Turkey to enter top 10 largest economies by 2023

[Selim I]

There is no chance that we will pass India or Indonesia, if anything Indonesia will make the same development as China or Japan in the 60-70s. India has unlike China not even reached is potentital because of the incompetence of the Politicians.

Someone mentioned Canada. If Canada spends its revenue from selling its ressources wisely it will be also hard to catch them.

I can only see Italy and Spain declining. But what matters to me is GDP per capita, of course India or China has a bigger GDP. But the average citizen is also significantly poorer. Instead of aiming for Top 10 GDP we should aim for a average income per capita of 20.000 euros. That would be a great achievment.

If you read my comment, I said surpassing India is highly unlikely. GDP per capita is the most significant factor since it is the individual who needs the gross domestic product. Having 2.5 trillion $ GDP in a country with 1.2 billion inhabitants proves nothing. This means the GDP per capita is on the level of regular african countries (talking about India right now).

Surpassing Indonesia is not aa big deal. Currently Indonesia is only around 10% ahead of total GDP of Turkey. This means if Indonesia shows a neutral growth rate the next 2 years, Turkey will already surpass them. If Indonesia shows half of the growth of Turkey's growth, this means Turkey will surpass Indonesia in around 4 years (which I think the scenario will be).

 

[Mosamania]

I know this is a bit far-fetched but a combination of Saudi and Turkey looks very promising. With Saudi's resource and investiment and Turkey's industrial capabilities the two can make a great power.

Why is this far fetched?? This is what is happening bro.

 

[Zulkarneyn]

If you read my comment, I said surpassing India is highly unlikely. GDP per capita is the most significant factor since it is the individual who needs the gross domestic product. Having 2.5 trillion $ GDP in a country with 1.2 billion inhabitants proves nothing. This means the GDP per capita is on the level of regular african countries (talking about India right now).

Surpassing Indonesia is not aa big deal. Currently Indonesia is only around 10% ahead of total GDP of Turkey. This means if Indonesia shows a neutral growth rate the next 2 years, Turkey will already surpass them. If Indonesia shows half of the growth of Turkey's growth, this means Turkey will surpass Indonesia in around 4 years (which I think the scenario will be).

There is absolutely no way Turkey can surpass Indonesia in total GDP. Indonesia is three times more populous than Turkey and their economy is booming at the moment. But as i said, Holland, Spain, Canada, Australia, South Korea very probable to surpass them in 20 year time. in 50 year time we will be in the heavyweight group. Our advantage is our young population and Turks in foreign countries. In 50 year we will definately outgrow UK and Italy too and probably also France (considering our population which is dynamic and young), thus Turkey will remain in top 7-8 in 21. century, which isn't bad at all.

 

[fly2012]

If you read my comment, I said surpassing India is highly unlikely. GDP per capita is the most significant factor since it is the individual who needs the gross domestic product. Having 2.5 trillion $ GDP in a country with 1.2 billion inhabitants proves nothing. This means the GDP per capita is on the level of regular african countries (talking about India right now).

I think both overal GDP and per capita GDP are important. The former enhances a country's political power and the latter on indvidual's economic power. Countries with larger GDPs can afford more money on infrastructure, research of future cutting edge technologies, military hardwares etc. Average Indians and Chinese may be as poor as Africans (I don't think that's true either, average Chinese's living standard is many times higher than African's with same GDP per capita on paper), if you are asked to bet on the future of these countries, do you bet on India/China or African countries. The same applies to Turkey, Turkey today is treated as a regional power not because of its per capita GDP.

 

[Selim I]

There is absolutely no way Turkey can surpass Indonesia in total GDP. Indonesia is three times more populous than Turkey and their economy is booming at the moment. But as i said, Holland, Spain, Canada, Australia, South Korea very probable to surpass them in 20 year time. in 50 year time we will be in the heavyweight group. Our advantage is our young population and Turks in foreign countries. In 50 year we will definately outgrow UK and Italy too and probably also France (considering our population which is dynamic and young), thus Turkey will remain in top 7-8 in 21. century, which isn't bad at all.

I am not sure if Indonesia will have a healthy growth rate like Turkey for 11 years. Turkey is growing very big in the industrial sector each year. I hope for Indonesia to grow as well, but I am not certain about whether their economy is mature and their political situation is stable. The time will show for sure.

 

[Martian2]

At current prices, Turkey is moving backwards and has fallen behind Switzerland

Turkey is growing weaker economically, not stronger.

At the end of 2011, Turkey was ranked 18th in the world with a GDP of $778 billion. However, at current market prices, Turkey's 2011 GDP would be $599 billion. This means Turkey is moving backwards and its GDP is smaller than Switzerland's.

In the local currency of Turkish liras, Turkey's 2011 GDP was 1,304.354 billion liras. At the current exchange rate of 1.8422 liras per U.S. dollar, Turkey's 2011 GDP is only US $599 billion. With an annual trade deficit of over $70 billion, Turkey's trade deficit is an astounding 10% of GDP. At this rate, the Turkish lira will crash. As a matter of fact, it has already started to implode in value.

Turkey has a serious economic problem. It has a massive trade deficit of $77 billion (see IMF chart above). This is unsustainable. The debt and interest payments will be a heavy burden on Turkey for years to come. Turkey has slipped to #19 in the world economically behind Switzerland. It could drop out of the G-20 in the coming years.

Reference for current Turkish exchange rate of 1.8422 liras per U.S. dollar: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/markets-turkey-idUSL5E8GP7DK20120525

 

[Selim I]

I think both overal GDP and per capita GDP are important. The former enhances a country's political power and the latter on indvidual's economic power. Countries with larger GDPs can afford more money on infrastructure, research of future cutting edge technologies, military hardwares etc. Average Indians and Chinese may be as poor as Africans (I don't think that's true either, average Chinese's living standard is many times higher than African's with same GDP per capita on paper), if you are asked to bet on the future of these countries, do you bet on India/China or African countries. The same applies to Turkey, Turkey today is treated as a regional power not because of its per capita GDP.

China's GDP per capita is around 3 times better than India's.

The total GDP is important, I meant a country with high GDP rate doesn't make their inhabitants rich if the country's size is 3 times the size of entire Europe.

The total GDP is very important factor on the political scale of the issue. As you say, Turkey is regional power due to its superior GDP in the region.

 

[Martian2]

China's GDP per capita is around 3 times better than India's.

The total GDP is important, I meant a country with high GDP rate doesn't make their inhabitants rich if the country's size is 3 times the size of entire Europe.

The total GDP is very important factor on the political scale of the issue. As you say, Turkey is regional power due to its superior GDP in the region.

Actually, at current prices, China's GDP is more than five times the size of India's.

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At 54.51 rupees per dollar, China's GDP is 5 times larger than Indian GDP!

In 2011 (at an average exchange rate of 46.667 Indian rupees per U.S. dollar), India's GDP was 1.676 trillion.

At the current exchange rate of 54.41 rupees per dollar:

1.676 trillion x (46.667 rupees / 54.41 rupees per dollar) = $1.437 trillion Indian GDP for 2011

After adjusting India's 2011 GDP to the current exchange rate ($1.437 trillion), it is smaller than Australia's GDP ($1.488 trillion)!

By the way, China's $7.298 trillion GDP is 5.08 times larger than India's $1.437 trillion GDP for 2011.

[Note: India's 2011 monthly average exchange rate link at Monthly Exchange Rate Average (Indian Rupee, American Dollar) 2011 - x-rates

The Indian rupee hit an all-time-low exchange rate of 54.41 rupees per dollar on Wednesday (May 16, 2012). Citation: Weak rupee to make polished diamonds costlier - The Times of India]

NOTE: India rupee has fallen significantly below 54.41 rupees per U.S. dollar. It is somewhere around 56 rupees per U.S. dollar. This means China's stable GDP has grown even larger relative to the collapsing Indian economy.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

There is absolutely no way Turkey can surpass Indonesia in total GDP. Indonesia is three times more populous than Turkey and their economy is booming at the moment. But as i said, Holland, Spain, Canada, Australia, South Korea very probable to surpass them in 20 year time. in 50 year time we will be in the heavyweight group. Our advantage is our young population and Turks in foreign countries. In 50 year we will definately outgrow UK and Italy too and probably also France (considering our population which is dynamic and young), thus Turkey will remain in top 7-8 in 21. century, which isn't bad at all.

Indonesia has 240 million people and great economic potential. Turkey will never have a larger economy than Indonesia. Some people don't know what they are talking about. Indonesia is a gigantic future economic powerhouse and will be among the very top of the world. By 2050 we will not be among the top 10 though, in my opinion.

 

[what]

Its a bit unfair and in my opinion not factual to compare the GDP numbers in times where our currency is weak, Martian2. There are so many more aspects/perspectives one has to consider when we're talking about how weak orstrong economies are.

Like I said its important how the wealth is distributed and how high the average income of the Mehmet or Johnny is.

I will go and read that report Ir.Tab posted now,

 

[fly2012]

China's GDP per capita is around 3 times better than India's.

The total GDP is important, I meant a country with high GDP rate doesn't make their inhabitants rich if the country's size is 3 times the size of entire Europe.

The total GDP is very important factor on the political scale of the issue. As you say, Turkey is regional power due to its superior GDP in the region.

In addition to that, countries with greater GDPs can spend on infrastructures, education and hospitals etc that are not reflected by per capita GDP. This also make their inhabitants "richer". For instance, as a poor country, infrastructures in many Chinese cities can easily rival with those in developed countries. Our neighbore kazakhstan's per capital GDP doubles that of China but A lot of kazakhstani go to China when they are sick and for higher education as well. I think it is fair to say that for two countries with the same per capita GDP, living standard in the larger country is generally a lot better.

Of course for a given country, per capita GDP is directly proportional to the country's GDP so there're no conflict between the two.

 

[Martian2]

Its a bit unfair and in my opinion not factual to compare the GDP numbers in times where our currency is weak, Martian2. There are so many more aspects/perspectives one has to consider when we're talking about how weak orstrong economies are.

Like I said its important how the wealth is distributed and how high the average income of the Mehmet or Johnny is.

I will go and read that report Ir.Tab posted now,

Read my posts. I'm making the argument that your currency will keep growing weaker, because of unsustainably high debt and interest payments. Also, look at the IMF projections (see second chart in post #111), Turkey will keep running US $70 billion trade deficits for years to come. My analysis is very generous.

An objective person would look at the overall data and conclude that Turkey has a good probability of dropping out of the G-20. Unless there are radical and massive reforms, Turkey's chance of joining the world's top 10 largest economies by 2023 is almost non-existent.

Your country's first priority is to reduce that massive annual US $70 billion trade deficit. If that doesn't happen, Turkey will follow India into economic oblivion.

Greece incurred unsustainable trade deficits, debt, and interest payments. Do these problems sound familiar?

 

[what]

I think 70-80 % is caused from our energy expenditures. We're investing a lot in energy and we have to keep investing in renewable energies.

We could have it so much easier with the Azeris and Turks united in one country.

 

[Zulkarneyn]

Read my posts. I'm making the argument that your currency will keep growing weaker, because of unsustainably high debt and interest payments. Also, look at the IMF projections (see second chart in post #111), Turkey will keep running US $70 billion trade deficits for years to come. My analysis is very generous.

An objective person would look at the overall data and conclude that Turkey has a good probability of dropping out of the G-20. Unless there are radical and massive reforms, Turkey's chance of joining the world's top 10 largest economies by 2023 is almost non-existent.

Your country's first priority is to reduce that massive annual US $70 billion trade deficit. If that doesn't happen, Turkey will follow India into economic oblivion.

Greece incurred unsustainable trade deficits, debt, and interest payments. Do these problems sound familiar?

If you were really knowledgable in currency rate you would know that Turkey'c currency always increases in summer period and falls in winter period. Again you also have to bear in mind that the given number in Turkey's currency was at the date when the exchange rate was at $778 bio. You are simply making a miscalculation.

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

I think 70-80 % is caused from our energy expenditures. We're investing a lot in energy and we have to keep investing in renewable energies.

We could have it so much easier with the Azeris and Turks united in one country.

Azeris are Iranic people, they have nothing to do with Turks.
just because theyr speak Turkish that makes them Turk?
Kurds+azeris+armenia are all Iranic people.