JKangoroo
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- Jun 1, 2017
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Turkey is a pivotal country, located with one foot in Europe and the other in Asia. It borders the European Union countries of Greece and Bulgaria and shares its southern borders with civil war-torn Syria, the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, aspiring regional power Iran, Russian ally Armenia, and Georgia. Across the Black Sea is Russia, a traditional foe and now tentative ally. With a little over eighty million people and one of the region’s largest militaries Turkey is of consequence for its neighborhood as well as the geopolitical calculations of the United States, Germany, Russia and the Middle East. Unfortunately, Turkey could well be heading into a major economic crisis.
Turkey has come a long distance since the chaotic 1970s and 1980s when oil shocks pummeled the economy, high inflation squeezed people’s wallets and military-civilian relations were characterized more than once by the rolling of tanks and the ousting of elected officials. The late 1990s through the first decade of the twenty-first century were marked by greater political stability, the ascendency of civilian over military power, strong economic growth, a taming of inflation and improvements in the average citizens’ standard of living. The man most linked to all of this is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has gone from political strength to political strength, serving first as prime minister and then, upon changing Turkey’s constitution, stepped into the role of president, but with considerably enhanced powers from his predecessors in that office.
In the 2000s Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK) won five consecutive elections (2002, 2007, 2011, June 2015 and November 2015). Although it ran as a party with Islamic roots, the AK won at the polls because of its pragmatism on economic issues, a lack of corruption and disillusionment with the country’s fractious secular parties.
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However, the failed July 2016 military coup marked a turning point in in Turkish politics. While Erdogan’s AK triumphed over the military in earlier political infighting, it did so with the assistance of the Gulenists, who follow Turkish preacher Fethullah Gulen, who has lived in the United States since 1999. The Gulenists are seen as a religious and social movement, with a sizable number of followers in key parts of the Turkish state and business, conservative in many regards, and accused of being a secretive Islamic sect. The AK and Gulenists had a falling out, with the latter allegedly launching the 2016 coup.
In the coup’s aftermath, Erdogan’s rule has become considerably more autocratic and the country’s political freedoms have been curtailed in the name of national security. Along these lines, Erdogan purged the country of possible Gulenists, cracked down on the country’s Kurdish minority and embarked upon military actions against Syria’s Kurds, who have become one of that country’s major armed forces groups.
But it is the economy that looms as the biggest problem for Turkey. The Turkish economy expanded by a robust 7.0 percent in 2017, powered by a sizable surge in credit, driven by state loan guarantees and fiscal support. Export expansion, helped by a weak lira, was also a key factor.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkeys-biggest-national-security-threat-its-economy-25101
Turkey has come a long distance since the chaotic 1970s and 1980s when oil shocks pummeled the economy, high inflation squeezed people’s wallets and military-civilian relations were characterized more than once by the rolling of tanks and the ousting of elected officials. The late 1990s through the first decade of the twenty-first century were marked by greater political stability, the ascendency of civilian over military power, strong economic growth, a taming of inflation and improvements in the average citizens’ standard of living. The man most linked to all of this is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has gone from political strength to political strength, serving first as prime minister and then, upon changing Turkey’s constitution, stepped into the role of president, but with considerably enhanced powers from his predecessors in that office.
In the 2000s Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK) won five consecutive elections (2002, 2007, 2011, June 2015 and November 2015). Although it ran as a party with Islamic roots, the AK won at the polls because of its pragmatism on economic issues, a lack of corruption and disillusionment with the country’s fractious secular parties.
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However, the failed July 2016 military coup marked a turning point in in Turkish politics. While Erdogan’s AK triumphed over the military in earlier political infighting, it did so with the assistance of the Gulenists, who follow Turkish preacher Fethullah Gulen, who has lived in the United States since 1999. The Gulenists are seen as a religious and social movement, with a sizable number of followers in key parts of the Turkish state and business, conservative in many regards, and accused of being a secretive Islamic sect. The AK and Gulenists had a falling out, with the latter allegedly launching the 2016 coup.
In the coup’s aftermath, Erdogan’s rule has become considerably more autocratic and the country’s political freedoms have been curtailed in the name of national security. Along these lines, Erdogan purged the country of possible Gulenists, cracked down on the country’s Kurdish minority and embarked upon military actions against Syria’s Kurds, who have become one of that country’s major armed forces groups.
But it is the economy that looms as the biggest problem for Turkey. The Turkish economy expanded by a robust 7.0 percent in 2017, powered by a sizable surge in credit, driven by state loan guarantees and fiscal support. Export expansion, helped by a weak lira, was also a key factor.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkeys-biggest-national-security-threat-its-economy-25101
