This is yet another ugly chart for China's demographic future

[Panda cat]

这玩意要翻墙？我没用那玩意
节日快乐，看三哥和猴仔犯傻更快乐

呵呵!开心就好,不翻墙怎么上facebook和youtubei

 

[AndrewJin]

This is storm in a tea cup. China has one of the youngest retirement age in the world, with women at 55 and men at 60. As people live longer and healthier, extending the retirement age by 10 years is entirely possible. On top of that, labor intensive jobs are increasingly being taken over by automation. There will be a lot fewer job positions required for the same output 20 years from now.

If simply having high birthrate is the ticket to prosperity, Africa countries would be some of the world's strongest power.

I am pretty sure, sub-Sahara Africa will soon surpass China!

 

[LOGICAL BOSSS]

@AndrewJin Even I am planning a visit to HongKong for Christmas

Everything available online try dhgate.com chinese e commerse site, I myself did shoping 3-4 times from it.

 

[AndrewJin]

work for young people, after all, young talent is the future of the country, uncle, aunt who can go to enjoy life, this is not good? There is no need to have money for their hard work.


Chinese people like to travel in developed countries

Not just developed countries, any country that can ensure safety and provide acceptable tourist infra.
Look at Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, etc, they are not developed yet, but they have attracted so many tourists.
@Gibbs @ahojunk
Australia's Lonely Planet Sri Lanka has Chinese version, updated every 2 years!

 

[nang2]

I feel chinese visit India very less for Tourism .

The sentiment of the destination country towards China plays a big role in choices of Chinese tourists. Consider the wide spread hostility in India media towards China, I suspect Chinese tourists may not have much inclination in visiting India. Visiting Nepal is more likely.

 

[LOGICAL BOSSS]

The sentiment of the destination country towards China plays a big role in choices of Chinese tourists. Consider the wide spread hostility in India media towards China, I suspect Chinese tourists may not have much inclination in visiting India. Visiting Nepal is more likely.

This could be a one of the reason but it means something like desire for Mercs. but settled with NANO.

 

[Jaanbaz]

No no no, some women at 50, some at 55.
Men some at 55, some at 60. (my father will be at 60)
In some factories, can be 45-50.
Very few Chinese will work after their retirement.
Normally when they reach that age, they are rich enough and have enough savings. see photos below.

@Emperor_of_Mankind
That's why you always see millions of Chinese uncles and aunties traveling crazily in the country and abroad.
This was even not during a public holiday or at weekends, see the faces, mostly 50s-60s year old retired people.
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This is good for the health, there is no reason to work yourself to death.

 

[Jlaw]

I am pretty sure, sub-Sahara Africa will soon surpass China!

Well Sub Saharan Africa has a better chance to do that than China's southern neighbour.

 

[AndrewJin]

Well Sub Saharan Africa has a better chance to do that than China's southern neighbour.

SSA is pretty promising, huge amount of young people, natural resources and above all highest fertility rate!
Now, many countries there are enjoying the fastest GDP growth!

 

[Gibbs]

I have heard of some of my friends have been to Nepal and Sri Lanka, but never heard of to India. No direct flight may be one reason.

Chinese Tourist Arrival to Sri Lanka Up 31.5 Pct in May

http://english.cri.cn/12394/2016/06/08/4203s930237.htm

China is going to be the biggest source of tourism numbers to the island in the near future, Buddhist pilgrim sites along with beach holidays are the main attractions, The numbers of people in the service industry learning Mandarin in Sri Lanka has gone up exponentially

 

[Mista]

Demographic dividend is going to more of a liability in the future if it is not managed well. What's more important is 'Educated demographic dividend', which I believe China is doing pretty well. The Chinese have lesser children, but they made sure they get at least a decent level of education. On the other hand, many South Asian and South-east Asian countries I see are having lots of children, but many are not going to school. Even those who attend only attend school a few years. Their parents explained that more children is better because they can work and help out the family after age 7, that's why they have like 5 children and still going. Got kinda pissed when I heard that in the documentary lol.

Robotics already exist, but it's still not cost effective for business. I give it another 2 decades for the technology to mature.
Automation is already creeping in though. Even China, which is more educated and has higher value-added manufacturing than India, is not spared. I read a few weeks ago that Foxconn just automated and cut 60K jobs in Kunshan, China. From 110K employees to 50K. I can't post the link yet. I think China still has a large surplus labour right now because many things are still done manually there although the technology already exists.

@Emperor_of_Mankind
That's why you always see millions of Chinese uncles and aunties traveling crazily in the country and abroad.
This was even not during a public holiday or at weekends, see the faces, mostly 50s-60s year old retired people.
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That's Jiuzhaigou right? I just visited it few weeks ago. I still remember vividly that sign in the first picture, the photo I took in the second picture, the crowd in the third picture, and the bridge in the fourth picture.

 

[dingyibvs]

We'll know in 2050 for sure if your disregard for humans will be of saving grace.

The Japanese have already made a wrong bet. They too faced exactly a situation like you in 80s, and they too kept beating the drums of automation, and technology; and now they consider it to be one of their biggest faults ever!

You may not admit it, but you are going on the path of Japanese, and ominously much sooner in your development cycle than the Japanese did.

As for jobs, there will always be people who won't be able to find jobs regardless of the size of economy. It is the right skill that gets a person a job. Right now China requires a lot of talent in many fields, like tech. It needs people with expertise in memory, with people who can handle robots etc.

At the end of the day, humans are also a machine, a machine which has come as a result of millions of years of evolution, and we are pretty good at adapting. Right now machines are not even close to us in terms of the flexibility of jobs that we can do, the cognitive ability etc.

Just because Japan failed doesn't mean China will. China is just entering middle income range and is already facing a surplus of labor and an unemployment crisis ahead. It'll only get worse for countries reaching the middle-income bracket later as robotics and AI are really starting to take off.

 

[AndrewJin]

Demographic dividend is going to more of a liability in the future if it is not managed well. What's more important is 'Educated demographic dividend', which I believe China is doing pretty well. The Chinese have lesser children, but they made sure they get at least a decent level of education. On the other hand, many South Asian and South-east Asian countries I see are having lots of children, but many are not going to school. Even those who attend only attend school a few years. Their parents explained that more children is better because they can work and help out the family after age 7, that's why they have like 5 children and still going. Got kinda pissed when I heard that in the documentary lol.

Robotics already exist, but it's still not cost effective for business. I give it another 2 decades for the technology to mature.
Automation is already creeping in though. Even China, which is more educated and has higher value-added manufacturing than India, is not spared. I read a few weeks ago that Foxconn just automated and cut 60K jobs in Kunshan, China. From 110K employees to 50K. I can't post the link yet. I think China still has a large surplus labour right now because many things are still done manually there although the technology already exists.



That's Jiuzhaigou right? I just visited it few weeks ago. I still remember vividly that sign in the first picture, the photo I took in the second picture, the crowd in the third picture, and the bridge in the fourth picture.

Yep, though the crowd was crazy, I will definitely visit Jiuzhaigou again, so many charming lakes that I had no time to fully explore and I also had no time for Huanglong and other natural wonders in Northern Sichuan. I will wait for Lanzhou-Chengdu Rapid Rail, then we can just take bullet train to the nearest tourist town(Chuanzhusi) which is only 1-2 hours from Jiuzhaigou by shuttle bus.

Lanzhou-Chengdu Rapid Rail （200km/h)
estimated travel time from Chengdu to Jiuzhaigou(nearest station), 2 HOURS!

I have to say, though the crowded was annoying, I was quite impressed by how they managed such huge amount of tourists and aunties and uncles.

Shuttle bus like every 1-2 minutes at main interchange stations?
I think at least 50% passengers of every bus were retired aunties and uncles.
It means, u will never find a time in the year without big crowed.
The difference of different seasons is how big the big crowd is!

Opening time!
7:30am, u would never know there were always thousands of tourists before you!

Closure time!
Aunties and uncles seemed not tired at all after returning back to the main gate!
I was totally exhausted!

 

[AndrewJin]

@ahojunk @Tiqiu Sorry I am doing it again.

The tourist village at the national park entrance is well-maintained, offering all kinds of hotels, hostels and family guesthouses. I only spent 250yuan per night for a very cosy double room with breakfast. And the owner(a bunch of passionate young graduates of hospitality born in 1990s!) drove us to and back from the park entrance on demand.

 

[Tiqiu]

@ahojunk @Tiqiu Sorry I am doing it again.

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I think my parents have already been to "九寨沟", but hey keep up posting those beautiful pictures.