Vietnam a Growing Threat to Taiwan’s South China Sea Claims: Report

[Aepsilons]

Lesson is greed can cause you to lose everything.

I agree. Most importantly, what the war taught us, unfortunately it was only through our unconditional defeat, is this -- never again to allow military style fascism to control Japan. This is why Japan must remain a representative democracy, this is why it is important to have an independent judiciary to declare acts of the National Diet or even by the Executive as Constitutional or Not. It was only through our subjugation by the allies that -- the Democracy we have now in place -- is necessary.

Never again shall we suffer the insufferable of the past.

Well, lets hope our Taiwanese brethens strengthen their hand in SCS. Their greatest problem would be the projection of their limited forces into SCS from much, much greater distance then Vietnam, also, if Vietnam does make a move & take the island, how will Uncle Sam handle the situation? The other equation is, us, I don't believe the PLA will not move if Vietnam move, espacially against Taiwan. Also, with the SCS case filed to The Hague, it would be self-sabotage if Vietnam starts shooting first.

Its not an issue. Vietnam does not have the military or economic resources to engage in a war with Taiwan. In fact, as a signatory of the 2002 Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea, Vietnam required to maintain status quo and to refrain from militant adventurism. If she abrogates this, then this will weaken the fragile peace in that region.

Vietnamese ultranationalists , many of whom are in PDF, may want a war with China or Taiwan, but on the ground -- this is not so. A war with Taiwan would encourage the intervention of the PLAN. And as much as I have profound respect for Vietnam and Vietnamese people, they cannot win a naval war with the PLAN. They would be annihilated.

Status quo will remain.

believe it or not, after 1894 chinese actually wanted to learn from jp(sun yat sen...), about how to industrialize...at least some hope for east asian as a race against white people...
jp invasion ruined it forever...

It was equally a curse for us as well. Trust me, it did not benefit Japan , as a whole, and neither did it benefit China. 2nd Sino Japanese War was a curse for both our sides. -_- "

 

[Yizhi]

It was equally a curse for us as well. Trust me, it did not benefit Japan , as a whole, and neither did it benefit China. 2nd Sino Japanese War was a curse for both our sides. -_- "

i do kinda feel sorry for jp that this past still haunt you FOR REAL.
i mean chinese can move on because china's rise so we sort of stop worry about jp, though butt hurt every time some jp moron right-wing politician say or do sth stupid...history thing is useful politically for chinese to bash jp from time to time(or as educational material--- if you dont study/work hard, even jp can conquer you....). but in reality it doesn't really matter.
yet for jp, history makes it difficult to have REAL trust with both china and korea...which is basically ALL your neighbors...plus china is growing like crazy, korea is fiercely competing with jp...left you only option US which is on the other side of pacific...
if i'm japanese, i would really be terrified...

 

[Aepsilons]

i do kinda feel sorry for jp that this past still haunt you FOR REAL.
i mean chinese can move on because china's rise so we sort of stop worry about jp, though butt hurt every time some jp moron right-wing politician say or do sth stupid...history thing is useful politically for chinese to bash jp from time to time(or as educational material--- if you dont study/work hard, even jp can conquer you....). but in reality it doesn't really matter.
yet for jp, history makes it difficult to have REAL trust with both china and korea...which is basically ALL your neighbors...plus china is growing like crazy, korea is fiercely competing with jp...left you only option US which is on the other side of pacific...
if i'm japanese, i would really be terrified...

As much as I am an optimist, I do not think I will live to see complete friendship between Japanese and Chinese Government or for this stain of our past to be forgotten. Perhaps, in say 2-3 centuries, maybe the memory and pain of our mistake would have been forgotten. I do empathize for Chinese people and members here and their reaction whenever someone tries to poke fun about Nanjing, or Manchuria or what not. I mean, its not something that is even beneficial to any of us (Chinese or Japanese) to think about. Like i said before, one word describes this thing -- Shame. Shame for us. And if you know Japanese culture and mindset -- anything that is shameful -- we prefer not to talk about as much. It is a great shame, great embarrassment.

It suck really because our generation, my generation, has to deal with the past failures of our grandparents' generation. Or the decision making of a long gone, long dead government. I guess, the sins of our grandfathers ...remain to haunt us.

-_-''

 

[mike2000]

at th time i don't think KMT actually control northeast...nor had the ability to...it was basically an indian style central gov..
but you have to admit KMT was useful after 1937 (official jp invasion)...though they were terrible military strategically speaking(burned changsha wtf!!!)...
if mao could control KMT military(all those murican & germen weapons..) at that time, we wouldnt have lost so many lives (soldiers and civilians )while fighting japanese.

I do agree with you in this though. It's true KMT didnt have a brillant military strategy, but you cant deny their contribution towards the war against ImperialJapan while claiming the CCP did all the fighting.lool I do agree that had Mao be leading the KMT then China will have fare much more better against Japan , since Mao was indeed a brillant military strategist, but sucked at actually ruling/managing the country/economy.lol
Im afraid many Chinese members on here will be angry with you though, since you recognised the KMT played a crucial role against Imperial Japan.lool

I agree with you on the first part. The westerners looked down on China when they saw the "bad" performance in the Sino-Japan war. But when the Japanese conquered Southeast Asia in several months. They were just speechless and wondered how China alone could resist Japan for nearly 5 years.

I disagree on the second part. You made the same mistake for underestimating CCP's contribution. CCP's armies fought in Japanese occupied land with poor weapons and few supplies. They not only survived in that harsh environment(You must know how brutal the Japanese army was), also became stronger and stronger. Their achievement is a miracle in the human war history. As far as I know, no army in the history created same miracle as CCP did.

Well, i never said CCP never did anything, i said their contribution was quite insignificant when compared to the official Chinese government (KMT). I dont blame them though, they were merely a guerilla fighting force back then, and they were ill equipped to face imperial Japanese forces, so they always picked their battles while avoiding majorbattles against Japan. So i was merely refuting the idea/brainwashing propagated by the CCP that they did all the fighting, while the KMT did nothing at all. They claim they were the one to win the war and liberated China from evil Japanese forces. Which is totally false(as admitted by Mao himself). It was the KMT that bore the brute force of Japan onslaught in China, since they did most of all the major battles against Japan.

I do admit that they werent really brillant militarily, but they did what they could while fighting a civil war at the same time,which isnt easy at all.

Mao was trying to be cordial, that is just political speech. It cannot be argued that Japanese adventurism in Northeast China was the death bell for the Empire. The adventurism in Manchuria had, effectively, caused a coup d'etat in Japanese Government because it allowed radical military men to assume control such as Tojo and his ilk. Japanese parliamentarians who disagreed , even the Emperor himself, had no say in any policy. Either stay quiet, or be silenced. And let me say that many Japanese politicians who expressed their opposition were assassinated , or placed on house arrest. Do you think there was freedom of the press at that time in Japan? Media was censured.

Again, this is the problem when we , as a people, allow ultranationalists and ultramilitants to assume control. Never, ever, again.

Nope, Mao wasn't trying to be cordial bro, he was merely stating a fact/truth. Japans invasion of China(which i think was a huge blunder/mistake by the way) did help the CCP alot, not only did it weakened KMT forces who were doing all the mjor fighting against Japan, but it also help give space/time for the CCP to regroup/train/arm and propagate their ideology in the country side, thereby getting the people unto the CCP side which also increased their fighting force alot. So without Japan, it would have been much more difficult(if not impossible) for the CCP to defeat the KMT, or it will have taken decades if ever.

So i agree with mao

 

[terranMarine]

@Nihonjin1051
It cannot be helped, it will take a long time before things water down. The only obstacle left that will add oil to flame is the dispute between China and Japan. I think if this can be solved once and for all plus China has turned into a developed country with a GDP comparable to Western standards things could look positive in forging greater friendship than what we are seeing right now. But since Japan is also having dispute with South Korea and the three of us has to deal with North Korea too, the region can be quite tense at some times. Not to mention the US presence in both South Korea and Japan. But i'm positive it will not end up like the Middle East as long we keep our heads cool, so yeah it's unfortunate for your generation and the next couple of generations bearing this shame while Chinese too have to deal with the shame of foreign invasions. As China grows stronger and more powerful, this complex will slowly disappear though it will always be part of the never forget history even when China moves on. Whatever the future holds as long we remember this lesson and avoid escalations we can maintain peace in East Asia.

 

[Yizhi]

Im afraid many Chinese members on here will be angry with you though, since you recognised the KMT played a crucial role against Imperial Japan.lool

seriously, this is not some myth that 'brainwashed chinese' know nothing about. CCP is not that good at brainwashing...
it's there in textbooks...or at least my generation chinese acknowledge this... i think most sane chinese would agree with me.
but KMT really sucks...no one in their right mind would be pro-KMT(except for taiwanese...speaking of good at brainwashing..)

 

[kankan326]

Well, i never said CCP never did anything, i said their contribution was quite insignificant when compared to the official Chinese government (KMT). I dont blame them though, they were merely a guerilla fighting force back then, and they were ill equipped to face imperial Japanese forces, so they always picked their battles while avoiding majorbattles against Japan. So i was merely refuting the idea/brainwashing propagated by the CCP that they did all the fighting, while the KMT did nothing at all. They claim they were the one to win the war and liberated China from evil Japanese forces. Which is totally false(as admitted by Mao himself). It was the KMT that bore the brute force of Japan onslaught in China, since they did most of all the major battles against Japan.

I do admit that they werent really brillant militarily, but they did what they could while fighting a civil war at the same time,which isnt easy at all.

If you understand Chinese or Japanese. Read this link:
《陆军步兵漫话物语》斋藤邦雄_辽化吧_百度贴吧

 

[Viet]

To be honest, I do not think it would be to the interest of Vietnam to engage in a contest against Taiwan. Status quo should be maintained.

no worry, we are not mad. everbody knows the giant panda (china) and the mighty eagle (america) hold their military umbrella over taiwan. besides shouting, nothing is going to happen.

 

[Aepsilons]

no worry, we are not mad. everbody knows the giant panda (china) and the mighty eagle (america) hold their military umbrella over taiwan. besides shouting, nothing is going to happen.

Vietnam has great potential. Let's pray that all the development seen in the country -- flourish. Only through peace and prudent diplomacy can Vietnam ensure that her future generations experience and attain high quality of life. Peace is hard won, and no other people than the Vietnamese know how hard fought and sought after --- that peace really is.

So in closing , I wish prosperity for Vietnam this 2015.

 

[Echo_419]

I agree. Most importantly, what the war taught us, unfortunately it was only through our unconditional defeat, is this -- never again to allow military style fascism to control Japan. This is why Japan must remain a representative democracy, this is why it is important to have an independent judiciary to declare acts of the National Diet or even by the Executive as Constitutional or Not. It was only through our subjugation by the allies that -- the Democracy we have now in place -- is necessary.

Never again shall we suffer the insufferable of the past.



Its not an issue. Vietnam does not have the military or economic resources to engage in a war with Taiwan. In fact, as a signatory of the 2002 Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea, Vietnam required to maintain status quo and to refrain from militant adventurism. If she abrogates this, then this will weaken the fragile peace in that region.

Vietnamese ultranationalists , many of whom are in PDF, may want a war with China or Taiwan, but on the ground -- this is not so. A war with Taiwan would encourage the intervention of the PLAN. And as much as I have profound respect for Vietnam and Vietnamese people, they cannot win a naval war with the PLAN. They would be annihilated.

Status quo will remain.



It was equally a curse for us as well. Trust me, it did not benefit Japan , as a whole, and neither did it benefit China. 2nd Sino Japanese War was a curse for both our sides. -_- "

Truth should never offend anyone

 

[Carlosa]

As much as I am an optimist, I do not think I will live to see complete friendship between Japanese and Chinese Government or for this stain of our past to be forgotten. Perhaps, in say 2-3 centuries, maybe the memory and pain of our mistake would have been forgotten. I do empathize for Chinese people and members here and their reaction whenever someone tries to poke fun about Nanjing, or Manchuria or what not. I mean, its not something that is even beneficial to any of us (Chinese or Japanese) to think about. Like i said before, one word describes this thing -- Shame. Shame for us. And if you know Japanese culture and mindset -- anything that is shameful -- we prefer not to talk about as much. It is a great shame, great embarrassment.

It suck really because our generation, my generation, has to deal with the past failures of our grandparents' generation. Or the decision making of a long gone, long dead government. I guess, the sins of our grandfathers ...remain to haunt us.

-_-''

I'd like to ask you, what's your personal take on Abe? As far as I can see, he seems to represent the sector of Japanese society that feels that they didn't do anything wrong on WW2 and that they didn't deserve to lose and they are busy denying all the atrocities done by Japanese troops / comfort women, etc and they attack those Japanese that don't agree with them (Look at the big thing going on now because of the movie from Angelina Jollie).

Regarding Taiping island, VN can pretty much take it whenever they want and there isn't much that Taiwan can do about it, they don't have enough power projection capability to go there. All they can do is send some ships and C-130 reinforcements and both would be easily eliminated by the Viet air force.

For those that talk about the differences in the industrial capabilities, that is not relevant. That only makes sense in a prolonged conflict that last years and I don't see how that could happen for a tiny island. Taiwan can't risk their military assets with Vietnam, they need them for China.

The only one that can do something in that situation would be China and that's enough reason for VN not to attack Taiping.

And anyway, in the current situation it would not make sense for VN to do anything like that. Furthermore, I have information that about 3 years ago, the Viet military was itching to take Taiping, they were overflying the island, etc, but US told them to not even think about doing that and that was the end of the story.

 

[Yizhi]

Furthermore, I have information that about 3 years ago, the Viet military was itching to take Taiping, they were overflying the island, etc, but US told them to not even think about doing that and that was the end of the story.

that's the typical US style. they love the tension in SCS for arm sales yet dont want any risk of a hot war (no matter how small it might be).
this is actually win win from chinese perspective since all china need is no real containment action from US.
people keep shouting at each other and buying weapons but nothing's gonna happen.

 

[Carlosa]

that's the typical US style. they love the tension in SCS for arm sales yet dont want any risk of a hot war (no matter how small it might be).
this is actually win win from chinese perspective since all china need is no real containment action from US.
people keep shouting at each other and buying weapons but nothing's gonna happen.

I would agree with you for the most part as it usually is like that, but I think there is a new dynamic developing and the first part of that is the encirclement / economic war that US / NATO is doing against Russia which is probably unlikely to create an actual hot war (unless they pushed Russia too much into a corner).

I have a feeling that part 2 of that new dynamic will be against china and the likely scenario will be in the SCS, particularly after the UNCLOS 's resolution about a year from now. Maybe I'm wrong but I have a strong feeling that it might be the case. US needs to eliminate the 2 upcoming competitors and they seem to be willing to go quite far to get it done.

 

[Yizhi]

I have a feeling that part 2 of that new dynamic will be against china and the likely scenario will be in the SCS, particularly after the UNCLOS 's resolution about a year from now. Maybe I'm wrong but I have a strong feeling that it might be the case. US needs to eliminate the 2 upcoming competitors and they seem to be willing to go quite far to get it done.

i agree that anti china theme is rising and will definitely has some role to play.
but that's the natural reaction to any rising power(look at india's neighbors, also not pretty), and US is definitely going to cash the situation. but china very successfully ties itself with US economically, so any REAL big move against china will be like suicide...therefore i do expect all kinds of nasty moves(HK, tibet, xinjiang...these issues are totally politicized now, no one care about actual people living there...), but real cold war like extreme rivalry scenario is gone for good...

 

[Carlosa]

i agree that anti china theme is rising and will definitely has some role to play.
but that's the natural reaction to any rising power(look at india's neighbors, also not pretty), and US is definitely going to cash the situation. but china very successfully ties itself with US economically, so any REAL big move against china will be like suicide...therefore i do expect all kinds of nasty moves(HK, tibet, xinjiang...these issues are totally politicized now, no one care about actual people living there...), but real cold war like extreme rivalry scenario is gone for good...

I'm not so sure as you, but you might be right.