For Iran, after dealing with the Russians on the S-300 deal, they would want to deal with only countries that won’t be pressured. Pakistan has may points it can be pressure in any arms deal with Iran, hence why they would go for an all Chinese option, if the Chinese are willing, and once the WS-10 is mature enough to the Iranian’s satisfaction.
They would go big and buy hundreds of J-10CE, replacing all but their F-14s and MiG-29s, and perhaps some of their F-4s
While the JF-17 is great value for money, with barter trade, they will try to get one type that they can go all in on, to decrease the chances the deal falls apart
I generally agree that Iran will likely order Russian jets and maybe even J-10. However, I still think that JF-17 has a strong advantage for one reason: TOT
I do not think Russia or China will give Iran TOT. However, I think Pakistan would strongly consider giving Iran TOT because it may actually end up being Pakistan that benefits the most from it. JF-17 is a solid plane but Iran is the master of reverse engineering. They have made their own drones and missiles. Admittedly fighters are Iran's weak spot and Iran has not had much success with building their own planes. This could be the opportunity both Pakistan and Iran have been waiting for. Pakistan trades JF-17 TOT for Iranian TOT of missiles and UAV's. Maybe JF-17 isn't as good as Su-35 or J-10, but if Iran can learn how to make their own fighters, it will be better than getting Russian or Chinese jets in the long term. Pakistan will be able to work together with Iran to improve JF-17 with integration of Iranian missile systems and create a lethal airplane with fusion of the best of Pakistani and Iranian technology. Pakistan's own missile and UAV programs will become much stronger with Iranian TOT and ultimately both countries will benefit. A Pakistani-Iranian military alliance will serve both countries well in countering India and Israel.
Honestly, I did have a rather long-form discussion about Iran possibly acquiring the JF-17 and what role it would play for the Iranian armed forces. Basically the JF-17 would replace the older outdated F-5 fleet and work in tandem with the F-4s and Su-24s Fencer strike air-craft in order to greatly expand Iranian strike capability across the broad being an overall welcomed addition to Iranian offensive capabilities. The biggest plus (depending on how a potential JF-17 deal works out) would be that since the JF-17 is relatively cheap, it can be made in great numbers and be used for different purposes if necessary although its primary purpose would be striking targets. When taking a holistic view, the JF-17 along with the indigenous cruise missile and ballistic missile production would be a "good" addition, depending on how you view it.
I would hope that if a potential JF-17 deal were to be struck, there would be a TOT and full (or at least partial) production in Iran, further more I would like to see if Iran-China-Pakistan can further advance the JF-17 into something bigger, stronger and more powerful. Akin to F-15E Strike Eagle if progression went far enough. What I would like to see as well is further Iranian cooperation with Pakistan and China in home-made defense efforts. Sincerely would be a nice thing to see honestly.
If you ask me though, I'm not against Iran acquiring the JF-17, I do think it has its merits.
Agree with this assessment
For Iran, after dealing with the Russians on the S-300 deal, they would want to deal with only countries that won’t be pressured. Pakistan has may points it can be pressure in any arms deal with Iran, hence why they would go for an all Chinese option, if the Chinese are willing, and once the WS-10 is mature enough to the Iranian’s satisfaction.
They would go big and buy hundreds of J-10CE, replacing all but their F-14s and MiG-29s, and perhaps some of their F-4s
While the JF-17 is great value for money, with barter trade, they will try to get one type that they can go all in on, to decrease the chances the deal falls apart
Pakistan could be pressured, however the benefit could outweigh the risk. Pakistan may be willing to take the heat of selling to Iran if they can get TOT in exchange from Iran. TOT is something that is hard to come by. There are not many countries besides Iran that would share missile TOT with Pakistan and there are not many countries besides Pakistan that would share fighter TOT with Iran. Pakistani jets are significantly better than Iranian jets and Iranian missiles are significantly better than Pakistani missiles. Both countries probably know they are each other's best bet, especially since their mutual enemies India and Israel are already cooperating militarily.
1. iran is far more broke than we still ever be
2. it's leverage on the saudis to keep Pakistan in its good "brotherly" books
3. iran is far too much of a turn coat given how they just caved our nuclear help & cooperated with india on chabahar
4. following upon #3, they can use our own Thunders against us
1. Broke in different ways. Iran has the money but needs sellers who aren't afraid of sanctions. Pakistan can buy from anyone except US but doesn't have the money.
2. What balance? It's not 50/50, Pakistan was so deep in Saudi/US camp to the extent that it may actually have damaged relations with Iran. Looks like IK realized that and is now trying to warm up relations with Iran.
3. India at Chabahar is way overblown out of proportion, Iran openly invited Pakistan to come to Chabahar and connect Iran with Pakistan, Gwadar, CPEC, and China. India at Chabahar is a non-issue.
4. Highly doubt this, especially in the case of TOT. If Pakistan exchanges JF-17 TOT for Iranian missile and UAV TOT, then you could also say Pakistan could use Iranian missiles against Iran. I highly doubt Iran would use JF-17 against Pakistan or Pakistan would use Iranian missiles and drones against Iran. Neither country is stupid enough to even think of this.
