Was Russia enticed to invade Ukarine?

[Goenitz]

 

[sohail.ishaque]

I agree. Putin lost the plot. Even if he wins it will be a Pyrrhic victory.

What were his options then ????

 

[HRK]

Thanx bro. I think the US won't bother if it becomes an Afghan jihad like situation, as it will weak Russia and yhe fall out is for EU not for US .

Yea, it is Cuban crisis in reverse.

Sure, ultra nationalism will rise in war ridden countries as they seek glory in past, war and death. So, these things fuel to nationalism. The country who will receive the economic and refugee brunt, will also be rattled by nationalism. As it is easy to blame foreigners for their crisis.

I don't think the US can open another front to deviate Moscow. Ukraine is a core interest of Russia. Not only due to short missile flight time but the terrain is flat. Extremely easy for troops mobilisation.

Yes we must stay neutral. Thanx god out PM wars's stance always remianed pacifist.

Anyways thanx for the input. Read the OP for my perspective.

I forget from 2014 (Link of the posts 1, 2, 3) I was sensing the destabilization of Black Sea Region & wrote about it, but reading following lines of my own post was a surprise for me as I forgot about my postings related to this matter

Basically, it was a soft encroachment of EU and US in Russian backyard, which Russian retaliate in a bit harsh manner. If the future events occurs as expected, than US and EU might not respond militarily but would prefer a strategy somewhat similar to first Afghan war.

In that case, Turkey is the only Nation in the region having reliable defence apparatus in place, but currently suffering from internal political turmoil, to influence the future events in this region a strong, progressive and developing ally of the west is necessary.

just recall in 2016 unsuccessful military Coup was made against 'Islamist' Erdogan hope now coup against Erdogan make sense in bigger scheme of things.

Now coming to recent days I read in one of the news article that some official in Poland want be Pakistan in Europe against Russia Invasion of Ukraine (reference to Pakistan's role in Afghan Jihad) they are modern developing ally of West but the other issue is They are NOT STRONG in terms of Military

Post in 2015 specially this part

Analysis the 'current & expected' political events in Baltic & Black sea regions ...

In 2020 I wrote about it in bit little detail [Link], but I would like to recommend that to understand my posts related to this matter It is better IF you read the Theory of Geographical Pivot Of History try to understand it with understanding of geographical regions and recent regional political history.

In the last I would say IF I am reading the situation right then it's not just a single war but the Beginning of a Series of Wars.

 

[Goenitz]

I forget from 2014 (Link of the posts 1, 2, 3) I was sensing the destabilization of Black Sea Region & wrote about it, but reading following lines of my own post was a surprise for me as I forgot about my postings related to this matter

Sure.. You see Ukarine is very important for Russia safety. Any hostile goverment in Ukarine can disturb aceess to Black sea, disturb Russia 2 main exports (wheat and gas). Ukarine has 2nd largest reserve of gas in Europe. Also, it exports a lot of wheat.

Also, NATO ground troops can easily move inside Russia if they have strongfoothold in Ukarine. The land is flat from Ukarine side. (Not from Poland and Belarus is Russian ally.)

just recall in 2016 unsuccessful military Coup was made against 'Islamist' Erdogan hope now coup against Erdogan make sense in bigger scheme of things.

Yes, I guess US was part of it as one of its base was used. Anyway, it was so that they can have Turkey in their camps plus Turkey cannot interfer the US interests in Algeria and Syria. See example of Kazakhstan protests. The US wanted C.Asia after Afghanistan. So, creating instability in Russian neighbourhood, the US can control Russian influence.

Now coming to recent days I read in one of the news article that some official in Poland want be Pakistan in Europe against Russia Invasion of Ukraine (reference to Pakistan's role in Afghan Jihad)

In 2020 I wrote about it in bit little detail [Link], but I would like to recommend that to understand my posts related to this matter It is better IF you read the Theory of Geographical Pivot Of History try to understand it with understanding of geographical regions and recent regional political history.

That is intresting article (will ponder more later). However, I am aware of economic centre of gravity. A power must control it to earn profit. The Ottoman exploited it when they were on the crossroads of trade routes. That is why Eupopeans started seeking sea routes.

Lastly, the world trade mainly occurs through sea (80%) so land is important for buffer. One, cannot hold land w/o political settlement as the country needs tarde and peace to survive. It can't be ready for war for teh fear of losing land. So, Russia will give it back Ukarine but install a puppet regime.

 

[Goenitz]

@LeGenD @Corax
Yes, the main beneficary of this conflict is the US. Now, NATO will spend more on arms and buy from them. By keeping Russia busy in Ukarine, US can minimise Russian Navy threat to Japan and US fleet in Pacific. Nato was defragmenting, (france-Aus submarine issue) and aslo not spending much as Trump stated. Now, NATO will fund US defence industry.

 

[Oldman1]

Ukraine itself is enough to be enticed.

@LeGenD @Corax
Yes, the main beneficary of this conflict is the US. Now, NATO will spend more on arms and buy from them. By keeping Russia busy in Ukarine, US can minimise Russian Navy threat to Japan and US fleet in Pacific. Nato was defragmenting, (france-Aus submarine issue) and aslo not spending much as Trump stated. Now, NATO will fund US defence industry.

Are you saying the U.S. is the only one that benefits? I mean you look at the European countries and they all want to increase their defense budget and fire up their own military related companies.

 

[Aasimkhan]

No sir. If US fails to intervene in this situation. It will be a big blow to its credibility for Europeans. Ghosts of Soviet Union arent gone from their minds. USA was the long defender of europe against Communism. They might accidently free Europe from addiction of the Drug of US provided security Umbrella.
Germans must be very nervous right now.

Now that the Russians have finally decided to fight they will cause the fatal blow to US hegemony in Europe. It will be slow and painful fr Russia but US will surely get its Marching Orders from Europe. US is a dwindling super power. Russia will come out of the crises smarter and efficient. War removes inefficiency from a society, its a historically proven fact

 

[nahtanbob]

War removes inefficiency from a society, its a historically proven fact

 

[Goenitz]

 

[Broccoli]

What were his options then ????

Not invading in the first place would have been the right choice.

 

[LeGenD]

Now that the Russians have finally decided to fight they will cause the fatal blow to US hegemony in Europe. It will be slow and painful fr Russia but US will surely get its Marching Orders from Europe. US is a dwindling super power. Russia will come out of the crises smarter and efficient. War removes inefficiency from a society, its a historically proven fact

The fighting in Ukraine have not turned out as per expectations for Russians and Putin administration in particular. They failed to dethrone Zelenskyy administration and they continue to suffer losses in other sectors; this and this among other cases.

The perception that USA is in decline is downright misleading and leading to political miscalculations.

1. Russia miscalculated its options in Ukraine:

Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

Does someone know where Mexico stands on this conflict? Has Mexico put sanctions on Russia as well?

defence.pk

One member @tower9 said it right - "Putin lost the plot" in Europe. Now more countries want to join NATO, and much of Europe is scrambling to reduce its reliance on Russian gas supply lines; this process will take time of-course.

2. Imran Khan mistimed his visit to Russia. His government fell apart afterwards.

I am stating this as a word of caution to not underestimate USA.

They have eliminated those were deemed responsible for 9/11 in War On Terror, withstood COVID-19 fallout, and Elon Musk is reviving American industrial and innovative spirit lately. They also damaged Huawei to give competitive edge to their own companies in telecom sector.

WE must not be in hubris, and chart our moves forward carefully. WE must understand how global events are moving forward.

 

[VCheng]

I am stating this as a word of caution to not underestimate Americans.

They have eliminated those were deemed responsible for 9/11 in War On Terror, withstood COVID-19 fallout, and Elon Musk is reviving American industrial and innovative spirit lately. They also damaged Huawei to give competitive edge to their own companies in telecom sector.

WE must not be in hubris, and chart our moves forward carefully. WE must understand how global events are moving forward.

Not bad for an evil, lazy fat, good-for-nothing has-been empire, eh?

Ignore USA at your own peril, as you say. Or be good friends with China.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Region of Ukraine is ancestral land of Russia
Russia will take all of Ukraine as it is their ancestral land

Originally I thought it is about just having a port in region but it is more than that
Putin wants to have a legacy

 

[Goenitz]

The fighting in Ukraine have not turned out as per expectations for Russians and Putin administration in particular. They failed to dethrone Zelenskyy administration and they continue to suffer losses in other sectors; this and this among other cases.

The perception that USA is in decline is downright misleading and leading to political miscalculations.

1. Russia miscalculated its options in Ukraine:

Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

Does someone know where Mexico stands on this conflict? Has Mexico put sanctions on Russia as well?

defence.pk

One member @tower9 said it right - "Putin lost the plot" in Europe. Now more countries want to join NATO, and much of Europe is scrambling to reduce its reliance on Russian gas supply lines; this process will take time of-course.

2. Imran Khan mistimed his visit to Russia. His government fell apart afterwards.

I am stating this as a word of caution to not underestimate USA.

They have eliminated those were deemed responsible for 9/11 in War On Terror, withstood COVID-19 fallout, and Elon Musk is reviving American industrial and innovative spirit lately. They also damaged Huawei to give competitive edge to their own companies in telecom sector.

WE must not be in hubris, and chart our moves forward carefully. WE must understand how global events are moving forward.

You are right that global situation is changing and perhaps more will join NATO, unless a major event like capturing Kiev occurs or death of tehir president. Ukarine is lost anyway if not to Russia then to the NATO.

We must steer our position to global geo politics, siding the west but not openly. India hasn't. I guess, heavy spending on defence will triggre resistance in NATO also as mostly money will go to the US. Russia is in tatters now due to sanctions. BTW Biden was also eager for a regime change in Moscow

 

[jhungary]

Region of Ukraine is ancestral land of Russia
Russia will take all of Ukraine as it is their ancestral land

Originally I thought it is about just having a port in region but it is more than that
Putin wants to have a legacy

Putin is dying, and his legacy is that as big as Russia was, they can't even invade and conquer their smaller neighbour. You know that, he knows that, everyone knows that.