The dragon and the elephant's uneasy tango
However, to be fair, Wen is probably the only Chinese leader who has so far been able to imbue the Sino-Indian relationship with some degree of warmth.
Neeta Lal
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indulged in some endearing rhetoric - calling each other 'very dear friends' etc - during the former's three-day state sojourn to New Delhi recently.
Even so, nobody was fooled into having great expectations from the much-vaunted summitry between the two Asian giants. Even though the visit transpired at a critical time, when fresh fissures have developed in bilateral relations, the dialogue failed miserably to address key strategic issues and take the relationship to the next level.
Frustratingly, most key diplomatic issues were left unresolved. For instance, earlier this year, India had suspended military exchanges with China after the latter refused a visa to a senior Indian army officer from Jammu and Kashmir. Beijing retaliated by issuing stapled visas to Kashmiris, a move that Delhi saw as a blatant violation of its sovereignty. The practice continues to date.
Other concerns - like the damming of the Brahmaputra River by the Chinese and their increased involvement in building infrastructure for ***************** Kashmir has further blighted Sino-Indian relations. In fact, Chinese investments in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir-to the tune of $12-15 billion -are considered illegal by India. Not to mention the fact that Beijing's overt flirtations with Islamabad has been disquieting for Delhi. Then there is Beijing's claim over entire Arunachal Pradesh which remains the single largest roadblock to resolving border issues.
In other words, even though Wen's visit could have helped smoothen at least a few of the bilateral creases, it didn't. On the contrary, the Premier left from Delhi straight for Islamabad, leaving South Bloc smarting under the growing Sino-Pakistani strategic nexus. And no sooner did he land there, than wires were abuzz with the photos of the beaming leader with Pak diplomats, racking up mega deals worth $ 24 billion! India, eat your heart out!
Even if India overlooked China's Pak connection, the day could have been saved had China addressed at least a few of India's core concerns. Instead, there was a paradigm shift in the dialogue process and what acquired salience was commerce. Accompanied by a delegation of over 300 leading Chinese business leaders, the largest group ever to accompany a Chinese premier to India, Wen sewed up trade deals worth 16 billion.
Overall, China signed 47 memorandums of understanding (MOU) with Indian firms ranging from telecom to power equipment setting a new bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2015, even though India currently suffers from a trade deficit of $30 billion.
Was commerce a deliberate camouflage then, wonder policy watchers, to deflect from vital strategic issues? And just to show concrete deliverables at the trip's end, China thought mega deals would serve the purpose?
Experts rubbish this theory. According to a Ministry of External Affairs official, if the larger political environment is not conducive, there are limits to what bilateral economic exchanges can achieve. This ought to have been a clear message to both India and China to revive talks to resolve their border dispute that climaxed in the 1962 war. China claims 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh and occupies around 38,000 sq km in Jammu and Kashmir, which New Delhi claims as its own. There is another 5,200 sq km in ***************** Kashmir that Pakistan ceded to China in a 1963 pact.
However, rather than address this protracted issue-one of the world's oldest border disputes-Wen made it clear that he was in India on a "journey of friendship and cooperation". When India articulated its concerns over terror emanating from China's all-weather friend Pakistan, Beijing sought more time to reverse its stapled visa policy even though it could have given the issue a quiet burial, as Delhi had hoped.
Given Pakistan's continued recalcitrance towards India, terror featured prominently in the talks for the first time. Interestingly, India did manage to extract support-albeit ambiguous-from China for its bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. The joint statement read, "China attaches great importance to India's status in international affairs as a large developing country, understands and supports India's aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations, including in the Security Council."
However, to be fair, Wen is probably the only Chinese leader who has so far been able to imbue the Sino-Indian relationship with some degree of warmth. His last visit to India in 2005 produced the only negotiated document so far between the two sides to resolve the boundary dispute which has blighted Sino-Indian relations since the sixties.
That visit also helped China become India's largest trading partner as trade grew exponentially-from $2.3 billion in 2001-02 to $42.4 billion in 2009-10. Beijing and Delhi have also made friendly overtures to rally developing countries at multilateral platforms such as the World Trade Organization and the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit.
Be that as it may, Wen's recent visit did present both countries with an opportunity to evaluate the current relations and navigate the future trajectory of events. On the contrary, the summit has left India even more wary of China's motives. Wen remarked that the world has enough space for both to exist and flourish. He now needs to demonstrably follow his words by action on the ground.
Neeta Lal is a New Delhi-based senior journalist.