US can't attack Iran, and Israel probably can't handle the response: Slate

[Jigs]

I definitely believe the U.S. is capable even with economic strain to cripple Iran if it really wanted to. If the U.S. knows Iran is close to making a nuke it will launch an attack with no other choice. Israel on the other hand even with American support (Financially) will only delay the program. If it does come to war both parties will probably launch massive air strikes on known facilities.

Iran could only defend this for so long before the air strikes cripple it. I wonder if a invasion would occur after this though or would the means be to cripple the military and the program and financially break Iran down.

Iran is preparing its enrichment facilities for airstrikes though and it won't be easy to hit them.

Planeman's Military Analysis: Iran increases air defences at Natanz nuclear site-link

 

[Cheetah786]

Both war are self defence and attacked by them.

you failed history class didnt ya let me help How do u explain GOA.

 

[Cheetah786]

LOL...What total nonsense and delusional thinking....

How exactly will Iran destroy the US Fifth Fleet and their bases in the Gulf?

American B-52 Bombers, B-2 Bombers, Submarines, Cruise missiles will destroy all of Iran's Naval installations.

American Cruisers and Destroyers will make short work of any speed boats that might harass its Carrier Battle Groups.

America has deployed Aegis Battleships along with Arrow II and Patriot Missile Shield which will shoot down any incoming missiles from Iran.

Iran has no air-force. It has an obselete Air Force which is no match for US Air Power.

Its Army is non-existent. It's Tanks will be made mincemeat by American Tanks.

Iran cannot seal of the Persian Gulf. They tried and they got blown out of the water by US Naval Forces in 1988.


The Danger that Iran poses that it can de-stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan, tell Hezbollah to launch terrorist attacks around the world and start another war with Israel.

If US forces were not bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran would have been attacked already.

Iran is no match for US forces. It will take USA, maximum of 2 weeks to totally defeat Iranian Forces and destroy all of its infrastructure.

Hey i no you weren't you the guy who Was advising bush during his invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and he was led to belive it will be a walk in the park and you are calling him delusional.

 

[Simorgh]

Remember one thing making ur own weapons when there is peace and when there is a war is 2 different scenarios.

I would show some caution on the iran side as it will have heaps to loose.

H

Iran's military industry grew faster during the war (the Iraqi imposed war) than it did for a long period after the war.

We will continue doing what is in our best interest. We're not losing a moment of sleep about these losers. Let them gather their best men and weapons, we will defend with everything we have.

 

[S-2]

Nice offering. Planeman does nice work at his blog from open-sources. I offered his stuff on Pak-India artillery locations to one of the members here in private from an extensive discussion of same elsewhere.

What's relevant here (among other salient points he makes) is this comment-

"What the mass of AAA does not represent is a step-change in capability, just more of the same. The SA-15 sites do offer a quantum leap in defences but are not unexpected."

Frankly, your post and his blog will be over the heads of most here. This is largely fan-boy level discussion and can't be seriously considered regardless of which side the comments of most fall upon.

Thanks.

 

[Jigs]

Nice offering. Planeman does nice work at his blog from open-sources. I offered his stuff on Pak-India artillery locations to one of the members here in private from an extensive discussion of same elsewhere.

What's relevant here (among other salient points he makes) is this comment-

"What the mass of AAA does not represent is a step-change in capability, just more of the same. The SA-15 sites do offer a quantum leap in defences but are not unexpected."

Frankly, your post and his blog will be over the heads of most here. This is largely fan-boy level discussion and can't be seriously considered regardless of which side the comments of most fall upon.

Thanks.

For the most part the air defenses are outdated but by putting up a large AA line could be quite effective against F-15s and F-16s. I am certain if a conflict occurred we would see B-2s being launched from European allies with some GBU-28s to hit harderned sites like Natanz.
This wouldn't be a limited operation due to the large number of sites all over Iran. Control of the airspace would be aquired early do to lack of Iranian air power. Of course this is all speculation
Would be nice to have a full break down of Israeli, American and Iranian scenarios.

Oh and i posted a thread about the indo/pakistani artillery bluffers guide he had up didn't get as much attention as the vs threads though

 

[S-2]

"This wouldn't be a limited operation due to the large number of sites all over Iran. Control of the airspace would be aquired early do to lack of Iranian air power. Of course this is all speculation"

Well, at least it appears informed speculation. That's all we can ask using open-source info.

I'll humbly re-offer my initial post here.

Thanks.

 

[Peregrine]

Hi,
I am really amazed at some guys trying to conclude the results of a war which has not even occurred, Wars are fought on battle fields not on web forums, seriously guys get over yourselves, if technology and some pseudo intellectuals theories were to be that credible in providing the accurate results of a war Americans wouldn't have lost Vietnam war, Korean & Cuban blunders and presently America should have gone back from Iraq and Afghanistan by now if they had made any significant gains, but that hasn't happened. This is how the history has been & future is going to be like, i am quoting one of my quotes again. ''International politics is neither predictable nor simple". and as for the sources which are very cherished here some flashy mambo jumbo from some sites ain't gonna incite any premonitions in any one.

 

[Thomas]

Shia caliphate? Are you serious?

When you talk in these terms it just makes it plain how little you know about politics within the Islamic world. This is the sort of thing I would expect a westerner with nothing under his belt other than a couple of fashionable books on the subject to say.

The Saudi monarchy is very practical and survives by maintaining a balance within the region and their country. They will never in a million years be seen as supportive of or allied with Israel at the expense of other muslims... they are the keepers of the two Holy Places. Their partisanship will put everything at risk. They are far more perceptive and practical than what you imagine.

Overt support is not practical. However there are signs of Covert support on certain issues. As long as they have plausible deniability they will be safe.

The Saudi's have not been silent on expressing their attitude towards Iran. Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini made the statement "The concept of monarchy totally contradicts Islam." and began to export their brand of violent extremism. The two countries have been at odds.

Don't forget the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". While Saudi Arabia may not support Israels policies or land gains since the 1967 war. They know that Israel does not wish for the overthrow of the Saudi Monarchy.

If the U.S. does decide to hold off on attacking Iran's nuke sites (which personally I doubt we will) I don't see a nuclear arms race happening but rather the extending of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. So that any nuke attack by Iran against a Persian gulf neighbor or Israel. Would be an attack on the U.S. requiring a full scale retaliatory response.

 

[oceanx]

you failed history class didnt ya let me help How do u explain GOA.

Just as an aside, it was the fate of little Goa, and not the much hooplaed "McMahon Line" that was first and foremost on Mao's mind when the decision over 1962 was made.

This lesson alone should give the PRC pause over Taiwan ...

I apologize for the digression.

But the same calculus applies to our topic at hand. The cost of an ill-conceived war to Uncle will be political and geopolitical, if not reaching historical and civilizational proportions (no I don't think I am hyperventilating).

And they know that.

 

[Hussein]

(no I don't think I am hyperventilating).

The Saudi's have not been silent on expressing their attitude towards Iran. Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini made the statement "The concept of monarchy totally contradicts Islam." and began to export their brand of violent extremism. The two countries have been at odds.

Khomeini was saying about the shah
the bad relations when they are bad they are for other reasons. saldy always this religious reason. but not only at all. saudis have strategy which is not in the same interest than Iran. Not speaking about the behavior to change the persian Gulf name.
Anyway for exemple in time of Khatami the relations were good. if Rezae was president it would be as well. saudis are diplomatic people. they need diplomatic people to speak with them.

Don't forget the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". While Saudi Arabia may not support Israels policies or land gains since the 1967 war. They know that Israel does not wish for the overthrow of the Saudi Monarchy.

I like these words but sometimes it is not true.
for exemple talibans are ennemies of USA and talibans are ennemies of Iran (remember one of the first thing they did in Kabul is to kill Iranian officials of ambassy there). but USA are not really friends of Iran government.

 

[Thomas]

The Saudi's have not been silent on expressing their attitude towards Iran. Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini made the statement "The concept of monarchy totally contradicts Islam." and began to export their brand of violent extremism. The two countries have been at odds.

Khomeini was saying about the shah
the bad relations when they are bad they are for other reasons. saldy always this religious reason. but not only at all. saudis have strategy which is not in the same interest than Iran. Not speaking about the behavior to change the persian Gulf name.
Anyway for exemple in time of Khatami the relations were good. if Rezae was president it would be as well. saudis are diplomatic people. they need diplomatic people to speak with them.

Iran and the Arab world are on a collision course | Washington Examiner

"These are three examples of Iran’s expansionist agenda and the increase in tensions between Tehran and the Arab world.

Iran’s expansion strategy includes using the Shiite communities living in the Gulf. Indeed, hundreds of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, who received military training in Iran have infiltrated the Gulf since last year in order to "militarize" the Shiite community in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Their mission is to organize the destabilization of these monarchies and target vital national interests and Westerners if Israel decided to conduct a military operation against Iran."

"Iran is spending money, energy and time to proselytize local population from Africa to the Gulf. And of all the Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia is the one feeling the most threatened by this new wave of Shiite proselytizing.

Interestingly, Saudi King Abdullah accused Shiites of trying to convert Sunnis and clearly pointed his finger at Tehran. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is convinced that Iran wants to overthrow the regime."

 

[Hussein]

Iran and the Arab world are on a collision course | Washington Examiner

"These are three examples of Iran’s expansionist agenda and the increase in tensions between Tehran and the Arab world.

Iran’s expansion strategy includes using the Shiite communities living in the Gulf. Indeed, hundreds of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, who received military training in Iran have infiltrated the Gulf since last year in order to "militarize" the Shiite community in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Their mission is to organize the destabilization of these monarchies and target vital national interests and Westerners if Israel decided to conduct a military operation against Iran."

"Iran is spending money, energy and time to proselytize local population from Africa to the Gulf. And of all the Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia is the one feeling the most threatened by this new wave of Shiite proselytizing.

Interestingly, Saudi King Abdullah accused Shiites of trying to convert Sunnis and clearly pointed his finger at Tehran. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is convinced that Iran wants to overthrow the regime."

in your article
"Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, recently said that Bahrain was Iran’s 14thprovince."
this is not true and it was already spoken about . Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri was saying in a history speech nothing to do with politics that in the past it was iranian. He never said that now it was an Iranian province.
It was a lie that was used so fast that he had to say to be sorry of the misunderstanding and say what i wrote above.

About hezbollah formation is in Iran now of some members but Hezbollah is far less linked to Iran than it was before. Now they have their own control and policy and decisions. Iran is at least sending a lot of money. Maybe be weapons but denied by Iran .

About Dubaï and Yemen, it is bullshit propaganda. it is so easy to say bullshit.
But when i can read in an article that they don't even know about Nouri words, i have no problem to think the journalist just doesn't know anything about Iran.

tc

 

[Luftwaffe]

regardless of sunni shiites converting reverting factor..Iran is serious about Palestine/Lebanon where as arab leaders aren't so naturally even arab people would and laud Iranians here.

Now verdict no matter people here try to conclude the answer is opposite to you're wishes...if jewish state call its self sane they wouldn't want barrages of rockets fired (possibly dangerously highly chemical biological )on its population (illegal land) in response they can use nukes but the damage would already taken place..in the end more jews would be eliminated and still over a billion Muslims would continue to live in this world who loses guess your self..now say cheese go back to your corners those who waves victory flags for jews/us..

 

[Hussein]

regardless of sunni shiites converting reverting factor..Iran is serious about Palestine/Lebanon where as arab leaders aren't so naturally even arab people would and laud Iranians here.

Now verdict no matter people here try to conclude the answer is opposite to you're wishes...if jewish state call its self sane they wouldn't want barrages of rockets fired (possibly dangerously highly chemical biological )on its population (illegal land) in response they can use nukes but the damage would already taken place..in the end more jews would be eliminated and still over a billion Muslims would continue to live in this world who loses guess your self..now say cheese go back to your corners those who waves victory flags for jews/us..

salam, who are you speaking to?