Interesting but in some instances naive points of view on Putin, it is Putin leading Russia, not the good people themsleves.
But recent economic/oil and gas history shows factually:
1. Saudi Arabia and the major Middle East oil producers have and will again, as needed, increase the world's supply of oil which will more than off set any Russian shortfall of oil sales to the EU.
2. The US and Russia jointly own and operate the largest refinery in the world, in Houston, Texas, USA. The US can readily divert to this refinery new oil production from within both the US and Canada. This is a quick fix, not a time lag.
3. The need for free world additional investment in Russian oil and gas production can be re-directed at the least to the USA which has proven large reserves those investments can be used to pump, refine, and sell to the EU.
There are numerous mix and match scenarios the West and East, too, can turn to which will leave Russia unable to use it's oil and gas to "blackmail" other nations with.
Already just limited economic sanctions have upset the Russian economy. Putin is starting to find out that he, too, is not indispensable.