Vietnam Defence Forum

[Silent Knight]

I know most Viet members wanted a Clinton victory and of course we don't know yet what Trump will do, but Clinton represented the war party in USA and only conflict can come when these people are in power. She represents the neocons, the Pentagon crazies that want conflict with Russia and just about the darkest forces in USA. She represents the American empire and with people like that, that pushes China into aggression mode and we already saw the result of that in SCS, so maybe now there is an opportunity to scale tensions down and avoid conflict. We'll see.

Actually I rooted for Trump

 

[Carlosa]

bottomless hatred? Why? What's the point? Yes, there are conflicts between the two countries, like the South China Sea, or trade, so we may not like each other. But not like each other does not mean hate, needless to say bottomless hate.

Using nuke to against VN is not an option to us, under any circumstances. Nuke can not bring us victory and peace, but drag us to endless troubles. That's very clear.



The top three requirements of a modern power network is: stability, stability, and stability. But unfortunately, this is not what could be offered by solar. So solar could be a good addition, e.g. to own a 5~10% share of your overall power supply capacity. But to make solar as the mainstream power resource means the crash of your power network. Even god can not save it.

Cost advantage of solar? are you sure? China's experience is solar power cost per kwh is 2.5x of coal power cost. But remember, China is the No.1 country in terms of solar power adoption, also the No.1 country of solar panel production, so the 2.5x price premium already reflected the savings from scale effect and high localization rate. That means, to Vietnam, the cost of solar power could only be higher than that to China.

BTW, a modern coal power plant or nuclear plant could be built in very compact size. So for a given capacity power plant, the land consumption of coal/nuclear plant is far smaller than what required by solar or wind power. You need to leave sufficient space between wind towers or solar panels, don't you? But does Vietnam has that much useless land (e.g. desert)??

Electric storage systems from Tesla. That sounds very cool, right? But do you know the so-called electric storage system is just another name of battery to make the audience feel more comfortable? You think the production and recycle of battery is pollution-free?

Electrical storage is not just batteries, there are new technologies that are starting to get used to store electricity in power plants that are unrelated to batteries. That whole issue of electrical storage was the one main reason why green energy could not go mainstream in the past (can produce during the day or when there is wind, but what about at night or when there is no wind?). With electrical storage you'll have your stability.

The latest generations of solar cells are cheaper and more efficient and are competitive with coal. The next few years will have many breakthroughs. This is a technology that is about to explode.

There is plenty of land and territorial sea for lots of green power plants in Vietnam, that would not be an issue.
Coal power plants also take quite a bit of space. They need large areas to store the coal, large areas to disposed of the waste coal, they often need ports to be built just to supply coal to the plant, etc, etc.

Actually I rooted for Trump

Me too. Clinton is extremely corrupted and she was a sure ticket to a war with Russia.

 

[GS Zhou]

Electrical storage is not just batteries, there are new technologies that are starting to get used to store electricity in power plants that are unrelated to batteries. That whole issue of electrical storage was the one main reason why green energy could not go mainstream in the past (can produce during the day or when there is wind, but what about at night or when there is no wind?). With electrical storage you'll have your stability.

The latest generations of solar cells are cheaper and more efficient and are competitive with coal. The next few years will have many breakthroughs. This is a technology that is about to explode.

There is plenty of land and territorial sea for lots of green power plants in Vietnam, that would not be an issue.
Coal power plants also take quite a bit of space. They need large areas to store the coal, large areas to disposed of the waste coal, they often need ports to be built just to supply coal to the plant, etc, etc.

Unfortunately, battery is still the most reliable / cost-effective technology route of electricity storage in today. That's why the Tesla Powerwall is nothing special but batteries.

Future is a very charming word, because we believe all dreams could be realized in the future. But unless you believe Vietnam can own the most developed energy storage technology in the near future, otherwise you'd better pray for a more realistic route for the power sector of Vietnam.

 

[Carlosa]

Unfortunately, battery is still the most reliable / cost-effective technology route of electricity storage in today. That's why the Tesla Powerwall is nothing special but batteries.

Future is a very charming word, because we believe all dreams could be realized in the future. But unless you believe Vietnam can own the most developed energy storage technology in the near future, otherwise you'd better pray for a more realistic route for the power sector of Vietnam.

We'll see what happens. In the end is all about money and decision making, including incentives for green power.

 

[Viet]

bottomless hatred? Why? What's the point? Yes, there are conflicts between the two countries, like the South China Sea, or trade, so we may not like each other. But not like each other does not mean hate, needless to say bottomless hate.

Using nuke to against VN is not an option to us, under any circumstances. Nuke can not bring us victory and peace, but drag us to endless troubles. That's very clear.

I have reasons for my doubt judging based upon your history of hostilities on Vietnam.

 

[GS Zhou]

I have reasons for my doubt judging based upon your history of hostilities on Vietnam.

never mind, it is your right.

Enjoy the weekend.

 

[Viet]

never mind, it is your right.

Enjoy the weekend.

thanks, you too

Actually I rooted for Trump

really?

whatever his policy may be, by the way he once tried everything to avoid as soldier being sent to Vietnam, one thing is certain, he loves women. posting here some pics. some viet girl beauties paid visits to his office in New York, when he had not the idea to become the president of the most power country the world has ever seen

Doan Thi Kim Hong

Vo Hoang Yen

Xuan Thao

 

[Viet]

The problem is that the government and most people in Vietnam don't have much of a clue about environmental protection, people trow trash in the streets and beaches like if they are a dumping ground. As the government said itself during the fish die offs in the central coast, the environmental regulations and impact assessments of industrial projects were just a formality, basically, they didn't care about it, companies are free to dump and pollute as much as they want. There are lots of horror stories.

The government follows the same failed policies that China did decades ago and they learned nothing about the consequences of them. As long as that attitude doesn't change, they are going to continue with coal and disregard renewable energy. The only renewable energy projects that come is because of foreign investors interest and efforts, they don't get any help or promotion from the government as its typical in most other countries. At least China is now promoting renewable energy big time.

Other than for military purposes, nuclear power its a very risky proposition and there is no solution yet about what to do with the nuclear waste generated by the reactors. Lets not forget Fukushima. Who wants to live near a nuclear plant?

There is an small nuclear reactor for research purposes in Dalat and a new, much bigger one its going to get built. That might be enough for military purposes and to occupy many of the nuclear engineers that are currently getting trained.

Ah you know I myself was very surprised on how our people throw trash everywhere, not mentioning how foreigners react to such bad behavior with disgust. Naja it is a long way to go.

green energy is like vegetable for a guy who loves steaks. He despises it. Until he becomes fat and heart attack, then he rethinks it maybe worth eating more vegetable less meat

 

[Carlosa]

Ah you know I myself was very surprised on how our people throw trash everywhere, not mentioning how foreigners react to such bad behavior with disgust. Naja it is a long way to go.

green energy is like vegetable for a guy who loves steaks. He despises it. Until he becomes fat and heart attack, then he rethinks it maybe worth eating more vegetable less meat

Ha ha very funny but very true.

 

[Viet]

For the first time ever in the 2,500 year long Vietnam/China relationship, a Chinese coast guard vessel pays a peaceful visit to port in the North of Vietnam. Welcome.

 

[Viet]

Not a revolution but small improvements for the mass of T-54 main battle tanks, still forming the backbone of Vietnam ground army

target finder for 100 mm main cannon

tank automatic wired control. No more driver taking the small seat, using muscle power necessary

If I understand correctly, that is a new computer aided system of maps for military regions.

 

[Viet]

Trump Victory Alarms Vietnam



Vietnam Right Now, News Analysis, Posted: Nov 11, 2016


The shock waves from Donald Trump’s victory are only just beginning to reverberate around the world. For Vietnam, the surprise win of the maverick property developer and reality tv star is deeply unsettling and threatens severe strategic consequences.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objectives remained vague to the point of incoherence during the long election campaign, but his instincts are unmistakably protectionist and isolationist.

Vietnam, which saw much advantage in the “pivot to Asia”, announced by Hillary Clinton in 2011, must now face the likelihood that the initiative is dead in the water.

Hanoi sought and achieved closer political, military and economic ties with a US administration eager to strengthen its presence in the region.

Mr Trump, with his “America First” rhetoric, seems much less interested in helping friends and allies hold the line against China’s expansionism.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, already wilting on the vine, is likely to be an early victim of the Trump administration.

Vietnam was the country with most to gain from the TPP, gaining tariff free access to the world’s largest market, and tying Hanoi into a community of American friends and partners.

Ratification of the pact came to be seen as a key test of America’s commitment to Asia

Its demise will be celebrated by China as a strategic victory, and signal to Beijing’s neighbours that the US no longer has the will or consistency to protect them in the long term.

Dangerously destabilising

Mr Trump stated on the campaign trail that Asian countries would have to take responsibility for their own defence.

“If somebody attacks Japan, we have to immediately go and start World War III, OK? If we get attacked, Japan doesn’t have to help us. Somehow, that doesn’t sound so fair,” he said at a rally late last year.

He also indicated that South Korea would have to pay far more for its own defence.

The then candidate even suggested that Japan might have to go nuclear if that was necessary to guarantee its defence against China and North Korea.

Such an approach, if implemented, would be dangerously destabilising for the entire Asia Pacific region and beyond.

Mr Trump was much given to spontaneous temporising on the campaign trail, and no-one knows what a Trump foreign policy will look like in practice.

It is possible, some analysts say, that he will build up the US military and aim to show strength in the face of China’s economic and military growth. It is not a scenario that countries such as Vietnam can rely on.

Liberal use of tariffs

The candidate was unpredictable, sensationalist and contradictory on the campaign trail.

But he was extremely consistent, to the point of monomania, about one thing: he wanted to become president to look after the interests of ordinary Americans.

He said tariffs would be used liberally to give the US the advantage back after a series of dubious trade deals.

Export-led developing economies such as Vietnam can expect little consideration from such a leader.

Pro-democracy activists and human rights campaigners in Vietnam also have reason for alarm at the US election result.

Mr Trump has spoken admiringly of authoritarian rulers, most notably Vladimir Putin.

He is unlikely to take much interest in the struggle of civil society activists for a more open society in Vietnam – a struggle of little interest to the hard pressed blue collar workers in rust belt states that propelled him to power.

 

[Aqsuperman]

Training of VPA self propelled artillery of the mechanized division. Composed of 122mm and 152mm tracked vehicle

.

 

[Carlosa]

Trump Victory Alarms Vietnam



Vietnam Right Now, News Analysis, Posted: Nov 11, 2016


The shock waves from Donald Trump’s victory are only just beginning to reverberate around the world. For Vietnam, the surprise win of the maverick property developer and reality tv star is deeply unsettling and threatens severe strategic consequences.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objectives remained vague to the point of incoherence during the long election campaign, but his instincts are unmistakably protectionist and isolationist.

Vietnam, which saw much advantage in the “pivot to Asia”, announced by Hillary Clinton in 2011, must now face the likelihood that the initiative is dead in the water.

Hanoi sought and achieved closer political, military and economic ties with a US administration eager to strengthen its presence in the region.

Mr Trump, with his “America First” rhetoric, seems much less interested in helping friends and allies hold the line against China’s expansionism.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, already wilting on the vine, is likely to be an early victim of the Trump administration.

Vietnam was the country with most to gain from the TPP, gaining tariff free access to the world’s largest market, and tying Hanoi into a community of American friends and partners.

Ratification of the pact came to be seen as a key test of America’s commitment to Asia

Its demise will be celebrated by China as a strategic victory, and signal to Beijing’s neighbours that the US no longer has the will or consistency to protect them in the long term.

Dangerously destabilising

Mr Trump stated on the campaign trail that Asian countries would have to take responsibility for their own defence.

“If somebody attacks Japan, we have to immediately go and start World War III, OK? If we get attacked, Japan doesn’t have to help us. Somehow, that doesn’t sound so fair,” he said at a rally late last year.

He also indicated that South Korea would have to pay far more for its own defence.

The then candidate even suggested that Japan might have to go nuclear if that was necessary to guarantee its defence against China and North Korea.

Such an approach, if implemented, would be dangerously destabilising for the entire Asia Pacific region and beyond.

Mr Trump was much given to spontaneous temporising on the campaign trail, and no-one knows what a Trump foreign policy will look like in practice.

It is possible, some analysts say, that he will build up the US military and aim to show strength in the face of China’s economic and military growth. It is not a scenario that countries such as Vietnam can rely on.

Liberal use of tariffs

The candidate was unpredictable, sensationalist and contradictory on the campaign trail.

But he was extremely consistent, to the point of monomania, about one thing: he wanted to become president to look after the interests of ordinary Americans.

He said tariffs would be used liberally to give the US the advantage back after a series of dubious trade deals.

Export-led developing economies such as Vietnam can expect little consideration from such a leader.

Pro-democracy activists and human rights campaigners in Vietnam also have reason for alarm at the US election result.

Mr Trump has spoken admiringly of authoritarian rulers, most notably Vladimir Putin.

He is unlikely to take much interest in the struggle of civil society activists for a more open society in Vietnam – a struggle of little interest to the hard pressed blue collar workers in rust belt states that propelled him to power.

My take on Trump and Vietnam / China is a bit different and the first insights that are already coming out about what he plans to do show that we should not think too much about many things that he said during the elections.

The loss of TPP will definitely be a loss for Vietnam, but in the geostrategic / military arena it will be different than what many people expect.

I think he will not be soft on China, but he will come from a very different perspective and that makes the whole difference. He will not come from the perspective that we are the big empire that wants to be in control of the planet and don't want any competitors. I think he will come from a more realistic, fair perspective as he said: "we want to get along with all those willing to get along with us". He is capable of working out agreements with Russia and China that respect everybody's interests in a reasonable manner, but if China is not willing to compromise or wants to take the US for a ride, he will not accept that and there will be conflict.

The Chinton / Obama administration with their aggressive actions to promote US empire created chaos in the middle east, moved towards conflict with Russia and pushed Russia into the arms of China, something that is not good for Vietnam. That stance also prompted China to move aggressively in SCS and as a result, we had the chinese land reclamation and other actions.

Trump will neutralised all that and restore the US / Russia relation to a more normal condition. He already reassured Korea about the alliance and his confidants said that he wants Japan to take a more active role against China. Trump is not a pushover or someone that you can play games with. He is very good at making deals and can negotiate and compromised a lot, but good luck if you try to screw him or renege on your agreements.

In trade he will be tough. Can't predict what will happen there.

@Silent Knight What's your take on this?

 

[vtnsx]

thanks, you too


really?

whatever his policy may be, by the way he once tried everything to avoid as soldier being sent to Vietnam, one thing is certain, he loves women. posting here some pics. some viet girl beauties paid visits to his office in New York, when he had not the idea to become the president of the most power country the world has ever seen

Doan Thi Kim Hong

Vo Hoang Yen

Xuan Thao

I guess Trump cannot keep his eyes to himself. He is probably thinking if he can grab her by the p***. LOL!

I did wanted Trump to win too. HIllary lies too much.

My take on Trump and Vietnam / China is a bit different and the first insights that are already coming out about what he plans to do show that we should not think too much about many things that he said during the elections.

The loss of TPP will definitely be a loss for Vietnam, but in the geostrategic / military arena it will be different than what many people expect.

I think he will not be soft on China, but he will come from a very different perspective and that makes the whole difference. He will not come from the perspective that we are the big empire that wants to be in control of the planet and don't want any competitors. I think he will come from a more realistic, fair perspective as he said: "we want to get along with all those willing to get along with us". He is capable of working out agreements with Russia and China that respect everybody's interests in a reasonable manner, but if China is not willing to compromise or wants to take the US for a ride, he will not accept that and there will be conflict.

The Chinton / Obama administration with their aggressive actions to promote US empire created chaos in the middle east, moved towards conflict with Russia and pushed Russia into the arms of China, something that is not good for Vietnam. That stance also prompted China to move aggressively in SCS and as a result, we had the chinese land reclamation and other actions.

Trump will neutralised all that and restore the US / Russia relation to a more normal condition. He already reassured Korea about the alliance and his confidants said that he wants Japan to take a more active role against China. Trump is not a pushover or someone that you can play games with. He is very good at making deals and can negotiate and compromised a lot, but good luck if you try to screw him or renege on your agreements.

In trade he will be tough. Can't predict what will happen there.

@Silent Knight What's your take on this?

TPP is safe. Trump only does things that benefited the Americans. He's a real estate investor so he doesn't understand the Global trade deals that well and Congress won't allow him to make abrupt changes without their approvals.

But I'm pretty sure the Vietnamese know that TPP is no the only option. TPP can be dead but it doesn't mean that VIetnam cannot have free trade deals directly with US, Canada and EU, etc.

Sooner or later, Trump will realize that TPP is required to counter BRICS. I know Trump is a very competitive man. He is a strategist unlike Killary, part Laywer, only good at ripping off people. In life, three types of people I don't trust. First is a lawyer, then doctor/dentist then politician.