Pakistan to handover Azad Kashmir To india

[Mega_Man]

Pakistan and India’s frontier tensions have entered a phase of low-intensity conflict marked by mutually accusatory allegations, even as both sides leverage political narratives for strategic ends. Islamabad has formally accused New Delhi of backing insurgent violence in resource-rich Balochistan—most recently citing a March 2025 hijacking of the Jaffar Express train that left 26 passengers dead—as part of a longstanding “proxy war” strategy. In Indian-administered Kashmir, a deadly ambush on tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, killed 26 visitors; Pakistani officials and commentators denounced it as a “false-flag” ploy to justify tougher security measures and international support for New Delhi’s policies. Despite these recent attacks, casualty figures are far lower than in earlier high-profile strikes such as the 2008 Mumbai assaults with 166 fatalities, or the 2019 Pulwama bombing that killed 44 CRPF personnel—reflecting both improved rapid-response capabilities and a shift in operational scale.


Compounding these security challenges, Pakistan’s economic vulnerability has deepened: its public debt exceeds 70 percent of GDP, with interest obligations consuming over half of government revenues, rendering Islamabad heavily reliant on IMF and World Bank bailouts to avert default . This financial dependency coincides with the United States’ strategic embrace of India—most notably through plans to ramp up military sales, including potential F-35 fighter-jet transfers—altering South Asia’s power calculus and intensifying pressure on Pakistan to conform to Washington’s regional agenda. Domestically, the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in January 2025—sentenced to 14 years over the Al-Qadir Trust graft case—has removed a prominent critic of any territorial compromises over Kashmir, fueling speculation that his incarceration serves to mute dissent amid escalating external pressures.

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Proxy Warfare in Balochistan​

Official Allegations​

Since 2016, Pakistan’s military leadership and Balochistan’s provincial government have blamed India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) for fomenting separatist violence, citing Kulbhushan Jadhav’s arrest as evidence of long-standing interference citeturn0search0. Islamabad maintains that RAW provides funding, arms, and training to the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) via Afghan bases, charges consistently denied by New Delhi.

The Jaffar Express Incident​

On March 24, 2025, BLA militants commandeered the Jaffar Express, taking roughly 400 hostages in a remote stretch of Balochistan rail line. Pakistani forces stormed the train after a 24-hour standoff; 26 passengers, mostly security personnel, were killed in the ambush, prompting renewed accusations of Indian sponsorship.

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The Pahalgam Attack and False-Flag Claims​

The April 22 Ambush​

Gunmen opened fire in Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley, killing 26 tourists—24 Indians and two foreigners—and wounding at least 20 more. India dispatched helicopters for medical evacuations and launched a manhunt for the attackers, whom Delhi branded as Islamist militants linked to “Kashmir Resistance” .

Pakistan’s Response​

Punjab Information Minister Azma Bokhari condemned the killings as an “unfortunate incident” but warned against any “misadventure under a false-flag pretext,” suggesting India might be manufacturing events to garner international sympathy and mask internal dissent . Analysts on Dunya News and other Pakistani outlets have echoed these assertions, labeling the Pahalgam attack a staged operation designed to delegitimize Kashmiri freedom movements.

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Comparative Analysis of Skirmish Intensity​

Incident	Date	Fatalities	Nature of Attack
Pahalgam tourist shooting	Apr 22, 2025	26	Single-day ambush by militants
Jaffar Express train hijacking	Mar 24, 2025	26	Hostage standoff by BLA
2008 Mumbai attacks	Nov 26–29, 2008	166	Multi-location terrorist siege
2019 Pulwama bombing	Feb 14, 2019	44	Suicide attack on CRPF convoy

Sources:
Pahalgam: The Guardian; Balochistan: AP and FT ; Mumbai: Reuters ; Pulwama: Reuters .

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Economic Leverage and US-India Alignment​

Deepening Debt Crisis​

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio soared above 70 percent in 2023, and IMF analysts warn that interest payments will absorb 50–60 percent of federal revenues this fiscal year—constraints that have forced Islamabad to seek a new $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility to stave off default.

Washington’s Military Pivot​

In February 2025, President Donald Trump announced plans to “increase military sales to India by many billions of dollars, paving the way to ultimately provide F-35 stealth fighters,” reflecting Washington’s strategic shift toward New Delhi in countering China’s rise citeturn4search1turn4search5. Indian opposition leaders have criticized the high cost of F-35s, while Russia offers its Su-57 jets under a technology-transfer arrangement, underscoring competing influences in New Delhi’s defense procurement.

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Political Silencing: The Imran Khan Factor​

Judicial Outcomes​

On January 17, 2025, an accountability court in Rawalpindi sentenced Imran Khan to 14 years for corruption in the Al-Qadir Trust case; his wife, Bushra Bibi, received seven years for related charges. Both deny wrongdoing and plan to appeal.

Impact on Kashmir Advocacy​

During his premiership (2018–22), Khan had galvanized international support for Kashmiri self-determination. His removal and ongoing incarceration have effectively silenced a potent domestic advocate, diminishing parliamentary and media scrutiny of any potential concessions over Azad Kashmir under external duress.

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Outlook​

While recent violence along the Pakistan-India divide has been less devastating than past confrontations, the underlying strategic competition persists—shaped equally by military posturing, economic vulnerability, and political maneuvers. As Pakistan navigates crippling debt and diplomatic isolation, and India deepens its alliance with Washington, the fate of Kashmir remains hostage to broader geopolitical and domestic power plays.

 

[jupiter2007]

Pakistani army instead of counter attacking terrorist in Pakistan, it’s keeping country weak by supporting corrupt politicians.