Turkey to enter top 10 largest economies by 2023

[Ir.Tab.]

Read my posts. I'm making the argument that your currency will keep growing weaker, because of unsustainably high debt and interest payments. Also, look at the IMF projections (see second chart in post #111), Turkey will keep running US $70 billion trade deficits for years to come. My analysis is very generous.

An objective person would look at the overall data and conclude that Turkey has a good probability of dropping out of the G-20. Unless there are radical and massive reforms, Turkey's chance of joining the world's top 10 largest economies by 2023 is almost non-existent.

Your country's first priority is to reduce that massive annual US $70 billion trade deficit. If that doesn't happen, Turkey will follow India into economic oblivion.

Greece incurred unsustainable trade deficits, debt, and interest payments. Do these problems sound familiar?

For comparing the economies of Greece and Turkey, it is not a good idea to compare only those rare similarities. Turkey economy is booming. Greece economy is contractile. I can't find the English version of this news, but it is a very recent statement from IMF official who presents the future economy of turkey from IMF point of view, very good.
IMF'den Türk Ekonomisine Övgü

 

[BronzePlaque]

Azeris are Iranic people, they have nothing to do with Turks.
just because theyr speak Turkish that makes them Turk?
Kurds+azeris+armenia are all Iranic people.

This topic is about Turkey and Turkish economy..Not about who is Iranian or not..Stick to topic and refrain from posting irrelevant BS, please..

************************

On the topic,

The world

This i have found on Wall Street`s blog..Its quite interesting..But i agree Martian on some points...Reducing the trade deficit should be #1 priority..We are spending more than we earn..Thats the main problem

 

[Martian2]

If you were really knowledgable in currency rate you would know that Turkey'c currency always increases in summer period and falls in winter period. Again you also have to bear in mind that the given number in Turkey's currency was at the date when the exchange rate was at $778 bio. You are simply making a miscalculation.

Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates won't help your economy. Your currency is at record lows, because of fundamental economic problems.

1. Unsustainable massive trade deficit of over US $70 billion per year. This enlarges your national debt.

2. As the national debt continues to grow unabated, it will cross 100% debt-to-GDP ratio around 2020.

3. The interest payments on the national debt weakens the economy. As the interest grows commensurately with the national debt, the Turkish economy will keep growing weaker.

In conclusion, the Turkish lira is hitting record lows for a reason (see list above). Given these fundamental economic problems, I believe the prognosis for Turkey's economy is not good. We can reconvene here in a year to compare our predictions.

I predict Turkey's nominal GDP for 2012 will be smaller than its GDP for 2011.

I will see all of you in 12 months.

[Note: PPP cannot be used to measure real GDP. PPP is an artificial academic construct. No one has ever seen a PPP dollar. Also, you cannot buy Boeing airplanes with fictitious PPP dollars. A country's GDP and business transactions are conducted only in real (i.e. nominal) US dollars.]

 

[Ir.Tab.]

Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates won't help your economy. Your currency is at record lows, because of fundamental economic problems.

1. Unsustainable massive trade deficit of over US $70 billion per year. This enlarges your national debt.

2. As the national debt continues to grow unabated, it will cross 100% debt-to-GDP ratio around 2020.

3. The interest payments on the national debt weakens the economy. As the interest grows commensurately with the national debt, the Turkish economy will keep growing weaker.

In conclusion, the Turkish lira is hitting record lows for a reason (see list above). Given these fundamental economic problems, I believe the prognosis for Turkey's economy is not good. We can reconvene here in a year to compare our predictions.

I predict Turkey's GDP for 2012 will be smaller than its GDP for 2011.

I will see all of you in 12 months.

In my opinion smaller GDP in 2012 compared to 2011 is possible, not as a result of national debt but as a result of a new depression in the world. The fact is for the 5 months of 2012, Turkey economy still grows at a rate well over 4%.

And evaluating Turk Lira with US$ is wrong because US$ value is changed dramatically:

 

[BronzePlaque]

Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates won't help your economy. Your currency is at record lows, because of fundamental economic problems.

1. Unsustainable massive trade deficit of over US $70 billion per year. This enlarges your national debt.

2. As the national debt continues to grow unabated, it will cross 100% debt-to-GDP ratio around 2020.

3. The interest payments on the national debt weakens the economy. As the interest grows commensurately with the national debt, the Turkish economy will keep growing weaker.

In conclusion, the Turkish lira is hitting record lows for a reason (see list above). Given these fundamental economic problems, I believe the prognosis for Turkey's economy is not good. We can reconvene here in a year to compare our predictions.

I predict Turkey's nominal GDP for 2012 will be smaller than its GDP for 2011.

I will see all of you in 12 months.

[Note: PPP cannot be used to measure real GDP. PPP is an artificial academic construct. No one has ever seen a PPP dollar. Also, you cannot buy Boeing airplanes with fictitious PPP dollars. A country's GDP and business transactions are conducted only in real (i.e. nominal) US dollars.]

We dont need to be emotional on these issues..Actually negative scenario feedbacks must always be welcomed..So thank you for your input..
I mostly agree with you..In short term a decrease in nominal GDP is expected..Economy is under pressure from sharp rises in both inflation and interest rates..But for mid-term i am optimistic..A major slowdown in growth, with subdued private demand, is essential if inflation is to fall back from over 10% currently to the 5% target on a sustained basis and the current account deficit is to shrink from 2011's massive US$77bn..And thats what Government and policy makers are trying to do atm..Hopefully they will succeed

 

[Selim I]

Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates won't help your economy. Your currency is at record lows, because of fundamental economic problems.

1. Unsustainable massive trade deficit of over US $70 billion per year. This enlarges your national debt.

2. As the national debt continues to grow unabated, it will cross 100% debt-to-GDP ratio around 2020.

3. The interest payments on the national debt weakens the economy. As the interest grows commensurately with the national debt, the Turkish economy will keep growing weaker.

In conclusion, the Turkish lira is hitting record lows for a reason (see list above). Given these fundamental economic problems, I believe the prognosis for Turkey's economy is not good. We can reconvene here in a year to compare our predictions.

I predict Turkey's nominal GDP for 2012 will be smaller than its GDP for 2011.

I will see all of you in 12 months.

[Note: PPP cannot be used to measure real GDP. PPP is an artificial academic construct. No one has ever seen a PPP dollar. Also, you cannot buy Boeing airplanes with fictitious PPP dollars. A country's GDP and business transactions are conducted only in real (i.e. nominal) US dollars.]

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is important on the import/export market, but Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is useful information for the people who lives in the respective countries. Since for example a Big Mac Menu costs around twice the price in Denmark compared to Turkey. The Purchasing Power is therefore very crucial for the people living in the country, since the market price is much lower in countries with low GDP, and therefore you can't just compare two countries with only their GDP nominel value.

When I travel to Turkey, I see that almost every daily product is around twice as cheap in Turkey compared to Denmark. That's why I am suddenly "rich" in Turkey (coming from Denmark), I can't buy much stuff in Denmark for the same amount of money.

I think PPP is most useful information when we are talking about "per capita", since that's their Purchasing Power in the respective country.

 

[Ir.Tab.]

The Gini coefficient (0-1 0r 0%-100%) is commonly used as a measure of inequality of income.

A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has an exactly equal income). A Gini coefficient of one (100 on the percentile scale) expresses maximal inequality among values (for example where only one person has all the income)

Gini-coefficient of national income distribution around the world (using 2009 data)

A low Gini coefficient combination with a high GDP could has a very pleasant meaning for a nation. have you heard about occupation of Wall Street and the famous slogan "We are the 99%"

 

[explorer9]

Thank you for your input. It appears only Saudis and people on the inside are aware of the massive Saudi transformation. I would appreciate if you elaborate further so that we all know and learn.

The meeting was held with the head of SAGIA ( ASIA-AUS.) & other delegation members we had 3 hour long discussion with them regarding Saudi economy its growth pattern especially the non hydrocarbon sector basically Saudi Arabia is in the 3rd stage of economic development and their main focus is to diversify their economy by enhancing manufacturing inside the kingdom through foreign and local Joint ventures or by wholly owned subsidiary to create entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship .

Focus on Turkey Please

 

[Raphael]

Just for reference, the 2017 GDP predictions are:

List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1 *United States 19,704,590
2 *China 12,713,864
3 *Japan 6,695,692
4 *Germany 3,893,038
5 *Brazil 3,267,904
6 *France 3,197,995
7 *United Kingdom 3,167,533
8 *Russia 3,105,810
9 *India 2,906,487
10 *Italy 2,248,397
11 *Canada 2,140,621
12 *Australia 1,932,001
13 *Indonesia 1,811,606
14 *South Korea 1,644,682
15 *Spain 1,590,617
16 *Mexico 1,567,710
17 *Turkey 1,258,651

I can see Turkey overcoming, Spain, Mexico and S. Korea by 2023, but anything higher is too difficult, IMO

 

[Ir.Tab.]

The Index of Economic Freedom's stated objective is to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The index scores nations on 10 broad factors of economic freedom using statistics from organizations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The Heritage Foundation reports that the top 20% on the index have twice the per capita income of those in the second quintile, and five times that of the bottom 20%. According to the Cato Institute's calculations, freedom is around 54 times (page 35) more effective than democracy (as measured by Democracy Index) in diminishing violent conflict! (Now, I am among those who are thinking about modern methods of cutting PKK's and Pejak's human sources.)

 

[Mosamania]

Sorry to my Turkish bros here for focusing on KSA but I can't help but feel good on the status of our economy by the charts Ir.Tab brings up. Really encouraging data.

 

[RayKalm]

because if you were not an imbecile you would understand, if from 30 years ago Iran continued to grow and the whole sanctions situation never happened then Iran would be much more powerful economically right now.
we are 17th right now, we would easily be in top ten by now.

 

[RayKalm]

Sorry to disappoint some people here, but Turkey will not take over Mexico's economy any time at all.

Mexico is next to the USA, and it is booming. It will overtake Japan in terms of GDP per capita nominal around the 2050s, and PPP around 2040s.

 

[Axa-]

Glorious Persian economy

 

[RayKalm]

Mexico reached it's 1 Trillion nominal milestone in 2007, Turkey reached will not reach it till 2015.