US losing economic war and Asia loves it.

[jhungary]

OK, let's talk about micro-economic.

If China continue with its 7% growth each year, yes, indeed they can double their GDP every 10 years. But that was just a mathematical representation that follow the equation of 1.07^10 =1.96 times compound. But there is one major flaw in this mathematical representation. That is, you basing on an uncapped value.(Ie, there are infinite amount of money in the world, iie, the world keep printing money)

In micro-economic term, every financial entity have their cycle of flow. Cash have cash flow, while credit/account payable have their data flow. In fact, money (Hard currency or soft) only change hand, they did not disappear. To establish a 12 trillions GDP and a jump to 123trillions GDP, either it mean China have the LARGEST Pie in the world, or Money have deflated to a point there are no more value into it.

Given the world GDP growth is 3-4% (3.5 in 2012, estimate 3.9 in 2013) the world's GDP at 2040 will be (using 84trillion @2012) 220 Trillions GDP. And now, are you going to tell me more than 50% of the world GDP are coming from China (55% to be exact)?? People who have a slight Economic knowledge will know this is not going to happen. (Given US is only 16% of the GDP share now), then we all know World GDP are going down in % by the years, not going up.

So the only other way when China can get such value is when the global currency being deflated into a point money no longer have any value. Lets say, to be modest, China represent 20% of the world earning power. That's one fifth for people who do not know. That's 615 trillions dollars. For the world to reach that level of total GDP by 2040, the world need to INFLAT their value for 25% EVERY YEAR.........Which, make today monies become tomorrow toilet papers.....

So, for the 123 trillions statement to be true, either the writer imply China hold 55% of the world earning. Or the world is inflating it's currency 25% each year in EVERY COUNTRY. Eitherway, it does not sounded like someone who had any formal financial or economic training, lol

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, October 2012 -- Table of Contents
Gross world product - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[UKBengali]

OK, let's talk about micro-economic.

If China continue with its 7% growth each year, yes, indeed they can double their GDP every 10 years. But that was just a mathematical representation that follow the equation of 1.07^10 =1.96 times compound. But there is one major flaw in this mathematical representation. That is, you basing on an uncapped value.(Ie, there are infinite amount of money in the world, iie, the world keep printing money)

In micro-economic term, every financial entity have their cycle of flow. Cash have cash flow, while credit/account payable have their data flow. In fact, money (Hard currency or soft) only change hand, they did not disappear. To establish a 12 trillions GDP and a jump to 123trillions GDP, either it mean China have the LARGEST Pie in the world, or Money have deflated to a point there are no more value into it.

Given the world GDP growth is 3-4% (3.5 in 2012, estimate 3.9 in 2013) the world's GDP at 2040 will be (using 84trillion @2012) 220 Trillions GDP. And now, are you going to tell me more than 50% of the world GDP are coming from China (55% to be exact)?? People who have a slight Economic knowledge will know this is not going to happen. (Given US is only 16% of the GDP share now), then we all know World GDP are going down in % by the years, not going up.

So the only other way when China can get such value is when the global currency being deflated into a point money no longer have any value. Lets say, to be modest, China represent 20% of the world earning power. That's one fifth for people who do not know. That's 615 trillions dollars. For the world to reach that level of total GDP by 2040, the world need to INFLAT their value for 25% EVERY YEAR.........Which, make today monies become tomorrow toilet papers.....

So, for the 123 trillions statement to be true, either the writer imply China hold 55% of the world earning. Or the world is inflating it's currency 25% each year in EVERY COUNTRY. Eitherway, it does not sounded like someone who had any formal financial or economic training, lol

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, October 2012 -- Table of Contents
Gross world product - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That figure does not represent "money" as in US dollar or the current Western-dominated financial system in place. It is a more an estimate of how much wealth(as in agricultural, manufacturing, services and technological) it would hold in relation to the rest of the world by 2040.

If China fulfils it's potential to be a developed economy within a generation, the current Western economic system is finished - dollar hegemony, IMF, World bank, free trade agreements etc is finished for good.

A developed China would have such a massive advantage over all other countries(or group of countries) in the world, that this prediction that it will be many times as rich as the US by 2040 is at least possible.

btw - the writer is a Nobel economist so let us at least give his opinions some respect.

China will have $123 trillion GDP by 2040? $85,000 as per capita GDP?

Well, here is another prediction...By 2040, Arabs will have a space-station at mars from where they'll launch missions into outer galaxies...

Mate - you should at least try to give logical arguments why this is not possible.

All the prediction is saying is that China will become a well developed nation by 2040. If you see what it has achieved since 1980, this cannot be dismissed so easily.

 

[ephone]

Not sure about the $123 trillion. However, China GDP was 40% of the world GDP not that long ago: the opium war time.

So before you say it is impossible, check out the historical numbers.

BTW, history does repeat itself.

writer is trolling with China's emotion..by 2015,China will cross USA???well,it is almost 2014..

and 123 trillion by 2040???well,I think China will be ruler of the world by then..

 

[ephone]

another economic collapse may speed up China's rise even more. Remember what happened last time? The distance between U.S. and China is closer due to the economic meltdown.

2040 is a long way away, anything could happen before then. A world war, a revolution, another economic collapse.

 

[888jamie888]

another economic collapse may speed up China's rise even more. Remember what happened last time? The distance between U.S. and China is closer due to the economic meltdown.

I was thinking more of a Chinese economic collapse for whatever reason. There are so many factors involved in a long term prediction, it is impossible to account for them accurately and some are ignored entirely.

 

[AUz]

All you did is whine away. You offered no counter-argument or rebuttal to my statement.

Go ahead, I'm waiting for a refutation....

There is nothing to refute, genius.


China won't have 123 trillion economy with $ 85,000 per capita for 1.4 billion people by 2040. This is just way too ambitious....

Do you think China will be able to expand its economy 15 times in just 27 years?! Have you ever taken a class called "Introduction to Macroeconomics"?

Also, predicting 2040 is what kids do. No one knows that new technology will arrive by then, what new industries will emerge, what new political order will emerge, what new challenges will be there, what new conflicts will be there..so on and so forth.

So being being a little whiny Asian kid..and just wait for 2040. Saying something now is useless..

 

[Okemos]

What the heck is the point of this thread? puffff, 2040, that's too distant.

To the contrary, we need more Gordan Chang in west preaching China's collapse! Thank you Gordan, you are my hero and a true Chinese.

 

[jhungary]

That figure does not represent "money" as in US dollar or the current Western-dominated financial system in place. It is a more an estimate of how much wealth(as in agricultural, manufacturing, services and technological) it would hold in relation to the rest of the world by 2040.

If China fulfils it's potential to be a developed economy within a generation, the current Western economic system is finished - dollar hegemony, IMF, World bank, free trade agreements etc is finished for good.

A developed China would have such a massive advantage over all other countries(or group of countries) in the world, that this prediction that it will be many times as rich as the US by 2040 is at least possible.

btw - the writer is a Nobel economist so let us at least give his opinions some respect.



Mate - you should at least try to give logical arguments why this is not possible.

All the prediction is saying is that China will become a well developed nation by 2040. If you see what it has achieved since 1980, this cannot be dismissed so easily.

coming from previous post quality, I am best NOT to reply your post directly.

However, I will give you this piece to read. It's from the same press that Fogel predict a 123 trillions economy of China.

written about a month after fogel famous "123 Trillions" article

What Robert Fogel Gets Wrong on his predictions for China's economic growth - By Nicholas Consonery | Foreign Policy

read and digest

everybody can have brain fart moment, just because he won a nobel prize does not mean he would not. His piece on Chinese economy are widely discredited after publish

 

[UKBengali]

coming from previous post quality, I am best NOT to reply your post directly.

Please do reply to my post directly as I would love to hear your arguments.

 

[jhungary]

Please do reply to my post directly as I would love to hear your arguments.

lol, just read, no point arguing with someone who do not use their brain

Could China’s GDP Reach $123 trillion by 2040? | Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man
Robert Fogel is optimistic about China
Myth #276: China will become a $123 trillion economy by 2040

 

[UKBengali]

lol, just read, no point arguing with someone who do not use their brain

Could China’s GDP Reach $123 trillion by 2040? | Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man
Robert Fogel is optimistic about China
Myth #276: China will become a $123 trillion economy by 2040

I do not care for these links, please show me you have an analytical mind and can give coherent, logical arguments as to why the prediction could not possibly be right. You post was looking at China growing so big and also the Western imposed world order would still be intact - it won't as China would be so large it would be a massive economic pole in it's own right

btw - I do not care for people that want China to fail as they themselves are Westerners who would "lose" if China was to succeed.

 

[soaringeagle]

I agree with you on this.

What the heck is the point of this thread? puffff, 2040, that's too distant.

To the contrary, we need more Gordan Chang in west preaching China's collapse! Thank you Gordan, you are my hero and a true Chinese.

Mean while those who want to win are learning the language and setting up offices in major cities of CN to reap for foreseeable harvest.

I do not care for these links, please show me you have an analytical mind and can give coherent, logical arguments as to why the prediction could not possibly be right. You post was looking at China growing so big and also the Western imposed world order would still be intact - it won't as China would be so large it would be a massive economic pole in it's own right

btw - I do not care for people that want China to fail as they themselves are Westerners who would "lose" if China was to succeed.

 

[shuttler]

OK, let's talk about micro-economic.

If China continue with its 7% growth each year, yes, indeed they can double their GDP every 10 years. But that was just a mathematical representation that follow the equation of 1.07^10 =1.96 times compound. But there is one major flaw in this mathematical representation. That is, you basing on an uncapped value.(Ie, there are infinite amount of money in the world, iie, the world keep printing money)

In micro-economic term, every financial entity have their cycle of flow. Cash have cash flow, while credit/account payable have their data flow. In fact, money (Hard currency or soft) only change hand, they did not disappear. To establish a 12 trillions GDP and a jump to 123trillions GDP, either it mean China have the LARGEST Pie in the world, or Money have deflated to a point there are no more value into it.

Given the world GDP growth is 3-4% (3.5 in 2012, estimate 3.9 in 2013) the world's GDP at 2040 will be (using 84trillion @2012) 220 Trillions GDP. And now, are you going to tell me more than 50% of the world GDP are coming from China (55% to be exact)?? People who have a slight Economic knowledge will know this is not going to happen. (Given US is only 16% of the GDP share now), then we all know World GDP are going down in % by the years, not going up.

So the only other way when China can get such value is when the global currency being deflated into a point money no longer have any value. Lets say, to be modest, China represent 20% of the world earning power. That's one fifth for people who do not know. That's 615 trillions dollars. For the world to reach that level of total GDP by 2040, the world need to INFLAT their value for 25% EVERY YEAR.........Which, make today monies become tomorrow toilet papers.....

So, for the 123 trillions statement to be true, either the writer imply China hold 55% of the world earning. Or the world is inflating it's currency 25% each year in EVERY COUNTRY. Eitherway, it does not sounded like someone who had any formal financial or economic training, lol

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, October 2012 -- Table of Contents
Gross world product - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

WHAT? do you know what is MICROECONOMICS?

 

[East Asia United]

There is nothing to refute, genius.


China won't have 123 trillion economy with $ 85,000 per capita for 1.4 billion people by 2040. This is just way too ambitious....

Do you think China will be able to expand its economy 15 times in just 27 years?! Have you ever taken a class called "Introduction to Macroeconomics"?

Also, predicting 2040 is what kids do. No one knows that new technology will arrive by then, what new industries will emerge, what new political order will emerge, what new challenges will be there, what new conflicts will be there..so on and so forth.

So being being a little whiny Asian kid..and just wait for 2040. Saying something now is useless..

So again, you just whined away by telling me that I am whining, all because I pointed out an argument that a Nobel Prize Winner in Economics is predicting.

How smart are you? Well, not very.

Oh, and yes, if IQ is any indicator of performance (and it is, show me one high-IQ country with a low development, other than Mongolia and China), then China is going to have a GDP per person equal to or greater than the Europeans and/or Americans.

South Korea is already wealthier than the EU average, Taiwan has surpassed Germany this year, Singapore and Hong Kong are richer than America, and Japan is higher than the majority of European countries (on a land with virtually NIL natural resources).

Face it buddy, in the same way that the other East Asian nations stunned the globe with remarkable 8-10% growth rates for decades on end, China will do the same.

"Do you think China will be able to expand its economy 15 times in just 27 years?"

If you don't want to sound dumb you should probably say, Do you think China will be able to expand its economy, in addition to Yuan currency appreciation and inflation, 15 times in just 27 years?

Oh, and you would make sure to understand that we are referring to GDP PPP here, not nominal GDP. That is an increase of roughly 10 times.

Let's See:

China GDP 1996: $850 billion

China GDP 2012: $8,200 billion

A 10x increase in 16 years. With a slowdown in growth, China can do a 10x increase in 28 years.

 

[Wright]

So again, you just whined away by telling me that I am whining because I pointed out an argument that a Nobel Prize Winner in Economics is predicting.

How smart are you? Well, not very.

Oh, and yes, if IQ is any indicator of performance (and it is, show me one high-IQ country with a low IQ, other than Mongolia and China), then China is going to have a GDP per person equal to or greater than the Europeans and/or Americans.

South Korea is already wealthier than the EU average, Taiwan has surpassed Germany this year, Singapore and Hong Kong are richer than America, and Japan is higher than the majority of European countries (on a land with virtually NIL natural resources).

Face it buddy, in the same way that the other East Asian nations stunned the globe with remarkable 8-10% growth rates for decades on end, China will do the same.

"Do you think China will be able to expand its economy 15 times in just 27 years?"

If you don't want to sound dumb you should probably say, Do you think China will be able to expand its economy, in addition to Yuan currency appreciation and inflation, 15 times in just 27 years?

Oh, and you would make sure to understand that we are referring to GDP PPP here, not nominal GDP. That is an increase of roughly 10 times.

Let's See:

China GDP 1996: $850 billion

China GDP 2012: $8,200 billion

A 10x increase in 16 years. With a slowdown in growth, China can do a 10x increase in 27 years.

Dont mind him, he thinks muslim nations will rule the world economically. It pains him to see some Athiest nations rise to places where his beloved Arabs can never go.