TuAF Alternative to F-35?

[Agha Sher]

well this is true and Egypt has no long range weapon to down them, this is a point for TAF.

well you were saying TAF has better fighter jets...

my friend dassault rafale, EF typhoon and super hornet have LO radar profile (around 0.5-0.1), it means an f-16 with APG-68 can detect them around 60-40 km respectively. and after that range rafale spectra (if i'm not wrong) jammers come in the game. they take sample of incoming radar and actively cancel it by producing opposite wave form of it so the rafale become invisible to hunter plane. again you need to come closer to achieve burn-through and detect rafale (i don't know how much exactly). so f-16's long range AMRAAM is not really relevant.


sortie definition is the times that a plane can take off and perform it's role and land. it is obviously related to number of planes.

According to my knowledge, Rafale has an RCS of slightly above 1, while F-16C has around 1.15. In that regard, they are comparable. In addition, TuAF enjoys greater integrated warfare capabilities as their AEW&C aircraft can feed target data to their F-16s. Thus, TuAF maintains its range advantage against EAF. In terms of EW, I would say the current Turkish upgrade programme is more or less comparable to SPECTRE.

sortie definition is the times that a plane can take off and perform it's role and land. it is obviously related to number of planes.

There might be some misalignment in our understanding of the terms. The way I understand the term is the number of combat mission of an individual aircraft. Thus, having the opportunity to refuel in the air (instead of landing for refuel) closer to the conflict zone between missions increases the sortie rate. (Assuming that the aircraft did not use all of its weaponry in the previous combat mission. Note, a combat mission does not necessarily entail use of weaponry)

 

[Mithridates]

According to my knowledge, Rafale has an RCS of slightly above 1, while F-16C has around 1.15. In that regard, they are comparable.

well every source claim it's own number, one of american sources claimed near B-2 RCS. frenchs themselves call it stealth.
however they all could be right as it's not a dedicated stealth and it's RCS would change with it's payload.

 

[CAN_TR]

during initial phases of Iran-Iraq war, Iraq imitating Israel raid over Egyptian air bases, used the element of surprise and attacked Iran with large number of fighter jets and heavy bombers (however they failed miserably and didn't hit a single jet).
the point of story is if they plan well their is no need to stay undetected. they can attack with large numbers, they can improvise and attack you from 3rd country's border. in the case of war every thing is possible.
the point is with saying they are nothing their capabilities does not degrade, TAF needs a plan for acquiring better planes.

The thing is Turkey is not Iran, not a neighbour of Egypt and has probably with Israel the best aerial reconnaissance systems in the region. A large scale attack over the Mediterranean would be a one way ticket for the Egyptian Airforce.

TuAF will upgrade it's F-16 to the F-16 Block70/Viper level.

Rafale specs: (F-16 has less)
Combat range: 1,000 km (620 mi, 540 nmi) on penetration mission with two CFTs (2,300 L), three tanks (5,700 L), two SCALP-EG and two MICA AAMs.

Isn't even enough for the return flight.

 

[Indos]

I do mostly agree with your overall point, but you are making several mistakes about the inventory and capabilities of Turkey's foes.

1) F-4 has been upgraded extensively and will do a decent job of serving as strike aircraft for the next 5-10 years.

2) Egypt does not have Su-30 (and Armenia cannot afford even a half squadron). Egypt's lead fighter will be Rafale, but without the most cutting-edge weaponry (so on par with Turkey's upgraded F-16s)

3) Greece cannot afford F-35, and when they can TF-X will be ready. SA will not get F-35 within the next couple of decades.

4) Bulgaria and Serbia's inventory medium-term is no challenge to TuAF.

5) KF-X and TF-X are by no means comparable. TF-X will be far superior and capable.

According to latest Jane defense news, KFX program will start its Block 2 program in 2021. If this is true there is possibility that blok 1 is only made for early prototype and possible mass production ( if the program is success) may use block 2 variant.

 

[CAN_TR]

According to latest Jane defense news, KFX program will start its Block 2 program in 2021. If this is true there is possibility that blok 1 is only made for early prototype and possible mass production ( if the program is success) may use block 2 variant.

In my opinion the KFX is the more rational F-35, i don't know why TR didn't mentioned it as a possible canidate.
The Block 2 is with internal weapons bay, right?

 

[IblinI]

According to latest Jane defense news, KFX program will start its Block 2 program in 2021. If this is true there is possibility that blok 1 is only made for early prototype and possible mass production ( if the program is success) may use block 2 variant.

You have to build a new block 2 and start the flight test again, so it is highly unlikely to test for the block 1 but mass production the block 2.

 

[Indos]

In my opinion the KFX is the more rational F-35, i don't know why TR didn't mentioned it as a possible canidate.
The Block 2 is with internal weapons bay, right?

Yup, you are right. And according to some report, its design is more maneuverable than F 35 and it also have two F 414 engine.

The thing that is still unknown is its AESA radar which is still underdevelopment. There is still not certain whether it will be on par with Western made one.

You have to build a new block 2 and start the flight test again, so it is highly unlikely to test for the block 1 but mass production the block 2.

Of course it is likely the case, total development cost are planned to produce 6 prototype and the basic design has already been made with internal weapon bay in mind. As I said block 1 is maybe only made for earlier prototype with the final prototype has internal weapon bay.

 

[IblinI]

As I said block 1 is maybe only made for earlier prototype with the final prototype has internal weapon bay.

They will need to collect data from the block 1 in big numbers to move on to block 2, so I doubt that too.

 

[Indos]

They will need to collect data from the block 1 in big numbers to move on to block 2, so I doubt that too.

I guess we dont know for sure whether my speculation will come true either. At least we have to wait until the first prototype fly in middle 2022 first inshaAllah.

 

[Glass]

SU35 will be bought i think

 

[GlobalMillitary96]

SU35 will be bought i think

To be honest I'd prefer the SU-57. It's probably the second best fighter after the F-22. SU-34 would be good too for use against ground targets.

The SU-35 is fast as heck but I don't know. I think a combo of SU-57 and SU-34 would be the best. Of course we shouldn't let any purchases effect our TFX and bomber drone projects.

 

[Ruhnama]

Turkey has fleets of F-16s so anything inferior to F-16 may not be accepted by TuAF.

So if the Sultan can keep up with anti-US and pro-Russia policy and secure his position for next decade, US-made fighters seems no longer available.
For other options:
=====================================================================
Turkey's own TF-X: Not available in short
Development for a 5-gen fighter takes quite some years.
J-20 takes 8 years from first prototype unveiled(2011) to be on service (2018) in spite of having the support of whole country. That of T-50 is not faster either.
It will take 2~5 years for TF-X to have the first prototype (and you should pray that BAE or RR will be committed to you despite of possible future politic conflict), so may take 10+ years before it can be on service from now.

China: Currently we can offer nothing:
For TuAF:
----The FC-20E (export version of J-10): just approximately equal to F-16.
----J-11/J-16 (Chinese version of Su-27 familys): Not for export. And buyers must go for original Russian versions.
----J-20: The best, bot not for export
----FC-31: Still in prototype phase and conflict with you own TF-X, I don't think TuAF would like to invest billions of $ to it.
For Anadolu:
----J-15 (Chinese version of Su-33): Not for export, meanwhile J-15 is a heavy fighter and cannot take off since Anadolu is too small

Russia: Most probable.
For TuAF:
----Su30/Su-34/Su-35: Technically mature and on-the-shelf. Proved in real war.
----Su-57: The best one that available for TuAF in years if F-35 is still not available.
All Sukhoi fighters are heavy fighters, which means large combat radius, big payload and bigger radar (but Russian radars are not that good) which suits regional powers fine. In fact, Turkey needs heavy fighters like F-15 much more than F-16s, but US might not want a too powerful TuAF to influence the balance of ME.
For Anadolu:
----Su-33: Not for export and obsolete. J-15 is much newer.
----MiG-29k: Though way smaller than J-15/Su-33, but it may still not able to take off on Anadolu. Meanwhile India has share in MiG-29K program.
----Yak-141: An unfinished variant that capable of vertical take-off, though way too obsolete

EU and UK: Currently nothing
For TuAF:
JAS-39: not as capable as F-16
Typhoon or Rafael. No significant advantages against F-16.
For Anadolu:
Rafael-M. Not capable of short take-off and need ejectors.
======================================================================

So it seems the only option is Russian jets. Maybe buying Russian jets will result in further sanctions but so what?
Also, the biggest problem is for Anadolu. I can't find an alternative of F-35 for it.

Gripen-Maritime or sea gripen for anadolu it is just saab portofolio. Saab will make protitype if there is country want it. Saab want sell it to brazil

Also if TuAF really want Su-35 think wisely, it will became logistical nightmare. How TuAF operate F-16 and Su-35? They have different datalink, Turkey want change these aircraft datalink? Also turkish missile and weapon is designed to compatible with NATO aircraft (dont know but are bozdogan missile can compatible with su 35)

Also from my country airforce experience (with su 27 and su 30 also my country operating f16) using Su-27 and Su 30 we must send our russian aircarft to belaruss for routine maintenance also the cost more expensive to operate.

Hope if TuAF realy want Su35, they can fix lroblem like logistical nightmare, datalink, maintenence etc

(Just my opinion based what happen in my state thankyu)

 

[Glass]

^there are sanctions from western countries in place so every european fighter falls out, it remains to be seen what happens now with F35, i think there will be the last meetings now with the Americans but I dont think that they will be successful and then Turkey will duo to changing circumstances in the east med consider a purchase of a Russian fighter, which I believe will be the SU35.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Gripen-Maritime or sea gripen for anadolu it is just saab portofolio. Saab will make protitype if there is country want it. Saab want sell it to brazil

Also if TuAF really want Su-35 think wisely, it will became logistical nightmare. How TuAF operate F-16 and Su-35? They have different datalink, Turkey want change these aircraft datalink? Also turkish missile and weapon is designed to compatible with NATO aircraft (dont know but are bozdogan missile can compatible with su 35)

Also from my country airforce experience (with su 27 and su 30 also my country operating f16) using Su-27 and Su 30 we must send our russian aircarft to belaruss for routine maintenance also the cost more expensive to operate.

Hope if TuAF realy want Su35, they can fix lroblem like logistical nightmare, datalink, maintenence etc

(Just my opinion based what happen in my state thankyu)

Datalink is not a problem. Russia modified Slovakia's MiG-29 with NATO datalink. Also, Czech uses Gripen from Sweden and Sweden is of course not a NATO country.

 

[TheMightyBender]

Buying Non-Western fighters will be too much of a hassle at this point.

My best bet is that Turkey will do nothing until maturation of the TFX (~2025).

Scenario 1: TFX is a success
Turkey retires all its F-4’s. Some of the F-16’s receive upgrades (mostly structural) and the rest are retired. 200-300 TFX fighters are acquired.

Scenario 2: TFX is a failure or is seriously delayed but relations with Europe improve
Turkey joins one of the European fighter programs. Scenario 1 will be repeated except TFX fighters are replaced with European fighters.

Scenario 3: TFX is a failure or is seriously delayed and relations with the west break down
Turkey proposes partnership on Su-57 with the Russians (similar to India-Russia partnership). Scenario 1 will be repeated except TFX fighters are replaced with Su-57.


All this assumes that relations with the US don’t improve. If, in fact, relations with the US do improve, current plans will be implemented.