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Turkey surrendered in Syria’s Idlib after losing key town – op-ed

Posting a counter point here. In this round, as the Americans say, the Russians and their Syrian partners got their clocks cleaned by the Turks.


Turkey used a new weapon in Syria that was so effective it looks like Russia won't dare confront Turkey directly
insider@insider.com (Mitch Prothero)
INSIDERMarch 10, 2020, 1:44 PM EDT
Pool/Getty Images

  • Turkey and Russia have avoided all-out war, despite Turkey's full-scale offensive against the Moscow-backed Syrian regime.

  • Why did Russia think twice about escalating the Syrian conflict into a direct confrontation with Turkey?

  • It turns out that Turkey has a cheap and effective new drone program.

  • Peace in Syria will no doubt be welcomed. And military analysts are raising their eyebrows at the news that there are some wars that Russia is apparently not willing to fight.

  • Visit Insider's homepage for more stories.
The Turkish military's devastating display of power against the Syrian army last week — which saw the destruction of hundreds of regime tanks, artillery pieces and armored vehicles — came from a cheap but effective domestic drone program that NATO officials say has changed the military equation against Russia in Syria's Idlib Province.

The confrontation began in late February. Syrian regime forces, backed by Russian air support and "special forces advisors", began to push into Idlib, the last major area held by rebels against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's regime. Syria's civil war has lasted nearly a decade.

After regime forces took control of the critical crossroad town of Saraqeb, the Idlib rebel "pocket" began to collapse, sending hundreds of thousands of refugees trudging north through the snow towards safety in Turkey.

In theory, Turkey and Russia could have gone into an all-out war
Turkey's response was to send thousands of regular army units into Idlib to prevent the pocket's collapse. That sparked a battle between the Syrian regime and Turkey. Hundreds of regime troops were killed. There were scores of nightly airstrikes on Syria's tanks, artillery and armored vehicles.

The conflict was a dramatic turning point: Turkey's actions were more than a mere exchange of fire with hostiles just across the border. It looked more like a full-fledged act of war. Turkey using multiple assets in its military, and inflicted heavy damage on the Syrian military.

The mini-war was, in theory, a dangerous gamble, because it threatened to pit Turkey's military — the largest among NATO's European partners — directly against the formidable Russian military and air force, which backs Syria. That conflict, if escalated to its logical extent, could have resulted in all-out war between Turkey and Russia.

Russia should have won this one — but it didn't
In theory, Russia would win such a conflict.

Yet Turkey won this round.

How?

Turkey has a new ace up its sleeve, one that forced Russia to think twice about escalating against President Recep Erdogan's government, military sources told Insider.

Turkey's offensive was conducted with about 100 domestically produced drones launching cheap guided munitions with deadly efficiency.

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Turkish President Erdogan.
Reuters

"The Turks have been developing their own drone program for almost a decade now and Idlib highlights how successful they have been," said a NATO military official who has been regularly based in the region over the past ten years.

"By domestically producing them with commercially available technology, they managed to build a very large and effective fleet far more cheaply than purchasing them from the US or other allies," the official said. "And because of their conflict with the [Kudish separatist movement] PKK, they've had years to practice and hone their capability without concerns about human rights conditions."

A US ban on drones somehow worked to Turkey's advantage
The source points to the US policies restricting sales of armed drone technology to Turkey out of concerns the technology would be used on Kurdish targets as critical to the development of a domestic program. By 2007 the Turkish military had tired of limitations on what it could buy from the Americans. Disappointed by the poor performance of Israeli drones on the market, it then began to develop their own program.

The Turks established an aerospace firm in 2009, Baykar, under the control of President Recep Erdogan's son-in-law. Baykar developed the Bayraktar TB2 drone, a medium range drone that could spend 24 hours over a target. By 2015, the TB2 was test firing domestically produced weapons and was deployed for the first time a year later targeting PKK targets.

"The MAM-L [drone] stuff they deployed in Idlib worked spectacularly. It's cheap, easy to make and clearly doesn't miss," said the NATO official.

The source is referring to the MAM-L SMART MICRO MUNITION, a small, guided anti-armor bomblet with a range of about 10 KM and a highly accurate laser-GPS guidance system that directs the bomb to within a meter or so of its target.

"Dropping these bomblets on Syrian regime tanks all night got Putin's attention"
While Turkey guards the exact cost of producing the Bayraktar TB2 as a state secret, it sold 12 drones and three ground command centers to Ukraine last year for $69 million. At less than $6 million per drone, the TB2 is about a third of the cost of the similarly capable US produced Reaper MQ-9, which retails for US allies at about $16 million a piece.

Turkey's President of Defence Industries İsmail Demir, in a 2016 panel discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council, lauded the U.S. restriction on drone sales for pushing Turkey to become an independent UAV manufacturer. "I don't want to be sarcastic, but I would like to thank [the U.S. government] for any of the projects that was not approved by the U.S. because it forced us to develop our own systems," Demir quipped, adding that Turkey no longer wanted U.S.-made armed drones.

"Flying dozens of these drones over Idlib and dropping these bomblets on Syrian regime tanks all night got [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's attention," said the NATO official. "Sure in a direct confrontation, Russia could use its airpower and standoff munitions like cruise missiles to breakdown Turkey's air defenses and drone command and control, but at a cost that would be inconceivable in a conflict over Idlib. Turkey knows it can't force Russia out of Syria as much as they might like to, but they did reinforce that Putin and Assad cannot force Turkey out of Idlib. So it's back to agreements and discussions for now."

Today, Turkey and Russia agreed to another ceasefire in Idlib, with Russian troops patrolling a corridor about 6km on either side of the disputed M4/5 highway that is a critical link between the regime-controlled cities of Damascus and Aleppo.

The peace will no doubt be welcomed. And among military analysts, so will the news that there are some wars that Russia is apparently not willing to fight.
 
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By mastering the science, engineering and art of using the gunpowder in the form of matchlocks and cannons, coupled with the usual cavalry, the Turkic folks achieved the following:
  • Defeated and chopped off the heads of the Mamluks while putting Shah Ismail in his place. The Muslim Heartlands came under the peace and security of the Turkish rule. Since the fall of the Ottomans they haven't seen a single day of peace and honor
  • Defeated and chopped off the head of the Lodhi to conquer Hindustan. The least said about India the better
Let's see how far this drone technology takes the Turkish folks...
You have a turkish flag and you speak in the 3rd person about turkey ? Strange.
Turkey did show the future of drones in the battlefield but now everyone starts making countermeasures to drones.
Turkey succeeded because of not only drones but also because they had the upper hand in the EW environment. I suspect against a more sophisticated foe , keeping the drones in control might be more challenging.
 
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Four Drones were downed in total, 2 ANKA & 2 TB2.
 
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I learned something new on my time in PDF..

unlike all other armies in the history of mankind. Who usually measure progress by battlefield victories and advancements...

turks measure "success" with how many cool explosions their government propaganda industry shows them, and the crazy figures their government feeds them that make no logical sense.


15% of the Syrian army was wiped out in 2 days, yet they still make steady battlefield progress.. Must be the most fanatically diehard army on earth as even ISIS might shy away slightly from that sort of numbers....

It would take a couple of "victories" to lose your whole army at that rate... or do turks believe that Syrian soldiers respawn like the video game footage their government shows them?
 
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Not Syrian soldiers but fanatic pawns from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
 
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I learned something new on my time in PDF..

unlike all other armies in the history of mankind. Who usually measure progress by battlefield victories and advancements...

turks measure "success" with how many cool explosions their government propaganda industry shows them, and the crazy figures their government feeds them that make no logical sense.


15% of the Syrian army was wiped out in 2 days, yet they still make steady battlefield progress.. Must be the most fanatically diehard army on earth as even ISIS might shy away slightly from that sort of numbers....

It would take a couple of "victories" to lose your whole army at that rate... or do turks believe that Syrian soldiers respawn like the video game footage their government shows them?
So much, inferiorty complex that it reflected to the use of capital letters. This is why no Turk even bother to argue on any subject with the likes of you.
 
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So much, inferiorty complex that it reflected to the use of capital letters. This is why no Turk even bother to argue on any subject with the likes of you.
Funny thing is he even writes isis in capital letters but refuses to write the word ''Turks'' in capital letters.
Must be a huge complex if he thinks Turks are even worse than isis. :lol:
 
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