Vietnam Defence Forum

[GS Zhou]

at the end phase of the war, both France and America considered nuclear weapons to secure the victory. I think it is not a secret, both have much more powerful conventional armed forces. I don´t know whether China had ever considered nuclear weapon in the war against Vietnam.

China to use nuclear weapons in the war against Vietnam? why? we were not that crazy and desperate. we are not that stupid, because nuclear weapons could not really help us to win the war, but drag us to a bigger bigger trouble.

 

[Viet]

Viet, I like your patriotic attitude. However, possibly you have little connection with the real situation in Vietnam.Therefore, sometimes I feel you conclude a problem too soon based on limited and bias information from the Internet.

This forum is just for fun and for people to say what they cannot say in the real life. Do not be too emotional and take everything on this forum seriously. Even the information with links can be fake, let alone what people say here.

bro I would appreciate if you tell me something I don't know yet. If you think this VN military thread is useless, then you can stay away. if you think the whole forum is waste of time, you have the option to leave. nobody is forcing anything on you.

yes, I admit make conclusion on my own. I think that is legal, isn´t it? you never make conclusion? if yes, you make it based on full access and non bias information from the Internet, I assume. anyway, have fun and enjoy your time here bro.

 

[Carlosa]

I think this news does not reflect the reality. No Vietnam media post news from the government that wants to cancel nuclear plants completely. I think it will be again a delay because of government's lack of money. A lot of investment have been made, from site clearance to infrastructure building to crew training. it makes economically politically no sense to scrap all. In addition we would upset our partners America, Russia, Japan and Korea.

Besides we should maintain a nuclear option. In case someone runs amok threatening us with nuclear weapon.

Yes, it is possible. What they are doing with coal based power plants is really crazy and its going to create an environmental disaster.

Here is another article:

Roundup: Vietnam Discussing Halt Of 1st Nuclear Powerplant Project
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/wn/newsworld.php?id=1300913
HANOI, Nov 10 (Bernama) -- In a suddenly-adjusted agenda, Vietnamese lawmakers on Thursday discussed a proposal on reviewing to halt the project of Vietnam's first nuclear power plant in southern coastal Ninh Thuan province, China's Xinhua news agency reports.

The proposal sparked lively debates across the country among officials, experts as well as netizens.

Speaking on local Tuoi Tre (Youth) online newspaper on Thursday, Duong Quang Thanh, chairman of the Member Council of Vietnam's power monopoly EVN, cited the national electricity planning recently approved by Vietnamese government as saying that from now till 2030, there will be no nuclear power plant.

Instead, many power sources will be developed to meet up with power demand of Vietnam, said Thanh.

According to new calculation, Vietnam's annual electricity demand growth will stand at around 11 per cent during 2016-2020 period and at 7 to 8 per cent during 2021 to 2030 period; much lower than that of 17 to 20 per cent as calculated in 2009, when the policy of Ninh Thuan nuclear power plant project was adopted, said Thanh.

At present, the country's electricity demand growth remains low, while the total supply by domestic and import sources are enough to ensure socio-economic development.

As a result, the costly investment into nuclear power will make it unable to compete with other energy sources in economic term, Thanh explained.

Meanwhile, in an interview with local VNExpress online newspaper on Thursday, Le Hong Tinh, vice chairman of Vietnam's National Assembly (NA) Committee on Science-Technology and Environment said reviewing to halt the project at the moment is "timely and necessary."

According to Tinh, the nuclear power project is no longer feasible.

Following an earlier plan, the electricity price would be around US$4.9cents each kWh while it has risen to over US$8cents each kWh now, said Tinh.

"In addition, in the context that Vietnam's public debts are approaching the ceiling, if we continue to invest into a big project, there is a possibility that the public debts will keep increasing. It's better to stop now rather than stop after implementation," Tinh told VNexpress.

Echoing Tinh, Nguyen Minh Due, standing member of the Executive Committee for the Vietnam Energy Association and vice president of Energy Science Council, said "Nuclear power plant not only requires big investment but also is quite sensitive to the environment. The project has been in pre-feasibility stage with not much investment, so halting it at the moment is reasonable."

However, the insider said stopping the project may affect future electricity supply.He urged the government to develop other power plants that can make up the loss, as well as boost the development of renewable energy such as wind power to create more supply sources.

In November 2009, some 77.48 per cent of then Vietnamese legislators agreed on policy of investing Ninh Thuan nuclear power project. The project included two plants with capacity of around 2,000 megawatt each.

After group and hall discussions, Vietnamese NA is expected to adopt a resolution on stop the project on Nov. 22.

-- BERNAMA

 

[Viet]

Yes, it is possible. What they are doing with coal based power plants is really crazy and its going to create an environmental disaster.

Here is another article:

Roundup: Vietnam Discussing Halt Of 1st Nuclear Powerplant Project
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/wn/newsworld.php?id=1300913
HANOI, Nov 10 (Bernama) -- In a suddenly-adjusted agenda, Vietnamese lawmakers on Thursday discussed a proposal on reviewing to halt the project of Vietnam's first nuclear power plant in southern coastal Ninh Thuan province, China's Xinhua news agency reports.

The proposal sparked lively debates across the country among officials, experts as well as netizens.

Speaking on local Tuoi Tre (Youth) online newspaper on Thursday, Duong Quang Thanh, chairman of the Member Council of Vietnam's power monopoly EVN, cited the national electricity planning recently approved by Vietnamese government as saying that from now till 2030, there will be no nuclear power plant.

Instead, many power sources will be developed to meet up with power demand of Vietnam, said Thanh.

According to new calculation, Vietnam's annual electricity demand growth will stand at around 11 per cent during 2016-2020 period and at 7 to 8 per cent during 2021 to 2030 period; much lower than that of 17 to 20 per cent as calculated in 2009, when the policy of Ninh Thuan nuclear power plant project was adopted, said Thanh.

At present, the country's electricity demand growth remains low, while the total supply by domestic and import sources are enough to ensure socio-economic development.

As a result, the costly investment into nuclear power will make it unable to compete with other energy sources in economic term, Thanh explained.

Meanwhile, in an interview with local VNExpress online newspaper on Thursday, Le Hong Tinh, vice chairman of Vietnam's National Assembly (NA) Committee on Science-Technology and Environment said reviewing to halt the project at the moment is "timely and necessary."

According to Tinh, the nuclear power project is no longer feasible.

Following an earlier plan, the electricity price would be around US$4.9cents each kWh while it has risen to over US$8cents each kWh now, said Tinh.

"In addition, in the context that Vietnam's public debts are approaching the ceiling, if we continue to invest into a big project, there is a possibility that the public debts will keep increasing. It's better to stop now rather than stop after implementation," Tinh told VNexpress.

Echoing Tinh, Nguyen Minh Due, standing member of the Executive Committee for the Vietnam Energy Association and vice president of Energy Science Council, said "Nuclear power plant not only requires big investment but also is quite sensitive to the environment. The project has been in pre-feasibility stage with not much investment, so halting it at the moment is reasonable."

However, the insider said stopping the project may affect future electricity supply.He urged the government to develop other power plants that can make up the loss, as well as boost the development of renewable energy such as wind power to create more supply sources.

In November 2009, some 77.48 per cent of then Vietnamese legislators agreed on policy of investing Ninh Thuan nuclear power project. The project included two plants with capacity of around 2,000 megawatt each.

After group and hall discussions, Vietnamese NA is expected to adopt a resolution on stop the project on Nov. 22.

-- BERNAMA

Yes that is true. If we go down the path of construction of massive coal fired power plants all over the country, the sky will become more dark than blue. Vietnam must increase the percentage of renewable energy as wind and solar. I wonder much of government plans of importing zig millions of coals annually. That would cost us billions of dollars from our tinny forex reserves. If one considers, the world has 900 billions tons of coal reserves but we alone have 50 billions tons reserves in the north. And we haven't explored coal in the central and southern Vietnam yet. We have enough coal.

Back to nuclear power. I hope the parliament rejects the proposed cancellation and gives the plan a chance later to be realized.

 

[AViet]

I know about this about one month ago. Probably the cancellation is due to political reason, not technical.

 

[Aqsuperman]

Well whatever the final decision is, many students and workers that already finished the courses on various nuclear related subjects will be temporary unemployed. In the worst case, they will move to another country seeking proper jobs and there we lost another class of well educated people, nothing new i guess.

Short range air defense units are the primary cover force for mobile ground troops. So far we have batteries of 23mm, 37mm, 57mm and a mix of SPAA for this job.

 

[Carlosa]

Yes that is true. If we go down the path of construction of massive coal fired power plants all over the country, the sky will become more dark than blue. Vietnam must increase the percentage of renewable energy as wind and solar. I wonder much of government plans of importing zig millions of coals annually. That would cost us billions of dollars from our tinny forex reserves. If one considers, the world has 900 billions tons of coal reserves but we alone have 50 billions tons reserves in the north. And we haven't explored coal in the central and southern Vietnam yet. We have enough coal.

Back to nuclear power. I hope the parliament rejects the proposed cancellation and gives the plan a chance later to be realized.

The problem is that the government and most people in Vietnam don't have much of a clue about environmental protection, people trow trash in the streets and beaches like if they are a dumping ground. As the government said itself during the fish die offs in the central coast, the environmental regulations and impact assessments of industrial projects were just a formality, basically, they didn't care about it, companies are free to dump and pollute as much as they want. There are lots of horror stories.

The government follows the same failed policies that China did decades ago and they learned nothing about the consequences of them. As long as that attitude doesn't change, they are going to continue with coal and disregard renewable energy. The only renewable energy projects that come is because of foreign investors interest and efforts, they don't get any help or promotion from the government as its typical in most other countries. At least China is now promoting renewable energy big time.

Other than for military purposes, nuclear power its a very risky proposition and there is no solution yet about what to do with the nuclear waste generated by the reactors. Lets not forget Fukushima. Who wants to live near a nuclear plant?

There is an small nuclear reactor for research purposes in Dalat and a new, much bigger one its going to get built. That might be enough for military purposes and to occupy many of the nuclear engineers that are currently getting trained.

 

[Carlosa]

Vietnam ditches nuclear power plans
http://www.dw.com/en/vietnam-ditches-nuclear-power-plans/a-36338419

Vietnam has decided to scrap plans to build two nuclear power plants, which would have been the first in southeast Asia. Hydropower and coal are set to remain dominant in the fast-industrializing country.




Vietnam's ruling communist party decided Thursday that two planned plants in the southern region of Ninh Thuan will not feature in the country's future energy mix, state-controlled media reported.

MP Duong Quang Thanh, chairman of the Electricity Committee in the National Assembly, confirmed that no budget for the plants - which were approved in 2008 with a combined capacity of 4,000 megawatts (MW) - had been included in a long-term energy plan approved by Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the DTI news website reported.

Le Hong Tinh, vice chairman of the National Assembly's Science, Technology and Environment Committee, said a key reason for the government's decision was that the price for the plants had doubled to $18 billion (about 16.5 billion euros).


The National Assembly is expected to ratify the decision later this month, state-controlled Tuoi Tre newspaper reported.

Ambitious plans

In June 2010, Vietnam announced plans to build 14 nuclear reactors at eight sites across five provinces by 2030. They were expected to produce 15 gigawatts (GW) of power, or about 11 percent of the nation's energy mix totaling 112 GW. Four more units were added to the first two sites in Ninh Thuan, then six more at six sites.

Westinghouse (Japan/US), GE (US), EDF (France), KEPCO (South Korea) and CGNPC (China) all also expressed interest in constructing future nuclear power projects, as part of an ambitious strategy to increase the nuclear share to 20-25 percent by 2050.

Power production is currently dominated by hydropower with a share of 41 percent in electricity generation, followed by natural gas with 31 percent and coal with 26 percent.

Russian and Japanese firms out in the cold

Construction of the first plant - Ninh Thuan 1 - had been set to start in 2014 with know-how from Russia's state-run nuclear firm Rosatom, but the government pushed construction back to 2020 due to post-Fukashima safety concerns.

The 4 X 1,000 Megawatt (MW) plant was to have been built by Atomstroyexport, a subsidiary of Rosatom.

Russia's Ministry of Finance agreed to finance at least 85 percent of the plant and in November 2011 an agreement for an $8 billion loan was signed with the Russian government's state export credit bureau.

A contract to build the second plant was given to companies from Japan. In October 2010, an intergovernmental agreement with Japan was signed for construction of a second nuclear power plant - Ninh Thuan 2 - at Vinh Hai also in Ninh Thuan Province, with its two reactors to come on line in 2024-25. The Japanese consortium - International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan (JINED) would have constructed the 4 X 1,000 MW site.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), agreed to finance up to 85 percent of the total cost.

When the plants were approved in 2009 the government projected power demand growth of 17-20 percent per year, but that has had to be revised to 11 percent for 2016-2020 and 7-8 percent in 2021-2030.

In 2015, Vietnam's Central Statistics Office estimated that electricity demand would continue to grow at an annual rate of 10-12 percent, rising from 169.8 terawatthours (TWh) in 2015 to 615.2 TWh by 2030. In its 2013 Country Nuclear Power Profile, submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vietnam forecast a 2015 generation capacity of a about 40 gigawatts, increasing to nearly 140 GW to meet projected demand in 2030.

Duong Quang Thanh, CEO of state-run Electricity of Vietnam Group - which was to cover the remaining costs of the plants - said they were "not economically viable because of other cheaper sources of power." It also cited "slowing demand for electricity and the declining price of other sources of energy" as reasons behind the decision.

"Nuclear power, therefore, cannot compete economically with other sources of energy," Thanh said.

 

[GS Zhou]

The problem is that the government and most people in Vietnam don't have much of a clue about environmental protection, people trow trash in the streets and beaches like if they are a dumping ground. As the government said itself during the fish die offs in the central coast, the environmental regulations and impact assessments of industrial projects were just a formality, basically, they didn't care about it, companies are free to dump and pollute as much as they want. There are lots of horror stories.

The government follows the same failed policies that China did decades ago and they learned nothing about the consequences of them. As long as that attitude doesn't change, they are going to continue with coal and disregard renewable energy. The only renewable energy projects that come is because of foreign investors interest and efforts, they don't get any help or promotion from the government as its typical in most other countries. At least China is now promoting renewable energy big time.

Other than for military purposes, nuclear power its a very risky proposition and there is no solution yet about what to do with the nuclear waste generated by the reactors. Lets not forget Fukushima. Who wants to live near a nuclear plant?

There is an small nuclear reactor for research purposes in Dalat and a new, much bigger one its going to get built. That might be enough for military purposes and to occupy many of the nuclear engineers that are currently getting trained.

there is NO perfect solution in electricity supply. Environmental protection, CAPEX requirement, electricity supply stability, these key indicators are usually contradictory to each other among different power plant types. If you complain coal power plant is too dirty, then you have to embrace nuclear power plant. There is no pain-free option.

 

[Carlosa]

there is NO perfect solution in electricity supply. Environmental protection, CAPEX requirement, electricity supply stability, these key indicators are usually contradictory to each other among different power plant types. If you complain coal power plant is too dirty, then you have to embrace nuclear power plant. There is no pain-free option.

No perfect solution at the moment, but some solutions are a lot more perfect than others. Its all about having the foresight to choose and promote the most environmental friendly approach to power generation.

When the world is getting rid of coal power, it makes no sense for Vietnam to go into coal big time as it is doing now and particularly after the recent Paris agreement. At the moment Vietnam has virtually no green power generation. Recent and upcoming advances in green power technology provide a viable alternative to coal and nuclear. Just look at what Ellon Musk just unveiled for home power generation. The new developments in electrical storage technology (for home, industrial and power plant use) is what was needed to make renewable energy competitive. Solar is already cheaper than coal. Vietnam is a country that is blessed with resources for solar and wind power. What is needed is leadership willing to make the right decisions.

 

[Carlosa]

Vietnam To Turn Its Back On Massive Pacific Rim Trade Pact After Trump Victory
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2016/11/10/with-trump-victory-vietnam-turns-its-back-on-massive-pacific-rim-trade-pact/#353b874c640e

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a U.S.-led trade pact encompassing 40% of the world economy, isn’t “confirmed dead,” to borrow language from an equity research firm in Hanoi. But unless it passes the U.S. Congress before Donald Trump takes office in January, the tariff-cutting agreement is just taking up space in some ICU before undertakers arrive. Vietnam knows the trade deal is unlikely to take shape despite signatures by 12 member nations in February. Trump doesn’t like it and his Republican Party controls Congress.

So Vietnamese leaders have started looking instead toward a series of two-way free-trade deals to sustain their fast-growing $193.6 billion economy that depends heavily on exports.

Workers on a production line at the Garment 10 Company in the outskirts of Hanoi. (HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images)

“The sad news for Vietnam is that trade liberalization is unlikely to be high on the agenda, whatever the new [U.S.] president’s cabinet and policy implementation will be,” French investment bank Natixis said in a statement Thursday. “And thus, Vietnam will have to mourn the death of the highly-anticipated Trans Pacific Partnership.”

The deal known usually as TPP would have raised the Vietnamese GDP by 11%, estimates Louie Nguyen, editor and founder of the news website VietnamAdvisors. Multinationals would move more factories into Vietnam if the pact took effect, he adds. And increasingly wealthy and adventurous consumers in Vietnam may also hold onto more of their money as 89% of the public supports TPP and its “collapse of TPP could take the wind out of the sail of Vietnamese consumers,” Nguyen says. A lot of the spending power comes from creation of jobs that follow expansion of factories, which export stuff from coffee to smartphones.

Yet officials in Hanoi probably won’t hang out too long at the funeral.

Even when polls tipped Trump to lose the U.S. election, Vietnam was hedging bets about the TPP in case the U.S. Congress missed its February 2018 deadline to ratify the deal under whatever president. The TPP effectively requires U.S. ratification to reach 85% of the trade bloc’s combined GDP, a rule for final implementation. A steering committee headed by the Vietnamese deputy prime minister decided in August instead of pushing for ratification in late 2016 to keep monitoring what other countries do with the deal. Vietnam’s next chance to ratify it would be early next year.

The Southeast Asian country has meanwhile signed and implemented a raft of two-way free trade agreements that could offset losses to exports from lack of a TPP. Among the confirmed trading partners are Australia, Chile, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the European Union. Vietnam’s trade negotiators are likely to keep channeling their efforts into bilateral deals rather than the Pacific Rim bloc. And those ties “are enough for an economy with nominal GDP of roughly $200 billion to capture growth opportunities in the years to come,” Hanoi-based equity market research firm SSI Research said in a note Thursday.

 

[Viet]

China to use nuclear weapons in the war against Vietnam? why? we were not that crazy and desperate. we are not that stupid, because nuclear weapons could not really help us to win the war, but drag us to a bigger bigger trouble.

I have my doubt. but anyway I hope you will always remain calm and reasonable under all circumstances despite your bottomless hatred on Vietnam from time to time.

 

[Silent Knight]

Basically, the 927th FR has finished transferring their Su-30MK2V fleet to the home base.

You heard it first from ComCom.
https://www.facebook.com/WarComissa...3591.213961285393506/1079252315531061/?type=3

 

[GS Zhou]

I have my doubt. but anyway I hope you will always remain calm and reasonable under all circumstances despite your bottomless hatred on Vietnam from time to time.

bottomless hatred? Why? What's the point? Yes, there are conflicts between the two countries, like the South China Sea, or trade, so we may not like each other. But not like each other does not mean hate, needless to say bottomless hate.

Using nuke to against VN is not an option to us, under any circumstances. Nuke can not bring us victory and peace, but drag us to endless troubles. That's very clear.

No perfect solution at the moment, but some solutions are a lot more perfect than others. Its all about having the foresight to choose and promote the most environmental friendly approach to power generation.

When the world is getting rid of coal power, it makes no sense for Vietnam to go into coal big time as it is doing now and particularly after the recent Paris agreement. At the moment Vietnam has virtually no green power generation. Recent and upcoming advances in green power technology provide a viable alternative to coal and nuclear. Just look at what Ellon Musk just unveiled for home power generation. The new developments in electrical storage technology (for home, industrial and power plant use) is what was needed to make renewable energy competitive. Solar is already cheaper than coal. Vietnam is a country that is blessed with resources for solar and wind power. What is needed is leadership willing to make the right decisions.

The top three requirements of a modern power network is: stability, stability, and stability. But unfortunately, this is not what could be offered by solar. So solar could be a good addition, e.g. to own a 5~10% share of your overall power supply capacity. But to make solar as the mainstream power resource means the crash of your power network. Even god can not save it.

Cost advantage of solar? are you sure? China's experience is solar power cost per kwh is 2.5x of coal power cost. But remember, China is the No.1 country in terms of solar power adoption, also the No.1 country of solar panel production, so the 2.5x price premium already reflected the savings from scale effect and high localization rate. That means, to Vietnam, the cost of solar power could only be higher than that to China.

BTW, a modern coal power plant or nuclear plant could be built in very compact size. So for a given capacity power plant, the land consumption of coal/nuclear plant is far smaller than what required by solar or wind power. You need to leave sufficient space between wind towers or solar panels, don't you? But does Vietnam has that much useless land (e.g. desert)??

Electric storage systems from Tesla. That sounds very cool, right? But do you know the so-called electric storage system is just another name of battery to make the audience feel more comfortable? You think the production and recycle of battery is pollution-free?

 

[Carlosa]

bottomless hatred? Why? What's the point? Yes, there are conflicts between the two countries, like the South China Sea, or trade, so we may not like each other. But not like each other does not mean hate, needless to say bottomless hate.

Using nuke to against VN is not an option to us, under any circumstances. Nuke can not bring us victory and peace, but drag us to endless troubles. That's very clear.

Relax you two. There are new circumstances at play now and there is an opening for better relations between Vietnam and China and it appears like the SCS situation will have less tension and even that nobody will expect that the countries involved will lessen their claims, we might see a return to the former status quo where nobody creates actions that change facts on the ground. Supposedly, Duterte was promised that there would be no reclamation on Scarborough Shoal and now PH coast guards are patrolling the area unmolested.

I know most Viet members wanted a Clinton victory and of course we don't know yet what Trump will do, but Clinton represented the war party in USA and only conflict can come when these people are in power. She represents the neocons, the Pentagon crazies that want conflict with Russia and just about the darkest forces in USA. She represents the American empire and with people like that, that pushes China into aggression mode and we already saw the result of that in SCS, so maybe now there is an opportunity to scale tensions down and avoid conflict. We'll see.