forces against the Kashmiri civilians and instead accept the Indian narrative that the problem in Kashmir is not home-grown but Pakistan sponsored. I heard an American Lady Professor of George Town University agree with the Indian narrative on the Indian NDTV. Pakistan is also in the danger of FATF Blacklist.
Unfortunately, after the IAF Balakot attack, the paradigm has shifted. Unless we can satisfy the UN SC members that GOP is serious about controlling JuD & JeM; there is a very serious risk of all-out war; with the world siding with India: if anything similar to the Pulwama incident recurs.
Pakistan forces are quite capable of tackling Indian forces but unfortunately, our economy will not be able to sustain any war lasting more than a couple of weeks at the most.
For Pakistan, International forum is extremely important. I am, not suggesting that we hand over Masaud Azhar & Hafiz Mohammed Saeed to India. However, instead of merely asking for “Proof” from India, our agencies should themselves look into their activities and curtail the same. Such action needs to be visible to the international community. This would also help in removing Pakistan from FATF Greylist
My compatriots may think that my attitude betrays a fear of India and betrayal of the Kashmiris cause.
Like most Pakistanis, I am not the slightest bit afraid of the Indian military. My fear is that even though the current crisis would probably be resolved, war is a very costly affair and the economy is currently not strong enough to sustain a full-scale war. IMHO welfare of Masaud Azhar & Hafiz Saeed is not worth the risking the death of hundreds of Pakistani Jawans and destruction of Pakistan’ economy.
Association of the outfits like JeM & Jud with the Kashmiris struggle has already damaged the Kashmiri cause beyond measure. We would actually be helping the Kashmiris if we totally curtail any involvement of Pakistani based outfit from their freedom struggle.
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SecularNationalist
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What most indians failed to realize is that pakistan is not gujrat and modi,s way of thinking alters when he have to deal with it,s nuclear armed neighbor.During such crisis he is not the alone decision maker he must obey his generals and military advisors because they are more aware of the consequences of any misadventure with pakistan.
Peace
We are not going anywhere unless and until indian public starts recognising Pakistan's efforts in war against terrorism, every time blaming Pakistan within 24 hours is childish and stupid, and if anyone thinks that Pakistan hasn't acted against non state actors, he needs to update himself, Pakistan surely has changed a lot. It's an ongoing process ....... and in recent clashes if india has achieved any success against so called terrorists infiltrating from Pakistan ... it should show it to the world or at least its own citizens. Stupidity and childish behavior should stop now ...... and I hope after seeing the response it would. We want a strong leader in india who can work with Pakistan to steer this region in right direction, we don't want a sissy maniac whose only solution is fooling his own people and escaping from any chance of talks with Pakistan, spreading so much hatred that even ordinary people ignorant of each other start hating each other. Its an undeniable fact .... that who has been spreading hatred and intolerance amongst their people?
No one wants and wishes stability more than us, we have seen it and suffered at the hands of it. Our PM and military are on record multiple times saying that we want to talk ....... and the other side is on record multiple times denying the offer.
I don't know how op linked Afghanistan with india Pakistan relations ........ it would be highly unjustified if we wish to believe that Pakistan is using or can use Afghanistan against india ...... in what possible way Pakistan can use Afghanistan against india? They don't share any borders. However, it is very much difficult now to deny that who may have used Afghanistan against Pakistan.
We are not going forward unless indian public starts showing sympathy towards plight of indian occupied Kashmiris. That is the only reason for conflict between two countries. People of Kashmir like any other people deserve the right to chose who gets to run their affairs. Demilitarize the region and look for a sound lasting solution.
No one wants and wishes stability more than us, we have seen it and suffered at the hands of it. Our PM and military are on record multiple times saying that we want to talk ....... and the other side is on record multiple times denying the offer.
I don't know how op linked Afghanistan with india Pakistan relations ........ it would be highly unjustified if we wish to believe that Pakistan is using or can use Afghanistan against india ...... in what possible way Pakistan can use Afghanistan against india? They don't share any borders. However, it is very much difficult now to deny that who may have used Afghanistan against Pakistan.
We are not going forward unless indian public starts showing sympathy towards plight of indian occupied Kashmiris. That is the only reason for conflict between two countries. People of Kashmir like any other people deserve the right to chose who gets to run their affairs. Demilitarize the region and look for a sound lasting solution.
the more things change , the more they stay the same.
I only see things escalating further every now & then. You seemed to have missed the fact that Manmohan singh was the last PM of older generation who carried the emotional baggage of pre-partition India. These oldies were mature enough to understand the long term consequences of making bad decisions. Coming govts will run policies as quarterly financial report of profit & loss.
coffee_cup
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Even though some of the points that are made are very good and valid, from my point of view, it can not be one way.
We have equivalents of Masood Azhar and Hafiz sitting in the highest posts of Indian govt.
We have yet to see any culprits of Samjhota express terrorist attack, which was squarely blamed on Pakistan, to be punished.
And then there is the Kashmir issue.
India being the larger country must show her seriousness about combating terrorism by not sponsoring it in the first place. And I can assure you, other countries like Pakistan who want nothing but the economic recovery would not have any reason for revenge etc.
India must cool down the situation in Kashmir and must stop engineering things close to elections. Most of which are making Pakistan a boogey man.
Govt under IK is damn serious about economy and not interested in d!ck measuring with india, but if they keep walking that road, we have our own hawks here as well...
International opinion, even though important, keeps changing and mostly favor the winners. This is the bitter reality.
Neutron
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India & Pakistan should resolve kashmir dispute through dialogue as per UN resolution. As we know that, India is not intrested in resolution of Kashmir dispute therefore we cannot do anything about it. India will have to face more embarrassment in this time tickling bomb called kashmir, if not resolved it will end up into a Major dissaster.
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