@Black Flag I had a theory for a while that US is actually no taking a position on the chinese claims and not doing anything other than talking because they are waiting for a favorable ruling from the tribunal and then having the legal backing of it, they will get very serious with china and officially reject the chinese claims and actually take action against them. I don't know, specially with wimp Obama, but I think its very possible. What do you guys think?
Well, that's a full spread, I hope VN had been busy ordering stuff.
exactly, the resolution H.Res.714 of the US Congress clearly says: only the international law (UNCLOS, etc..) prevails. Nothing else. Not invented "historical facts". Least lie from Chinese mouth.
I don´t think the chinese will start a war, but if it happens we are ready.
Yes, VN's positional note basically supports the Philippines' case against China. It was expected actually, as VN had previously announced that it might raise a similar case of its own against China. And the Philippines said that they were willing to send their legal experts to VN to share their analysis.
What I find most surprising was how the US made their analysis public.
Before, we were discussing how if the Philippines were to win its arbitration case, it might trigger the US-Phil MDT if China ignore the ruling. We were saying how the US must either intervene and fulfil its MDT obligation or it can ignore its obligation because an intervention might escalate into something too big.
Well, the fact that the US have just released its analysis that fundamentally reject all of China's SCS claims show that, to me, they will intervene and not just to turn the blind eye. Because if the US were to leave some space so that they could later turn the blind eye, they wouldn't have released this analysis which condemns the Chinese claims in such a direct manner. It would just be too embarrassing to issue such a strong objection now, only to later on ignore the Philippines ruling.
So either the US is issuing a warning for China that they will intervene later on, or they are pressuring China to tone down its tough stance and start negotiating properly now. However, I don't think China will tone down their voice and compromise.
But China is feeling the pressure. I've already suggested earlier that their land reclamation was a sign of desperation. Now, the fact that they have just made a big effort to issue their very detailed positional note to defend their stance enforces my belief that they are desperate and under pressure.
Before they were just totally ignoring the Philippines case and made some small informal statements here and there. They were feeling confident that the tribunal cannot touch them. Now they have just release their own +90 points analysis to defend themselves. They ain't feeling confident anymore.
Anyway, you guys coming over to DF?