War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

[gambit]

When China declare an "exercise zone" environ Taiwan last year, all commercial stay far away. In modern naval warfare, you do not need that many ships for blockade. It is about an entire system.

Yes, you do.

U.S. blockade of Cuba in effect - UPI Archives

With tension continuing to build in the most critical situation since World War II, President Kennedy met with cabinet officials and his top-level military and intelligence advisers

www.upi.com

Twenty-five Russian ships, some believed to be carrying missiles capable of wrecking American cities, moved toward a brisling ring of U. S. warships and planes which were under orders to block by whatever means further aggressive arm deliveries to Fidel Castro.​

While civilian vessels will stay away from Taiwan if China create a naval blockade, if the US decide to run the blockade, the PLAN will need as many ships as it can deploy in order to make that blockade effective. The Soviet Union tried and decided to back off. While Cuba is three times larger than Taiwan, that does not mean the PLAN will be free as the USN was. A blockade is an act of war. When the US imposed a naval blockade on Cuba, Cuba was free to attack US ships or even US mainland. But Cuba did nothing because Cuba could do nothing. That is not the same for Taiwan. Taiwan can, and will, attack PLAN ships and if the US decide to run the blockade, the PLAN will face attacks from two fronts, not counting US subs.

While Taiwan can have thousands of harpoon, they can be useless. Everyone who serve in Navy knows that the background sea noise make ship very stealth. You need to pin point the ship to guide your harpoon.

I dont see how Taiwanese can do that.

You must be referring to multi-paths propagation. I explained that radar problem on this forum yrs ago.

Here is a post from 2009 I made about what you alluded to.

Brahmos Cruise Missile - Russia & India

This is a real gem of a video considering that the DRDO doesn't release these in public domain. Hats off to the guy who captured it during IMDS-2009 in Russia. [url= - Brahmos' tests[/url] Total orders for BrahMos till date is for 1500 pieces. Expect the number to rise when the Air Launched...

defence.pk

The latter test is suggestive that the radar system is highly capable of dealing with water related multi-paths propagation.​

Multipath propagation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For starter, multi-path propagation does not make ships 'stealth'. Whoever told you that misled you and I doubt that you ever served in a navy to know better.

What multi-paths propagation means is that a reflected radar signal can come from different sources.

This is what multi-paths propagation looks like.

Sea surface compounds multi-paths propagation because sea surface is always dynamic while land surface is mostly static. But as far as the Harpoon is concerned...

What is Sea Skimming? How Effective Sea-Skimmer Missiles? - Naval Post- Naval News and Information

Sea skimming is a technique many anti-ship missiles and some fighter or strike aircraft use to avoid radar, infrared detection.

navalpost.com

This is where it gets interesting: the missile can assess the sea state by itself. It measures the sea’s wavelength and the peak-to-peak height, estimates the sea state (usually from 1 to 9), and deduces the flight altitude at the best trade-off between stealth and probability of failure.​

The Harpoon, just like every other missiles that are designed to be used over open seas, takes multi-paths propagation into calculations. Reflected signals from multi-paths propagation have slightly different signal characteristics. The Harpoon is technologically sophisticated enough to distinguish reflected signals from a target against reflected signals from other sources.

So, when will the PLAN hire YOU as a consultant?

 

[Song Hong]

Yes, you do.

U.S. blockade of Cuba in effect - UPI Archives

With tension continuing to build in the most critical situation since World War II, President Kennedy met with cabinet officials and his top-level military and intelligence advisers

www.upi.com

Twenty-five Russian ships, some believed to be carrying missiles capable of wrecking American cities, moved toward a brisling ring of U. S. warships and planes which were under orders to block by whatever means further aggressive arm deliveries to Fidel Castro.​

While civilian vessels will stay away from Taiwan if China create a naval blockade, if the US decide to run the blockade, the PLAN will need as many ships as it can deploy in order to make that blockade effective. The Soviet Union tried and decided to back off. While Cuba is three times larger than Taiwan, that does not mean the PLAN will be free as the USN was. A blockade is an act of war. When the US imposed a naval blockade on Cuba, Cuba was free to attack US ships or even US mainland. But Cuba did nothing because Cuba could do nothing. That is not the same for Taiwan. Taiwan can, and will, attack PLAN ships and if the US decide to run the blockade, the PLAN will face attacks from two fronts, not counting US subs.


You must be referring to multi-paths propagation. I explained that radar problem on this forum yrs ago.

Here is a post from 2009 I made about what you alluded to.

Brahmos Cruise Missile - Russia & India

This is a real gem of a video considering that the DRDO doesn't release these in public domain. Hats off to the guy who captured it during IMDS-2009 in Russia. [url= - Brahmos' tests[/url] Total orders for BrahMos till date is for 1500 pieces. Expect the number to rise when the Air Launched...

defence.pk

The latter test is suggestive that the radar system is highly capable of dealing with water related multi-paths propagation.​

Multipath propagation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For starter, multi-path propagation does not make ships 'stealth'. Whoever told you that misled you and I doubt that you ever served in a navy to know better.

What multi-paths propagation means is that a reflected radar signal can come from different sources.

This is what multi-paths propagation looks like.

Sea surface compounds multi-paths propagation because sea surface is always dynamic while land surface is mostly static. But as far as the Harpoon is concerned...

What is Sea Skimming? How Effective Sea-Skimmer Missiles? - Naval Post- Naval News and Information

Sea skimming is a technique many anti-ship missiles and some fighter or strike aircraft use to avoid radar, infrared detection.

navalpost.com

This is where it gets interesting: the missile can assess the sea state by itself. It measures the sea’s wavelength and the peak-to-peak height, estimates the sea state (usually from 1 to 9), and deduces the flight altitude at the best trade-off between stealth and probability of failure.​

The Harpoon, just like every other missiles that are designed to be used over open seas, takes multi-paths propagation into calculations. Reflected signals from multi-paths propagation have slightly different signal characteristics. The Harpoon is technologically sophisticated enough to distinguish reflected signals from a target against reflected signals from other sources.

So, when will the PLAN hire YOU as a consultant?

I am working on radar. You call the problems in vessel detection radar clutters, which it is in reality some sort of multipath. We do not call it this way.

Marine clutter is a very difficult problem to solve. While airborne platform is a clean environment for radar. This is reason when modern destroyer vs F15 (without AWACS), the destroyer always win. This is not reveal by forum and magazine.

ship having more powerful radar, further detection range see aircraft flying in a clean environment.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Looks like someone who was banned came back with a new handle.

question is
whose handle is he riding this time ?

 

[Genghis khan1]

Thats a good question. Why would they? Fear of being next? It be asking why Poland is willing to help Ukraine? Or Pakistan willing to help Afghanistan during the 1980s.

Since when did Chinese made any claims on mainland Japan. Probability of China starting a war with Japan is zero, possibility of Japan getting annihilated between US-China thug of war is very high. Question again is, why would they in their right mind would chose to be part of this war.

 

[antonius123]

As per the past experiences, china will not be able to occupied the Taiwan.

China should learn from Ukraine and Russia war...... Taiwan will be getting fully support compared to what Ukraine is getting...

It wi be a disaster for china if they will try anything silly

Ukraine is close to Europe, hence Nato could support Ukraine silently through land route. But Taiwan is different case, not easy for NATO to support Taiwan.

 

[nahtanbob]

Have the PLA hired you as a consultant yet?

more like a master strategist

 

[FuturePAF]

We aren't in 1944 anymore, any big structure like that especially if you bring them in from China which is in the entire coverage of Land base or Ship base ROC Antiship missile, you probably wouldn't be able to tow it for 50 yard before tens if not hundred of missile greet it.




It wouldn't be effective if your enemy saturate their rocket and artillery rounds on you. Sure, 1 or 2 or 3 round on individual target you may be able to withstand with Iron Dome like. What if you have 4 to 5 incoming round or rocket hitting you. again, It will be a bottle neck on those beachhead because you can only land 1 wave of whatever force you can put on it, and then you will have to wait for the deliver platform to withdraw, and then move in with the new delivery platform, and then wait for those unit to be deploy, this process is hours at best, half a day at worse, You are going to get swamped by the defence.

Unless China has the absolute air superiority and can expand that well into the other side of the Taiwan Island, you are not going to be able to touch the artillery and rocket system on the other side of the island.





Doing that would have already alerted the Taiwanese an invasion is coming, I don't think Taiwan will not up its posture saying "Oh the Chinese is doing this for a while now, let's ignore it"

If you do that, the Taiwanese will mostly just going to put up a defensive posture and keep it.


Don't know what do you think Drone can do. You can use drone to look for target, that alone is a very resource intensive operation, and you cannot use it to look for target and then swamp it, there are going to be a few different operators using different asset and work together with it. AI Drone Swamp can possibly solve that, but no one is that advance. On the other hand, drone can be deal with by any number of ways, you can either jam it, soft kill it, hard kill it or even hack it and turn it against you (Saw all those during my time using drone) so this may not be as wonder as a weapon as you think.

It's impossible from the STAR chain to perform an area wise monitoring and have the mean to attack/inspect every traffic with that area, because if you want to enforce a large amount of area, you will have to disperse your ship, that open to attack, and if you want to concentrate on a certain area, then you won't be able to control the entire battlefield.

So would they be better off focusing on:
1. Achieving complete air superiority
2. Destroy everything that could be a possible threat via aerial and artillery (rocket or shell based) fire
3. Landing men and materiel via helicopter and tilt rotors by the hundreds of thousands.
4. Once a beachhead is secured, liberty lifters could bring in heavier resupply

An opening like hostomel airport but grander and with more coordination?

It’s the only way to maintain as much of the element of surprise and force protection, until these “landing crafts” hit the landing zones. Once this force is able to take at least one harbor, it can open it up to PLAN ships.

Btw, how did helicopter use play out in your war game?

 

[jhungary]

So would they be better off focusing on:
1. Achieving complete air superiority
2. Destroy everything that could be a possible threat via aerial and artillery (rocket or shell based) fire
3. Landing men and materiel via helicopter and tilt rotors by the hundreds of thousands.
4. Once a beachhead is secured, liberty lifters could bring in heavier resupply

An opening like hostomel airport but grander and with more coordination?

I can't share with you the finding of the wargame, because that would go after my contract (i want to keep my money and not get sued) but I would have to say this, apart from hoping US and allies will not engage in this war, or Taiwanese give up without a fight.

The only way China can theoretically win in an actual war scenario if US and allies were party of war is to have landed on the other side of Taiwan (east Coast) while putting the entire West Coast under siege. Otherwise, there are no way China can contain Taiwan if US and allies decided to go to war. You will need to work your way backwards to deny a chance for the US and Allies to gain a foothold on Taiwan. Otherwise if you are going blow to blow with US and its allies, China is going to lose, the only difference is how many Taiwanese and American they can drag them down with.

And to do that, you are either hoping for a miracle that US dropped the ball, or China build up significant advantage over Taiwan, US and Japan and to some extend selected few of US allies in the region. The problem is, the moment China attacks or would be attacking, US have a lot of reserve power that can transfer to Taiwan and that would have detrimental effect on Chinese progress on a long run, think about it, if US transfer every active article from their AMARG and naval mothball reserve to Taiwan before or at the onset of Chinese invasion, that is a significant chunk of combat power which would tilt the progress toward Taiwan at around 50-60 days mark. Basically if China cannot break thru in the first 50 days, they have no hope on conquering Taiwan.

 

[gambit]

So would they be better off focusing on:
1. Achieving complete air superiority
2. Destroy everything that could be a possible threat via aerial and artillery (rocket or shell based) fire
3. Landing men and materiel via helicopter and tilt rotors by the hundreds of thousands.
4. Once a beachhead is secured, liberty lifters could bring in heavier resupply

The current understanding is that strait weather gives China 2 two-weeks windows. If we use Desert Storm as example, that mean in each window, the bombardment must begin BEFORE the weather open up. When I got orders to deploy to DS, the Iraqi Air Force was already rendered %99 impotent, can the PLAAF achieve the same?

Air forces the world over uses the standard 4-ships formation and let us take an air-ground mission for example. Statistically speaking, if the defender take out just one of the 4 attackers, the target is considered survived, even if the other 3 attackers successfully delivered their ordnance, but most likely, the best scenario is that at least one more attacker will fail to deliver, so that leave a %50 deficit on the target. But even if none of the attackers were killed, if there are enough air defense to cause errors in delivery, that will make the target survivable. This is what happened in DS and why allied air forces had to return to many targets. The problem for China is that once that 2-weeks weather window closed, resupply and reinforcement of whatever PLA troops that landed on Taiwan will be more than difficult.

 

[silverox]

I was blocked by the Voice of America website,
The possible reason is
I suggest China and the US divide the Pacific Ocean after the war if China wins
Bounded by the International Date Line.
President Xi said that the earth is big enough to accommodate China and the United States
Voice of America immediately blocked all my speeches
Americans are really fragile.
i suggest americans learn a little sense of humor

 

[FuturePAF]

The current understanding is that strait weather gives China 2 two-weeks windows. If we use Desert Storm as example, that mean in each window, the bombardment must begin BEFORE the weather open up. When I got orders to deploy to DS, the Iraqi Air Force was already rendered %99 impotent, can the PLAAF achieve the same?

Air forces the world over uses the standard 4-ships formation and let us take an air-ground mission for example. Statistically speaking, if the defender take out just one of the 4 attackers, the target is considered survived, even if the other 3 attackers successfully delivered their ordnance, but most likely, the best scenario is that at least one more attacker will fail to deliver, so that leave a %50 deficit on the target. But even if none of the attackers were killed, if there are enough air defense to cause errors in delivery, that will make the target survivable. This is what happened in DS and why allied air forces had to return to many targets. The problem for China is that once that 2-weeks weather window closed, resupply and reinforcement of whatever PLA troops that landed on Taiwan will be more than difficult.

I think the windows were in April and October if I’m not mistaken

I can't share with you the finding of the wargame, because that would go after my contract (i want to keep my money and not get sued) but I would have to say this, apart from hoping US and allies will not engage in this war, or Taiwanese give up without a fight.

The only way China can theoretically win in an actual war scenario if US and allies were party of war is to have landed on the other side of Taiwan (east Coast) while putting the entire West Coast under siege. Otherwise, there are no way China can contain Taiwan if US and allies decided to go to war. You will need to work your way backwards to deny a chance for the US and Allies to gain a foothold on Taiwan. Otherwise if you are going blow to blow with US and its allies, China is going to lose, the only difference is how many Taiwanese and American they can drag them down with.

And to do that, you are either hoping for a miracle that US dropped the ball, or China build up significant advantage over Taiwan, US and Japan and to some extend selected few of US allies in the region. The problem is, the moment China attacks or would be attacking, US have a lot of reserve power that can transfer to Taiwan and that would have detrimental effect on Chinese progress on a long run, think about it, if US transfer every active article from their AMARG and naval mothball reserve to Taiwan before or at the onset of Chinese invasion, that is a significant chunk of combat power which would tilt the progress toward Taiwan at around 50-60 days mark. Basically if China cannot break thru in the first 50 days, they have no hope on conquering Taiwan.

That makes sense, similar to the Afghan strategy of taking the north before sweeping the west and south to take the capital in 2021.

 

[jhungary]

I think the windows were in April and October if I’m not mistaken


That makes sense, similar to the Afghan strategy of taking the north before sweeping the west and south to take the capital in 2021.

Well, it's more like the first gulf war, we will have to hook left and cut off the retreat route from the Iraqi and then slowly digest the force defending Kuwait and Iraq border.

The problem again is that US have the capability to double the size of ROC Air Force and Navy in a very short period of time. There are about 200 F-16 that require minimal work to put on the frontline, and there are already some 150 Viper in Taiwan, And the US can effectively double Taiwan Frigate Force with the 8 OHP class that are pending foreign sales.

They can't take time and engage Taiwan step by step, it will take way longer than then can withstand.

 

[FuturePAF]

Well, it's more like the first gulf war, we will have to hook left and cut off the retreat route from the Iraqi and then slowly digest the force defending Kuwait and Iraq border.

The problem again is that US have the capability to double the size of ROC Air Force and Navy in a very short period of time. There are about 200 F-16 that require minimal work to put on the frontline, and there are already some 150 Viper in Taiwan, And the US can effectively double Taiwan Frigate Force with the 8 OHP class that are pending foreign sales.

They can't take time and engage Taiwan step by step, it will take way longer than then can withstand.

Your talking about the battle of 73 Eastings or the “highway of death”?

 

[jhungary]

Your talking about the battle of 73 Eastings or the “highway of death”?

73 Easting

 

[MH.Yang]

Any reason why Taiwan does not have its own nuclear deterrent? It is not like they don't have resources or know how. (They have power nuclear reactors). If they get nukes, war, at least the full-blown kind that was described, will become obsolete, and we don't have to read these simulations.

If USA wants to break the nuclear non-proliferation agreement, we don't mind.

We can also let all countries and organizations that hate the USA possess nuclear weapons.