What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

[HammerHead081]

Don't be a hypocrite when it comes to Iran. Currently Pakistan is supporting the Taliban. All of the Taliban leadership are currently in Pakistan. Even Chinese media outlets have verified this. Don't even try denying this. The entire world knows the truth.

Iran is an Islamic Republic and 90%+ Shia. So when Muslims, especially Shia are being oppressed or hurt anywhere, Iranian people care and Iran does have as much of a right as any other country to intervene to defend its national security/interests.

If USA can intervene in the region to defend its national security then why can't Iran? If Pakistan can give support to the Taliban because it's their national interest, then why can't Iran do the same ?

Iran would prefer not to intervene anywhere in any way but if it's in Iran's national interest, Iran will not hesitate to do whatever is necessary regardless of what anyone says or thinks.

People can cry, scream, complain, whine. Iran will do whatever it needs to do.

Sit down. You cannot even feed your own population.

 

[Aramagedon]

Mujahedeen were trained by Pakistan ISI and CIA. When we were involved there were no Taliban in existence, not Afghan Taliban, not Pakistani Taliban not even any Islamic emirate. You should go back to your study table and read more.

There was no proof ever presented by America to the world that Osama really existed in Pakistan. Operation did occured but what they achieved or what they did is something we may know 20-30 years later.



Pakistan is giving "sanctuary" to 3-4 million Afghans. Why don't they give us names and locations and we will hand them over. But tell me this. If 90% of Afghanistan is currently held by Taliban, and they had 30-35% Afghanistan in previous years. Why did they needed sanctuaries in Pakistan . ? Doesn't it make logistics and coordination complex and difficult ?



Just stick to your borders and no one cares what you do inside your borders. You are turning allies / friendly countries to neutral /adversaries with your expansionist policies. No body care about you untill you throw your packed shit in their backyard.


A Muslim country X have gangs ( Shia gangs and Sunni gangs). Both fight against each other because both consider themself the true believers. KSA come to fund the Sunni gang and Iran come to fund plus arm the Shia gang. Mashallah, now country X have a sectarian conflict.

These jew freemasons have nothing to do with Islam.

Sit down. You cannot even feed your own population.

Alas the Muslim ummah couldn't learn from you how to feed thier people ..

 

[SalarHaqq]

We want you to stop sending terrorists in Yemen, Syria, and in Iraq.

And who would these terrorists be, and what acts of terror did they commit? Also, were they imported from Iran or are they rather locals with solid roots in their land?

 

[Goenitz]

And who would these terrorists be, and what acts of terror did they commit? Also, were they imported from Iran or are they rather locals with solid roots in their land?

It was response to @sha ah that Pak shouldn't support Kashmir struggle. Kashmir is at least disputed territory.

Then comes whether local or foreign people have entered to support the struggle. But the point is, is that valid to enter or support armed struggle in a sovereign country? S.Arabia supported FSA, was as bad as Iran supporting Houtis.

 

[Dariush the Great]

You lost you scientists and got explosion in your nuclear facility. Plus jindullah, captured your soldiers. So, leak in security happen.

We are a new country with many ethnic and religious fault lines. Compared to yours, who has been a country for 1000 of years. Compare things under standard conditions.

The theory is fake at least that buildings collapsed due to fire.

We want you to stop sending terrorists in Yemen, Syria, and in Iraq.

That is expected in our case. When you have all the Western intel agencies + the media gang up on you security lapses do happen and will happen in the future. Apart from that the entire country is safe unlike our neighbors to the East. Where the national hobby is civil war or a beheading or two. I only mention this because you were hostile in your post. I mentioned the daily blasts in your country recently to look up your true enemies and not bark against Iran.

 

[AmirPatriot]

My post was merely to highlight what the Taliban coming to power would mean for Iran, not to start the usual PDF arguments. But it was not unexpected, I guess.

 

[Goenitz]

That is expected in our case. When you have all the Western intel agencies + the media gang up on you security lapses do happen and will happen in the future

Good if you are dealing with them well. As stated before, leakages occur. Even Mullah Omar was living near a US base in Afghanistan till his death, so intelligence failure occurs. However, in a closed society as Iran, this should be minimum as no foreigner shd have easy access, inside Iran.

Apart from that the entire country is safe unlike our neighbors to the East. Where the national hobby is civil war or a beheading or two

We didn't have civil war. A brief insurgency at its peak, in 2008-09. The bomb blast and attack on soldiers/civilians occurred bcz CIA in Afghanistan helped, RAW, Mosad, NDS, to carry out attacks in paksitan. ISI defeated all of them, but we suffered a lot.

Even Iran could not stop insurgency in Pakistan. Kalbhusan Yadav, many BLA members were in Iran under India protection at Chabahar. @Foxtrot Alpha

 

[Dariush the Great]

Good if you are dealing with them well. As stated before, leakages occur. Even Mullah Omar was living near a US base in Afghanistan till his death, so intelligence failure occurs. However, in a closed society as Iran, this should be minimum as no foreigner shd have easy access, inside Iran.

Iran is a closed society? Anyone can get a free visa on arrival and enter Iran freely. List of countries is long. At the very least i expect you to pick up a book or read some basic information online before starting some discussion. Pity.

We didn't have civil war. A brief insurgency at its peak, in 2008-09. The bomb blast and attack on soldiers/civilians occurred bcz CIA in Afghanistan helped, RAW, Mosad, NDS, to carry out attacks in paksitan. ISI defeated all of them, but we suffered a lot.

Yes, you have some enemies to take care of. That was my point. Focus on your enemies. Not us.

Even Iran could not stop insurgency in Pakistan.

Am i reading it right? You are expecting Iran to stop insurgency inside Pakistan?

Kalbhusan Yadav, many BLA members were in Iran under India protection at Chabahar. @Foxtrot Alpha

That is just some conspiracy theory. Hard evidence has never been produced. Saying Iran actively promoted and allowed the said groups to act inside Iran is very different than Indians running some covert actions behind their official commercial duties at the Chahbahar port. You and others that repeat this are leaning on the former.

 

[Bouncer]

Dealing with the Shia population inside Afghanistan and Emirate's diplomatic relationship with Iran will be a major test of maturity for the Taliban. As of now, all actions by the group indicate that they have matured a lot since they last gained power in the 90s--their leadership is mature and is at least lending its ear to multiple outsiders like Qatar, Russia, China and of course Pakistan. And even though it is just a single incident but they way they handled border capture with Iran border says a lot about their intentions. So let's hope they focus on state building and avoid this low hanging and tempting fruit of violence with Iran and their own Shia population.

The other option will not be pleasant for anyone and everyone. IF, and a big IF, Pakistani establishment is involved with the IEA, they'll certainly not like the idea of throwing away two decades worth of hard work and sacrifices just to get more disturbance at the Western border. The whole idea of this entire saga was to get peace on the Western front. IF, and again a big IF, Iran were to become an existential threat to IEA, then the Pakistani establishment will have to act in ways to protect them. This will not be a pleasant for the Iranians, Afghans and of course the Pakistanis.

Everyone will have to watch out for major and obvious spoilers. KSA playing against Iran and India playing against Pakistan come to mind at this stage. And the Americans will of course be there.

 

[Goenitz]

Iran is a closed society? Anyone can get a free visa on arrival and enter Iran freely.

My point is not as free and open like Pak. Like, agents (under disguise) can setup business, come under UN banner, in the form of NGOs (like Shakeel afridi as a polio team worker), as diplomats bcz they have immunity, as tourists, as students, etc etc.

That was my point. Focus on your enemies. Not us

When on earth I said Iran is enemy. Islamabad knows very well who is enemy. Iran is certainly not.

You are expecting Iran to stop insurgency inside Pakistan?

I meant there bomb blast in pakistan occurs due to cross border terrorism. Mainly, its hub was in Afghanistan. Occasionally, as India was closer to Iran for sometime, India used Iran soil to attack Pakistan. The border is very porous. So, Iran neither could save its troops from jinduallah attack, nor prevent BLA from attacking Pakistan.

It is not a theory. The attackers on Gwadar PC came on boats.

Anyway, we should stick to the topic onwards.

 

[Maira La]

I think USA via KSA and India will try to create some sectarian conflict (and consequently proxy warfare) in the new Afghan emirate to make things complicated between Iran and Pakistan. KSA's influence over various Sunni groups can be problematic. I hope Pakistan and Iran's leaders are able to anticipate what's coming and work together to create a stable Afghanistan where foreign powers cannot easily intervene and get a foothold next to you guys for a second time.

 

[SalarHaqq]

My post was merely to highlight what the Taliban coming to power would mean for Iran, not to start the usual PDF arguments. But it was not unexpected, I guess.

I realize that. But independently of any PDF arguments, Iran has Sunni allies in Afghanistan, in particular among the Persian-speaking Tajiks. In Herat province, which to Iran is the most important area of Afghanistan, Iran never relied on any Shias but on Ismail Khan's Sunni Tajiks (or Persians, actually). I believe it's important to integrate this aspect into one's analyses of relations between Iran and Afghanistan. You specified that Iran wouldn't have reason to intervene as long as Shia Hazaras are safe, which is correct indeed. Likewise, the same holds true of Sunni Tajiks and in particular's Iran's friends among them. If they are oppressed, Iran would be just as likely to try and put a stop to it as in the case of the Shias.

 

[Blue In Green]

I realize that. But independently of any PDF arguments, Iran has Sunni allies in Afghanistan, in particular among the Persian-speaking Tajiks. In Herat province, which to Iran is the most important area of Afghanistan, Iran never relied on any Shias but on Ismail Khan's Sunni Tajiks (or Persians, actually). I believe it's important to integrate this aspect in analyses of relations between Iran and Afghanistan. You specified that Iran wouldn't have reason to intervene as long as Shia Hazaras are safe, which is correct indeed. Likewise, the same holds true of Sunni Tajiks and in particular's Iran's friends among them. If they are oppressed, Iran would be just as likely to try and put a stop to it as in the case of the Shias.

I for one am profoundly worried for the future of Iranian/Afghanistan relations, the Taliban will be a problem for Iran (sooner or later) no matter how anybody cuts it. Taliban will want to exert its dominion over everything and anything they can and this will eventually lead to a kinetic brawl over border, Shias, terrorist attacks, influence etc....

I'm not optimistic whatsoever about America's withdrawal outside of the fact that America now have one-less country to stage operations against Iran from.

 

[Stryker1982]

I for one am profoundly worried for the future of Iranian/Afghanistan relations, the Taliban will be a problem for Iran (sooner or later) no matter how anybody cuts it. Taliban will want to exert its dominion over everything and anything they can and this will eventually lead to a kinetic brawl over border, Shias, terrorist attacks, influence etc....

I'm not optimistic whatsoever about America's withdrawal outside of the fact that America now have one-less country to stage operations against Iran from.

I'd give them the benefit of the doubt for now. The Afghan government has been a thorn on the side of Iran for many years, not the Islamic Republic but Iran itself. They cut off the downstream rivers leading to Sistan & Baluchistan causing the rivers there to dry up on purpose, then they demanded Iran to provide them with free oil in order to get their own natural water back.

As long as Taliban does not cause any problems for Iran, I don't think Iran would have an issue with them. Iran and Taliban have been accused of having "behind-the-scenes" relations. If they do at some point in the future, then suffice to say that it would then be worth diverting funds into building 400 Karrars and handling the problem.

I'm not worried if this "behind the scenes" relations is true.

 

[Amin Bactria]

iam not sure if the deobandi radicals of taliban are worse than the pashtun nazis crownies america did put in place because they are pretty much fools both of them so for iran things pretty much remain the same it will have to strengthen the border from small time terrorist attacks compared to the big time terrorist america but at the same time iran can actually work probably better with the next government since it will be completely sanctioned iran will be a gate for them which isnt closed so i use to say with these things to just have patience and wait and see and its really the same i told many other people who kind of were freaking out about the sudden change which i expected actually to happen exactly like this
meanwhile the zionists cant come even close to gaza because iran armed gaza that well that even the transporters who are supposed to unload the tanks can be targeted long before they are even close so zionists tanks are basically history which also shows that unlike america who has no idea how to support allies iran does in fact know exactly what it does so the stone throwing palestinian kids are now upgraded to missile throwing tanks