What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

[SalarHaqq]

Iran will be happy that Americans have left. Iran won't intervene in Afghanistan in any way as long as the Taliban abide by or work towards the following conditions.

1) Peace and stability on the Afghan-Iran border. No cross border raids and no mass exodus of immigrants into Iran.

2) Taliban do not harm Iranian diplomats. In Herat Iranian diplomats were not harmed in any way, which is a good sign.

3) Taliban do not harm or persecute Hazara or Shia people of Afghanistan.

4) Taliban work towards ending the drug trade which is extremely harmful to Iran.

My post was merely to highlight what the Taliban coming to power would mean for Iran, not to start the usual PDF arguments. But it was not unexpected, I guess.

Another point you may want to note in case you haven't yet, is that divisions in Afghanistan have run along linguistic and so-called ethnic lines much rather than confessional ones. They've mostly opposed Pashtuns and Parsi-speakers (Tajiks, Hazaras, Aymaqs), with Uzbeks, Turkmens, Baluch and Nurestanis being other parties involved.

Not to mention the conflicts that have existed between Afghan Shias themselves based on "ethnic" differences, namely between the Sadat and Hazara.

In fact, only the so-called "I"SIS-K grouplet implanted by NATO has strong sectarianist motivations. It is part of the zio-American agenda to try and add a "Shia-Sunni" layer to the conflict, primarily as a tool against Iranian interests and security. But of course all sides and their regional foreign partners (Iran, Pakistan, China) stand to lose if the US succeeds.

So we should avoid these terms, as it would only benefit the common enemy. Also let's hope dialogue will be encouraged as a means to guarantee peace between Afghanistan's various communities.

This is a good short clip from Raefipoor on the subject:

 

[zartosht]

what will it mean for Iran? its anyobodies guess really. Iran probably has multiple contingencies planned based on taliban behaviour, and events unfolding.

it is impossible to predict afghanistan. nobody has ever been right about it.

this taliban seems to actually want international recognition and legitimacy. as such their leadership almost certainly has given Iran (and Russia/China) assurances that its territory will not be used to foster western/wahabi terrorists against them.

with that said, the Taliban is not really an organization as its a movement. anybody opposed to the afghan government called themselves the taliban. there is no way the taliban will stay united, or be able to effectively control their territory to prevent it from becoming a terrorist hub. ISIS for example has already infilitrated afghanistan (with almost certainly CIA assistance.)

my personal guess is: The taliban will fracture, and a similar free for all situation of the 90s early 2000s will play out. The US has been absolutely humiliated in afghanistan, there is no way they will allow a favorable geopolitical outcome for their 3 biggest enemies, without at least trying to play some kind of spoiler (ISIS).

the diffrence this time around is that Iran is a far FAAAR more powerful and geopolitically secure then they were in the 90s. Iran has more then enough capacity to build a wall of friendly militias supported by Iran on the border (like Iraq) if the shit really hits the fan in a worse case scenario...

 

[maverick1977]

Due to chinese interest in both countries, things will change. both will have a good relationship

 

[OldTwilight]

Well , now the possibility of Total war between Iran and USA getting lower day by day ... after spending 2 trillion dollars in Afghanistan ( in fact redistributing it among USA private company and USA allies ) and losing the war despite wining in every major military battle ; have no real result in Iraq and growing tension with China , It would be unlikely USA elite and people accept total confrontation with Iran , even if Iran test Atomic bomb ( which it should do and in my opinion it is A SHOULD ) ...

well , Taliban in consist of so many small groups with different ideology , from ISIS to moderators ... if moderators come to power , have fair internal policies , then lets see what they do ...

lets wait to see what they do , the ball is in Taliban field ...

 

[Stryker1982]

Well , now the possibility of Total war between Iran and USA getting lower day by day ... after spending 2 trillion dollars in Afghanistan ( in fact redistributing it among USA private company and USA allies ) and losing the war despite wining in every major military battle ; have no real result in Iraq and growing tension with China , It would be unlikely USA elite and people accept total confrontation with Iran , even if Iran test Atomic bomb ( which it should do and in my opinion it is A SHOULD ) ...

Seems like as the possibility of total war between Iran & USA become lower and lower, the possibility of total war between Iran & Israel grows everyday.

Bomb should be tested so that this this nuclear daftar can be closed like Pakistan and move on to achieve prosperity, deterrence and peace.

well , Taliban in consist of so many small groups with different ideology , from ISIS to moderators ... if moderators come to power , have fair internal policies , then lets see what they do ...

lets wait to see what they do , the ball is in Taliban field ...

Yeah, we will see. I despise these people regardless.

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

Well , now the possibility of Total war between Iran and USA getting lower day by day ... after spending 2 trillion dollars in Afghanistan ( in fact redistributing it among USA private company and USA allies ) and losing the war despite wining in every major military battle ; have no real result in Iraq and growing tension with China , It would be unlikely USA elite and people accept total confrontation with Iran , even if Iran test Atomic bomb ( which it should do and in my opinion it is A SHOULD ) ...

well , Taliban in consist of so many small groups with different ideology , from ISIS to moderators ... if moderators come to power , have fair internal policies , then lets see what they do ...

lets wait to see what they do , the ball is in Taliban field ...

The U.S is actually adding an extra $25 billion to there "defense" spending. That and the $300 million a day that they were spending in Afghanistan means that they have a lot of resources at there disposal for future wars and lets not kid ourselves. The U.S is addicted to war. I would not be surprised if they start a new war soon just so they can satisfy there blood lust.

 

[Stryker1982]

The U.S is actually adding an extra $25 billion to there "defense" spending. That and the $300 million a day that they were spending in Afghanistan means that they have a lot of resources at there disposal for future wars and lets not kid ourselves. The U.S is addicted to war. I would not be surprised if they start a new war soon just so they can satisfy there blood lust.

Despite economic conditions in Iran, they seem more desperate to sign a nuclear deal so they can shift their focus to China. Theirs alot of potential for making money in the indo-china and pacific region.

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

Despite economic conditions in Iran, they seem more desperate to sign a nuclear deal so they can shift their focus to China. Theirs alot of potential for making money in the indo-china and pacific region.

If they were "desperate to sign a nuclear deal" then they would just accept to go back to their original agreement and reinstate the JCPOA. Why do they insist on new conditions if they are so desperate?

 

[Whitefalcon90]

Support Taliban "ideologically" ? LOL you're not fooling anyone. Taliban was created by Pakistani intelligence service. Osama Bin Laden was also hiding in Pakistan.

The Americans have stated that Pakistan is giving Taliban sanctuary. When the Chinese admit that the leadership of the Taliban are in Pakistan, there's no doubt about it at all. Your denials aren't convincing anyone.

Your "right to intervene" ends on your border ? Says who ? You ? LOL I don't think I need to name all of Iran's allies or proxies in the region.

Turkey and Saudis have proxy groups all over the place but I don't see you complaining about them. Like I said Iran will do whatever it needs to do inside its borders and beyond. If it hurts your feelings then I'm sorry but that's just the way it is.

Come and try your shit in Afghanistan and we'll see how much influence Iran has. Your shit won't be tolerated in Afghanistan. This is Pakistans backyard and you are not welcome in it.

 

[El Sidd]

Absolutely nothing changes for Iran.

Iran's quest to head the global government goes ever so steady and strong.

 

[925boy]

Hopefully Afghanistan becomes the Switzerland of Asia.

Forgive me but are you trolling or serious??? LMAO. THis is just your imagination, because its not possible in reality.

 

[FuturePAF]

Forgive me but are you trolling or serious??? LMAO. THis is just your imagination, because its not possible in reality.

A little of both. The Swiss were the best fighters in Europe during the Middle Ages and to this day they guard the Pope. Every and I mean every Swiss citizen adult has a rifle and a uniform. They are a buffer state between some of the major European countries.

 

[925boy]

Why Iran have a duty to protect Afghanistan's Shia community and why do you think their presence in Afghanistan allow you to put pressure, influence and actions to "protect" them ?

Because your govt doesnt protect them? Any other questions?

Do Afghan Taliban led Afghan government will enjoy the same "responsibility and duty" to "protect" Sunni population of Iran ???

Yes, but thats in a hypothetical world you just imagined where Sunnis in Iran are being killed and treated inhumanely.

When will Iran come out of this Shia Sunni politics ?

When you stop imagining it and projecting your insecure Sunni-Shia imaginations onto Iran.
When will you guys stop meddling in other Muslim countries in the name of "protection" ?
Medling is a bogus term that only an emotional type likes to use - its called "foreign influence" - your country has it in Afghanistan, but when IRan uses it in the middle east its a problem? why you such a hypocrite?

Zainabiyun is no secret, what if Afghan Taliban or Pakistan create same sort of unit enrolling Iranian Sunnis ? Stop.

Lol..and you stop your own support of your own militia groups. Rememember - Iran and Pakistan BOTH actively support Islamic and militia groups in the world, that is just the truth. you're like pot calling kettle black. YOur mistake is that you assume Iran is as emotional and phobic as you are.

 

[RealNapster]

Because your govt doesnt protect them? Any other questions?

My government is not biased to any sect. It tries to protect all. It's not for Shias or for Sunnis. Overall security situation in region is bad. Some of that spill on Pakistani soil and Pakistani's get killed. We don't see if the deceased one was Shia or Sunni. Balochistan see almost daily deaths on the hands of BLA and BRA. Whose leadership is in Iran and Afghanistan. And most of the killed ones are Sunnis.

Yes, but thats in a hypothetical world you just imagined where Sunnis in Iran are being killed and treated inhumanely.

It is no hypothetical scenario. If Iran can not protect its nuclear scientists how can it protect random Sunnis. I have never seen someone treating Shias "inhumanely" in my country.

Lol..and you stop your own support of your own militia groups. Rememember - Iran and Pakistan BOTH actively support Islamic and militia groups in the world, that is just the truth

Pakistan support one single militia group called Afghan Taliban for strategic reasons.

1. To expell USA from this region (which even Iran wanted).

2. To have a favourable government in Afghanistan (which even Iran wanted).

3. To kill the base support for TTP, BLA and BRA who are protected in Qanadahar, khost and other parts of Afghanistan.


So you see. We support a militia. Iran on the other hand "creates and support" militias.


__________________________


I have already talked much on this issue to many of you. I don't want to spend a single more second explaining and teaching you guys about respect of sovereignty of an independent nation. I want Iran to stay where it is and that is among its borders. Don't try to be Imam Mehdi and going wild in the name of "protecting Shias". You first clear your own shit and stop the deadly protests and daily Mosad+CIA attacks.

 

[chinasun]

Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan have no major conflicts and should be resolved through regular exchanges and expanded cooperation.