What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

[Stryker1982]

If they were "desperate to sign a nuclear deal" then they would just accept to go back to their original agreement and reinstate the JCPOA. Why do they insist on new conditions if they are so desperate?

Let me explain,

The US can just leave max pressure sanctions on Iran indefinitely, inflation is still rising in Iran, and the government is still printing money. What would be their incentive to remove sanctions?

Only incentive is to enrich at 60% or 90%. This pressure caused by stockpiling the gains from 2 cascades producing at 60% is what is causing them urgency to even sit and talk. Besides this their is no incentive for them to speak. Just strangle Iranian economy until they give up.

Because they have no intention of warfighting, they are in a urgency where they want to negotiate and were upset when Raisi told them to delay talks until he is inaugurated. They are in a rush.

 

[Falcon29]

Iran will quietly work with USA, UK, India, and Russia to counter Taliban in Afghanistan. That is the truth. They don't want a religious armed movement controlling a neighboring country. Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan is a setback for Iran's cultural war in the region. Taliban affiliated militants or other militants in Afghanistan may come to clash with Iran if Iran engages in cultural war in Afghanistan or try to recruit Afghans to fight in Syria.

Taliban will face trouble, sanctions, civil strife. Iran will work with all those mentioned above to try to cause as much trouble for Taliban governance. Of course under table because they want to maintain anti-USA/Israel for public opinion purposes in order for cultural war to be successful. If Iran was serious about any kind of 'anti-imperialism', they wouldn't try to ideologically or culturally influence militias they support and wouldn't try to fit them into anti-Arab narrative like they try to do with Hamas. Iran is trying to add Iranian cultural and ideological touches to people it support. It cannot do that with Taliban and Taliban is not going to participate in war against Saudi's, Syrians or others in region, even just by narrative. Any because Taliban Sunni background mean it will not be persuaded of Imamate ideology which teach submission to ayatollah in Iran who is considered the modern day Imam.

 

[925boy]

That and the $300 million a day that they were spending in Afghanistan means that they have a lot of resources at there disposal for future wars and lets not kid ourselves.

Only country with actual, real financial resources for war(not BORROWED DEBT) is China IMO. I generally agree with you and understand your point, but i believe if there's a time the US ACTUALLY doesnt have real, plentiful financial resources for big wars, its now. USD is dropping invalue by the day, we have cryptos and Chinese Yuan going mainstream day by day, but up until this time, we all know USD was the only currency the world used for anything international. Then what about MOrale? If you know american, you know their ego is so massive, its easy to damage it heavily from small blow that are accurate- this is US's longest war, AND IT LOST TO "rag tag " Taliban...so US probably cant enter another big war soon, because it will need therapy aka calm itself down and reconcile WTF just happened to it in Afghanistan...and look at all that equipment we left there...alot more came to US probably but all those craps will need upgrades, maintenance... bro, and other world countries are the most armed they've been in recent times.. so when i combine ALL these factors, i'm ready to bet money US either wont want any war with any country other than small defenseless nations, or "terrorists"..US is already afraid of Venezuela already and how strong is Venezuela?? we are in new territory these days, but i like it- multipolarism creates reasonableness. Cheers!!

 

[zartosht]

while ahmadi is an unstable idiot... there is some merit to what he said.

its beyond suspicious how the taliban suddenly stopped attacking americans... for a yaer and half not a single american was touched. they got quickly legetimized with negotiations (where as before they were savage terrorists)

and then everything was left in their hands.. and many of their top leaders were in CIA/pakistani custody. something is really fishy here. Iran should be very suspicious of this taliban.

 

[HAIDER]

Iran will quietly work with USA, UK, India, and Russia to counter Taliban in Afghanistan. That is the truth. They don't want a religious armed movement controlling a neighboring country. Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan is a setback for Iran's cultural war in the region. Taliban affiliated militants or other militants in Afghanistan may come to clash with Iran if Iran engages in cultural war in Afghanistan or try to recruit Afghans to fight in Syria.

Taliban will face trouble, sanctions, civil strife. Iran will work with all those mentioned above to try to cause as much trouble for Taliban governance. Of course under table because they want to maintain anti-USA/Israel for public opinion purposes in order for cultural war to be successful. If Iran was serious about any kind of 'anti-imperialism', they wouldn't try to ideologically or culturally influence militias they support and wouldn't try to fit them into anti-Arab narrative like they try to do with Hamas. Iran is trying to add Iranian cultural and ideological touches to people it support. It cannot do that with Taliban and Taliban is not going to participate in war against Saudi's, Syrians or others in region, even just by narrative. Any because Taliban Sunni background mean it will not be persuaded of Imamate ideology which teach submission to ayatollah in Iran who is considered the modern day Imam.

Everyone is working with US, Money talks. Taliban is working with US. They want US govt to release 10 billion development funds early as possible.